LookinUp
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Posts posted by LookinUp
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4 hours ago, Yossarian said:
If he's getting 2900 rpm on the slider, that's near elite level spin rate. How is his control? The walks seem a little high, but the WHIP is low so he's not giving up a lot of hits
Like most pitchers with big stuff, I'm pretty sure his command is his biggest issue. Starter upside, but probably a bullpen guy in time. (my opinion)
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11 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:
I told you that your prediction of a Yankees sweep, while killing us at the same time, was the best reverse lock bet I have ever seen.
You are that bad.
You are a good guy, but way way too emotional when it comes to sports.
I didn't fly or drive to Vegas but I did paypal my cousin in MI and bet $1500 on the O's today.
And I will do the same tomorrow. You are that much of an anti lock jinx bet. I would normally tell you to stop posting but like George Constanza, if you hate their chance to win? They likely will win.I've posted here for something like 20 years and don't remember 1 post from Roy that picks a fight with another poster like yours does here.
Make the reverse lock point. Calm down. Enjoy the victory. Cash your likely imaginary check and enjoy the ride.
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He’s not right.
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@Tony-OHhave you had a chance to see or hear anything about Cam Weston yet? Is there real upside or is this an older guy who's maybe more advanced than his league?
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On 4/22/2024 at 2:34 PM, Tony-OH said:
Mordan can hit a little bit but doesn't have a position.
This is disappointing to hear.
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Nolan McLean should have signed.
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10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Was he delayed? Did that hurt his development?
It's my opinion that he was rushed through the minors. It wasn't just about the decision to promote him this year. It was about pushing him so quickly through AA first.
That said, I think it was easily justifiable to handle it like the O's did. I'm not mad about it at all. I just think Holliday never got the benefit of being at a level long enough to work on the nuances of his game, certainly not at 2b, but also to see how others pitched to him after seeing him before.
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Saying all of this, if Holliday gets a hit and a walk tonight and looks comfortable, I'm not necessarily making the change. If he looks totally lost still, I would. Tonight.
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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
No it doesn’t. Needing additional development and being rushed are 2 different things.
And btw, that additional development could happen at this level.
Without getting into the semantics of whether or not he was rushed, I think getting to the major leagues and having better advanced scouts and better players expose your weaknesses can be a very real thing. I think that's part of what's happening with Jackson.
I also think he could identify those weaknesses and work on them in AAA. Not that it absolutely needs to happen there, but that it almost certainly can.
I do think there can be downside to failing miserably, in the spotlight, over time. He's a kid. A prodigy, yes, but still a kid. The O's wouldn't be wrong to figure out how to protect him and help him get over this hiccup.
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4 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:
So who goes when Hays comes back if Heston hits? I also will wonder if Heston gets enough ABs ?
Million dollar question. There are too many good pros to put on the roster. I suppose that's a great problem to have. Maybe they start putting guys who struggle on the DL? lol
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25 minutes ago, Sydnor said:
The projection systems aren’t everything, but ZIPS for example projects Santander to have a wRC+ of 119, Mountcastle 110, Cowser 99, and Kjerstad 98.
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I’m not including Hays in this because I think Cowser has already replaced him, but I do think replicating what Mountcastle and Santander will provide is more difficult than a lot of people think.
1. I'm not familiar with how ZIPS projects prospects versus established pros, but it seems like they dock the prospects a bit. I don't know that though.
2. The broader point is the profile of guys that Elias is going after versus the guys that previous regimes went after. Elias' guys have hit tools and power similar to Santander and Mountcastle, but they tend to have better swing decisions and higher OBPs. That's why I project them to be better. That's why the O's projected them to be better.
With all of that said, it's not like Mountcastle/Santander/Mullins/Hays aren't all under the same tutelage as everyone else at this point. It stands to reason that they can improve in those swing decision areas too, which I agree does make it a closer call.
Then you consider the cheaper contracts of the new guys and it's less close again, IMO.
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45 minutes ago, deward said:
Better than Santander is a higher bar than some people seem to think. HK or Cowser will have had a really nice rookie year if they can accomplish that.
I'm not crushing Santander either, but he's a career .765 OPS guy. It was .797 last year. His only year over .800 was the Covid year. He plays average defense. Not a butcher, but not exactly rangy out there.
Long story short, I think you can get similar power with more OBP from Kjerstad and Cowser with similar defense for Kjerstad and better for Cowser.
So yes, I'd say they'll be better than Santander.
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I will not be shocked if Kjerstad forces himself into the lineup. LH or not, he and Cowser are better than Hays and probably Santander. There will be a timeshare for sure, and it could take a minute, but Kjerstad could be an even better hitter than Cowser.
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19 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
I disagree that he was rushed, he's was and is that good.
I think he can be rushed and also be "that good." Both things can be true.
I'm not trying to crush the kid. I'm just trying to be realistic. He's swimming in deep water right now. I don't think we're really helping him by throwing him to the sharks. I do concede that they could stick with him for another month, he could break out of this and all could be great. I just think doing so pretty much guarantees a guy who isn't great, and might be significantly below average, offensively or defensively on the field during that time. I mean, he's been up 2 weeks and has a -0.5 rWAR.
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2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
This team is good enough to win with Holliday, Norby, or Urias at 2B. I think the thought of staying with Holliday is that he has the highest ceiling by far of the 3. And if you can get him going so that by the end of the season he is ready for "take off", he gives you that one additional weapon that Norby nor Urias are.
IMO, there are several issues with turning to Norby to replace Holliday now.
1) He has no long term place on this team. So you are in effect starting his Major League clock unnecessarily, when he most likely has more value to another org if he stays at AAA and can start his MLB clock on their choosing.
2) What if he struggles? Then what? Do you turn back to Holliday? If he struggles, it may damage his trade value.
