ChosenOne21
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Posts posted by ChosenOne21
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13 hours ago, LA2 said:
We have a surplus of talented infielders and we don't need Urias for 3 years; I would guess that he peaked in 2022 and is most likely a utility infielder--albeit a good one--for the O's. I'd rather give him and Baker up--or, alternatively, Mateo and one of Akin or Baumann--than pay more than GIbson money for a starting pitcher.
I'm not saying the deal wouldn't make us a better team. I'm saying it's a pretty considerable overpay.
BTW, I think you're really undervaluing Baker. Above-average relief pitchers with four years of team control don't grow on trees. -
2 hours ago, LA2 said:
I actually would do Baker and Urias for Quintana in a heartbeat, but I don't see why the Mets would do it. (Ditto for two out of three of Mateo/Baumann/Akin and my belief the Mets wd not do it.)
You would trade a 2-3 WAR infielder with three more years of control and more for one year of a 3 WAR pitcher? I wouldn't.
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2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
Had an injury in spring training so he didn't get started til July. After that, he pitched to a solid 3.50 ERA, 1.6 WAR/1.5 fWAR with 7.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. When healthy he still seems to be a 3 WAR-ish level pitcher. Lefty making $13M with one year of control. Should cost practically nothing, Mets have incentive to cut payroll. Would reduce the pressure on Means to be that #3 LHP. Figure the two of them might combine for 200 IP when healthy. I don't reallly see a downside.
Would he be an upgrade over Gibson? Even if he is a lefty version of Gibson that could help.
What would be enough to get him? Could some combination of Urias/Mateo/Baumann/Akin/Baker do it? Maybe Horvath or lower prospects in the mix?
Two out of three of Mateo/Baumann/Akin would be pretty fair, but I doubt the Mets do that. Baker and Urias would be pretty significant overpays.
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Gotta love that our 30th best prospect has a chance to be a 4-pitch back of the rotation starter. Thanks again for all the writeups, Tony!
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I don't think we're going to win 101 again, but I think we're quite likely to win 95. Curtain for me, too.
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3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
The magical world of Wildcard where pitchers have the same ERA, year after year.
Unless they're free agents or on another team. Then there's too much risk they'll stink in an Orioles uniform.
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5 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:
Even if we didn't make an acquisition, we have...
Cole Irvin
DL Hall
Chayce McDermott
Cade Povich
Justin Armbruster
...All in the organization and any one of them can provide 15 decent starts. Maybe a combination of them can. I think we have to assume that the team would want to moderate John Means' innings count as well considering he's coming off Tommy John Surgery.
Personally, I am optimistic for DL Hall's career progress coming in 2024. I'm excited to see it. And Cole Irvin by himself is capable of providing 190 innings, as he has done so in 2 seasons before.
With the possible exception of Irvin, I don't want to be relying on any of those players to make starts next year. Now if one of them is blowing away AAA hitters as a starter and we have an opening, that's a different story.
This is what I meant when I said our AAA depth is a question mark. I don't think any of McDermott, Povich, or Armbruster are ML ready, and even if they become ready during the year there's no guarantee they hit the ground running.
Also, I'd say there's maybe a 5-10% chance at this point that DL Hall can/will be a ML starting pitcher. -
Just now, wildcard said:
Do you have any information that says they will have healthy seasons next year?
Do you have any information that says Bradish, Rodriguez, Means, Kremer and Wells will have healthy seasons next year?
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7 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Its was a safe bet to project that the O's would regress after 83 wins. And many did. But they won 101.
So what's your point? That the Orioles are usually/always going to do better than what would be prudent to predict?
And why is that exactly?
Look, I'm not saying you ARE wrong. I'm saying it would be good to sign a few pitchers in case you are.-
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11 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Do you feel good about giving 3 years to Giolito or 5'9" Stroman at 33 or Wacha or Lugo. There is risk in giving 3 year and 30m+ to pitchers. Kind of locks the manager in to starting them even if they are in decline.
I'm okay with three years on Giolito or Stroman. Stroman doesn't have any red flags I could find except that his walk rate went up last year. FIP thinks he was better last year than the year before when his walk rate was lower though. I'm inclined to believe Giolito's last twelve starts were somewhat of an aberration, and I think our pitching development staff can get him back on track.
Wacha is in a similar position to Stroman with an elevated walk rate last year, but still good results. He's got less of a track record though. Wouldn't hate two years with an option.
Lugo's numbers look pretty good, but he's the oldest of the bunch and was only a dedicated starter for the first time since 2017 last year. I'd prefer not to go three years on him, but it wouldn't be the worst thing. Could probably be moved to the pen just fine if he can't start.
