EddeeEddee
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Posts posted by EddeeEddee
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Just now, eddie83 said:
Ramirez just got save for LAD vs NYY.
He has helped Orioles this year!!!
Haha you and I both could not resist
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Wow, Yohan Ramirez just saved a Dodger victory in Yankee Stadium in the 11th inning. I'm pulling for the dude, especially when he gets a save against the Yankees.
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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
It has absolutely been a complaint. I would say bullpen management is the most common criticism of Hyde.
But again as others have said it's probably organizational. I'm not in the know but I doubt it can mostly be pinned on Hyde.
The bigger issue with the bullpen is more that we need one or two better pitchers than we currently got.
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2 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:
You only really need your 3 best SPs in a 7-game series. So the Yankees have Cole and some other solid pitchers.
Gil has never thrown more than 100 innings in his career - including the minors - so you can safely count him out for the playoffs.
I'd take Grayson over every Yankee pitcher that will most likely be available in the playoffs except for Cole. And Cole, like Bradish, is coming off a significant injury which could easily knock him back out for the season.
I'm not trying to knock Grayson, just pointing out that I don't agree his presence in the rotation gives the Orioles the top 3 starters in baseball. The Yankees are not the best either imo, just a comparison point. The Phillies may be the best -- their top 4 are probably better than the O's top 3.
But mainly I was pointing out Bradish's arm being a concern. If he becomes unavailable for awhile the O's suddenly look uncompetitive to the point that making the playoffs may not be a foregone conclusion. That's why the O's could maybe use another starter. If Bradish is not available for the postseason then we're probably as good as done.
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On 6/5/2024 at 12:16 PM, Sports Guy said:
Trade for Detmers
Nice buy low candidate though I doubt even the Angels are dumb enough to trade him to the Orioles, unless it's some offer they can't refuse.
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On 6/5/2024 at 8:37 AM, sportsfan8703 said:
Why do we need another SP again? And an expensive one at that? We have 6 currently. You can only throw 3 in a playoff series. What’s the thinking behind this?
Burnes, Bradish, Grayson is maybe the best in baseball?
Also, we get to play the Yankees 9 more times. We’re in control of our own destiny. Might just have to go 6-3.
Bradish feels like he could go on IL again and, while Grayson is good, I think you're overrating the still developing version of him.
I don't see how Burnes, Bradish and Grayson are the best in baseball when, just as one example, the Yankees are sporting Gil, Rodon and Stroman and probably will have Cole back soon. Not to mention Cortes and Schmidt.
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Maybe a bit but not really worried about the hitting. The young guys are growing, they'll get better. The veterans, with the exception of Mullins, are starting to hit better.
The main concern with this team as usual is the pitching -- starting pitching and bullpen. We probably need to add one of each.
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26 minutes ago, G54377 said:
Would anyone explore trading for Kyle Tucker? I saw Houston may explore trading him, and you'd get 1 +1/2 years of him. I know we need a bullpen arm (and maybe a starter), but man Tucker hitting 3rd behind Gunnar and Adley would be sexy. We do lack a true experienced hitter. Maybe a three way trade to unload Tony to an offense starved team like SEA?
It would be awesome get Tucker, but I think it would cost too much considering he's a free agent the end of next year and considering our biggest need is a couple of arms.
That said maybe his price would go down if the O's took Josh Hader off of Houston's hands too. Hader is risky but he's has pitched well over the past month or so. The price would go even lower if the O's took Verlander off their hands too. Verlander has pitched well this year.
But it's nearly impossible to imagine Elias doing a wild AJ Preller style deal like that even if we have the pieces to do it. Tucker could cost Cowser, maybe more, though maybe less if the O's took highly paid vets off their hands as well.
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Just now, Roy Firestone said:
Mullins just dosent give us anything offensively...and hasn't for a long while...close doesnt count..
It's fine letting him get some reps against righties early in the game, but later in the game against a lefty was probably a good time to sub for him. Maybe Hyde wants his glove to stay in late in a close game.
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3 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:
So they'll have space to give this kid Gerrit Cole a shot. Look, I'm not ready to crown the Yankees yet but you can't count on a Rays-like collapse, either. A Wander Franco scandal doesn't come around every year (thank God).
Good point about Franco. I forgot about that.
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1 minute ago, Malike said:
Are you suggesting that on June 5th, 2023 when the Rays were 43-19 and we were 39-20 and 4.5 games back you knew the Rays weren't a good team?
No, but the Rays have been unusually unlucky with injuries, both last year and this year. Now the Yankees have both Soto and Judge raking and maybe will get back to Cole soon. Even before getting Cole back they lead the league in both pitching ERA and hitting OPS. This is a different Yankee team.
On top of that, the Orioles keep getting stung by the starting pitching injury bug.
The O's could overtake the Yankees but it feels more difficult than in awhile.
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11 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Actually, that's exactly what it's meant for, to compare value across different types of players and different types of contributions. It's to put everything, hits, homers, steals, fielding, pitching, on the common baseline of wins.
Tom Tango and Rally and the others who developed WAR specifically were doing it (or at least one of the main goals was) to help determine value for contracts. I have had conversations with them on this very topic. See posts #236 and 240 here.
No, I don't think that's what he's saying. He's saying he's using WAR to judge whether a contract was good or bad after it was already handed out, based on performance during the contract period. He's not saying he's using WAR to determine what compensation should be based on prior performance.
