Brooks The Great

I think Tony is 100% correct on Holliday not having a chance to make the OD roster. It would be completely out of line with Elias's MO for him to bring Holliday north with the team. Elias has blocked elite prospects such as Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz with total scrubs in Adam Frazier and Rougned Odor (along with Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias getting playing time the past 2 seasons as well). Now that Frazier is gone and Mateo has had his playing time appropriately scaled back, Westburg and Ortiz are finally going to get a chance to get playing time to show what they can do. If Elias was willing to keep Westburg and Ortiz in the minors or on the major league bench for Odor and Frazier, he'll definitely have no problem keeping Holliday down an extra few months now that he has young, talented middle infielders to plug in at 2B and a surplus of MIs overall (plus Mayo close at 3B or 1B). When you consider that Elias would also be delaying starting Holliday's service time clock and giving him more reps at SS and 2B defensively by keeping him in the minors for a few months longer, it becomes an even more clear-cut decision. It would take 2 or 3 injuries to middle infielders AND Jackson playing well in spring training for him to make the team for Opening Day.

If there's one thing I criticize Elias for, it's his tendency to block his own prospects and stick with veterans for way too long. Odor, Frazier, Mateo. I think Elias got really lucky with Hicks staying hot for a couple months, and Hicks wound up blocking Cowser. I really don't want O'Hearn blocking Kjerstad and Cowser. But I think it's going to happen early in the season.

Only way Urias is off the roster is if he's traded. Hopefully Elias can work a trade with the Marlins that sends off Urias or Mateo.

If you only want to look at K%, maybe the comp isn't accurate. But Cowser was one of the best pure OBP hitters his whole time in the minors. He has an exquisite ability to draw walks. So from a purely OBP standpoint, that makes the comp more accurate. I think Cowser will wind up with a better major league career than Markakis - I'm a believer in Colton and I think his small sample MLB stint where he never played regularly makes most Orioles fans and posters on this board severely underrate him.

That's fair, and I do think Westburg would bring back more in a trade, especially if he performs as well as I expect him to for the Orioles this upcoming season in more of a full time role now that Frazier is thankfully gone. Realistically in a best case scenario for the Orioles and all of their current prospects and MLB players, both Norby and Westburg are going to be traded. I love Westburg. But I would trade him before Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo, and I expect/hope for both of them to be regulars for the Orioles in 2025/2026.

Totally agree, and that right there is the answer to the Cowser vs. Kjerstad debate for me. Keep both. The only thing that concerns me is that Elias has demonstrated both a reluctance to trade his top prospects, AND also has shown to overvalue mediocre veterans and block prospects with them (Odor, Frazier, Mateo). I'm already worried about guys like O'Hearn, Urias, Mateo and even Mountcastle and Hays taking AB's away from Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz and possibly Norby and Mayo. Not only could those prospects provide better immediate value than those veterans in certain scenarios, but those prospects losing playing time to vets could very possibly be detrimental to their development.

I actually think it's the opposite. I think Cowser will be the safer bet to hit his floor because he's such a good hitter, and a potentially solid defender in either corner outfield spot. Meanwhile, Kjerstad is the higher upside player. Cowser didn't hit well in the majors obviously, but he also wasn't given a chance to play every day. Kjerstad's risky profile as a defender lowers his floor, but Kjerstad's power is what makes him the higher ceiling player for me. You used the Markakis comp for Cowser, which I think is accurate and a common comp used for Cowser. Markakis was also a high floor kind of player. He never hit for big power, but was a very good hitter with a great arm, and ultimately a valuable player his whole time with the Orioles.

I think Westburg is going to be a much better MLB player because of his defense at multiple IF positions. I also think a lot of people undervalue Westburg offensively because Elias and Hyde foolishly platooned Westburg in favor of Adam Frazier (terrible) last season to the detriment of both the team and Westburg. I do like Norby a lot, though. If the Orioles trade him, hopefully we get strong value for him.

There's absolutely no need for any of these kinds of signings in the infield any longer. There wasn't a need last year either when Frazier was signed, and that was clearly a poor signing which unnecessarily blocked good prospects (Westburg, Ortiz).

Ryu is my favorite target. Between him, Wells, Irvin, and perhaps DL Hall, I think the back end of the rotation would be in solid shape, even with injuries taken into account.

When did I say otherwise? The whole point of my post is that an extension might be possible, NOT that Gunnar will sign an extension with less than 2 years of service time. Jesus. All I was saying is that Gunnar may sign an extension BEFORE FREE AGENCY. I specifically said that I don't expect Gunnar to sign an extension before 2025, so your response stating that a Boras client hasn't signed an extension within 2 years makes no sense to post. It implies that I said something contradictory to that, but I didn't. I actually stated something which aligns with Boras clients not signing before 2 years of service time. Did you even bother to read my entire post?

