LookinUp

Tampa model:

This is an Elias quote from that Meoli Baltimore Sun article. He's telling you he's going to spend when ready. He's not going to spend just to get to 70 wins. He views that as a misallocation of resources. Like it or not, that's the philosophy. The playoff odds he's referring to will be driven by home-grown players or players that we acquire in trades. Only then will the free agents and taking on extra money come into play.

Honestly, this is the whole point. This ownership doesn't seem like it has any plans to spend, so what is Elias supposed to do? People get mad about pushing it off another two years, but that's a fallacy because 1) Means just isn't THAT good and 2) there could be real benefit for a decade in the right trade. I understand SG's frustration with what the O's aren't doing, but to me it's about as useful as going into the forest and yelling nonstop at a tree. It doesn't matter if you're right. The tree doesn't care. What I think Elias is good at is accruing young talent. I am fine if that's ALWAYS his approach because eventually we should have so much volume that the ML team has to be good. So yes, I'm one of the dumb fans who accepts losing I guess.

The SG I know (through a message board) and love would say you trade Means AND make other signings. You get prospects, raise payroll and make the team better. Or you actually take on salary in a Means trade to increase the return. The idea that trading Means is a bad idea because it shifts our competitive window being too far in the future is just the wrong argument. It's smart to trade him for a VERY good return. You still build the rest of the team and organization through all ways possible. It's a Means to an end, if you will. (sorry about that)

Wow. Sorry it took so long for me to respond to this thread. I had to pick myself up off the floor. I must have fainted. Am I reading this right? The O's want to trade a player too early instead of too late and SG's against it? :thud: There I go again.

I had posted on some of the draftees in another thread. You've already addressed a few of them, but here are a few more with my quick comments. Not sure if any are interesting or not... Billy Cook - 10th rounder, extreme flyball guy (.33 GO/AO), showed some power Justin Armbruester - 12th, good results in Delmarva 16 k in 9 IP Daniel Lloyd - over slot, 14th round Peter Van Loon - 16th round senior pitcher, decent results

Nope. Not worried about signing some washed up dude to teach the #1 prospect who led his team to the CWS and then every minor league team since. Adley will be just fine. If he needs a coach. Hire one. I'm guessing the O's take 2 or 3 guys. I'd be cool with a young C if the description is accurate, but I kind of doubt it really is. I love the idea of stashing the guy with TJ surgery, but would really be ok with a lot of profiles from different positions. Arms seem easiest though. Find a live one or two and hope.

Along the same lines of Heid, is Trendon Craig just a guy that you haven't had a chance to get information about at this point? Seems like a guy who could shoot up prospect lists next year just based on the hype.

Both of your options make some sense, but are non-starters in negotiations, right? Kind of like a relegation league. #1 would hurt college baseball, which is something MLB doesn't want to do because college lowers development costs. #2 would let the big markets take over.

There are known guys who didn't make the list (Peek, Brnovich, etc.), there are international guys who didn't make the list (De La Cruz and others) and then there's the guys we drafted this year that nobody has thought much about. I think some of these guys, like the international guys, just didn't get enough exposure to get attention. Most won't pan out, but these are some guys I'm mildly curious about. Who knows, maybe one or two will end up really good? Collin Burns - 6th round over slot, ss didn't hit for much power Connor Pavolony - 7th round over slot that didn't hit well at all this year Billy Cook - 10th rounder, extreme flyball guy (.33 GO/AO), showed some power Dylan Heid - 11th rounder with some hype that may or may not have been accurate Justin Armbruester - 12th, good results in Delmarva 16 k in 9 IP Jacob Teter - 13th rounder, .935 OPS at Delmarva Daniel Lloyd - over slot, 14th round Peter Van Loon - 16th round senior pitcher, decent results Trendon Craig - largest over slot after Willems and Rhodes (e.g., most over slot, not most paid)

Potential potential potential. As Frobby said, he could jump way up lists by this time next year. Should he be #30 now or should he be #20? #15? That's a fair debate, IMO, on the standard of who would you rather have in your org? I'll take lottery tickets like this all day and twice on Sunday over Hudson Haskin, for example. Nothing against the latter. I think Tony's ranking does recognize the extreme risk in projecting a kid this young. Can he even throw strikes? Will he ever have a good secondary pitch? Will his arm withstand the stress of being a professional pitcher? We don't know. We just hope. So we really shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. But it's hard not to.

Definitely enjoy it. I love this stuff and, at best, I'd have to go a bunch of places for each individual player to even begin to piece together this much useful information. It would be impossible for me to do.

I've seen this kid ranked about 10th in various places, and usually 2nd best pitcher available. That said, I think he's a guy I'd be taking a long hard look at for #1 if I'm the O's. He is a HS pitcher, which almost certainly knocks him down in Elias' eyes, but he also would likely sign significantly under slot. Plus, it goes without saying that the O's could use more arms in the system. I love the profile though. Mid-upper 90's FB with room for growth. Elite changeup already. Working on curve/slider, but has value there. Room for physical projection. Great student. What's not to like? Well, I don't love his mechanics, but think a relatively minor tweak could make his delivery a little less violent. https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=538904

Was thinking the same thing. It's like a combination of Roger Clemens and Phil Neikro was on the mound.

Very interesting. Seems like the ideas being proposed are tweaks to existing formulas rather than a new way of doing it. Basically: 1. Salary floor for teams, 2. Arbitration after 2 years, not 3, and 3. Free Agency after 5 years, not 6. Basically, let guys get paid younger and make teams spend on something. That wouldn't stop gaming of service time, but I'm not sure how else to do it.

Which is probably a safer assumption that at almost any time in my lifetime. By safer, I mean they're less likely to ruin actually talented guys, and may even help several take a step forward. By the way, the guy I want to see more of is De La Cruz. I don't know a ton about him, but have heard good things. Then there's this neat thread in the minors forum that SG started on barrell percentage. Worth a look if others haven't seen it yet.

We can dream on this kid. Pretty much the exact profile I want out of the young international signings.

@Tony-OH, this is really excellent work this year. Thanks for all of the time and effort. This informed background, particularly on so many guys, is second to none.

I don't want to read too much into one video, but no thanks.

Spoiler: Hall won't be in the top 30. As for Servideo, I expected to see a much better defensive profile. I knew his bat wasn't great, but I expected more of a Grenier type of profile. That said, with this profile I might actually take Grenier over Servideo. It's unclear to me why he's listed other than draft position. That comes with all of the caveats of injury, player development, etc.

I'm also surprised that he popped above Haskin, but the write-up makes the case very well. I just can't believe that profile is written for our #27 prospect. That's incredibly positive.

Kjerstad fits above all others if he pans out as hoped when he was drafted.

I wonder what the equivalent would be in baseball. Pitching Coordinator, Analytics Assistant, Mechanics Assistant, Pitch Development Specialist, Advanced Scouting Assistant Hitting Coordinator, Analytics Assistant, Mechanics Assistant, Pitch Selection Coordinator, Advanced Scouting Assistant

Shockingly, it's possible, but I wouldn't say it's likely. Catcher: Rutschman. Will happen soon. Pitchers: Rodriguez, Hall. Could happen this year. Outfielders: Cowser, Stowers, Kjerstad. Really depends on Kjerstad's health and performance. Assumes at least 1 of Hays and Mullins isn't around. Infielders: Mayo, Henderson, Westburg, Norby. Presents a roster crunch issue here, but one could be a UIF or DH. By capability, you can see it. By current roster construction, it seems like we'll trade from our outfielders and young infielders for this to happen.

I was kind of hoping he was already throwing off a mound again.