foxfield

Pine Cone....

In the saga of Cease vs Everyone else, Getz turns out to be the biggest loser. Tune in this summer, when the Orioles refuse to Cease their pursuit and Getz their man, sending Ramon Urias to the White Sox for Cease.

There is always risk involved in trading. But the Orioles traded for an elite pitcher and arguably still have the number one farm system in baseball. Burnes could perform poorly, but this is a fantastic deal and caps a simply unbelievable 24 hours to be an Oriole fan. Lift off has arrived in a big way. And as an old friend used to say...I'm just... Hangin on for the ride.

If this is what 24 hours without Roch is like...

I do not think it would reasonable to expect Cal Ripken to have any real working capacity in the front office. His participation is much more likely to be a sign of roots here in Baltimore. And his position is likely to be more of a figurehead. But of course this remains to be seen.

This is a well crafted ownership group. It is nearly bullet proof. It has plenty of financial backing beyond the price, it has local ties, it has diversity, it has past Oriole history. If this group runs the Orioles as tightly as this group and deal have been put together... Well, I will just say I am pretty optimistic. This proposed sale has uncovered some pretty large bills that are coming due however. And while the ultimate transfer will come after the death of PA, it is likely not far into the future. John Angelos may be the db many here are claiming, but his stewardship of the Orioles over 5 years has set the table in a way very few franchises have ever been prepared at the time of their sale. That, aside from his pompous other failings, will always be his legacy here. And it will look better over time if this group successfully delivers titles. As for Peter...the small amount of good he brought Baltimore was destroyed during the 14 Years of Darkness and his meddling in the only two periods of success shortened both of those small windows. Three decades. It appears to be over. Hallelujah.

Are you trying to say we are not getting Snell and Montgomery and Cease and the Elias, Adley, Gunnar and Jackson extensions before pitchers report? Pessimist!

Well I’ll be damned. I had being abducted by an alien on my 2024 bingo card for yesterday.

That's going to be the celebration when O's pitchers give up a homer.....Shake it off! *Ducks and Runs

I am not looking at only the positive side of things. I am actually open to a much wider range of possible solutions. But you are looking at one side...the most negative impact of not making a move today. To win now at whatever cost. The most positive outlook solution for the O's this offseason would be that at least one regular is traded to make room for someone, and at least one trade for a good/controlled starter. We do not disagree on that point. Your urgency is misplaced however. The 24-26 year old prospects may well be the most tradable asset today. But maybe tomorrow it would correctly be someone else. The value isn't erased if that 26 year old prospect plays here for 6 years. It's only lost if you could have had X if you moved him in a deal. You don't know what X is. Nor do I. The hypothetical of what you or I would move today is irrelevant. You say that we all need to have the mindset that if we lose them, so be it...we will replace them. I agree 100%. But if you truly believe that, it also follows that if I spend that asset by stocking it on the shelf and it loses value....so be it...we will replace them. It really is the same thing. Trading player X could possibly get us nowhere....or it might win the World Series. They could trade everyone....the risk would be does what you get back get you where you need? Maybe it does.....like getting Frank Robinson....and maybe it doesn't...like getting Glenn Davis. My point isn't that you are wrong and I am right, it is that your solution is narrow and assumes one outcome. There are many paths and many possible outcomes. Not making a move today does not really change that...even if player X goes away today. The Orioles could trade with Chicago or Miami or Seattle or Cleveland or Los Angeles....and get a pitching upgrade. And it may still happen. But it is a fallacy to think it has to and it is definitely a fallacy to think it has to occur now. I am not saying we don't need a pitcher. Or that we are so good we shouldn't try. None of this changes the need for pitching. It's sort of like needing a shovel when it snows. When there is a foot of snow on the ground, the availability and price of shovels goes up. Some folks will buy em anyway. Some won't. Neither one is the best way to operate, neither one is wrong. We are going to have to pay for it, even if we don't like the price...or we will have to find another way...or we will have to make do with what we have. The possibilities are still pretty expansive, regardless of your level of positivity or negativity.

