7Mo
-
Posts
1266 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by 7Mo
-
-
Dan Connolly posted on Sportsnaut an O's trade for Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Hicks. Cards get DL Hall, Dylan Beavers and Justin Armbruester. Thoughts?
Personally I'm not a fan of Hicks and I'd rather sub someone for Beavers because I think he's worth some patience.
-
9 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:
I expect the Orioles to make a trade for a starter in the next 48 hours that will come in and replace Wells in the rotation. Wells should go on the IL with dead arm, get some rest and treatment and come back as a bullpen arm.
I still think he has a huge role for the remainder of the year but he needs to get that arm back to what it was before the break.
I agree. We need a starter to allow Wells to go to the pen where I believe he will be very good the rest of the year. Wells returns to the rotation next year.
My guess is they're taking a run at Logan Gilbert or Bryce Miller but if the price is too high, they wind up with someone like Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz or JP Sears. I'd say Ortiz only goes for a guy like Gilbert or Miller.
I'm thinking Grayson starts until mid to late Sept and then he moves to the pen. Means won't have time to build up as a starter but if Wells, Grayson and Means are added to the pen for the playoffs, I'd feel pretty good.
-
2 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:
Interesting read and makes sense of why we see so much senseless hoarding of prospects we can never dream to play. It's not Elias; It's Sig.
Don't expect anything but for them to sit on their hands.
I wonder if Sig feels the same about trading prospects for guys with plenty of team control, as opposed to a rental?
We've seen Hernaiz for Irvin. We've seen Lucas for Fuji. I hope his point is not trading prospects for rentals rather than pushing back on trading more highly thought of prospects for players with 2-3 years of remaining control.
-
My realistic best case is 2 more RP's and 1 SP. I think Fuginami will be a big plus and I think 2 more guys similar to him are on the way. Wonder if one is Genesis Cabrera who has the big stuff but doesn't throw enough strikes. Do the O's feel they can adjust him within a few weeks and get him right?
I don't think we acquire any of the big names, Stroman, Hader, Snell, none of those guys. If we acquire a SP, I think it'll be a guy with a lot of team control remaining like a Logan Gilbert or Bryce Miller. That seems like the kind of deal where Ortiz is involved. SEA fits Ortiz well with their need for a 2Bman now and maybe a SS in a year or 2. Gilbert is 6'6" so I think he's the preferred guy.
I don't see any way Frazier or Urias are traded but I'm hoping someone overpays for Mountcastle (Philly?) or Mateo (SFG?). I'm counting on the Phillies GM to gut their farm and the Giants are just 2 games back so I think they'll be active.
Earlier I would have said Prieto would have been traded but seeing how much the O's value the L/R lineups, and looking at his profile, I think Prieto becomes the '24 version of Frazier. There are too many parallels in their hit profile.
I'm curious whether Rodriguez winds up in the pen mid-Sept. That makes sense to me. I don't forsee any more rentals headed this way and I'm surprised they did with Fuginami but to me, he's got a real good chance to finish the year really strong. On the other hand, they've got some 40 man issues that could be cleared up and that may lead to another trade for a rental but I doubt it.
-
74 K's in 67 IP with 14 HBP and 14 HR's. Didn't throw many innings until his last season. Gave up 5 HR's to Kent State then came back 8 days later and held them to 2 ER's in 6 IP.
It'll be interesting to see what they can do with this guy.
-
If Elias is looking at the Cards, I'd bet he's looking to see if they can help the command for Genesis Cabrera rather than a position player.
-
15 hours ago, Frobby said:
I remember that Colin Poche, who the O's drafted out of high school, began his college career at Arkansas before transferring to Dallas Baptist. So, they have a pretty decent baseball program.
DBU is a good program. They were a 2 seed in the Stillwater Regional and won 2 games before Oral Roberts knocked them out. They're 11th in NCAA wins since 2015.
-
1
-
-
Friday night starter most of the year.
-
-
50 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
Yes, Frazier, Mateo for certain
I don't think Frazier will be traded. Hope Mateo is. Then one of Ortiz or Urias is traded IMO. Last week, I thought it'd be Ortiz but if Mountcastle stays up, I think it's Urias and we bring Ortiz up. By Aug 1, I think 2 of Ortiz, Urias and Mateo are gone.
-
39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Hope Mayo plays first base a ton in AAA.
Wonder if McDermott to the ML bullpen soon is a possibility?
How long did they put DL Hall in the pen before bringing him up? 3 weeks?
