LookinUp

Based on that write-up, he better have a higher opinion of Norby. Defense: doubt Norby's worse than fringy. Offense: Norby has power and production at high levels. Yorke doesn't have power or production. Age: Yorke is younger. Advantage Norby, IMO.

I'm a huge believer in use of the offseason to hyper-focus on 1-2 primary deficiencies. My question for Kjerstad isn't whether he's good enough now. It's whether he can make the changes necessary to regain what he needs to hit at higher levels. I'd wager the O's are as good as just about any group at identifying what he needs to change and building a program to do so. Kjerstad ended up playing a bunch this year and had decent success. I'd say that's a great season for him. Now it's time to hit the gym and the drills and come back next year ready to take on Bowie.

I wonder if MLB is going to keep managing baseballs exactly the same in 2023 as they have in 2022. I also wonder what effect the lack of shift will have on these numbers. If either change, ERAs league wide should go up. Seems to be a safe assumption that the lack of shift will raise ERAs across baseball. I have no idea what they do with Lyles, but $11 million is a lot for a guy who might be most likely to have a 4.5-5.00 ERA next year. They could rip that contract up and resign him for less, or let him walk and just go after other guys. I doubt he's kept at that price though.

Elias has to feel like a kid in a candy store at this point. He has player assets galore. He supposedly has money to spend. Other teams and agents know both of these things. His phone must be ringing off the hook. It’s like a choose your own adventure book. I almost don’t even find it interesting to discuss because the options are too numerous to decipher.

This is a great discussion. If I’m the O’s, I want him locked up long term for many reasons. I do understand how these deals turn into 13-year deals instead of 7-8 year deals. This won’t be easy to do.

The Tatis deal is bad. Something closer to Franco makes sense though.

I could picture Kjerstad as a David Segui-like first baseman for the O's.

And I can totally see how people can see. Will Clark when they look at him. But Clark was a smooth customer at first base and obviously had an amazing swing. I highly doubt Heston is anything like that even if he lives up to the hope.

“He reminds me of” and “it’s interesting to think about”, aren’t exactly direct comps.

I mean, Will Clark wasn’t drafted, didn’t get a massive heart issue and live through Covid. Of course it’s not a direct comp.

Interesting to think of him as a Will Clark-like future 1b of the Os.

You of all people can come up with a creative scenario where signing Correa makes sense. 1. Move the LF wall back in some. 2. Trade Mateo, Westburg, Ortiz and Mayo for stud starting pitching. 3. Roll with Henderson, Correa and Norby as the infield. 4. Roll with Rodriguez, young starters we traded for, Kremer, Bradish et al as starters. It could happen, it just seems like hammering a square peg into a round hole. I assume we spend resources where we have current and future needs. Not where we already have cheap, controllable, very good or great players.

I wouldn't absent some major trades that ends up with Correa at 3B and Gunnar at SS.

Sure, but my larger point is you don't get one of them for cheap. Maybe you do in a guy like Seth Johnson who's damaged goods, but if we're throwing huge names out like Cease, be ready to pony up a massive mint for him. And it might be worth it. But we shouldn't be message board fools about it. It will take a lot to get a true ace. The same is true with the price of Rodon in free agency.

If we're talking a trade for a young, controlled, stud pitcher, a couple of things need to happen. 1. It needs to be with a team that is willing. The White Sox think they'll contend. They won't trade Cease, for example. It needs to be a rebuilding team, most likely. 2. We need a legit headliner. We're talking Cowser or Mayo most likely. I don't believe Mullins, Mountcastle et al are headliners. 3. It needs good depth pieces. Think Westburg, Norby, Kjerstad, etc. Stowers and above two guys too. We have depth for sure. 4. It will need to be a 4 or 5 for 1 trade and probably includes 1-2 arms like Rom, Armbruester, Bradish as part of the deal. Are we willing to go there? IDK. I would. You need to overpay for pitching. Especially young, stud, cost controlled pitching. But you just have to trust that Elias can find that right guy.

I generally agree with this, but think it's mostly in the realm of pitching. For hitters, only Santander and Mateo had career years. Everyone else was as expected or somewhat worse. We should have upgrades coming from within even if we don't bring in a FA bat or two. On pitching, it's anyone's guess. A full year with Rodriguez and Hall should mitigate regression by some of the many candidates to regress. I do think we'll need to infuse the rotation with more talent though. Can we really expect Voth, Kremer, Bradish, Bautista, Perez and Wells to have years like this year? It's unlikely they all do, that's for sure, so pitching remains a risk for this team in 2023 w/o additions.

If Ortiz makes one more list, he’ll be eligible for draft compensation. I’ll go out on a limb and say they go very young: 1b: Mountcastle 2b: Westburg ss: Ortiz 3b: Henderson

Yeah. I expect it is the Os data guys who are coming up with their respective off-season plans. You might wonder if they want them to work on pitch shape or arm slot or something, but that type of stuff almost certainly comes under direct supervision.

This all just illustrates how many options Elias has this year. He can pick his favorites and trade others for the best offer. He has a ton of flexibility. He also doesn't have to do anything immediately if offers aren't good other than maybe move guys like Urias and/or Vavra.

I think you could guess a little both ways on Mayo at 3B, but I think it was stated in the context of other guys being really good defensively and Mayo not being at their level, more so than he's a butcher at 3B.

Sure you can, if they're behind a wall. I'm not sure what would be done to allow them to see the game though.

I bet they do 2/3 things: 1. Move LF in slightly with a slightly lower wall (necessary if moved in). I think it was slightly too extreme this year. 2. Smooth the bullpen angle and/or move the opposition bullpen into the CF grass under the batter's eye. Keep the park beautiful. Get rid of that eyesore. 3. Move RF back a little, including the flag court and the grounds crew bullpen or whatever they call it. Lowest probability, but would help pitchers from those cheapies to right and right center.

With enough spots available, he might be someone you protect while also signing another guy to be the opening day backup.

Wow. I expected more of a homer question like "what makes you think the O's don't value him?" To answer your question, it's an assumption that a young, successful, left hander with good enough velo would be pretty highly valued. Heck, I think the O's should value him, but I don't think he's their "type." I just doubt that they value him as much as I assume other teams might. I think it's more likely that he gets 1/2 the year in AAA and then promoted to Baltimore, but I think he's a guy with trade value that they might be more willing to part with in a big trade.

I'd sign them both next year. Goal needs to be something like 10 more years with Gunnar. 7-8 with Adley. Give or take. But there'd be no doubt they are cornerstones if I was the owner.