Filmstudy

I'm not putting down Roy for saying it, just expressing my own desire to forget about Rose.

I'd like to start saying "That play reminded me of Jorge Mateo, always looking to vulch an extra base!" or "That play reminded me of 1969 Rod Carew and the 7 times he stole home when defenses would get lackadaisical". I personally am ready to leave discussion of Pete Rose for the void, since there are so many awful things (Ray Fosse, Harrelson, gambling) that require qualification whenever I want to say something good about him. I'd be interested in your order of these, Roy...who did the most damage to the reputation of baseball ranking Hal Chase, Pete Rose, and Barry Bonds.

Looks like you just beat me to it, but that was a huge PA for Cowser. I have a lot more belief left in Cowser to grow into a star this season or next, but that was a huge moment for the Orioles regardless. Think Dave Criscione circa 1977.

Like those and I'll add the SH by Frazier and SF by Cowser. Frazier got it down where there was no chance to get Hicks at 3rd. Cowser has had some problems with contact and results, but came through with a well-hit ball at the right time and gave the Orioles a chance that Bautista closed. Some thanks to Paredes for not making a clean dig of the ball on what should have been a pickoff of Hicks at 3B.

Now 70 straight series of 2+ games without being swept, spanning 222 games, including: 2 games: 6 times 3: 50 4: 13 5: 1 Assuming the games were all coin flips, the chance of it happening randomly is 1 in 10,651. The Braves (since 1950) record of 232 consecutive games between series sweeps is now just 3 series away (@TBR 4, @Phi 3, NYY 3) and they could set the record @Tor (4). Still a tough row to hoe. The 2 teams that remain ahead of the Orioles in terms of games between sweep series are Tor (92-93) and Atl (03-05). Both had playoff games included in that run and the Orioles have passed the Jays and tied the Braves now in terms of regular-season runs.

Brent Suter is 33-year-old, 2-month rental with a $3M contract this season. I think he should come at a similar price to Fujinami in terms of talent exchanged. Raley is a 35-year old with a club option year in 2024 (approx $5M). The Mets might expect a little something for him (maybe 1 prospect in the 20s such as Ardoin, Young, or Tavera), but he should not break the prospect bank either.

He figured some things out and it looks like the A's did as well by reducing the length of his appearances. He's been far more effective in a 1-inning role. He's a 29-year-old rookie and a UFA after the 2023 season per Spotrac, so I assume that was part of his deal with the A's to be able to test free agency after 1 year. Elias did a good job of finding a motivated seller and the A's were looking to dump a little over $1M in salary yet to be paid in 2023 in exchange for a non-top-30 prospect. I'm with you @Frobby, I think he'll be relied on and has a high upside for the stretch and I'd be happy if the Orioles made another similar deal for a LHP.

Amen. So sick of hearing about multiple top 100 prospects going for rentals.

I'm on board with this. Snell and Hader (both 2-month rentals) who the Padres are looking to dump to save $30M in pro-rata salary and get a modest prospect return. Given the limited term I think they should come fairly cheap. Perhaps Norby and some 2 of Hall, Rhodes, and Bencosme nets both. That's a lot of young talent to give up, but it would satisfy a need for LHP the Orioles have and provide a temporary adaptation to OPACY needs.

Who did you have in mind as a single prospect to trade for Goldschmidt? Before you answer... Goldschmidt: 1. Age 35 years, 319 days 2. Makes $22M pro rata the rest of this year and $26M next year, UFA 25 3. OPS+: 132, RAA: 14, WAA%: .516 4. Position: 1B 5. Subjective: He's a RHB who could help protect the Orioles predominantly LH lineup, but he may or may not have difficulty in OPACY. Trading for him effectively eliminates Mountcastle, who is the primary reason the Orioles stats vs LH pitchers look as decent as they do. Santander 1. Age 28 years, 271 days (7 years younger) 2. Makes $7.4M pro rata the rest of this year and perhaps $12-13M in 2024, UFA 25 3. OPS+: 134, RAA: 8, WAA%: .510 4. Position: RF/1B 5. Subjective: He has not been as good at OPACY as he has on the road in 2023, but his splits were reversed and even more pronounced in 2022. In any case, I think we have a pretty good idea that OPACY does not ruin him the way it could a RH slugger. I can buy the notion that Goldscmidt is still a little better than Santander for the remainder of 2023, but do I really want the risk that will persist through 2024 at the enormous price tag and unknown OPACY impact? Nope. All that means for sure is that I would not trade Santander for Goldschmidt straight up. I still think Goldschmidt would help the Orioles down the stretch, but if the Orioles could not get a decent offer for Tony T, I'm thinking the tag on Goldschmidt should not be a top 100 prospect. Sam Basallo (97) and Coby Mayo (75) are the last 2 Orioles in the MLB pipeline top 100. Does anyone really want to give up either of them for Goldschmidt?

Sure, 10th to 12th is definitely possible. That's just 1 5th-place vote (possibly from a Baltimore writer). I'd love to see him in the top 5 overall, but I'd want long odds on that horse.

When trading top-100 prospect position players to fill a specific "need", please remember the names Frank Duffy, Mike Boddicker, Ugueth Urbina, Aubrey Huff, Rich Harden, and Larry Anderson. If you just have to have Ohtani for 65 games (approximately), remember you could be hearing the names Norby and Ortiz for 10 years as a DP combination and another 25 after that in articles on the worst ever deadline trades. That fear shouldn't be a reason not to make the trade, but the relative value of those players sure as hell should be. For the record, I don't think there is a team that will offer a package as good as Norby and Ortiz for Ohtani and if there is one, I expect the Angels will be all over it. In addition to trying to get some value for their (apparently) departing star, the Angels can save $12M in salary.

