LookinUp
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Posts posted by LookinUp
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19 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
I disagree that he was rushed, he's was and is that good.
I think he can be rushed and also be "that good." Both things can be true.
I'm not trying to crush the kid. I'm just trying to be realistic. He's swimming in deep water right now. I don't think we're really helping him by throwing him to the sharks. I do concede that they could stick with him for another month, he could break out of this and all could be great. I just think doing so pretty much guarantees a guy who isn't great, and might be significantly below average, offensively or defensively on the field during that time. I mean, he's been up 2 weeks and has a -0.5 rWAR.
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2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
This team is good enough to win with Holliday, Norby, or Urias at 2B. I think the thought of staying with Holliday is that he has the highest ceiling by far of the 3. And if you can get him going so that by the end of the season he is ready for "take off", he gives you that one additional weapon that Norby nor Urias are.
IMO, there are several issues with turning to Norby to replace Holliday now.
1) He has no long term place on this team. So you are in effect starting his Major League clock unnecessarily, when he most likely has more value to another org if he stays at AAA and can start his MLB clock on their choosing.
2) What if he struggles? Then what? Do you turn back to Holliday? If he struggles, it may damage his trade value.
3) What if Holliday regains his stroke at AAA? What do you do then even if Norby has managed to do a decent job or even a good job? Do you keep Holliday for the rest of the year?
4) And to me this is the biggest - What is the best use of his value? To be a bench player here long term? Or to be part of a trade that brings the Major League team something that it needs (in the pitching department)?
We know that there will have to be tough roster decisions with this team in the near future. Is the plan to put those off until the offseason no matter what? If that's the plan, you might see a rationale for keeping the status quo. At the same time, I'd be fine with making one or two of those decisions by the deadline.
But let's be honest here, you're talking about the risk with one player (Norby) by making the change I'm saying to make. It's not going to derail the future of this team or even his trade value.
At the same time, I think they're doing Holliday a disservice. He only played 36 games in AA, and half that in AAA, last year. They didn't even give those leagues the chance to adjust to him. I really, honestly, think they've rushed the kid. I think he's showing that he's not ready offensively, or even defensively at 2B. Heck, I think he's overhyped in general even though I definitely see him eventually as an above average 2B and top of the league leadoff hitter. But he's not the uber athlete, big powerful MOO bat that someone like a Gunnar is. He's more of Jeter profile. That's wonderful, but it's not an ARod profile either and Jeter did what he did with 10/10 intangibles.
I think there's more to gain by getting the extra year of service time and making sure he's ready, and I think that way outweighs the risks of losing some value on a guy like Norby.
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18 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
He's looked really off balanced and out of sorts and his hits have been a lot ground balls.
I know it goes without saying, but if you're off balance, you don't have power. He probably needs to get back to focusing on his foundation...the basics. I still have no doubt about this kid, disappointing start notwithstanding.
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19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
This is all very simple. We are just blessed to have Elias and his team here in Baltimore.
I started a thread 2 or 3 years ago saying we should give Elias 10 years and $100 million. I was basically ridiculed.
I'm not sure he'd take that offer at this point.
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54 minutes ago, SilentJames said:
Sending Jackson down does nothing, there is nothing left to prove down there. He is taking good ABs, he is working counts, he looks fine in the field etc. I have used the Cowser comp, not to say he should be sent down, in the sense that Cowser looked particularly lost at times during his callup last year. Jackson is facing some professional adversity for the first time as a professional keep running him out there.
The fortunate thing is he isn't hurting the team in a significant way right now, and when it finally does click the Orioles will be just that much better.
I think it's silly to say he has nothing left to prove in AAA and equally silly to say he's not hurting the ML team right now. He is definitely hurting us. We're just good enough to overcome it right now.
Holliday barely had a cup of coffee in AAA. He was only ok at the end of last year in AAA (.796 OPS) and had good stats when everyone on the team had over a 1.000 OPS against the lame White Sox team early this year. He also barely had a cup of coffee at 2B. Most importantly, he looks broken right now.
