Filmstudy

This isn't way off, but I am seeing somewhat worse since last AS break. Per PFR: 2023 2nd half: .667 OPS 2024 so far: .349 OPS That covers 254 PAs. I think we're way past the "let's be patient" point, so I don't see why May 1st or the AS break or the trade deadline or the end of the season or "somewhere down the road" is appropriate. The intermediate solution is available right now (at no cost to service time considerations) in the form of a platoon. If the team goes to a platoon, Hays' defensive impact will still be maximized by innings as a def replacement and the fact he'll close out games for Cowser when he is pulled due to a LHP.

I look forward to see if the Orioles have information to publish on the longest rain delays in team history, particularly when the game was subsequently played in its entirety.

There is a confluence of circumstance right now that should make the Orioles close to a decision on Hays (as well as Mateo's future in the outfield) 1. The club has not been hitting the last 4 games and the overall lack of offense is frustrating despite 2 nice comebacks 2. Cowser is hitting well in very limited opportunities (despite the key whiff on Wed night) 3. The entire prospect-laden top 5 of the Norfolk lineup is plastering the ball in a collective middle finger to the demotions 4. Hays himself is not hitting and hasn't since the middle of last season Yes, the club has limited options and a big sunk cost in Hays but I think one choice is to start treating him like Roenicke relative to Lowenstein. When those 2 were the LF platoon for the 1979-83 Orioles, that meant Roenicke always started against a LHP and occasionally vs a RHP and Lowenstein (almost) never batted against a LHP. When Lowenstein started, that often meant Roenicke entered and finished games and had more ABs because Roenicke could continue vs a RHP. Over those 5 seasons: Roenicke: 1897 PA, .819 OPS (126 OPS+) Lowenstein: 1426 PA, .866 OPS (139 OPS+) If Hays and Cowser had the same relationship this season, I'd be cool with it, even though the less potent hitter was getting more ABs, because I think it would give Cowser the best chance for success vs ML pitching and Hays could hopefully add some defensive value to mitigate the value difference. One important addition. I don't really give a FF about Hays "reverse splits" over any recent period of time because 1) he's 107 OPS+ vs LHP career and 97 OPS+ vs RHP and 2) He's not a good enough hitter to give a damn about what his splits are with the other options the Orioles have. The tipping point for me is the fact that 3 additional prospects (Norby, Kjerstad, and Stowers) are being held up by Hays and the current handling of that (non-) platoon. Yes, it's a great problem to have, but IMO the Orioles need to make a commitment to a different split of playing time within the next few weeks.

I look at the lineup and think how nice it would be to have Holliday for Urias, but Cowser for Hays would also be an upgrade. Colton needs to start getting playing time vs RHPs.

It may have been covered previously, but the Orioles seemed to be all in to win in 9 innings. They might have needed to bat Kjerstad for Mateo and I'm not sure who would have gone to 3B at that point. That's another reason not to be trigger happy on a very marginal Frazier for Westburg platoon benefit.

TB won't get any September Effect from Toronto like they are getting from the Angels. The Jays desperately need those wins as much (or more) as the Rays do. They probably need 6 more wins to feel comfortable making the tournament with the Rangers playing the Mariners 7 times yet.

The Orioles Magic Numbers vs each AL East team: TB: 10 Tor: 2 NYY: Eliminated Bos: Eliminated Opp Magic Numbers: TB: 15 Tor: 24 With the pool leagues big in Baltimore, this may make sense to folks: 1) There are 24 results remaining in total for both teams (13 O's games, 11 Rays games) 2) The Orioles need 10 of those games to go their way, while the Rays need 15 3) One can think of the Orioles and Rays as a best-of-24 competition where the O's need to finish no worse than 10-14 and the Rays need to have the results fall in their favor by at least 15-9.

All great ones until Sunday. My vote probably goes to Saturday, since it got the standings all tied up. For some reason, the Syracuse station decided to play a movie instead of the ballgame on Sunday. Incredibly frustrating, but so was the game.

We do not have the benefit of hindsight from the end of this season, but with the tiebreaker win and re-establishing the 1-game lead, this is the most important O's win in many years. Let's review: I do not believe there are any from 2017-2022 that are close. In 2016, they won a WC by 2.5 and lost the ability to play that game at home by losing the season series 10-9 to TOR. In 2014 they won the division by 12, so they didn't really have any critical games in hindsight during the regular season. In 2013 they finished 5th in the WC race (2 WC teams) by 6.5 games. In 2012 they won the 2nd WC and the 2 series which were huge were the 3-game sweep of the Rays at home 9/11-13 and the win Sat 9/29 at Bos which pulled them into a tie with the Yankees with 4 to play (the O's won 2 while the Yankees won all 4 remaining) 1998-2011 There were virtually no important wins 1997 They won the division wire-to-wire, but they also blew 7.5 games of a 9.5 game lead on 9/6. The sweep at the Braves in June (6/13-15) pushed their record to 45-19 and made us believe they could compete with anyone. In 1996 they clinched the AL's only WC on the last Saturday of the season at Toronto on Roberto Alomar's HR the night after the spitting incident. And yes, this might be the last regular season win as big as Saturday night. 1990-95 had big games and some big wins, but nothing of the magnitude of Saturday night. 1989 my choice for the biggest win of the year is probably the comeback from 6-0 down at Boston that kept them in 1st place a while longer. Similar situation with the win vs Toronto on 8/20 to increase their lead from 0.5 to 1.5. Let's hear some other nominations over this era or perhaps go back further.

