LookinUp

Yeah. Looks like #1 for our org.

Sure looks like it. AR #1 prospect in baseball per BA.

Perez was just interviewed and said they’d be giving out large international bonuses. It’s not a complete $$ cutoff.

Pretty Cool.

If that's the case, that they were really only here a few weeks, I agree that it's not worth fretting too much over. Tony's other points about finding our own Yaz are good ones I think, but my concern was over losing an impact guy in the first place without knowing it. If that's on Duq, fine. I thought Elias was here longer.

I think the point that Tony and I are trying to make that people might not get is this. If there's one case where you want to know what you missed and why you missed it, it's the case of the player who suddenly becomes a big time impact guy when he leaves. I don't care about his age. I care what he became. If I lose Yaz, I want to know exactly why I lost him. That doesn't mean the decision itself was bad, but it needs to be understood. It's really another Jake Arrieta case. He was given a million chances here and never panned out. Leaves, gets different opinions and blows up. I want to know why. In hindsight, it's clear that former group of Orioles baseball people were never going to get Arrieta to succeed here. That was a problem. It's also a problem if we have a guy like Yaz and can't get him to succeed here. A big problem that I want to know the answer to.

I feel like the next 3 are Smith, Zimmerman and Stowers in some order. I went Stowers first, but it's a guess. Feel like Bannon is a little lower, Servideo could be anywhere and Nevin is probably comparable to Bannon (at least in terms of most likely FV). I'm still hoping Welk and an international player or two make big jumps in the next year, but Covid just screwed all of that up for the time being. [Edit: A guy that might have made a decent jump in the org's eye is Cumberland. There was some hope when we got him, but his performance wasn't all that good. Seems like this wasn't actually a lost year for him. There's a decent shot he's AR's backup in a year or two.]

I don’t think he should have had much of a chance. I wish we were smart enough to see it coming. That’s whT I’m disappointed in and what I don’t want to happen in the future.

Probably true. In fairness, Tony said 17-25 could be placed many ways. Small preferences could move a guy several spots.

I simply disagree re: Yaz. Re: Smith, I assume they had some scouting/analytic reason to think the bat could be plus. There's no way they actually considered fielding as important, or they wouldn't have taken that flyer. If they didn't even know his fielding was atrocious and only thought they could piece together a solid bat/fielder, then it was a massive failure. I really think they were taking a flyer on a potential impact bat though because it's hard to believe they weren't aware of his defense. It just turned out that he wasn't the bat they hoped.

I think one of the strength's of Tony's lists are that they don't over hype most guys. Tony has never over-sold Hall, I assume for the reasons mentioned above. I don't think he's being unreasonably critical though. He's basically saying that yeah, he's good, but he has real stuff to improve upon for his profile to play against better competition. It's sobering, which is good.

Nice post. I feel like we already have 1-3 of those top 30 guys, but don't know it yet. 5 to 8 is reasonable, and may be on the low end in the future. I know this is happening at a snail's pace, but it's also what we were told to expect. It's kind of eye opening for me. Fixing a baseball org is like turning a cruise ship. I feel like we're well on the way, to be honest.

Sure hope we're not looking at another Yaz situation. /trolling of SG and CoC

Tony, I love that you're referring to this spot on the list as high. In year's past, this was no man's land. Now it's actually a sign that you have a shot. That's awesome.

You're smarter than this, SG. I'm not advocating that the FO keep old failed minor leaguers in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. I'm advocating that they understand what they missed so they can capitalize on those assets in the future. If you don't think it was a process failure, I don't know what to say. You're essentially saying a 27 y.o. isn't worth the energy. I'm saying that 27 year old can be a 22-23 year old with similar issues in the future, and I don't want us to miss him.

That's not how a smart, analytic organization thinks. It's reasonable, but lazy. The whole goal is to try to tap potential. They didn't. I'm not killing them for it. I agree that it happens to every org. Still, as my other post said, I'd still want to know what they missed and why they missed it, or at least I'd like them to understand that.

I agree that you can't blame the O's for giving up on Yaz. I still would like them to take the time on trying to understand what they missed. That's just due diligence.

Went Bradish/Smith on nice reports on both. Could easily make a case for Hall and Zimmerman here too. Only one on the list that doesn't seem to belong is Nevin, IMO, though I'm guessing Stowers' ranking will be below Hall's based on last year. They were right next to each other though, so a good/bad report or two could change the order I guess.

Here for upside over performance. Would be amazing if he realizes his potential.

A lot of us are dreaming on this kid. Seems like he has a shot to be really good. Hope that arm strength thing isn't real over time. I get why he's pretty low on the list though. Doesn't have amazing pedigree, is very young and like everyone else he hasn't played much over the last year. So we're basically dreaming on a kid who looked good over relatively SSS. That mutes the enthusiasm a bit, but he apparently did look really good.

Damn, I really touched a nerve just by bringing up Yaz. Here's what I think about him: 1. Yes, he's one who got away. Yes, it happens to every franchise. Yes, that's to be expected. 2. I just read what he said within the last week. He was clear that the O's wanted him to do things a certain way. For whatever reason, it wouldn't work for him. 3. I think it's entirely reasonable to wonder if a data-driven regime that focuses on things like launch angle and probabilities would be somewhat inflexible in finding a solution for an individual which doesn't align with their preferences. After all, if they teach Yaz a different way, their models say the odds of success go down. On the other hand, the actual odds of success doing things with Yaz their way were evidently zero. So, their choice became try Yaz's preferred low-odds approach, or go after a different guy using their preferred approach. I'm not obsessing here. The O's are implementing an approach to improve the odds of success across hundreds of players. I'm ok with that, but it's quite possible that their approach led them to miss on a guy who doesn't fit their models cleanly.

I wonder if Hanifee is a Yaz type of prospect whose path may not align with the preferred methods employed by our guys. I wonder if they have a plan B for guys like that. (not that I have enough information to conclude that Hanifee is definitely not a guy who can click with this regime, a la Yaz)

Completely understand. Some of this is preference. Some of it is how you weigh upper level production versus upside. I agree that the order of these lists is less important than the write-up.

I feel like a plus change is a must without good velocity. The breaking ball has a different shape, so it's less likely to screw up timing the way a change does. Just my theory/2 cents.

Really nice guy to have in the system. If his velocity ticks up, you're looking at a Means-like upside. As I mentioned in the Wells thread, I'd move Wells down if it were my list. Rom is a guy who fits well about here though, IMO. Could be a fringy prospect that's highly dependent on pitchability, or a guy with a little velocity becomes a higher-rated guy.