LookinUp
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Posts posted by LookinUp
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Do we know why Josh Liranzo isn't playing yet?
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On 5/25/2024 at 11:21 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:
I think Elias is scarred from Houston's failure with pitching in the 1st round. A failure of a 1:1 pitching pick and another 1:1 pitcher who refused to sign will do that.
Maybe not. He took a very risky pick last year. Basically found some tools that will carry his floor, but needed a lot to go right to get to the ceiling. A big upside arm could be similar, having a reliever floor if healthy but needing some development to get to the ceiling.
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There are some localish kids who I always wondered if they'd go this path. The question though is how good do you have to be to make this worth it?
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
You could be right but Creed just turned 21 one week ago so he’d be one of the youngest college players in this draft. Since we have no idea what kind of numbers Creed would put up in college let’s do a reverse lookup. In 2022 both Keven Parada and Daniel Susan were first round catchers. In their first full season at age 22, Parada put up a .787 OPS in 87 games. Susac put up an .810 OPS in 97 games. Willems at a year younger has a .773 OPS in 47 games.
Tony just said he's still a prospect. I'm sure whatever draft position he would fall to would be highly dependent on how he actually performed in college. Maybe he would still be uncompetitive against lefties, or maybe he would have faced some guys that were easy to barrel.
It really doesn't matter. I liked the post about him being a 1 level a year guy. It doesn't have to be precisely correct to get the point across. Crede Willems is not an elite prospect, but he's a guy who could continue to develop and have a ML career if his development goes well. You love to have that in this org, particularly at catcher and on a timeline at least a year+ behind Basallo.
Hopefully he just keeps putting in the work.
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Etzel getting to AA before Bradfield tells me he's taken the lead at the quarter pole. That doesn't mean he'll win the race in the end, but Bradfield has been passed.
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For those (like me) wondering how the stuff relates to these results, here's Tony's write-up from the offseason. I'd wager from the results that some of his stuff has improved. Here's hoping he also got a tick or two more on the fastball and improved feel for the secondaries.
Quote47. Edgar Portes – RHP (A-): This 6-foot-2 right-hander repeated Delmarva with solid improvements including increasing his strikeout percentage, lowering his walk percentage, and improving the quality of his slider. His fastball sits 92-93 and tops around 94. His slider is his best pitch, but it's still in inconsistent offering though he can get swings and misses on the pitch. He has a change and was working on a curveball at times, but he doesn't have much feel for either. His command still has a long way to go and he needs to improve the change up to have a better chance to defend himself against lefties who put up a .788 OPS against him.
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16 hours ago, baltfan said:
I don’t think Woood sees the big leagues until September. No reason for them to bring him up.
Oh, there's already pressure to bring him up. I think he's dealing with a minor injury now, but if he's healthy and playing, I'd wager they'll almost be forced to bring him up in July.
The Nationals are low-key good and have a few really nice prospects on the way.
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53 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
Forret is kind of shaping up for me as a good run so far of what Carter Baumler was meant to be.
Curse you for even mentioning them in the same sentence!
I don't expect lightning in a bottle with this kid. Just hope for health and continued development. I'm sure he'll have some ups and downs as he moves up the ladder.
Good luck in Aberdeen, Forret!
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3 hours ago, RZNJ said:
When you’re a player you should be thinking “what if that was me”.
And when you're a competitor, you think I'm not going to interfere with him, but I'm definitely not helping him either because I want to win and (sometimes) I don't want to hurt myself helping the other guy.
I'm not saying you're all wrong, but we shouldn't ignore that competitors want to win and don't usually want to help the opponent unless there's an obvious injury. For something like this that happened so quickly, in real time, I don't really think it falls into that category.
After when someone that gets hit in the head or otherwise has a bad injury is where you really see all players being in a brotherhood.
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4 hours ago, emmett16 said:
He would make me nervous coming in to pitch in a tight game.
I agree with this. He might be a valuable bullpen arm, but I'm not sure he's a backend guy even with the great stuff.
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29 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:
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So the cycle is Jackson will make the adjustments needed to catch up to high velo and once he does the league will adjust. After that it is a back and forth but the best hitters end up with the least amount of holes in their swings. Hopefully after this first adjustment by Jackson he will be well equipped to handle the next league adjustment.
Not that I disagree with your post, but the batting average alone would indicate that Holliday hasn't fixed enough to really flourish in AAA, not to mention the majors. Note, I'm assuming he doesn't have some ridiculously low BABIP even with good LD%, for example.
I don't doubt that the kid will eventually be a really good ball player, but I'm starting to wonder how much of that will happen this season.
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2 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:
Norby pinch hit for in the 3rd inning today.
Weird.
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
I doubt that this organization is not prioritizing defense.
I get the feeling that teams at all levels prioritize hitting from a player acquisition perspective.
Once they acquire the players, sure they work on defense. I think that explains what we're seeing in this org. You can teach a hitter to be a good defender easier, in theory, than you can teach a good defender to be a future major league level hitter.
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
Maybe, but Delmarva’s defense is second worst in the Carolina League and way below league average.
I follow baseball on much lower levels than we usually talk about here. That said, I see some of the best high school teams around routinely looking pretty bad in the field. I'm sure they work on it, but it really seems like the kids that rake the most get onto the field, and those kids very often didn't grow up with really good defensive fundamentals (footwork, positioning, situational stuff).