3) What if Holliday regains his stroke at AAA? What do you do then even if Norby has managed to do a decent job or even a good job? Do you keep Holliday for the rest of the year?
4) And to me this is the biggest - What is the best use of his value? To be a bench player here long term? Or to be part of a trade that brings the Major League team something that it needs (in the pitching department)?
We know that there will have to be tough roster decisions with this team in the near future. Is the plan to put those off until the offseason no matter what? If that's the plan, you might see a rationale for keeping the status quo. At the same time, I'd be fine with making one or two of those decisions by the deadline.
But let's be honest here, you're talking about the risk with one player (Norby) by making the change I'm saying to make. It's not going to derail the future of this team or even his trade value.
At the same time, I think they're doing Holliday a disservice. He only played 36 games in AA, and half that in AAA, last year. They didn't even give those leagues the chance to adjust to him. I really, honestly, think they've rushed the kid. I think he's showing that he's not ready offensively, or even defensively at 2B. Heck, I think he's overhyped in general even though I definitely see him eventually as an above average 2B and top of the league leadoff hitter. But he's not the uber athlete, big powerful MOO bat that someone like a Gunnar is. He's more of Jeter profile. That's wonderful, but it's not an ARod profile either and Jeter did what he did with 10/10 intangibles.
I think there's more to gain by getting the extra year of service time and making sure he's ready, and I think that way outweighs the risks of losing some value on a guy like Norby.
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18 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
He's looked really off balanced and out of sorts and his hits have been a lot ground balls.
I know it goes without saying, but if you're off balance, you don't have power. He probably needs to get back to focusing on his foundation...the basics. I still have no doubt about this kid, disappointing start notwithstanding.
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19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
This is all very simple. We are just blessed to have Elias and his team here in Baltimore.
I started a thread 2 or 3 years ago saying we should give Elias 10 years and $100 million. I was basically ridiculed.
I'm not sure he'd take that offer at this point.
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54 minutes ago, SilentJames said:
Sending Jackson down does nothing, there is nothing left to prove down there. He is taking good ABs, he is working counts, he looks fine in the field etc. I have used the Cowser comp, not to say he should be sent down, in the sense that Cowser looked particularly lost at times during his callup last year. Jackson is facing some professional adversity for the first time as a professional keep running him out there.
The fortunate thing is he isn't hurting the team in a significant way right now, and when it finally does click the Orioles will be just that much better.
I think it's silly to say he has nothing left to prove in AAA and equally silly to say he's not hurting the ML team right now. He is definitely hurting us. We're just good enough to overcome it right now.
Holliday barely had a cup of coffee in AAA. He was only ok at the end of last year in AAA (.796 OPS) and had good stats when everyone on the team had over a 1.000 OPS against the lame White Sox team early this year. He also barely had a cup of coffee at 2B. Most importantly, he looks broken right now.
There's every reason to put him into a position where he can decompress and find his legs again. While he's at it, he can figure out how not to drop his hands so he can compete at the top of the zone, and he can get more comfortable at 2b.
I love the kid and believe that he'll be as great as they say, but I definitely believe he was rushed in relation to how Elias has really made sure the other guys are more ready before promoting them. Nobody else got the Holliday treatment, and I don't think they should.
I would demote him and give Norby a shot, effective tomorrow.
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8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
I'm guessing Kjerstad RF tomorrow with Santander DH to give him some rest.
Gunnar SS, Adley C, Santnader DH, O'Hearn 1B, Westburg 3B, Cowser LF, Mullins CF, Kjerstad RF, Holliday 2B
My goodness, what a lineup. I hope everyone is taking a second to smell the roses. This is rare even with Holliday's struggles, and Mayo/Basallo aren't even hear yet.
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You have to wonder how long this guy can stick. It would be a very Orioles thing to find this guy out of nowhere and have him be a legitimate number three starter for most of the year.
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1 minute ago, deward said:
I wouldn't be counting on Basallo just yet. He's not lighting Bowie on fire right now. Not that he can't or won't get going soon, but next year would be an aggressive timetable for a 19 year old.
You have to assume McCann would be gone. Not necessarily though.
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13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
O’Hearn has a team option at a very affordable price. If he hits (like he has been since he has been here), it is likely that he will stay.
Kjerstad will likely slot in for Santander and that still leaves a place to be found for Mayo. Both of those players are ahead of Norby. And then there is Basallo who will be ready for promotion some time next year.
Now if you are okay with trading one of them then that’s one thing. But saying that things are perfectly aligned for Norby, I don’t get it. We already have a very crowded MLB roster (for position players). And there are 4 other prospects (including Holliday) ahead of Norby.
I actually didn't realize that O'Hearn had a $7.5 million option in 2025. Just cheap enough to pick up, just expensive enough to move.
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2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:
The issue for me is not his ability with the bat in his hands. It is the lack of starting pitching talent/depth throughout the org. And what that will look like if/when Burnes leaves via free agency.
This time next year, there's a fair chance that all of Urias, Santander (switch hitter) and O'Hearn won't be on the roster. Add in that Hays will be getting expensive and there's a lot of opportunity for a very cheap and very good Norby to have a spot on this team. It's just next year.
I know that's not the timeline that people are thinking about, but Elias has it tee'd up for Norby if he wants to go that route.
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This is why I was against the Burnes trade. I could turn out to be wrong even only having him for one year, but I would have rather got a guy with a few years of control.
I agree though. You really can't extend him at what he's going to ask for.
I think the Yankees will destroy Oriole pitching this week...
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Who knows, maybe he lives in a state without online sports betting, has the means to lay $1,500 on the money line of a baseball game and actually believes that Roy's posting is indicative of the Orioles' performance.
But I kind of doubt it.