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Ohfan67

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Ohfan67 last won the day on January 12 2018

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About Ohfan67

  • Birthday 04/13/1967

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    Texas
  • Favorite Current Oriole
    John Means
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Cal

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  1. Today is only Henderson's eighth game. That's part of it, but I also think the Orioles have sent Holliday on some road trips to face better starting pitching. So not sure how much to make of the lineups at this point.
  2. As others noted, we haven't gotten to see a lot of Grayson yet this spring. Stats are to date are mixed (they are meaningless at this point, very meaningless, but include a high strikeout rate, yay!, but walks and a homerun). I think Grayson will have a very good year, but he's probably likely to have streaks of walks and a few homers mixed with streaks of dominance. I don't expect him to be lights out/second half Grayson all year. But of course I hope he's lights out all year.
  3. A lot of the RSN's are doing poorly. We probably hit peak spring training broadcast schedule several years ago and it will continue to be pretty blah.
  4. He threw 103 innings in 2022 and was used exclusively as a starter. He threw 118 innings last year. He turns 30 in August. This may be who he is. But it looks like pitching 100 innings isn't a special threshold for him.
  5. The level of praise from the national writers is pretty crazy. They are salivating.
  6. It’s also an at bats thing. He’s one of the team leaders in spring at bats. Taking a nice, long look him.
  7. There was an awful lot of hand-wringing in your post. A nearly endless stream of negative what-ifs. The what-ifs work both ways.
  8. So if Means, Irvin, Wells, Kremer, and Grayson all get hurt or have bad years then signing Lorenzen is going "protect from a lot of that"? You might as well include an asteroid taking out Camden Yards during a game in the what-if list.
  9. Only advantage is that you can let McKenna rot on the bench for long stretches. That said I want the younger prospects on the team, but that is one benefit to having a fourth outfielder like McKenna.
  10. But I don't think WPA really accounts for how good the pitcher was at converting saves under different conditions. The 2023 Orioles played a crazy number of tight games, more than many other teams. A season like the O's 2023 season provides more WPA-earning opportunities than many other team's season provides. A strikeout in the 9th when the team is up by one increases WPA more than a strikeout in the 9th when the team is leading by three. At least that's my understanding of how the calculation works. I'm not really disagreeing with you. We are going to miss Bautista. When he's on his game, Bautista is basically unreplicatable. But Bautista was also scary as heck in some games. I think Kimbrel performed well as a closer last year, overall, and I am optimistic that the drop-off won't be as big as you fear. And part of that is being a good closer isn't that much different from being a really good closer in terms of wins and losses, on average. I am also hopeful that the bullpen will not have to rely so much on Kimbrel.
  11. He was 29th out of like 162 players who pitched in relief. Cano was 14th and yet only saved 50 something percent of his opportunities. Do you think Cano would be a better closer than Kimbrel? WPA is context dependent depending on the situation in the game. Bautista was dominant, no doubt, but in the end he and Kimbrel saved about the same percentage of opportunities. It’s one of the weird things about the small sample sizes associated with the position.
  12. Bullpen performance is weird because it's evaluated over relatively small sample sizes and the relationship between things like strikeouts and outcomes is not 100% (especially in small sample sizes). The Orioles bullpen had a 61% save rate in 2023, almost exactly MLB average. Bautista had an 85% save rate and Kimbrel had an 82% save rate (Cano had a 57% save rate, for comparison). A couple of closers saved 90%. Bautista was a lot of fun to watch and deserved the confidence that most of us had in him, but a number of closers were ultimately just as effective even though they weren't lighting up the radar gun and scaring the crap out of opposing hitters. I'm hopeful that Kimbrel has a good year and that the loss of Bautista is absorbable. Fingers crossed.
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