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emmett16

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Posts posted by emmett16

    Monday, May 20: Orioles at Cardinals

    in Game Threads

    Posted · Edited by emmett16

    4 minutes ago, Philip said:

    With two strikes, how common is it to deliberately throw out of the zone, hoping for a chase?

    And is there any way to tell whether it’s a purposeful ball or just a miss?

    Elementary question I know, but I never knew.

    You want to throw a “strike to ball” pitch.  Deliberately missing does no good and doesn’t help you set up your next pitch.  

    • Thanks 1

    Bullpen 2024

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, interloper said:

    I do have to agree with Roy on one thing, and that's that Cio should have been DFA'd first. He doesn't go multiple innings most of the time, he doesn't strike people out anymore, and he can't get out RHP (.891)... he gets a lot of ground balls, but we have a bunch of other guys that do that, too. I don't really understand the appeal. The team is dreaming on his 2022 season, but there's just not a lot of evidence to suggest that kind of production is around the corner.

    Meanwhile, Baumann at the very least can go multiple innings and save the bullpen on occasion. Puzzling to me. 

     

    15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

    Hyde is saying it will be a six man rotation soon so arguably Irvin doesn't count. DFA Perez would have made it 5/2 among the "permanent" bullpen guys. Plus Perez has stretches when he is lights out. If he finds it at the right time he could be a weapon in October. 

    I read an article that suggested Baumann was DFA'd because he is more valuable than Perez, could likely be traded, and they'd have more power over where he ends up.  There's a pitching log jam coming, and they'd like to acquire a high-end piece, so they want to start clearing out space and are doing so in an attempt to get value back instead of simply DFAing and losing the player.   

    David Rubenstein 2024

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    On 5/19/2024 at 1:49 AM, deward said:

    I'm looking at the Rays record over the past decade and I'm a bit confused over your definition of "have not won much". However, my argument is simple - teams that don't invest in payroll don't win championships in baseball. Over the past 21 years (I was going to do 20, but added the extra to include Florida's win in 2003), the average payroll position relative to the league of the eventual WS champ was 9th (see below)

    Year WS Champ OD Payroll rank
    2003 FLA 25
    2004 BOS 2
    2005 CWS 13
    2006 STL 11
    2007 BOS 2
    2008 PHI 12
    2009 NYY 1
    2010 SF 10
    2011 STL 11
    2012 SF 8
    2013 BOS 4
    2014 SF 7
    2015 KC 16
    2016 CHC 14
    2017 HOU 18
    2018 BOS 1
    2019 WAS 7
    2020 LAD 2
    2021 ATL 13
    2022 HOU 11
    2023 TEX

    9

     

    Only three of these teams had payrolls in the bottom half of league:

    Florida in 2003 had by far the lowest payroll, at 25th. Their payroll climbed to as high as 18th over the next couple of years, but they couldn't maintain their success and haven't made the playoffs since, outside of the COVID season.

    KC in 2015 had the 16th lowest payroll, barely below the median payroll for the year. They haven't been back to the playoffs since.

    Houston in 2017 had the 18th lowest payroll. This was their big breakthrough year after their tanking/rebuild, and they haven't been lower than 11th since, and as high as 4th.

     

    The trend is obvious. After the Marlins' miracle run in 2003, no team has won the WS with a payroll lower than 18th, and that team (Houston) is an obvious outlier as they were in the basically the same spot as the O's now (on the upswing from a full tear-down). While KC and Florida both had years where everything came together perfectly, they were unable to sustain their momentum. The O's were 23rd in payroll on Opening Day, and the current roster is good enough to win a championship, but history suggests they'll go the way of Florida and Kansas City if Rubenstein isn't willing to invest in the payroll. Consistently letting the talent drain out of your organization because you aren't willing to pay them won't lead to multiple championships and it won't keep fans engaged.

    Great post.  A lot of good info.  
     

    My argument is winning builds a brand more than a single player.  I never said anything about low payrolls.  I caution against making emotional decisions by signing fan favorites to long term expensive deals…..Kinda like How KC signed Gordon to a long term expensive deal in 2016 right after winning the WS in 2015.  As stated in your post, it didn’t work out. 
     

    Now, if we could somehow pull off the 7 year 26MM deal Perez signed early in his career, sure go for it.  But I don’t think anyone will be willing to do that. 
     

    @Yossarian how’d I do? 

    Baumann DFA

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

    Baumann is going to get claimed book it. I think we'll see Elias end up trading him for Cash Considerations.

    Image

    I’d take that. 

    Baumann DFA

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

    I’m the opposite. I think he gets claimed. Ton of bad teams would give him a look. 

    It’ll be curious to see what happens.  I see a guy that can’t throw strikes and when he does he gets hammered with meh stuff.  A 4.5 era 1.44 whip guy with significantly less Ks than IP is a dime a dozen in MLB.  

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