If top middle infielders and catchers nearly always have a higher WAR than top starting pitchers -- because that happens to be how WAR values performance -- but the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers are not in the market for middle infielders and catchers, then it stands to reason the elite starting pitchers will have bigger contracts than elite middle infielders and catchers. Teams, especially rich teams, are always in the market for elite starting pitching. That's why pitchers make so much -- not because teams mistakenly overvalue pitching relative to position players.
Of course various metrics are used to judge future performance, but supply and demand dominates the discussion. If by some miracle there is a glut of elite starting pitching, then salaries for them should fall, but that's unlikely to happen.
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6 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:
I have been very surprised by Westburg's speed. Could he be a backup CFer?
He's the second fastest player on the team. Mateo is easily the fastest.
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1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
I think we'll see that at the trade deadline when Elias trades for bullpen arm.
Maybe, but Elias could trade guys that aren't close to the majors yet, like Beavers or Fabian. And I doubt Holliday comes back up until later in the year. It would be nice if Elias could trade veterans like Hays or Santander but that seems the least likely, even though they are both starting to hit well.
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3 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:
I think Norby is gonna be a very very good player...he can hit...I just have no idea where he will play...
Maybe keep him at second base and move Mateo to CF. When Holliday arrives move Norby to LF or maybe move Holliday to the outfield. But yeah there aren't enough spots. Some guys are gonna have to get traded.
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Urias, Hays, Gunnar, Santander and Mounty are the O's hottest hitters over the past 7 days. Nice to see the offense getting spread around a bit more.
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1 minute ago, Morgan423 said:
This not the Mounty that Canada wanted.
Too bad they never got this mountie in his prime lol
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On 6/2/2024 at 1:56 PM, Moose Milligan said:
Count me as nervous about the decline in K rates too.
True, I guess that is the main concern about Burnes. Even if it's determined Burnes is too risky because of decline in K rates, I still believe the Orioles -- barring the team suddenly producing great pitchers in the minors -- will need to target one or two top free agents starters in the near future.
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12 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:
So your response is to question the metric?
It's rWAR, as I said in the original post, Baseball Reference's flavor. Fangraph's version would be less generous to pitchers, with the top five over that period less valuable, at 28-34. And not that I want anyone to use Win Shares, but that's significantly less generous to pitchers than even fWAR. Essentially every major modern value metric shows elite pitchers as less consistently good/valuable than the top non-pitchers.
But even if they're somewhat less valuable, they're still going for 8-10M per win, so a top starter will get $200-300M or more despite high injury risk, which leads to high performance risk. 6.5 of the top 10 contracts ($/year) are for pitchers. And all of those pitchers have missed time due to injury.
WAR is not meant to be used to compare pitchers to hitters in any meaningful way. And it's not meant to be used to determine compensation. Supply and demand determines compensation. There are far fewer available aces around than there are hitters hitting consistently above, say, an .800-.850 OPS.
Yes, pitchers are more prone to injury, but the appeal of Burnes is his lack of an injury history. But even several aces who did eventually get injured, like Sabathia and Verlander, showed they could come back and still pitch at a high level. It's a risk worth taking for the best pitchers, which is why the best teams take this risk and it pays off so often. Sure they don't all work out, but teams take the risk for a good reason.
The risk with giving the big contracts instead to the position players is that they so often descend into mediocrity after only a few years or less. Too many to name but Manny Machado and Giancarlo Stanton are a prime examples of this. Their now measly production could much more easily be replaced by a much cheaper player. Ace level starting pitching is more difficult to replace.
For every Mookie Betts there are so many more regretful big contracts given to position players whose skills suddenly. And injury is a risk with elite long-term contract position players as well, not only an issue for pitchers.
I would not argue the Mike Trout contract was not worth it (though many would), but I would argue the contracts for Kershaw, Verlander, Sabathia, Greinke, Mussina, etc. were necessary because really no cheaper options could really replace their production, despite injuries for some of them.
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7 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
This is a crazy, crazy idea, but....what can we get for Holliday? He won't play SS for us. We've got Mayo and Norby as infielders knocking on the door in AAA. Imagine what he could bring back.
Trading Holliday could bring back just a number of good players from a number of selling teams. As an example, if the Padres made Dylan Cease available and they wanted Holliday (though I doubt they would since they have no openings up the middle), the Padres would have to give up more than Cease I think. It would cost them another player or two.
But trading Holliday is silly. Much better to trade Stowers, Norby and/or maybe Kjerstad, though I feel Elias will instead try to trade further down the prospect order.
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11 hours ago, ScGO's said:
I have a buddy who thinks Trout to O's is going to happen; just his hunch, but I like discussing it with him.
The return on Trout is going to be a very interesting conversation about money and prospects. Essentially 6 years would be left on his contract at around 35.5 mil annually. With Trout's contract and injury history, I wonder what Elias could negotiate for a fair return
Trout to the Orioles doesn't make much sense but Trout to the Phillies does. They need outfield help pretty badly and it's his hometown team.
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4 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
Should we offer him something to stay with the organization till after recovery and see how he is?
I think the O's should consider matching and upping what other teams might be offering. It might only be a minor league deal. Even if the prognosis is really good I doubt the O's do anything like a qualifying offer, but bringing him back on a small deal makes sense.
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Let the AL East be warned -- Austin Hays and Ramon Urias are hitting dingers.
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2 minutes ago, Jagwar said:
This is such a different team if Hays is hitting.
I always say that about Mullins, but I enjoy hearing it said about Hays too.
Are we worried about MLB-worst walk rate?
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