LookinUp

I wasn't online and didn't see the vote, but am perfectly fine with Kjerstad at #10. That's especially true after his AFL season. The glaring thing from the write-up is his hit tool. This is a guy who was drafted to hit, so a FV of 45 won't be good enough, IMO. Given the up and down nature of his season, I totally get that there's risk in his projection. However, with the recent history in our player development, and factoring in his draft pedigree, I feel like 2023 could be a big jump forward for Kjerstad. I do worry about the Ks, but actually expect that hit tool to make a significant jump forward. Defensively, I see him as more likely to be a 1b/DH type mostly because of our other outfield options.

Nope. Nope. Nope. Now he can go home with a very specific fitness and hitting plan and get to work on that. This is the time of year to work on retooling what needs to be retooled. It takes thousands of reps to build muscle memory. If he needs swing adjustments, he should be starting almost immediately.

I missed this earlier this season. Kind of crazy. I don't feel like players as good as him usually retire at this point in their careers. He had an outside chance. Seems like either his heart generally wasn't into it or that injury is really bad. Or maybe that "outside chance" I mentioned was a really really outside chance and he just recognized the writing on the wall.

I hope that isn't the case. I don't want the O's over-stressing value. I want them getting the players Elias wants. Obviously there are degrees of how far you go, but the O's should not be shifting with the winds unless it's a major hurricane wind. They should be going out and getting the best guys for our plans.

Jeez. I forgot about Young. How many years ago would the O's have been thrilled if their top 3 SS prospects were Holliday, Young and Bencosme? Now they have those, Henderson, Ortiz, Westburg and Hernaiz and lord knows who else. I know most won't end up at SS, but it's just unbelievable. I was listening on the radio to the world series and the announcer mentioned how so many guys in Houston were drafted as SS. Elias has his way. I like it.

I have a feeling that Elias knows most of what he plans to do this offseason. The market could change, but I'd wager he knows what trades he's targeting and what FAs he's targeting.

I imagine that every year there are a few guys who have a decent draft pedigree but haven't produced for whatever reason. They have to be ranked low on prospect lists but in theory they could make big jumps. Not high probability guys, but guys who have a chance. Tremble and Rhodes definitely fit that description to me. This is a type that also fits as a 3/4th piece in a trade as a flyer for another team.

Povich's placement and write-up could be really interesting. It's results versus projection. If his projection aligns with his results, he'll fall. OTOH, you could argue for one of those Keith Law-Joey Ortiz placements based on what we think he will be versus what he was in the 2nd half of 2022 where he goes top 10.

Who knows? It could be an exciting November* for the first time in a long time as an O's fan. *actually, I love your lists so it's always exciting for me. But for mainstream O's fans, it's a snooze fest.

Bold prediction: your list has to change mid-stream because of 1-2 major trades.

For the umpteenth time on this site, I say the O's need to pay this man a crap load of money, yes above market, to stay. And they need to do it soon. Big time $ are coming after him if the O's don't lock him up first.

He also seems to have a smaller international scouting budget.

I don't know the answer to your question, but I'm not assuming that it doesn't matter and I am assuming that it's fairly easy for the O's to model how much it matters in the aggregate (e.g., in OPACY and away). Will it be orders of magnitude difference? I doubt it. Maybe it comes down to choosing one equally priced option over another, or maybe there's more to it. I don't know, but I do think that it's a significant enough difference that it will affect the O's roster building decisions.

If he can make contact, and assuming our other OF prospects develop into major league regulars, it really seems like an eventual fit for 1B if he can catch the ball.

One way or the other, I'm sure Elias and Sig know mathematically how to approach this.

The park factor, 16th versus 25th, is significant is it not? The goal is to squeeze extra value out of the same cost. It's money ball. That doesn't mean you get rid of all RHHs. It just means the calculus is a little different.

Mateo/Urias aren't bringing significant value without being linked to better (higher upside) players.

Is this just your assumption or has this been mentioned somewhere? Just curious. I could see the argument.

Have to assume that teams put some kind of premium on range of middle infielders without the shift moving forward. That would increase Mateo's value. Not sure how much.

This kid's not going to want to come home from Arizona.

Don't forget that the shift is going away. Pitching across the sport won't be as good, most likely.

I've said this before, but there are so many angles Elias can play, I don't know where to begin with predictions. My hope is that he turns good players/prospects into great ML players through trades, free agency or player development. The choices he makes need to be to find a couple/few more great players. Not to fall in love with good players.

This is wonderful to hear. I do wonder if Aberdeen's issues this year were about the stadium/lighting, developmental steps they're focusing on there or coaching. It does seem to drag down even our top talent for whatever reason.

It's why I can't wait for his updated lists to come out every year. And every year he says the write-up is more important than the actual ranked order. And every year I try to reinforce that point because it's so true. We'll learn a lot about these guys and that will illuminate what Elias *might* be thinking this offseason.

It think it's a matter of degree. We already lost Zac Pop. This year we have the possibility of losing multiple people kind of like him. Some may end up better with health. Who knows? Is it as bad as it'll be in two years? Probably not (depending on trades/roster churn). But I won't be shocked if a guy like Brnovich or Hanifee gets plucked and has success somewhere else next year.