There's every reason to put him into a position where he can decompress and find his legs again. While he's at it, he can figure out how not to drop his hands so he can compete at the top of the zone, and he can get more comfortable at 2b.
I love the kid and believe that he'll be as great as they say, but I definitely believe he was rushed in relation to how Elias has really made sure the other guys are more ready before promoting them. Nobody else got the Holliday treatment, and I don't think they should.
I would demote him and give Norby a shot, effective tomorrow.
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8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
I'm guessing Kjerstad RF tomorrow with Santander DH to give him some rest.
Gunnar SS, Adley C, Santnader DH, O'Hearn 1B, Westburg 3B, Cowser LF, Mullins CF, Kjerstad RF, Holliday 2B
My goodness, what a lineup. I hope everyone is taking a second to smell the roses. This is rare even with Holliday's struggles, and Mayo/Basallo aren't even hear yet.
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You have to wonder how long this guy can stick. It would be a very Orioles thing to find this guy out of nowhere and have him be a legitimate number three starter for most of the year.
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1 minute ago, deward said:
I wouldn't be counting on Basallo just yet. He's not lighting Bowie on fire right now. Not that he can't or won't get going soon, but next year would be an aggressive timetable for a 19 year old.
You have to assume McCann would be gone. Not necessarily though.
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13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
O’Hearn has a team option at a very affordable price. If he hits (like he has been since he has been here), it is likely that he will stay.
Kjerstad will likely slot in for Santander and that still leaves a place to be found for Mayo. Both of those players are ahead of Norby. And then there is Basallo who will be ready for promotion some time next year.
Now if you are okay with trading one of them then that’s one thing. But saying that things are perfectly aligned for Norby, I don’t get it. We already have a very crowded MLB roster (for position players). And there are 4 other prospects (including Holliday) ahead of Norby.
I actually didn't realize that O'Hearn had a $7.5 million option in 2025. Just cheap enough to pick up, just expensive enough to move.
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2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:
The issue for me is not his ability with the bat in his hands. It is the lack of starting pitching talent/depth throughout the org. And what that will look like if/when Burnes leaves via free agency.
This time next year, there's a fair chance that all of Urias, Santander (switch hitter) and O'Hearn won't be on the roster. Add in that Hays will be getting expensive and there's a lot of opportunity for a very cheap and very good Norby to have a spot on this team. It's just next year.
I know that's not the timeline that people are thinking about, but Elias has it tee'd up for Norby if he wants to go that route.
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This is why I was against the Burnes trade. I could turn out to be wrong even only having him for one year, but I would have rather got a guy with a few years of control.
I agree though. You really can't extend him at what he's going to ask for.
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43 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Rangers will extend rehab for RHP Jonathan Hernandez
Dallas News
https://www.dallasnews.com › Sports › Rangers
Jul 1, 2022 — Up to three 10-day extensions are permitted for shoulder and elbow surgery patients, but must be approved by MLB and the Players Association.
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This is what I think happens to Means if he is not ready for the majors after 2 more starts.
I didn't know this "extension" possibility existed. I do assume at this point that the O's will either use those extensions and/or transfer him to the 60-day to continue a longer rehab assignment.
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31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I was told that Cedric was just another guy. I was told that Cedric needed to be cut.
I NOTICED THERES NO VICTORY LAPPING AROUND THESE PARTS WHEN CEDRIC AND THE ORIOLES ARE ON A ROLL.
Lol. What is your post?
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When this guys is slumping, it can be tough. When he's on, he's my favorite or second favorite player (Gunnar the other).
I love me some Cedric Mullins.
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3 minutes ago, interloper said:
Why are you believing Twitter comments?
This is an old photo taken around Opening Day. We'd know something by now if it was Gunnar. Clearly a promo bit/commercial.
He also tweeted this yesterday.
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1 minute ago, interloper said:
No.
