LookinUp

It stinks he wasn't in charge of trading Machado, Bundy and Gausman. Have to figure the return would have better fit his profile for success than what we ended up with.

The idea of extending both may be as much about optics as necessity. I agree that age/position makes Gunnar a bigger priority for sure. It's just optically imperfect to wrap up Gunnar, but not Captain America.

I have been one of Elias' biggest fans. I think we should do whatever it takes to keep him here. That said, an A+ is nearly impossible if you're grading on every specific thing. But in the grand scheme of things, I think he's been excellent. Great drafting. Great player development. Moved the fence to get better performance from average arms. Built the international program. Maintained ultimate payroll flexibility for when this team is a legit contender. Kept costs low so Angelos can sell. This is great stuff. I do think there are two things that are very fair to question: 1. Is he doing enough with young pitching? I don't think we know this answer, but we do know he's invested a ton in bats and not much in arms. We're just left to assume his approach to arms will work. 2. Do we do enough internationally? This isn't just about getting production from those kids. I think that's starting to bear fruit. I have heard though that we still have fewer boots on the ground in the DR than teams like the Astros. That could be an ownership limitation, or it could be an efficiency thing, but it concerns me if we're not all in there.

I eliminate Povich off the top. Could be wrong, but I don't think he belongs this high. That also eliminates Seth Johnson and Fabian, since they're only paired with Povich. I wouldn't have Johnson quite this high anyway, just given the injury. So it's Beavers and Basallo or Basallo and Beavers. I go Beavers and Basallo. I think people are looking at Beavers like he's an absolute stud with the same or maybe even better potential than Kjerstad and Cowser. There's a ton of projecting in that idea, but there's also a ton of projection with this kid. So I think 11 = Beavers, 12 = Basallo and 13 will end up Fabian.

I think they both have special upside and pretty high probability of getting there. Issue is health risk, which is higher for a pitcher in general.

If you measure by HRs, true. By WAR, maybe not. According to this article, the average WAR of a 50 FV prospect is only 3.1. This is a bit dated though, and I didn't read it closely to know if they compute this for you/old, at certain levels, etc. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

This is where I stand. I don't think the O's send him back to AAA. I think he either really looks great in the spring and opens in the rotation, or he is put in the pen, he continues to develop, and he likely goes to the rotation at some point later this year or next. I think he's done in the minors.

It's not other orgs, but Fangraphs has his FV at 50. I also don't know how often these are updated. For comparison... Henderson: 65 Rodriguez: 60 Hall: 55 Holliday: 55 Mayo: 50 Ortiz: 50 Cowser: 50 Westburg: 45 Kjerstad: 45 Norby: 40+ Basallo: N/A

I'm more at a point where I'll kind of be surprised if at least one of Ortiz, Westburg and Cowser weren't traded this offseason.

Tough evaluation without inside information. Pros: 1. Prodigious power 2. Age/Level 3. Great Arm (probably profiles as 3B, just not here most likely, fall back RF, then 1b) Cons: 1. Production this year was just ok, ignoring age/level. 2. High K%, low BB%, particularly in AA. So it's a tools rating, mostly power. He needs to improve the hit tool. You hope the player development people can round out his game. Age/level are on his side though, so I get the ranking. I'm just not sold yet.

This is the easiest vote. Holliday and Hall.

In fairness to the rest of us, I don't think any of us considered Cowser falling this far except for a few who saw that you hinted it. I bet the majority of posters (including me) would have had him at #4.

As an aside, I didn't realize until now that Nimmo is an OBP machine. Can we sign him for LF please? Trade Hays in a big package for pitching! Leave Trea Turner for the Dodgers.

I've said before that I've heard Westburg has a ++ make-up. I bet they love him internally, but I'll wait to see Tony's write-ups before forming my own updated opinion. He does seem like a hot and cold hitter, but he wouldn't be the first.

Because you'd rather not spend on riskier player injury profiles. It's believable to me that the O's would trade 10 prospects for two starting pitchers before they pay top of the market rates for a free agent starting pitcher. I'm not predicting that, but I think if they go after a true TOR pitcher, it'll be through trade. I've given a fair amount of thought to the Mullins situation and I still think you're wrong about him. I think sometimes you just pay a guy for what you'll get. You don't worry about trading him. You don't worry about trying to find a good replacement. You don't worry about signing him to FA afterwards. I get that there's always a churn scenario (e.g., trade Mullins + prospects for pitching, sign Nimmo) that could make sense. I just don't think it's something that SHOULD happen as much as something that could happen and make sense is some limited scenario.

Might want to wait for Tony's updated write-up on Westburg. He's still pretty universally rated higher than Ortiz. I'm not aware of any place rating Ortiz higher. Maybe they should. I don't know. But I don't think I've seen it yet.

Think I want my vote back. Think one of these two is Westburg. But maybe the power and defense and plus makeup has his at #4?

Agree. Stunningly good profile for an 8th ranked prospect in the system.

More broadly, does anyone know the roster requirements for Rule V selections? I thought they had to be active for a certain number of days. I'm not sure how the new CBA affects that.

100% true. Also great if/when they're active in trades and free agency. The deadline has been fun lately. The offseason has been a bore. Hopefully that changes this year.

This 10-20 list will resemble past year's 2-10 list. It's incredible.

I suspect this board is a little less optimistic about Mayo than Tony is. Mayo is seemingly the one guy in our system with prodigious power. Add in young age for level and a fair amount of success (interrupted by injury), and I think Tony's still going to be very high on him. I am still very high on Mayo too.

Yeah, I see a better FV with the hit tool. Like Frobby, I tend to be optimistic though. If he ends up a 45 hitter, I'll be disappointed.

I also picked Hall and Westburg. I think you could make the case that 4-8 are interchangeable. We'll see how Cowser's growth affects that thinking, but right now I think you can make a case for a lot of those guys at #4, or a case that they're not as valuable and can fall to 8.

I feel like this guy is going to be a professional hitter for a long time. I get that defense limits his value, but he'll be a guy that teams want in the lineup. Will that be with the O's? No idea. Could see him moving to LF for sure. The Astros had Alvarez playing out there, so that's evidence that you don't need gold glovers everywhere if you have good bats. I was curious about his potential for 1B. He's only 5'10", so 1B doesn't seem ideal.