ThisIsBirdland

Yeah he threw multiple times last September. A few highlights made their way to social media, and it honestly seemed somewhat encouraging. However, IIRC they claimed they ran out of time to get him ramped back up for the postseason. I always found that answer interesting, wondering if that meant if the injury was sustained one month earlier, would they have ran him out there with a manageable tear in his UCL for the playoffs? Or was he just not as effective with the tear? My guess is the latter had as much to do with it as anything.

It's not a sentimental connection to homegrown talent. It's the cost-control that teams have for the first 6 years of a player's career. That's extremely valuable and not worth giving away easily. Not to say there isn't a deal to be made, but you don't just arbitrarily throw four guys with six years of control each at the Marlins for Luzardo if you believe those four players may be legitimate contributors for the next six years. Neither you nor I know how highly the O's value Westburg, we just know they haven't moved him as part of any deal yet. My guess is they value him considerably more than you do. You're not risking one of the Holliday/Adley/Gunnar years by not overpaying for Jesus Luzardo in March. The team just acquired Corbin Burnes. If Means and Bradish can't make it back you have until the trade deadline to help shore up this team if need be. I don't think the Witt deal has any impact on how Elias/Rubenstein may approach extending Holliday/Adley/Gunnar. We've been spoiled by how well the Elias regime has drafted. Maybe it's sustainable, maybe not. Just because Wagner was a 2nd round pick doesn't mean he's developing into a future starter.

I’m keepIng expectations in check since we saw Felix go through this last year.

You really get locked in on very specific scenarios sometimes. Any time a trade which you feel is an obvious move to make has not occurred, then its because either the O's don't think it's the right move, or the other team doesn't think it's the right move and wants more than what the O's are offering. With regards to your specific argument though, there's no guarantee that any of the players you're assuming will be solid or better MLB players will actually meet that potential. There's a lot of value in having multiple options at these positions, as opposed to slotting in one guy for each position today and then immediately trading everyone else. The O's have already responsibly moved some of their INF logjam, and I defer to them on the value of moving the rest of these potentially backed up pieces. I also believe the MLB team can support 140+ starts for Westburg even after Mayo and Holliday arrive. Here's a best case, all top 9 bats develop and need to be in the lineup 2026 scenario, but it would require a scarcely used bench. Not realistic IMO, but as an exercise it shows you can get the guys the starts.

If Ryu wanted to pitch in the US he would have received more than $4.25m/year. I wouldn't view that as a reflection on the O's.

In addition to the usual RSN issues, I wonder how much the rights fees disputes may have enabled ownership to collect profit which would in the future be owed back to the teams? I’m still surprised they didn’t have to keep that money in escrow but if money was being pulled out of MASN for all those years of disputes that helps explain the team/MASN value. The sale may well have been entirely necessary to provide the Angelos’ with the cash needed to settle the rights fees balance? Fingers crossed Rubenstein unwinds MASN, reaches a deal to sever the relationship with the Nats, and we have a streaming option in the near future. I’ll drop FIOS once that happens.

Lol in the White Sox board Cease thread they are fighting about Trevor Bauer now. The parallels are getting scary. Meanwhile Elias and Getz looking at each other like:

Number of contributing factors. They’re big on position versatility. Westburg-Gunnar-Holliday might be their best INF alignment. Mayo’s arm has more value than being stuck at 1B/DH. The older players and AAAA guys you mentioned will be cycling out in the next two years. Kjerstad/Cowser may not develop at the end of the day. Just good to know as an organization how many places someone with his bat can legitimately contribute on defense.

I especially like that ADAM FRAZIER was all caps

Where have you come up with Kjerstad being unlikely to break camp with the team recently?

I believe @Frobby listed projected arbitration increases for our core 10 players would exceed our current top 10 players by about $20m or so four years from now. If that's where payrolls are going (and they should be) I'd like to see them go ahead and make that payroll jump to +/- $120m starting this year and giving Montgomery +/-$25m a year. His contract would come off the books as you'd need to start paying $25m+ to Adley/Gunnar/Holliday.

Completely disagree. He chooses his words carefully and I find more often than not what he says is relevant and accurate. His careful approach can come off as calculating because he often qualifies what he says, as most intelligent people discussing sensitive or uncertain subjects will do. In this instance he leaned pretty heavily into the notion that they like the progression from January, but they'll need to see how it responds to establish a timeline. Still leaves him the wiggle room to come back and say it didn't work out, but he's clearly stating an expectation that Bradish will pitch in 2024. Again, I just don't see an upside to setting that expectation unless they believed it. If they were concerned he'd be out, I think they'd describe it like Felix's situation last September.

What's the incentive to put a positive spin on it? He's savvy enough to know it'd be better to lower/manage expectations now if the odds of the treatment weren't reasonably high IMO.

I think they'll supplement depending on the severity of the injuries. The fact that they haven't done so already gives me some confidence in their assessment that both players will have a role in 2024. I think the guys you listed would be fine. I'll be honest though, I know it's not realistic (at least until new ownership is in) but I still can't believe they couldn't responsibly fit an additional $20-$25m for 4-5 years in the payroll while those core guys are still cheap and go and get Montgomery.

Or he's just settling his remaining arbitration case and filling out his 40-man roster where it was potentially thin (RH 1B, LH INF, RH OF). It's just not much more complicated than that.

Maybe it's a manageable injury and they expect him back sometime this summer.

We have Adley, Gunnar and Holliday for the next 4 years, not just 2024.

Why is Kjerstad ticketed for AAA? I think the majority of projections have him making the team. Holliday, Mayo and Basallo may all be ticketed for the minors. Should we include them in trades for Cease? It's not all about 2024. It may very well be some sort of trade/signing or a mix and match of Wells + Irvin with McDermott/Povich/Johnson stepping up as needed. But I'm doubtful it'll be a move of desperation. With that said, over on the WS board (it's as insufferable as you'd expect), their one insider who has always been reasonable with our posters caught my attention with this:

Almost certainly wouldn't be enough, and I don't think the O's want to move Kjerstad. Could be wrong though, just my hunch.