I hope this is exactly what they try next. I'm not expecting much from Means, but he's worth a try at this time.

2 things about the list: 1. The Orioles have only won the league of division once with 95 or fewer wins (1974). They've also had 3 WCs in a total of 13 such seasons. With 96+ wins, they've missed the playoffs 3 times in 12 such seasons, including twice with divisional play (1977, 1980). 2. I don't think Fangraphs' projection systems are doing a good job accounting for either the September Effect (good teams/contenders tend to play much better in September) or using what I would call recent historical experience to project rest-of-season results. Their system projects the Orioles will play .484 ball the rest of the way, the lowest win pct in the AL East. That would bring the Orioles in at 99.1 wins. I'll take the over right now on 99.5 wins in part because I think the Rays are likely to be pushing the Orioles (no worse than 5-6 games out and O's have yet to clinch) for most of the rest of the month if not all of it. Under those conditions, I expect a good boost from the September Effect as the organization maximizes win decisions the rest of the way.

Magic numbers for the AL East: TB: 22 (T) Tor: 14 Bos: 11 (T) NYY: 7 (T) = magic number will be 1 less if the Orioles can win the season series.

The Cubs lost the 1906 WS 4-2, but with home games alternating, so no sweep there. They won the WS in 1907 (4-0-1) and 1908 (4-1) so there was not some sort of break in the postseason, which may or may not have been included in the Elias research. One issue with all of this is definitions, particularly as they apply to games and the postseason, but whether regular season or including post season, the Cubs streak appears legit.

It's actually the 1906-09 Cubs and it came from the Orioles game notes (they say they are quoting Elias). Link: https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/mlb/ghot6q9irbon7cx13wbg.pdf I just verified the calendar length of the streak from 5/31/06 through 4/29/09. I did not count the number of series or games in each, but that's the span.

Bringing the Unswept information current through the win over the Angels on 9/4/23: It has now been 84 series (presuming Angels series is completed as scheduled) since the Orioles have been swept in a series of 2+ games. The last time it occurred was 5/13-15/2022 at the Tigers. Since that time, they have played series of: 5 games: 1 4 games: 15 3 games: 62 2 games: 6 1 game: 3 times (lost 2 of 3 of those single games) Assuming each of the next 2 games are played as scheduled, the Orioles will reach 266 games without being swept. Considering only the series of 2+ games, if the games were each coin flips, the chance to avoid a series sweep over that time would be approximately 1 in 60,166. When the next game at Anaheim is completed, the Orioles will officially pass the 1922-24 Yankees for the longest unswept streak in AL history (currently tied at 83). The 3 longer streaks in NL history: 1942-44 Cardinals: 124 1905-09 Cubs: 115 1903-05 Giants: 105

It's great to have Mountcastle back and hitting, but I'm still a little surprised this team has held up as well as they have against LHP. The Angels will start 3 lefties in this series.

In terms of balls actually hit behind the imaginary past wall, this is likely accurately represented. To say this is a reflection of the way the wall has impacted the Orioles would be entirely false (which I doubt the article claims). I was a big proponent of the new dimensions in terms of reducing pitch count and high-stress pitches in particular in the park. The Orioles have not yet taken advantage of the new dimensions in terms of stockpiling LHP the way some old Yankees teams did, but I think they've adapted better to the need for better OF defense than the opponents in aggregate.

The Orioles hold the postwar record now. They took it when the passed the 2003-05 Braves.

Bringing the Unswept information current through the win over the White Sox on 8/29/23: It has now been 82 series since the Orioles have been swept in a series of 2+ games. The last time it occurred was 5/13-15/2022 at the Tigers. Since that time, they have played series of: 5 games: 1 4 games: 15 3 games: 60 (includes the White Sox series played as scheduled) 2 games: 6 1 game: 3 times (lost 2 of 3 of those single games) Assuming each of the next 2 games are played as scheduled, the Orioles will reach 260 games without being swept. Considering only the series of 2+ games, if the games were each coin flips, the chance to avoid a series sweep over that time would be approximately 1 in 46,064.

I agree. Always better to have a chance to "fail forward". He'll be in position to make adjustments in the offseason.

Yes, I recall it. I think a woman who had not been to an O's game in a very long time (might have been 25 years?) was entered automatically from an ATM transaction. It also reminds me of Bouton's practical joke on Fred Talbot, who hit a $25,000 HR for the 1969 Pilots. One of the best parts of Ball Four.

Orioles Magic Numbers against all division foes through games of Saturday 8/19: TB: 36 Tor: 30 Bos: 29 NYY: 23

Bringing the Unswept information current through the win over the A's on 8/19/23: It has now been 79 series since the Orioles have been swept in a series of 2+ games. The last time it occurred was 5/13-15/2022 at the Tigers. Since that time, they have played series of: 5 games: 1 4 games: 15 3 games: 57 (includes the A's series played as scheduled) 2 games: 6 1 game: 3 times (lost 2 of 3 of those single games) Assuming each of the next 2 games are played as scheduled, the Orioles will reach 248 games without being swept. Considering only the series of 2+ games, if the games were each coin flips, the chance to avoid a series sweep over that time would be approximately 1 in 30,859.

Tyler started for Bowie tonight (with Mullins): IP: 3.1 H: 2 BB: 1 R/ER: 1/1 Good start, but I am wondering why he's not being used in relief if his IP limit is an issue.

Magic numbers vs each AL East opponent: TB: 48 Tor: 43 NY: 40 Bos: 41 Still potential tiebreaker wins vs TB and Bos that could reduce each of those numbers by 1 more.