He's pitched well indeed, but I don't see him getting to the top 5 of CY votes if his record is something like 12-6 (6-4 now). That said, he could pile up some wins in the remainder of the season.

This. Either Kyle, the offense, or both need to come through with a big game tomorrow. With a game every day through 7/26, the Orioles could really use a few laughers sprinkled in.

Cool research/list. For teams that first reach +20 any time in the first 130 games, I think it has probably been uncommon if not quite rare for such teams to finish below +20. The reason (in part at least) is September effect where good teams play better and bad teams play worse due to the impact of the trade deadline and playing for the postseason rather than to audition talent in the many years prior to service-time manipulation and smaller Sept rosters. Being in the AL East, the Orioles have had a chance to play against some of the all-time choking Red Sox teams. Even that historic 2011 team reached +20 after 90 games (55-35) and was only -2 the rest of the way to fall out of the playoffs. I was sure the 1974 Red Sox would have been +20 at some point, but they topped out at +16 (70-54 on 8/23) before they went -10 the rest of the way. The 63-65 Orioles ran them down with a 28-6 stretch drive to leave them in 3rd place, 8 back. The 1978 Red Sox who were subjected to the great Yankees comeback reached +20 in game 52 (36-16) and still were 63-48 the rest of the way. A broader set of playoff teams could possibly create a competitive environment where wins are harder to come by in September, but that September effect first postulated by Bill James is still happening and the current +20s don't seem to be in any danger of playing enough under .500 the rest of the way to finish below +20. The Orioles are the team which makes me a little nervous for that claim, given they are only +21 now.

How about Kevin Gausman in his years with the Orioles? 4.22 career ERA with BAL and he was obviously worse in several seasons. Pete Harnisch was another guy (4.49 career ERA with Orioles in a pitcher's park--ERA+ pof 85 vs 91 for Kremer).

This is for sure true. Having a big hole is the best way to have a really impactful trade. The Orioles don't have a Todd Cruz circa 1983 to replace, but the last middle reliever or starter is weak.

I think Vavra understands his spot in the org, which was part of him starting to play some emergency catcher. If he can do so at an adequate level, that's a lot of incremental value the big club could use.

The Orioles are outplaying their WAA and pythag despite the recent blowouts. Looking at the list by position, C is the biggest disappointment with Adley down to .511 from .533 last season. On the other hand, what's nice is the Orioles don't have a glaring hole either with -0.5 the worst. Just a guess...I don't think there are many teams where every position group fits on [-0.5, +1.1] of WAA (or a pro-rata of that over a whole season). That's exceptionally balanced.

This x 1000. Mayo has put himself into the conversation as one of the best hitting prospects in the game now, he's untouchable in terms of trading for rentals.

I'm still hopeful Stowers recovers and becomes a useful 4th OF for the Orioles and becomes known as a guy built for OPACY. He's the sort of player who would have had a ton of value during Earl Weaver's tenure when a typical mix of the 25 was 16-9 position players/pitchers. Now with 13-13 or 14-12 it is much more common that the pitching team gets the final say in dictating platoon matchups. This has been mitigated somewhat by the 3-batter rule.

Totally agree with this take. One other way to get a trade done is to find the motivated seller that wants to move salary off the books. Everyone talks like every player will have suitors despite a big contract, but I don't think that's true at all, particularly if a gamble on 2024 is required. Goldschmidt, for example, is still a good hitter, but how many teams need another player at the right end of the defensive spectrum who is 35, just an average fielding 1B, and with about $35M left on his contract through the end of 2024? Said otherwise, if the Orioles can't find a taker for Anthony Santander (OPS+ of 133, age 28, $7.4M, 1 more year of Arb), why would Goldschmit (OPS of 130+, age 35, $22M prorated for 2023 and another $26M in 2024) be widely sought after?

A lot can and probably will happen prior to the trade deadline. Some teams will realize they should be sellers with a tough run. To that end, the scoreboard results I am hoping to see over the next 2 weeks include: Already selling: KC, Oak, NYM, Pit, StL, Was, Col Downturns make them sellers: Sea, LAA, Det, ChiW, SD, ChiC Not likely to sell, probably buyers: Bos, NY, Tor, Phil, Mil Almost certainly buying/holding: TBR, Bal, Cle, Min, Tex, Hou, Atl, LAD, SF, Cin, Mia, Ariz The ratio of sellers to buyers looks to favor the sellers now, but that's usually the case at the AS break. I personally believe teams for which the 6th or 7th WC is the best option should be sellers (as the Orioles were last season) given the long-uphill battle they face for postseason relevance, but that includes 3 of the big money teams from the AL East. Which is the team you think will be a "surprise seller" come the end of the month?

If the Orioles put together a huge package for Ohtani, they'd still be an underdog to this Braves team. So isn't it just a matter of how much of an underdog you want to be in 2023 and how much gets sacrificed in terms of value in 2024 and beyond? Beyond that, to substantially increase their hopes to win the WS as a percentage of their chance to make the playoffs, the most important step is to win the division, perhaps get a bye, and not concern themselves with the relative might of the Braves. The Rays are the Bogey. The Rangers are probably the secondary concern.

I agree and I don't really think it's too close. To that end, I think Norby is at least the bulk of the value the O's should have to give up for a pitcher like Bednar and maybe 100% of it. I definitely would not throw in Stowers, Willems or another 100-200 position player. I have no idea what Hall's value is right now, so I'll leave that to the organization, but he's at least a cautionary tale on the relative value of young pitchers vs position players.