If McDermott goes to the Tides pen, maybe they'll do that.
-
56 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
This sucks.
And whatever, I just don’t like watching the guy play baseball. His at bats are terrible to watch. I will grant that his defense is mediocre at best but that’s not a reason to keep trotting him out there. He’s not Keith Hernandez.
@Can_of_cornhas yet to adequately address the fact that Mountcastle’s production has steadily dropped across the board since he came into the league. Year over year, his batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage, OPS+ has declined.
I think Just Regular had a good point that this is one game before the 4 day break. Bullpen is in pretty good shape so you go a pitcher short and maybe a pinch hit opportunity vs a lefty gives him a shot.
If he's here and playing regularly after the break, I'll be right behind you in the riot.
I don't disagree with anything you're saying other than I don't think this is an indication of their long term thinking. But I am worried that it might be a bad sign.
-
1
-
-
6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
I’m not sure that I exactly understand what you are asking.
But I think after the extreme process of tanking that it took to get to where we are and after accumulating a massive war chess of assets, that the goal should be to put ourselves in a position to compete/win multiple championships. Not simply being satisfied with doing enough to qualify for a postseason birth.
I agree. But you still try to make the best decisions daily, whether you were last in the WS 5 years ago or 40 years ago.
I'm saying the 40 year drought shouldn't cause them to build with urgency at the cost of longer term success.
-
35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I won’t be surprised if they decide not to acquire a starter for now…in other words, they may acquire a starter but guys like Woo, Miller and Meyer may be what they get.
In other words, guys who are either not pitching or on an innings restriction and may not be much more than relievers for 2023.
I think that's where we're headed too. I think we wind up with 2 AA starters (or someone like Woo or Meyer) and 2 MLB relievers at the deadline.
-
2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:
This is sad if true.
We haven’t won a World Series in FORTY YEARS (no appeared in one) and we have an overabundance of organizational talent after an extreme approach to tanking that lasted for half of a decade which resulted in unprecedented loosing.
Should this affect the way decisions are made today on how to improve the organization?
-
8 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:
You can't trade any of those three and get any pitching we don't have already. We don't need rag arms. If we want real BP talent on a trade it's going to cost.
But we don't have to expect that from a Mateo trade. All I'd want from him in return is something we believe will make the organization better long term. That could very well be a 17 y.o. Dominican right now.
We'll have to find pitching elsewhere.
-
17 minutes ago, bluedog said:
Based on this chart - I'm going to make a prediction:
The O's will send Urias and Hayes or Santander to Miami for starting pitching.
As of today, Miami would be a playoff team.
Would you do that deal if it brought back MiLB pitching that doesn't help until next year? Or if you got a legit prospect (Max Meyer or Dax Fulton) (help next year) plus a MLB reliever (help this year)?
My personal opinion is that Hays won't be traded until after next season and Santander goes this off season, not at the deadline but if the return is good enough, maybe Santander goes.
-
53 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:
Was listening to Bruce on 105.7 and I believe it was with Meoli. He said the untouchables are Holiday, Kjerstad, and Gonzalez.
Is Gonzalez also known as Grayson Rodriguez?
-
1
-
-
SEA is really struggling at second. I'm sure they would want Ortiz+. No idea how much more.
-
Just now, Sports Guy said:
Don’t care too much about a blister. This is as much about the long term as it is right now.
Woo is another name that has been mentioned.
Basically, they have a lot of young pitching and need hitting. Kind of the AL version of the Marlins.
I agree that it's about the long term. Servais said "he's not going to pitch for awhile." No idea what or how long that means but if he's out for say 20-22 days, that might actually help in October.
I remember Campbell pitching at Arkansas dealing. That doesn't tell what he'll be in MLB but I like that guy.
-
Bryce Miller went on the IL 7/5 with a blister. I'd check on Woo and Isaiah Campbell too.
-
I agree that it's Joey Ortiz and I think there's a good chance that he goes on to have a nice career. I think Urias has more value than others think and maybe he nets a MLB bullpen arm that the O's feel like they can improve.
I don't see Elias in the market for a rental or a TOR guy so maybe Norby or Prieto brings back a guy who is a viable starting pitcher in a year or so. A Povich/McDermott/Seth Johnson type target.
I'm hoping Houston sees their dumpster fire at first and short left field wall and sends young pitching for Mountcastle but the above seems more likely than this. At the same time, Mountcastle would fit vs LHP on the O's better if Urias is dealt. Hopefully Houston or Philly sees more in him than that.
