luismatos4prez

I suppose there's still a chance they trade him before releasing him so maybe I'll withhold my negativity about this for now. I'm not sure how waiving him helps the trade market though.

Completely agree. I am very strongly opposed to this move. I was cautiously optimistic about the Elias and Sons Era. Not anymore. Just embarrassing.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/has-jonathan-villar-played-himself-out-of-baltimore/ Quote from article: It's unthinkable to me, too. We'll find out in 2 short weeks though.

The 40 man is at 35 right now. I expect Hanhold, Valaika, Wilkerson, Wynns, Smith Jr, Armstrong, and Kline would all pass through waivers, so there isn't any worry about the roster being full. I'm in favor of protecting Mountcastle, Akin, Sedlock, McKenna, Kremer, and Fenter and I expect they'll claim 1 or 2 guys that shake loose from other teams.

Scouting and and infrastructure are all good with me. Non-tendering Villar (or cash-dumping him like Jim Johnson) is a terrible move. He is a valuable piece that teams would love at 1 yr/10M if he were a free agent (just like Schoop last year). They should definitely be able to trade him for a 45-level prospect. If no one is biting, they already have about the lowest payroll in baseball and the financial situation is not so dire that they'd be forced to cut him. They can keep him and try to flip him at the deadline rather than lose him for nothing. But again, they can and should be able to trade him this winter.

I can't imagine why. Unless you're joking. I can never tell. What will they do with that $10M that can't already be done with the tens of millions of dollars they've saved on payroll by now? Maybe I don't know enough about ML budgets. I imagine the team is making a big profit with payroll so low. Is there a good reason (other than pocket-lining) for ownership to set a budget of say $60M?

What benefit does the team get from losing 58 games rather than 62? Rebuilding and tanking are two different things. Trading veterans for prospects is rebuilding. I support that. Non-tendering good ML players so that you lose more games is tanking and I don't support that. It's disrespectful to the game and the fans in my opinion.

$65M is an extremely low payroll already. I don't see any benefits to lowering that to $55M, but correct me if I'm wrong there. Winning 62 games vs 58 games absolutely means something to me. I watch most games. I want to see the team win every time I watch.

I agree with Boras. Tanking is detrimental to the league. I'm a broken record. But the fact that some think non-tendering Villar (or similar moves) is good strategy is frustrating to me. What does that ~$10M saved do for the club? What do they do with that money that's more productive than having a good baseball player play for the baseball team? Winning 62 games instead of 58 means something to the fans that attend/watch those 4 games. And the payroll is already plenty low enough for a rebuild. About $65M without deferred money this year. About $80M lower than it was 2 years ago. Good for 29th in the majors last year, maybe low enough for 30th this year. And that's with Villar, Givens, Mancini, etc. Non-tendering Villar is an awful idea. Trading him is fine, but I don't want to see a cash dump trade like Jim Johnson for Weeks. Villar's a valuable asset even with a high salary.

They're similar levels of difficulty in my experience, but the Korean writing system is tremendously easy to learn (especially compared to Mandarin and Japanese). Good for Brooks! No loss to the Orioles.

With the Orioles salary being comically low right now, they could agree to take on some portion of the $67.5M owed to Wil Myers in exchange as part of a trade. I'm certain it won't happen, and I don't know enough about MLB budgets to argue it should, but it's a fun idea. Gives the Orioles farm system a boost, and lets the Padres spend money on players who can actually play baseball well this winter (unlike Myers and Hosmer).

A general prospect question: Does anyone know of any guys who were like Carmona, Encarnacion, Sparks, etc. and put up bad hitting lines for a few years in the low minors but were toolsy enough to have potential and eventually put it all together and became successful big league hitters? I can't think of any, but I'm sure they exist.

