LookinUp

I'm very hopeful that this time next year we'll have a few international guys sprinkled toward the top of our rankings. Not sure where, of course, but they're starting to move up into the system where there are more eyes, better competition, and a better sense of what they are.

As opposed to ROY, which is voted on by writers and the more prestigious award. Still, to win something like this is a feather in Mountcastle's cap and, honestly, might even raise him a notch in my eyes.

I agree the price in trade chips would be something, as opposed to nothing, but don't discount the idea just on those grounds. I think instead the question is whether they're the guys the O's would be targeting. I don't see them targeting guys with 1/2 years left before free agency. Those are the guys we generally sell off, and at this point in our rebuild, I just don't see us going that route. But the trades are coming. Not sure it's this offseason, particularly with the CBA issues, but they are coming for sure, and I think Just Regular's ideas have some merit. Unfortunately, I think he just outlined the Yankees plan. Not the Orioles.

Yeah. That's true. Plus, are we looking at a ML average type of player or are we looking at a phenom who will rocket through the system. I think there would have to be indications that he's really good already (like projects as top 10 in the league, early) for me to put him above some guys who are closer and have more of a track record.

Had Hall ahead a couple of years ago, but then his control issues came up and he was injured. During that time, Grayson's stuff took a great step forward too. If both are healthy and dealing, its jackpot time. Could the Orioles ever be so lucky?

I just don't know enough about guys like Basallo to make a comparison. Being so far away, I'd wager his range of outcomes is much broader than Stowers'. So it becomes a probability versus ceiling conversation, though I think Stowers' ceiling is quite high too. I also love Westburg. His numbers are exceptional after adjusting to a league. I don't think they get talked about enough. And Kjerstad's range of outcomes is wider than pretty much anyone on the list. For a guy like him, nothing at all matters re: anyone's placement on any list until we get real information about his health and physical recovery. Until then, he almost belongs in an entirely different conversation. This is such a good list, to be honest. You didn't even mention Norby. I'd understand putting him at 8 or 9 for sure, but he's more likely to be below all of Westburg, Stowers and Kjerstad is my guess. Maybe Pinto. Maybe Basallo. Heck, maybe even Vavra based on some historical rankings. Still, as I type this, Tony reacted to a post I made about Norby yesterday. I've very bullish. Will go see what he said. [Edit: Tony's comment was actually about Ortiz, who I also loved this year before injury. This is the best list of prospects I can remember and it's not even close. The Wieters, Arrieta, Hernandez, Matusz list (I think they were all on the same one) was really good, but had very little depth. Much more here.]

Wow. Really surprising for Mountcastle. Good for him, especially with it voted on by peers.

Ok. My theory that Stowers is higher than Henderson is shot down, I think. Has to be Henderson here. Young age. Big upside. Uneven, but some promising results at times for sure.

I don't think you're wrong. He'll either get better or his BA will go down some, but he has room for error in that regard. .260 - .280 is darn near lofty nowadays.

Another power hitting CoF with some chance to stick in CF. I'd be more bullish if this profile came with a true CF. As it is, the CoF prospect scene in Baltimore is already kind of loaded.

Not ruling out Ortiz until Tony dashes my dreams with his prospect rankings!

And Kjerstad has to go somewhere.

We'll see. He also has very high walk rates, so I think the K rate is related to selectiveness and contact rates, not just contact rates.

They couldn't stop talking about the Astros high contact rates after last night's game. They're not out of fashion amongst those in the know.

Hate to derail this thread, but the decision needs to be made if Mullins will be a major contributor during a competitive window. If the competitive window is in his FA years, you trade him. If it's sooner, you keep him minus an awesome replacement.

Not that I disagree, but a closer is typically used in the last inning ahead by 3 or (usually) less. That's also high leverage. You really need several high leverage capable people in the bullpen. From there you pick the best match-up among your guys.

Henderson had massive L/R splits and below average fielding. I don't think Tony sees the same prospect that was being hyped a few months ago. I too love the power and think he'll take a major step forward this year, but Tony's seen a lot more than me, that's for sure. Hall also took steps forward, not just in what he showed in his 7 games last year but also in offseason reports re: control. He looked to be putting together a terrific starter's profile before he went down with injury. That's a different look than the last time Tony saw Hall before last year's rankings, when his control had gone haywire.

I'll use this post to make a "you heard it here first" post... Tony will have Stowers above at least 1 of Hall and Henderson, and maybe both. Stowers is a .260 -.280 hitter with massive power, high OBP, a great RF arm and very good range in the OF. He's essentially what we hope Kjerstad will be but with a higher k rate. It's an impressive profile that Tony loves. We're all knocking him so much because of the k rate, but ignoring high bb rates, solid BA and great power. I think Tony thinks this kid is a stud to the point where I'm talking myself into Tony placing him here instead of 6 or 7. Plus he's done it through AAA. He's ready and will only be held back because of service time.

Ortiz could be the SS of the future if that start last year was real. I don't know enough about his profile to actually predict that, and Tony had him way lower than I'd expect in the rankings, but he was putting on a show for a while there. If Ortiz is THAT good, now you're figuring out who to trade or who to move to CoF. Again, then you're figuring out who to trade because of the OF prospects. Bottom line...there's a way to bring in pitching. lol

Both got through this season. That's a big step. Now they can work on strength and conditioning and prepare normally (and strategically) for the season. I think you find the role these guys can have success with and you build onto it over time. I still think they're both a full healthy season away from taking off the kid gloves and let them really push things.

The O's have Henderson, Westburg, Norby, Ortiz and Hernaiz in the middle infield. Vavra in theory too. Mullins, Hays, Santander, Stowers, Neustrom, Cowser, Kjerstad and some of the recent draftees in the OF. You can see where the trades are going to come from. Some real talent here. As to your point, yes, Norby can hit. He's a hell of a prospect who shouldn't fall far down Tony's list. Notice that in the last power rankings he's above Westburg. People are sleeping on this kid a bit. They shouldn't.

What a great view. Can really see how his pitches move side to side. He can cut the ball in on LH hitters or run it away from them. Obviously also true against righties. That's such an important weapon to get both LH and RH hitters out. A lot of guys don't have that in their arsenal.

I don't necessarily disagree with this. I guess I'm just saying that you really want to build arm strength and resilience over time. If he's a starter, he'd almost always have to be on a short leash. On the other hand, at least he'd be on a predictable schedule and given regular rest, which may not be possible in a bullpen role. I'm just saying his health needs to be nurtured and they should pick the best role for that.

While Markakis only had a couple of 20+ HR years, he was a doubles machine and that was valuable. Plus his command of the strike zone really made the pitcher work in the first inning countless times. We really missed that approach when he left. I do like the Nimmo comp too. Guy had a 132 OPS+ last year. Markakis only had one year above that. All of this is to say that Markakis seems like a great comp to me, but not a ceiling. Either way, the lower risk profile combined with his projections makes for a very nice #4 prospect. Is that what you want out of the #5 overall pick? Now that's a different question.

Totally agree. Let him build up strength over time...