-
2 minutes ago, interloper said:
I assume he means Seth Johnson.
And/or Chayce McDermott.
-
57 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:
Thought I'd do a mini post to try to bring everything together on Armbruester.
Full disclosure: I'm combining bits and pieces of data together from different places and there's a lot of conjecture and assumption going into this post, but I guess that's the nature of TINSTAAP at the end of the day!
I think what made me ambivalent towards Armbruester in the past was his fastball velocity. Its average starter velo at best and probably a tick below average - quite surprising for such a big bodied starter. But now as more data becomes available regarding pitch shape, and what makes a fastball (un)hittable (or any pitch for that matter), velo has become just one (albeit still important) of many pieces of the puzzle.
Induced vertical break (IVB) or pfx_z on baseball savant, or in scouting terms: ride, has become the first thing I look for now. Obviously combining ride with premium velocity is optimal, but pitchers with below average velocity can still find success if their ride can offset their fastball velo.
Consider the chart below:
2023 MLB Four-seamers: Swinging Strike Rate Bucketed by Velocity and Fastball Ride
There's a diagonal cut-off through the chart (the blue line of terror) that pitchers obviously want to be on the ride side of. Armbruester makes it - thanks to his ride.
Armbruester lives in the black bolded area - making the cut. MIddling velo, but elite ride.
Obviously everyone would want to be top right like Felix Bautista, but there's still a world where Armbruester lives with an average to even an above average fastball thanks to his ride. He can't live off fastball whiffs like a Spencer Strider, but he should be able to induce swing and miss at an average rate, perhaps higher given that he seems to have relatively decent control/command (at least based off his minor league walk rate).
A still missing piece to the story and one thing that could make Armbreuster's fastball play up even further is his release point. Convention suggests that the higher your release point, the more ride you're able to get on your fastball - with guys with extreme over the top deliveries (think a 7 foot release point like Tyler Wells) averaging 19.1" of IVB. Armbruester is still able to get that amount of IVB from an arm slot a full foot lower! Thinking about this from a comparison perspective - his 3/4 ish delivery should on average produce a fastball with about 16" of IVB. This puts his fastball IVB about 19% above average for his arm slot. Its tough to quantify what sort of advantage this can give him, since there isn't really a pitcher that has his release point, combined with his height, combined with his IVB.
Here's a list of pitchers with at least 100 fastballs this season with a similar release point height that also have average fastballs with at least 19" of IVB.
Jeremiah Estrada
Nestor Cortes
Cody Bradford
Kutter Crawford
Rico Garcia
Taj Bradley
Estrada, Bradley, and Crawford all throw harder than Armbruester, and I admit I've never heard of Rico Garcia or Cody Bradford. But Nestor Cortes is an interesting enigma that has puzzled the MLB for the last several seasons. While he's struggled with injury a bit this year, he's been successful the last several seasons despite a middling fastball velo, with his elite IVB likely saving him. His fastball/cutter combo was elite last season - and guess what 2 pitches Armbruester throws the most? fastball/cutter. Still Nestor Cortes is 5", at least, shorter than Armbruester, so its even difficult to use these two as a like for like comparison.
This is conjecture as well, but his arm slot suggests that he should have a flatter fastball than average for his release slot, another piece to help him overcome his velo (I need statcast data to confirm this one first).
Ultimately it has me excited to see what a pitcher with a unique fastball is able to do. I don't want to anoint him a top 100 guy, but he's definitely someone that has an interesting story to that the surface level data may miss.
Combine a nice fastball shape, with a seemingly good cutter/slider combo, and average-ish command, I don't think there's any reason to not give him a shot to be a back-end guy and see if he can have a similar ascension as Tyler Wells (another high IVB low velo guy). Maybe not this year with 40 man implications, but definitely next year I hope he gets his shot (as long as he keeps performing in AAA).
Some spots I got my data:
Chart and MLB comparison data was created with baseballsavant.com data
Release point data came from the game log of Thursday's game (7-6-23): https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll/game?gamePk=723714&player_id=701859#pitch_release
IVB data came from the great Prospects Live AAA statcast leaderboard: https://www.prospectslive.com/2023-aaa-statcast-data
Thanks for gathering all of this. Terrific.
Orioles related trade rumors and speculation leading up to the deadline
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Mets want a top 100. I was surprised to find out the Astros don't have one.
My guess is Verlander winds up with the Dodgers.
Cards have been consistent saying they want pitching back.