It's going to be a TV bit with Cal at a desk at shortstop because he's a part owner now. Gunnar will roll by and tell him his office is in the Warehouse.
I am so tired of Cal already.
Hold on. Do you know this for sure? The comments to the tweet also talking about a Gunnar extension. If you're right, Rubenstein misplayed this one.
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[Edited title and content to reflect that this is probably much ado about nothing.]
105.7 is speculating that this tweet is teasing a Gunnar extension, but it appears this is just a Cal commercial. There's a desk at shortstop.
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11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
It may just be semantics but they aren’t going to trade Kjerstad because OHearn is here.
They could elect to trade Kjerstad for pitching they need and perhaps knowing OHearn is here makes it easier to do that but I think they would prefer to have Kjerstad at his salary vs OHearn at his 2025 salary.
Yeah. I don't think we're disagreeing, but O'Hearn being a decent 1b and LF bat fills two needs, whereas Kjerstad is really just a bat that they'll try to find a place to play. On the other hand, if Santander leaves, there's more room for both.
So I wouldn't trade Kjerstad straight up for O'Hearn, but the latter gives Elias some flexibility assume O'Hearn would resign at a pretty low price.
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42 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
A lot of us missed on O'Hearn. Glad he's here, glad he's mashing, glad he's making it hard for prospects to come up. He's an important part of this team.
He's a LH 1B. Our prospects aren't. Seems to me that he's more likely to be kept next year than people might realize, freeing up someone like Kjerstad for a trade.
I'm not guaranteeing this by any means, but it wouldn't shock me.
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It feels like we're about to have a lot of interesting arms to follow. I feel like we'll have some join the team this year, but will start to have a pretty stead feed, at least of good bullpen arms, starting next year.
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14 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
Charlotte's pitching and park made them all look like All World prospects. The truth is they were probably accurately ranked. I checked a box score yesterday and Stowers was already down to .265 average. I don't think he's an automatic success in the majors.
Honestly, you can see the people who over react to small sample sizes from a mile away.
Norfolk was hitting against inferior pitching in a hitter's environment. We didn't suddenly have 5 prospects capable of 1.200 OPSs, lol.
Stowers is a perfect example. He's a nice prospect, but he's not really a tier 1 guy. I like all of Mayo/Kjerstad/Norbys bats better. Still, I think all 4 should still be roughly viewed as the same prospect they were 6 months ago, with perhaps a small tick up.
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I posted in another thread a few days ago, but I definitely don't think the game is going to get rid of the max effort velo/spin pitches. The only way to mitigate the associated risk this is to let these guys throw less, both in individual games and in accumulated outings/year.
It would be nice if we actually got some decent science on the risk windows. It feels very much to me like the ramp up part of the season is high-risk (see Bradish). If I were running a team, I'd be figuring out how to really ease my guys into the season through light offseason throwing programs and very controlled environments (e.g., 2 curves per session, 2 changes, etc.). Then, if they make it through the ramp up well, I wonder if there's a safer window of 2-3 months, during which guys are thriving but accumulating stress on their ligaments. Then as the season goes on, the injuries come again (see Bautista).
But that's my theory. As a father of a pitcher and fan of many more, I would love some actual science on this.
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2 hours ago, StottyByNature said:
I do always cringe when athletes start an interview with thanking God/Jesus, etc. At some point it rings a little hollow - more like a reflex than it carrying real meaning.
I get bothered when politicians say they're humbled, like human beings get more humble when they have crowds cheering and saying how great they are.
I figure it's in good taste to add a non-political point about politics to a non-religious thread about religion. Lol.
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Might as well lock this thread, lol, or move it to Orioles Talk.
Kjerstad Joining Team
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I will not be shocked if Kjerstad forces himself into the lineup. LH or not, he and Cowser are better than Hays and probably Santander. There will be a timeshare for sure, and it could take a minute, but Kjerstad could be an even better hitter than Cowser.