Again, if the Orioles are playing a 27 year old Ortiz in two years and he does the job, I could care less about his age. I am not worried about replacing talent. On the field or via a trade. I am worried about putting the best team on the field. If the Orioles are stockpiling 30 year old "career" prospects with no ML experience, then I will be worried. What you are calling an immediate problem, is the everyday life of the GM of the Dodgers. Talent isn't a wad of cash in the pocket you either spend or lose. You can deploy assets to get what you want on the field just as easily as you can spend them in a trade. I am not advocating for holding on to everyone. I am simply saying the handwringing over this as an immediate problem today is poorly focused worry. If Elias trades 6 guys tomorrow....I will assume he has found assets he has decided are worth the risk...and I will be ok with that too. These are ongoing challenges, and they are challenges that come with the acquisition of deep talent. The result of which affords him the luxury of patience. In spite of the higher stakes. If no moves are made today...then my presumption is there was no deal worthy of making. The Ravens made many plays yesterday. But the execution was not as sharp as the Chiefs. I am less concerned with making plays....and more concerned with good execution.

You sound like you are worried about the ranking of prospects. I don't care about perceived value. I care about the talent on the field and in the system. And I care about how successfully they manage the coming transactions and to that...perceived value does of course have importance. But if Santander has little trade value...or Mountcastle...or anyone else who is going to be gone in a short amount of time, then they will need to be replaced with someone as good or better in order to remain competitive. You know that. I know that. What I don't believe is that there is a sell by date on any of the specific people currently on the roster or in the minor leagues today. Letting all of the current roster folks just leave would not be ideal, but I am also not going to waste time criticizing something that hasn't happened yet. IF Adley or Gunnar do not sign long term deals, at some point they will have a sell by date. Not today and not next year. As to the prospects, I think the outcome is much more complex than you and others make it. There are more bodies than we can play today. Everyone sees that. But that is what happens when an organization amasses a strong pipeline of talent. These problems...as you see them will be solved by action or ultimately in a worst case scenario, by inaction. But that assumes that no moves are ever made. I just do not see that as being the most likely path forward. And because of that I am not afraid that this issue wasn't solved yesterday.

I am saying it will work itself out isn't simplistic, it's completely factual. Knowing how it works is what is unknowable. Value is important, but what is on the field is what matters. I want moves, just like everyone else but.... If Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Santander, Urias, McKenna, O’Hearn and Mateo are all simply allowed to walk and are replaced ultimately by Ortiz, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Holliday, Basallo, Norby, Stowers etc....that isn't a bad outcome. Whether it is the most desirable outcome is really the question. But IF Norby stays one more year in our system and then plays for 6 years as a much better version of McKenna...If Mayo holds 3B, and Holliday ends at 2b...and Ortiz and Westburg are players off the bench.....Or is Mayo goes to 1B and Westburg 2b or 3B.....these are not problems. The declining value is only perceived value as it pertains to trading. Of course some of these guys are going to exceed our expectations, some of them will not....some may yet be traded soon...or later. The idea that accumulating talent in a major league system is a bad thing is poor judgement. When the Orioles are failing to meet expectations on the field because they have mismanaged the roster, it will fair to critique Elias for how he has operated. And there is no question he has entered a different phase of his helmsmanship of the franchise. But there are at least 8 guys who are non pitchers....with varying degrees of talent, that no one here really sees being on the roster for more than a year or two. That's before you get to the pitchers...where we are good, but not great. Regardless of how this off season ends, there is still a massive amount of change coming. It's not simplistic to say that. When it happens isn't known, but the timeline is set in a way. How it happens is going to have a big impact on how Elias is judged here long term. But having ML quality position players at 26 in AAA should not be an indictment against anyone. It's a luxury that teams like the Dodgers have carried for sometime. BBref shows the Dodgers AAA roster last year as holding an average age of 29 hitters at 26.7 and 53 pitchers with an average age of 28.6. The handwringing over answers that will come not being known today is poppycock. The debate should be based on what happens on the field and what does not happen on the field.

Well you know what they say….keep your friends close…and your enemies closer!

You know there was a time, not that long ago, when the Orioles entire organization didn’t have three guys like Norby, Ortiz and Stowers. And now it’s an injustice to have guys like this in the system? Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Santander. Starters who will be replaced in the next 12-24 months. Urias, McKenna, O’Hearn and Mateo are veteran bench/former starting players who are likely to be replaced in the same timeframe. All of the players above have made contributions to the Orioles recent success. Having guys to replace them who are as good or better is many things. An injustice is not one of them. All of your hand wringing over the timing of something that IS going to work itself out in time is odd. It has been awhile since the team has had this amount of depth but finding career encompassing answers for each of these pieces simply is not necessary in January of 2024. It won’t be in June either. The resolution of these issues will happen erratically or organically but it will happen.

