emmett16
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Posts posted by emmett16
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44 minutes ago, Say O! said:
For those who want to go down the stats nerd rabbit hole — FanGraphs library piece on when do metrics stabilize (with link outs to other site pieces on reliability).
I think many would be shocked at how many ABs it takes for metrics to stabilize.
“Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:
- 60 PA: Strikeout rate
- 120 PA: Walk rate
- 240 PA: HBP rate
- 290 PA: Single rate
- 1610 PA: XBH rate
- 170 PA: HR rate
- 910 AB: AVG
- 460 PA: OBP
- 320 AB: SLG
- 160 AB: ISO
- 80 BIP: GB rate
- 80 BIP: FB rate
- 600 BIP: LD rate
- 50 FBs: HR per FB
- 820 BIP: BABIP
“Stabilization” Points for Pitching Statistics:
- 70 BF: Strikeout rate
- 170 BF: Walk rate
- 640 BF: HBP rate
- 670 BF: Single rate
- 1450 BF: XBH rate
- 1320 BF: HR rate
- 630 BF: AVG
- 540 BF: OBP
- 550 AB: SLG
- 630 AB: ISO
- 70 BIP: GB rate
- 70 BIP: FB rate
- 650 BIP: LD rate
- 400 FB: HR per FB
- 2000 BIP: BABIP
For one, barrels (for hitters) tend to stabilize more quickly than do outcome-based stats. We’ve seen before that exit velocity (one of the ingredients in the barrel recipe) tends to stabilize fairly quickly for hitters. “Barrel rate” (barrels/balls hit fair) is similarly quick to stabilize. Using the Kuder-Richardson 21 formula, “barrel rate” actually hit a reliability of .70 within a sample of 50 batted balls. As a point of comparison, HR/balls hit fair did so around 100 batted balls.
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3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
McDermott could be held back because of control but I think he’s got the ceiling of a Bradish type of starter or mid rotation. I just don’t see that ceiling with Povich.
I agree his ceiling is higher. But I believe he has a lower floor as well.
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7 hours ago, RZNJ said:
My prediction is that Povich never makes 25 starts in any ML season because of ineffectiveness. Might take a few years to get an idea. I understand, the metrics like his stuff. I don’t get that warm, fuzzy feeling when I watch him pitch. Nothing he throws knocks my socks off. On the other hand, I love McDermott’s stuff.
McDermott
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command FV 55 / 60 50 / 55 55 / 60 30 / 30 30 / 40 40
Povich
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command FV 40 / 50 50 / 55 50 / 55 35 / 50 35 / 60 45 I like his stuff, too. But with his lack of control and inefficiency, he might be lucky to get 25 starts in his MLB career, let alone one season. My prediction is that Povich's # of careers starts will dwarf McDermott's. I hope I'm wrong, I like them both a bunch and am very happy they are in our system.
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15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Present command is 35 and future command is a 60? I’’ve never seen such a disparity between present and future ESPECIALLY for a 24 yo. I’ve seen him pitch multiple times. I’ve never seen the nasty curveball.
Check K #4 last night in video posted on first page.
He was around a 2.0 BB9 guy through college and with Minnesota. The Orioles made some changes and the BB9 went up. The control is in there.
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6 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Great start and no walks is encouraging but I don’t see how someone with a 90-92 mph fastball and, generally, not plus command is going to survive in the big leagues.
Because he can spin it and the fastball plays up. All his pitchers are MLB avg. or above avg. future value. He turns 24 next week and still has room to fill out a bit. The curve ball is nasty.
Cole Irvin
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command FV 45 / 45 45 / 45 45 / 45 55 / 55 55 / 55 35+
Cade Povich
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command FV 40 / 50 50 / 55 50 / 55 35 / 50 35 / 60 45 -
17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Threw 66% of his pitches for strikes.
Even more impressive was 74 pitches through 6.
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First game in the books for Povich.
6 ip 5 k 0bb 49/74Let’s hope he can repeat next outing.
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Grant is the man.
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These guys look like they are straight out of Kauffman’s development academy in the late 60s & early 70s. Speed, speed, and more speed.
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3 hours ago, interloper said:
Yeah that short hop play from Gunnar was do or die and he did the damn thing. Stud.
That play was so difficult. I did not think he was going to make it. Do or die with runner on 3rd two outs, pretty fast running on a chop and he stormed in to get the best hop he could, still didn't get a perfect short hop. I was amazed he pulled it off.
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To say I wasn’t impressed is an understatement. First K he fooled the guy who was looking slider. Bad hitting approach. I was not expecting gas, but was caught off guard by 92-94. I will say, it did look like he was hitting spots for the most part. It wasnt an encouraging outing But I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and am not gonna write him off after one game.