There's some risk there, but there's also risk relying on our current group to stay healthy and effective. Also note that Means is gone after next year, so we're going to have to find someone to replace him eventually.4 minutes ago, wildcard said:That is not what either pitcher projects. GRod was the #1 pitcher in the minors and found his control in the 2nd half. No reason to believe he is going anywhere but up. Bradish showed he is one the best starters in baseball last season. That is how they project for 2024.
I am all for more quality pitching. But its cost and has risk that coming with it. Especially when the O's would give up prospects that would be a big part of their future.
There's plenty of reason to believe he won't improve on his second half next year. Sophomore slumps are real things that happen, he could get hurt, he hasn't been the picture of consistency in his career. The future is bright, but that doesn't mean he's going to be an ace next year.
Bradish was one of the best starters in baseball LAST SEASON. His track record is one mediocre year and one great year. I think he will be excellent, and could be a top pitcher again next year, but I think the safe bet is to project some regression. -
1 minute ago, wildcard said:
How many teams have two #1 for the next 5 years like GRod and Bradish?
I love both those guys, but this is premature. GRod had an ERA of, what, 4.70 on the year (much better in the second half). He could easily sophomore slump. There's a good chance that was Bradish's career year. It wouldn't shock me if he was more of a 3.50-3.70 guy going forward.
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We have 4.5 starters on paper, but it's pretty likely two of them miss considerable time with an injury. Our AAA starter depth is a pretty big question mark, so I would like it if we got another solid starter or even two.
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53 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:
Not in the Orioles situation with the readily available hitting assets in the minors, but I see what you're saying. I also don't think it's far off to trade Santander/Kjerstad/Norby for Bradish. 12 years of 1st division/potential all star plus one current 3-5 hitter.
That deal is massively lopsided. That's about half of what you'd have to trade for a pitcher with Bradish's level of skill with that many years of team control
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4 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:
I would do this for Miller.
You'd probably have to add someone like Povich/Fabian to that deal before the Mariners would consider it
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4 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:
Real life is a lot different than video games. Most real life GMs won't make a deal with a player just to trade them 3 weeks later.
These guys signed their offer with the Orioles under Mike Elias, so I don't see Elias jettisoning them until at least the conclusion of Spring Training. This is real life, not video games.
I mean, if someone came along and offered the moon for Mateo, Elias would pack his bags himself.
But you do have a point. If he tendered them a contract, he's probably at least interested in seeing what they do in spring training. -
I want some of whatever the guy who wrote the report on Norby's defense was on.
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I think he's a true talent 4.25-4.40 ERA guy who has shown some ability to outpitch his peripherals. I also think there's a 25% chance he finds more consistency and is a sub-4 ERA true talent guy.
I'm not ready to anoint him as a Jeremy Guthrie Outpitch Your Peripherals For Most Of Your Career Until You Suddenly Don't type just yet, but last year did provide additional evidence he could be that guy.
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Well, they didn't predict him to do what he did last year either.
I'd say it's at least 50% likely Kyle Bradish is top 25 in ERA next year. His FIP was 3.27 last year. Even if he's half a run above that he's top 25 on that list.
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I think we'd be pretty lucky if one out of Hall, McDermott, Povich, Johnson ends up being a solid MLB starter, and very lucky if they start being one this upcoming season
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
Like DJ Stewart?
Elias didn't draft him?
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5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Would be very intrigued by a Cowser, Westburg/Ortiz, Mountcastle, Kremer, Norby and Povich for Cease and Robert deal.
I'd do it. O's probably have to give a little more though. Probably have to add DL Hall or someone eqivalent
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6 hours ago, LookinUp said:
Ortiz, Cowser, (pitcher), and someone like Johnny Rhodes or maybe even Norby would make a ton of sense for both sides.
This is an overpay according to baseball trade values at least. They have:
Ortiz: 13.8M
Cowser: 37.4M
Povich: 5.1M
Rhodes 2M
Cease: 44.8M-
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There's "It didn't work out" and "Really should have known better" when it comes to trades, and Heim was 100% "It didn't work out." It took him, what, six years and four organizations after we traded him to be anything? Like Corn said, there was like a .1% chance of him being a good starting MLB catcher. If I recall, the book on Heim said he had a chance to be a good backup catcher if he could hit a little more.
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Rob Deer as a plus defensive centerfielder would be a hell of a player.
Orioles #30 Prospect Brandon Young - RHP
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Shades of Alex Wells?