Rutschmann Hall GRod Hays Mountcastle Diaz Baumann Henderson Kremer Lowther A. Hall Harvey Akin Rom Stowers McKenna Bannon Fenter Wells Watson McCoy Cumberland Sedlock Zimmermann L. Rodriguez Stauffer Zebron Hanifee Welk Elio Prado (Cashner acquisition)

The Nationals cut a huge chunk into the Orioles fan base, have much better ownership, a much higher budget, and now a world series championship. It's hard not to be disappointed. Very parallel to the Ravens coming into the area and becoming a successful franchise quickly while the once top tier team (Redskins) struggles under terrible leadership.

Pat Valaika = Jack Reinheimer. He won't make it through the winter on the 40 man roster.

Peoples would be a great pickup and we definitely need depth. But is the consensus that Akin isn't ready? He led the International League in strikeouts this past year and his ERA (4.73) was below league average (4.90). A starting rotation of Cobb, Means, Bundy, Akin, and Wojo seems serviceable to me. It's just the drop-off after that is enormous.

I'm all in favor of trading him for value if that's an option. It's non-tendering him that I find unacceptable.

Exactly. If that $10M isn't spent on Villar, is there some better use for it that helps the team's future? I don't accept that the payroll being $55M instead of $65M in 2020 helps the team's future in any meaningful way.

I will be very disappointed if the Orioles non-tender Villar, even at that high price tag. Not counting the deferred money, the budget is around $65M with those high arb. numbers included. Villar is worth $10M. Trading him if you can get an okay return is a good move. Simply letting him walk because you want to save $10M on an already extremely low, noncompetitive budget is unacceptable to me. The payroll is already around the bottom of the league. Saving an extra $10M so the fans get to watch a Breyvic Valera type player bumble around the infield instead of a major leaguer is a bad move. Is there a more productive use of $10M to the team next year?

I don't think the Padres are going to put together a contender. I did see an idea on the internet that the Orioles should trade Mancini for Hosmer, CJ Abrams, and Luis Patino. Crazy trade. Take on the 6 years/~$100M of Hosmer's contract with him at replacement level recently for two Top 50 prospects. Will never happen of course, but it's a fun idea. Prospect value wise, it works out better for San Diego honestly but I doubt either team would be interested.

You're probably right, but he's not blocking anyone and they aren't hurting for money. Their payroll has gone from about: 2017 - $163.5M 2018 - $143M 2019 - $72M According to my mental math, the 2020 payroll will be about $64M if Villar, Givens, and Mancini are all on the team (Davis at 17M). In the low 50s if they're all traded. About the lowest in the league. I assume Villar is traded before OD so Richie Martin, Rylan Bannon, Mason McCoy are left. None of them are beating down the door as serious prospects at SS. Is it really so unreasonable for them to offer a guy like Iglesias $4M just to have the team win a few more games next year? I get that the difference between 60 and 65 wins is irrelevant to the franchise's long term plans, but it's relevant to the fans who watch the games.

Outstanding!! One of the best outfield catches I've seen in a long time. Good for Stevie.

If guys like Yaz or Means got cut in this scenario, they wouldn't necessarily retire. Fewer minor league clubs would lead to a rise in overseas and independent baseball. Maybe the Long Island Ducks' league becomes bigger and more legit. The Mexican league would rise in quality. Maybe some leagues pop up in South America.

Good points Drungo! I like the idea of working backwards from the desired outcomes of a system. Goal 1: Service time should no longer be a deciding factor in free agency or player promotion. I think automatic free agency after the age 27 season would be good (or after age 23 if they've never made it to the majors), with a better compensation system worked out between the team that signs and the team that loses the guy in free agency. Maybe a % of the contract value? Goal 2: Significantly reduce the bloated, inefficient system. Limit minor league affiliates to 2 full season teams, 1 short season team, and whatever overseas academies they want. Pay the minor leaguers better. Cut the draft in half (20 rounds).

Villar's going to get like $7M or so in arbitration. If you think he's a 3 WAR player (which there's a good case for), then that's a lot of value and not a lot of risk for a winning team who needs a middle infielder. I bet Elias could trade him for a 45 grade prospect this winter. Would you trade him for a player like Austin Hays, Ryan McKenna, or Dean Kremer?