I am certainly not saying it's likely. I am simply saying that the possibility of both a trade and a signing, one of whom would start 20+ games is not out of the question. And there is nothing in my morning green tea except home harvested honey.

The above is silly and you know that. It would be suicide for him to publicly say he is hamstrung by ownership. In reality, his stubbornness is an indication that he is still on board with the limitations placed on him by ownership. It would be a much worse sign for him to unload folks to be all in for 2024. A true indication that he no longer see's himself here for the long haul. It is also silly to extrapolate that since Elias has done a fantastic job of building a contender that he automatically will navigate the real time challenges to maximize that and keep his window extended into perpetuity. That is his stated goal, and while he has no post season wins to celebrate, he has earned the benefit of the doubt regarding patience from us. Your post above simply sounds petulant and childish, but mostly impatient. But it certainly does not reflect accurately what Angelos or Elias have said they are doing. If we are here next year, with no post season wins, and no contracts over a year or two, well I think there will be more legitimate questions about Elias' performance. But where we are, from where we were, is pretty special and should be appreciated. IMHO

I think the possibility still exists to get not one but two pitchers before ST. One each by FA and trade. One of which will get 20+ starts.

Ok, well as I first said, I thing overall folks are pretty much in agreement. I don’t think people are hesitant at all until you push into the top three or take the nonspecific 3-4 guys and specify them. I do not think people are hesitant to add talent in the context of not giving up too much. It’s clearer once you pull the top three, but it’s the specifics on who that 3rd or 4th guy is that begins to turn the scales for some. That’s pretty normal I think. And for some it’s too much and for others it isn’t. But again, I am neither hesitant nor afraid to walk away if there isn’t an acceptable deal. Of course we don’t know those details and unless a deal is done we may never know. Be not afraid my friend.

So you are pulling back win at all cost and return to win now if we can wisely invest in more talent?

Are people hesitant to win now? Or are they not willing to win now at all costs? Because that isn’t the same thing. I don’t think where the team was in 2012 or 2014 are even relevant to where the team is now. You can imagine who might look at the teams the same but I would hesitate to take seriously a comparison of then vs now. You seem to be arguing against yourself now. You would not trade Holliday for Cease or Mayo or Basallo. But reports have had at least 2 of them linked to Chicagos ask. If that is winning at all cost, Elias is right to move on. You know that, I know that and everyone reading here knows that. There is literally a gulf between your comment that people are hesitant to win now vs people are not willing to win at all costs. And the quote marks don’t really change the context. I think everyone wants an improved team. It’s already good, but more can and should be done. But anyone talking about winning now at all cost is not to be taken seriously. You don’t take that seriously. I don’t understand the reference.

The point is there is no hesitancy. Virtually no one does not want to win and win now. But unlike some who see every choice as either the easy and obvious answer or the stupid choice, some of us see gray. My apologies for being longwinded and unclear.

Dream until your dream comes TRUE!!!!

I don’t think the answers are as binary as you make them. It’s easy for all of us to agree on the need to improve the starting rotation. And obviously the easiest way to do that is to spend money, which we all assume is not really an option…but we really don’t know that with absolute certainty. I am not afraid of Elias pulling the trigger to get Cease or anyone else who might give us that improvement and might not. Those transaction costs and risks are part of the deal. I am no more afraid of that not working than I am of it not working to simply improve with what we have. But I am also not afraid of Elias deciding that three of his top 10 plus maybe a couple others is more than he wants to spend. I also believe that judging the results on the field are more import than winning the polls in preseason or on message boards. It’s just my opinion, but I think much of the hashing here is splitting hairs. Maybe on X or something people may be more uninformed and more irrational. I don’t know. But I really don’t think folks here are that much in disagreement. But maybe I’m just an optimist. Either way, I agree we are good now. And could be better tomorrow. Or next week. Or next month. There are still many pathways that can lead this club to higher ground.

No but I think you would pull this post and say see I told you so if he had a 17 year career with 69.9WAR.