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3 hours ago, Since1984 said:
Do not have to do it now and I understand the point about age. Would you extend Bregman this offseason?
Are you comparing a guy that put up 7.9 WAR in his age 24 season after putting up 6 WAR in less than a season and a half before that to a guy that played 68 games at a 1.2WAR pace in his age 24 season?
I love Westy but I don’t think his comp is a guy who has an outside shot at the HOF.
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6 hours ago, Spy Fox said:
I'm less sure about Norby but Cowser's ceiling is absolutely above 2.5 WAR and above what Hays has provided to this point in his career. Cowser's minor league OBP is almost 100 points higher than Hays' was (.420 to .326). I'm not sure he'll do it but if he can translate most of that skill to the big leagues the ceiling value is very high.
*This year, as stated in my post. There are no major projection outlets predicting anything close to that. Could he do it, sure. But that’d be his ceiling.
Hays has a much better chance of outperforming him this year.
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I think it will come down to who can stay on the field longer and avoid injuries. They are both darn good.
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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:
Yea I heard the second one on the radio. Sounded like it was real close. That’s good. That what I want to see. You aren’t always going to get them out but a strong competitive throw will get enough guys out.
On steal of 3b It looked to me like the ball beat him to the bag, but it was a good slide/bad tag by Urias. Not any easy play by any stretch of the imagination to make, and again, the guy got a crazy jump off of Kimbrel. It was an impressive throw. That guy was lightning fast and good lord Witt is fast. Witt is the real deal. Witts steal in the 8th was off Cano and he's not the quickest guy to the plate either and throws a ton of low outside change-ups which are incredibly difficult to make a good throw on.
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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I didn’t see the 2 SB in the 9th inning. I know the one at third was being reviewed and was close.
But overall, we need Adley to throw better. He has a real bad throw on the Witt SB earlier in the game.
The jump was insane. Adley got nothing on the throw, but that's about as quick as I've seen a guy release a ball. He had no chance. The steals in the 9th were all on Kimbrel. Super slow to the plate, you could see Adley looking into the dugout after the first one as if to say, I had no chance.
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Stiven Acevedo is league average age this year. I wonder if he can put it together and have a mini break out year. I was impressed with him last year in the games I saw him play. He's a physical guy that really packs a punch and moves well for a big guy. If he can get more contact, he could put up some impressive power/speed numbers. At 6'4'' he's a big dude and super athletic.
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15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
We dropped the ball on this one.
Astros just no hit the Blue Jays.
Hell of way for Espada to get his first win.
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4 hours ago, Just Regular said:
Dean Kremer is going to have a tough time achieving his 200 innings pitched goal if he has to get five outs an inning.
Not one of the errors, but I also wondered if Mateo's arm over Westburg's may have been enough to get that double play on Witt.
My views from the stands tonight:
1. The ball got stuck in in Gunnar's glove. Witt beat it by a good bit, wasn't really close. I don't think a better arm makes the play. The second Gunnar hesitated it was over.
2. Urias's ball was one of those terrible in-betweeners, he got stuck on his heels and should have kept coming at it for a better hop. Saw that coming the second he stopped moving.
3. They ran right in Ced's face, runner didn't hesitate. Ced went pretty hard for it, for sure could have gone harder, but the throw was to the wrong side of the bag. Infielders are getting used to the new no block the base rule and I think we'll see some funky tags/positioning to start the year, but all in all was a pretty bad throw, can't miss 3rd base side on that throw.
4. Hays did not seem to be going all out for the blooper in the 9th. I think he thought Gunnar had it all the way and had an "oh shit' moment at the last second. If he went hard for it from the beginning it should have been caught, that ball was up there for what seemed like an eternity. Don't see that many balls with so much hang time not get caught.
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3 hours ago, emmett16 said:
Hays is 28y/o in his prime. He’s averaged >2.5 WAR last three years. He could conceivably do even better this year. 2.5 WAR is an absolute ceiling for Norby/Cowser. You’re significantly underrating Hays. I realize there are some shiny new toys, but there is very little chance he gets outperformed by either or a combination of Cowser & Norby this year.
@forphase1 what’s confusing about my post? You think Cowser & Norby would best a 2.5 WAR this year?
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1 minute ago, justD said:
Must be so fun to be there right now!
So cold - almost feel sorry for Westy !!!
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Shut em up Westy !!!
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Shut em up Westy !!!
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Shut em up Westy !!!
4/3 vs. Royals
in Game Threads
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Very close