Boras clients have signed extensions early in the past. There are also scenarios where Peter Angelos dies and/or someone like David Rubenstein buys the team before Gunnar and Holliday reach free agency. It's highly unlikely Gunnar gets an extension before 2025, but I think it's possible overall.

The other thing is that Judge is a pretty injury-prone player. Whenever Judge goes down, that lineup is pedestrian, and it becomes easier to just pitch around Soto. Soto's whole approach is to draw walks anyway, but teams will be punished far less for putting Soto on base whenever Judge is on the DL. I also agree that Soto's body type isn't going to hold up well. Even if Soto stays healthy over the next several years (assuming the Yankees sign him long-term, which isn't a given), he's only going to get slower, and the Yankees are going to have a poor OF defense whenever he plays in the field.

The Yankees have also proven time and time again since 2010 that selling out their farm system to pick up veterans (Rizzo, Gallo, Benintendi, Montas) hasn't worked out in order to win them a championship. Cashman has also shown that he doesn't make good free agent signings either (Stanton, Rodon, Ellsbury, Youkilis, Happ), so that's a bad combination. The Yankees have steadily regressed from WS contenders to missing the playoffs over the past 5+ years thanks to Cashman's decisions. The Yankees should just wait one season to sign Soto as a free agent. Trading away pitching prospects - which they need for their longer-term success - for a one year rental is stupid. I'd be glad to see them trade for Soto.

Any manager could lead a team as talented as this one to 101 wins. Take a look at my posting history to get an idea of how poor Hyde is as a manager before calling me an idiot. Dispute my arguments (about Hyde being a terrible manager, which I've stated multiple times with examples and analysis) with facts instead of insults.

Hyde is an awful manager. Been saying it all year on this board. Sucks to have known he was going to be a Buck Showalter-sized liability in the playoffs.

This is exactly why it was the best move to start Grayson Game 2. I'm really happy with Hyde and Elias' decisions for the first 3 starters.

It has to be Bradish. If the series goes 5 games, you want to have the option of Bradish getting a second start in Game 5 if needed. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball and absolutely dominant for a long stretch. I like the idea of Grayson going in Game 3 in Texas, but I think he's best for Game 2. That would allow us to have Grayson also ready to go in Game 5 in case Bradish suffers an injury early in game 5. Whichever pitcher starts Game 3 wouldn't be available for Game 5. So Means should start Game 3.

Irvin should never have been sent down. Right move was to release Lopez back to the dumpster he belongs in and keep Irvin up.

Fuji shouldn't be on the playoff roster. Cano is the best closer option. Hopefully Flaherty can be a good 1-2 inning guy out of the pen, but it's still too early to tell. I'd switch Perez and Hall in the OP's post - Perez has been on fire for most of the past couple months, he's our most reliable overall arm in the pen at the moment, so he'd be the top setup man option in front of Cano. Coulombe, Hall, and Webb isn't a terrible group of high leverage guys, but the wheels are starting to fall off on Webb a bit after a great stretch. Not sure if McDermott is done for the season with his injury. But he deserves a look if he can come back within the next week or so.

Elias' offseason acquisitions are the worst regular hitter in the lineup and the worst pitcher in the starting rotation. His trade deadline acquisitions were both net negatives. No one is perfect, but Elias has been too conservative this season with an extremely low payroll and the best farm system in baseball to leverage.

Kjerstad's raw power will also play better in Oriole Park. So Kjerstad has more effective power than Mountcastle does. The right move this offseason will be to trade Mountcastle - his heater after returning from vertigo really salvaged his value. However, I don't have much hope that Elias will trade him at all during the 2023 offseason or in 2024. One of my few criticisms of Mike Elias is his inability to quickly move on from veterans to give playing time to more talented prospects. Elias holds on to veteran assets on the major league roster for far too long and Hyde gives those players too much playing time. Odor, Frazier, Voth, Mateo, Hicks, Akin. Urias is slowly getting to that point, and with Kjerstad already contributing at the major league level and Coby Mayo ready for the majors next season, Mountcastle will be blocking too many players as well.

Poster above was making the general point (correctly, in my opinion) that both Frazier and Hicks should be seeing less at bats. Frazier isn't directly blocking Kjerstad, but Hicks certainly is. Hicks is literally blocking Kjerstad tonight and twice in three games.

His defense is a major liability though. He shouldn't be starting regularly, but he has been.

Awful lineup. Don't care if we score 10 runs and win, Hyde has proven that he's a major liability to this team by refusing to play his most talented players and sticking with underperforming vets (Flaherty, Frazier, Mateo, and Hicks with his atrocious defense). Hicks and Frazier need to be benched permanently, but Hyde won't do it. Terrible managing for a guy who's going to win AL Manager of the Year only because he has more talent than anyone else in baseball except for the Braves.