I wouldn't be shocked if Delmarva's team isn't filled with kids like that. I'm sure player development sees it and will prioritize it.
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On 5/8/2024 at 2:36 PM, Tony-OH said:
He threw 12 cutters:
8 had 0-7 inches of Horizontal movement and 23-30 Vertical movement
4 had 12-19 inches of Horizontal movement and 30-33 Vertical movement...
Tony, this was in AAA, and AAA uses the major league ball now, right?
If so, whoa!
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15 hours ago, RZNJ said:
You hit the nail on the head on both counts. Atrocious infield defense.
Sometimes I get the feeling that most baseball coaches expect other levels of baseball to teach these kids how to play defense. It's such a game about pitching and hitting. I feel like defense doesn't get the practice time, and innovation, it deserves.
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23 hours ago, Frobby said:
But the "Billy Boxscore" stuff was irritating, and he should have stopped when you told him to.
I can't be the only one who though Billy Boxscore was message board gold, was I? Don't get me wrong. He was over the top. He basically posted like an angry boomer who got onto the internets for the first time. I'm happy that Tony put an end to it (even though I did find a couple of his posts very interesting).
But Billy Boxscore, when referring to SG, was just hilarious to me.
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31 minutes ago, deward said:
Beavers had 156 PA in AA last year.
Ugh. Stupid BBref site sorts different than I expected. I didn't see that he played there last year, and clearly forgot.
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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:
For his Cleveland years, he was .303/.379. He had years where he hit .325, .349, .333. In 1994, the year he hit .349 and was a 7.2 WAR player...in a strike shortened year. He was 4th in MVP because Frank Thomas was in his prime, Griffey Jr was on pace to break the home run record and Albert Belle was driving in a lot of runs and he hit .357, too.
As your post illustrates, Lofton played in an entirely different offensive era too. Expectations for Bradfield need to be in the context of today's game.
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On 5/8/2024 at 9:51 AM, ChuckS said:
There is some projection there. Tough not to imagine him not being a 20 HR guy in Baltimore. If he can maintain a high average/OBP that is definitely good enough to start in a corner with his defense.
I don't doubt Tony's assessment of tools, but I'm not as down on Beavers' as this thread seems to be. Remember, he was always the guy who had the physical stature but hadn't gotten to his power yet. It was always supposed to be the last tool to come.
I also don't want to over react to small sample sizes here. Beavers is in AA for the first time this year. Yes, numbers tend to go up there, but it's also been April/May weather, first time in the league, etc etc.
With all of that said, he has 3 HR and 5 2B in 25 games. Over 150 game season, that's 18 HR and 30 2B. That's his pace while playing his first games in AA in relatively cold weather.
If he can turn into that type of hitter at the ML level and play plus defense at the corners, he'll be a very valuable player. That's not easy to do, and the profile is different from the power potential that all of Cowser, Kjerstad and Stowers have, but it's still useful, and there's still time for more power to come through.
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10 hours ago, Dunk35 said:
I struggle to see it with this kid. He is 22 and has a .650 OPS in High A. He can have great defense and speed tools but his hit tool just is so far away.
There are several guys on his own team with better numbers at younger ages. Guys like Etzel, Jalen Vasquez, Josenberger all with better numbers at younger ages.
Its a long year so hopefully he turns it on but he needs to be producing at this age in A ball.
I actually tend to agree re: having skepticism, but I think a little perspective is in order.
The O's knew the hitting profile they were drafting. They just drafted him in the middle of last summer. He's in his first full year of minor league ball. He's playing in a league where a lot of our guys have struggled. Everyone knew significant swing changes were part of his plan. Even with all of that backdrop, as others have pointed out, he's not really doing that bad.
So we're less than a year out (much less in baseball days) and we're going to start drawing conclusions about a guy we knew had to develop? At this point, I think Bradfield and the O's deserve a grace period to let the kid develop. It's just waaaaay too early to draw any conclusions, IMO. I've never seen Kenny Lofton potential, but that doesn't mean he can't turn into a first division CF for many years.
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OPACY is tougher to get to now as well after the Key Bridge accident. 95 and 295 north are a nightmare.
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42 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
The leg kick nothing to do with the length of swing. The swing starts when the front heel drops (after whatever stride/load mechanism is used).
You might be technically correct. I don't know.
The reason I feel the way I do is because the leg kick tends to mean that more weight is shifted to the backside leg. When I say it lengthens the swing, I mean it lengthens the time, not the path. It's like you're digging out of a hole to get that weight shifted.
Obviously that's probably more of a youth problem than a Jackson Holliday problem, but I feel like I've seen his swing (when it wasn't working) before, and that's the problem I've seen.
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20 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Probably not quite that high but if he’s going to be a big K guy, miss bats, keep the walks down and throw a ton of GBs, that’s basically the dream profile.
Now, he obviously has a ways to go and personally, I agree with Tony that he needs to go Aberdeen but the profile is what you want.
For some reason I wasn't seeing him as a K guy. I guess that's just not how I think of ground ball pitchers. He is currently at 14k per 9 though, so that's awesome.
Phillies series is going to be fun
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Fixed that for you.
By the way, they are a business. They should care about money.