LookinUp

Definitely should try to add young pitching wherever they can, but I'll say the crazy thing. I think they should also be targeting a top vet or vets. You can't build a full staff/team on young alone. I think experience really matters. If I were owner with a lot of $, I'd personally go after Grienke and/or Scherzer. Yeah, I know, that's definitely not happening, but it's what I'd do.

I can't say I love those videos from a physical perspective. I do like that he essentially says he's back. That's wonderful news. Random videos certainly won't tell the full story. There's a Crede Willems video that many here have seen that raises him up my rankings just on power alone. No idea if he can hit or play, but that ball exploded.

I guess I just don't get your point. What you're saying for Bradish/Lopez is well-within the parameters of Tony's write-up.

Who's comparing Lopez and Bradish? As an aside, we get into this annually, but the word ceiling means different things to different people. I don't want to put words into Tony's mouth, but I think he uses the word ceiling more as a reasonable ceiling, not as an absolute ceiling. Obviously if a pitcher develops an advanced feel for a change up or something that hasn't been seen before, he can outperform what's currently thought to be reasonable. So if a player's profile changes significantly, there's always a chance of outperforming what a ceiling is listed as here.

I've been waiting for Ortiz.

Fair. It's always tough to swallow an injury like his. No surgery. Not a full recovery. Will he ever be the same? The September snapshot was not good.

Very fair write-up, Tony. Really great info re: holding velo, command concerns and lack of ability to execute the Ch and curve. I think this guy's a fighter and that he'll be valuable in some capacity. He's close and we can always hope he gains better feel/command of the major league ball. That said, I totally understand his placement here after reading the write-up.

I had a dream last night that Watson came in for the O's and hit a bomb. I assume it's because of this post, because otherwise when's the last time I thought of Watson? lol

This is like throwing darts at a board blind folded. Nobody has a clue what this kid will do. He has a long ramp up after 2 years off. I have no problem with the ranking, but reasonable people would have him lower just because of the huge risk. It's just about preference at this point. I hope they're really disciplined with his throwing program. Start slow and work up. Give it time and patience even if he's blowing dudes away. This is a 3-4 year play (even if he's in the majors sooner), not a 1-year helium guy. Get him right for the long run. That's how I'd look at it.

I think people are too caught up on the exact order. Lowther wasn't allowed to finish his minor league progression last year. Bradish was. Lowther should have been parked in AAA and been made to find consistent success before being promoted. He wasn't. I hope they don't feel forced to put him in the ML rotation at the beginning of this year. If they do because he's ready, fine, but I think they need to let this guy get his feet under him before throwing him into the fire. Send him to AAA or the ML bullpen if that's what it takes. I'll feel the same about Bradish, Kremer, Akin, Wells, Rom, etc. whenever they come up too. Some will be ready in March/April, but I'd rather they show they're ready instead of just being given a spot because they're next man up. I just really don't think the hiccups in AAA last year were a coincidence. A lot of these guys honed their craft on spin rates and feel, and when they got to AAA they needed to regain that feel. They weren't given that opportunity, by and large, before failing in the majors.

Nice pull with Delgado as catcher prospect.

I don’t know, but I love our 10-20. There’s a lot of guys with a real chance in this group. Someone that Tony has lower will get close to his ceiling and shoot in the list next year. It is what it is.

I think this is a fair discussion. For me, after last year, what I really want is AAA success. Feel the ball. Adjust. Settle in and then I’ll see you in the majors. Not before.

For what it's worth, I think it's Tony who has often compared Rom to Zach Davies. His velo is a few ticks better than Alex Wells'. Definitely defensible to put him here given his age and results. You can really make a case for a lot of guys here. Heck, I wouldn't be too surprised if Lowther turns out better than all of them. I think it was an off year and not an inability to pitch that knocked his value.

I expect Kjerstad to start pretty slowly. Just speculating, but if "resuming baseball activities" actually meant he was in great shape, I feel like we'd be hearing it. I'm just really pessimistic on his recovery timeline. Hopefully I'm wrong.

While I'd place Vavra at the bottom of this list for me, I think this is a sneaky excellent post in laying out a lot of the names that are coming in 10-20. The next 4 for me are Bradish, Norby, Pinto and Rom and I think the order is anyone's guess. I'm going with Bradish because I think his stuff profiles as powerful enough to succeed at the ML level and I think he has already worked through the AAA ball issues, whereas Rom and Pinto have not. I really like Norby a lot too, but Bradish is my guy here. And with all of that said, if Tony pops Pinto on us out of nowhere, I wouldn't be shocked. Guy has upside. I don't have a ton of faith in Vavra. I feel like he has a bat looking for a position. Seems like a UTI guy for me. Maybe a Ryan Flaherty type who's probably less useful on the left side of the infield. If Tony says his bat profiles significantly better, I'd get it, but I don't love the position value as much as some solid-average bat value. That's just my mostly uninformed take though.

Honestly, it's impossible for you to be "right" on this one unless you guess very high or very low or have legit inside information. For example, I'd like to know that he can handle cardio on a consistent basis. That would tell me his heart is working, at which point I'd be more bullish. Otherwise, you're just adding him in the list based on tiering of upside minus some guess of risk. That's absolutely fair. From that perspective, while it's nearly impossible to be right, it's also nearly impossible to be wrong. We all know there's an information gap here.

I have no idea what's going on, but the #1 priority this offseason needs to be to get more of those guys who dominated AA (and some AAA) to perform at least adequately in the majors.

I expect it to be Kjerstad, but my personal choice is Bradish and then Norby, so I went with Bradish. I really have no idea what to do with Kjerstad, but having a major heart issue is a big deal. I think I'd personally ding his prospect rating pretty substantially and just hope that he returns like the injury never happened. I don't think that's really practical though. He'll need a full year of health just to get back to good physical condition, and that's to say nothing about being a superior athlete that it takes to be a top baseball player in the world. Bradish is near ready and has the stuff to be an effective starter, I think. Based on some other comments I think Tony will have him rated a little lower than I do, and he's probably right, but I'm bullish on the kid.

This is a good prospect. It's good to learn more about his plate approach and I agree that it makes his hitting ceiling lower than Stowers for example. Still, he looks like a regular starter in this org in the near future. Gotta love it.

So are we predicting that Stowers is the first guy to hit the warehouse in a game? Or will Neustrom beat him to it?

I guess it depends what you mean by worthwhile. A reliever that's good but expensive? Probably not in our range, but Santander might get that back. An impact starter. Add Santander to one of our 3-9 prospects and you might get it done.

Seems Tony's considering Kjerstad here. I can't argue it. I have zero clue where I'd put him.