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ThisIsBirdland

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Everything posted by ThisIsBirdland

  1. To be fair, they both appear to kind of suck.
  2. Not so sure about this track record...
  3. I don't think Nevin is making the team with this move. I give you credit for predicting it and arguing strongly for it, but I think this move and the desire to not run out with a 5 man bench likely precludes it from happening.
  4. https://www.masnsports.com/blog/more-on-orioles-resistance-to-opening-with-14-position-players
  5. Was McKenna making the team before this move? McKenna's value to me appeared to be as a RH CF option.
  6. Cowser was told he made the team. I highly doubt they would tell him that and then retract it because of this move. I think it's just LH 2B option.
  7. This looks like the LHB to play at 2B or a COF spot until Holliday comes up. I'm surprised they didn't just keep Wong.
  8. "I'm here for Burnes' 2024 performance taking the train all the way to Cole-ville." This is one of my favorite @Just Regularisms to date. The Strasburg contract is hanging out there too. I think the pitching deals in that tier (anything greater than 5 years at an extreme AAV) carry too much risk, even for someone like Burnes. Again, it's why I like the Bassitt mold for guys who are consistent but not necessarily guys who will get NY and LA to engage in a bidding war on. The Gausman and Castillo deals are looking pretty good right now, and I don't fault anyone for thinking Montgomery should slot below their deals (5/$110m).
  9. I'm fully aware it may not be the best strategic move for the team, but I absolutely love the Seattle/Julio Rodriguez model for cornerstone players. I have a really young, growing family right now, and I think there's something about growing up with one or a few core franchise icons to develop that connection with as fans. Yes, winning is the most important thing, but I think for kids especially and developing the appreciation/enthusiasm for the game, there are real benefits to having those iconic players in one place for as long as reasonably possible. The Julio deal specifically has such a nuanced structure to protect both player and team. Here are the bullet points on it, breaking down the team/player options. I don't necessarily think this is something that will become common, but as a fan of the Baltimore Orioles and the young core guys we're talking about, I'd love to be surprised and see it explored. • The base is for seven years and $105 million beginning next year, plus a $15 million signing bonus, taking him through the 2029 season. But after ‘28, the Mariners must determine whether to pick up a club option that is dependent on Rodriguez’s performance in AL MVP Award voting. • The first club option is for eight or 10 years and ranges from $200 million to $350 million based on MVP balloting, whether Rodriguez wins and where he finishes in the preceding seasons. If Seattle exercises its club option, the guaranteed value reaches $320 million and could possibly push as high as $470 million. The largest contract by total value in MLB history is the 12-year, $426.5 million deal that Mike Trout signed with the Angels in 2019. • If the Mariners don’t pick up the option after Rodriguez’s seventh season, he can exercise a player option following his eighth season (2029) for five years and $90 million -- which underlines the 13-year structure and $210 million floor. It’s also possible that Rodriguez could turn down the player option and reach free agency before turning 30.
  10. I love the thought of Burnes long-term but I believe you mentioned the Rodon contract as a possible structure for an extension (6/$162m) earlier in this thread. I think that's way too light for Burnes, especially if he has the type of season we're hoping for. I think Burnes may very well command a 6-8 year deal in the mid $30m-$40m range, and that that will be too rich to realistically pursue.
  11. Am I the only one who doesn't like the opt-out structure from the team's perspective? Seems like the team is taking on too much risk of an injury obligating them to pay the player for all of the option years to just guarantee they have 1 good year of the player before they opt out. Anyone can get injured at any time, but I'd rather see a reasonably long-term (3-5 year) deal if I believe the player has a consistent track record. It's not always easy to find guys willing to go year-to-year who will actually help the team more than what you get out of a Kyle Gibson type.
  12. Over the past three years he's averaged 175 IP with a 3.5 ERA/3.6 FIP, an average 121 ERA+, and 3.1 rWar. Only 8.4 k/9 but he keeps the walks down and the HR/9 is reasonable at about 1. His stats always hover within a pretty stable range. To me he's in the Chris Bassitt mold in terms of ideal consistency but with nothing overpowering, and he's 4 years younger and a lefty. As a fan I personally prefer that profile to the Snell/Cease types. As long as his price gets into that $20m-$25m range and the O's are on board with the duration, I think he's worth that as a strong #2 SP.
  13. Sure I think most teams who have interest would do that deal quickly. Reading the article though it sounds like he still wants the long-term commitment, even at 4-5 years, more than the 2 year opt out structure. I honestly prefer a deal with some longevity, something that would expire at the time that the Adley/Gunnar/Holliday contracts would start to significantly push up payroll. Montgomery is a legit #2 for a regular contender who should play well in our park. Three straight healthy, consistent, effective seasons, with postseason success. If you’re not paying Burnes something like 8/$280m as a #1, I think having someone like Montgomery at 4/$100m as a stabilizer in the rotation makes a lot of sense.
  14. What I heard is the Montgomery ask was originally in the Aaron Nola range (seven years, $172 million) and moved more to the Tyler Glasnow area (five years, $136.5 million). The Yanks have privately assessed Montgomery as a No. 3 starter, in part because he does not have high-end swing-and-miss stuff — so think more in the ballpark of Eduardo Rodriguez’s four years at $80 million perhaps. But the lefty has shown he can play in New York and will not be shaken in the postseason.
  15. Sorry I was trying to emphasize just how out of place the fact that he’s being rostered on a WS contender is. Not even his natural position apparently.
  16. On the issues that matter most, I agree. People who post on here are pretty die hard Os fans though; I think for the most part we see almost every story surrounding this team. Condensing the numerous JA public incidents, especially in the last 12-18 months, down to just PR and being disingenuous I think undersells how frustrating it was to support a team he owned. It felt like an unnecessary barrage of PR BS would show up every 3 months. Add on top of that the lease extension nonsense, the questionable land development pursuits, the family lawsuit, and it just distracted from an otherwise solid track record as Owner. I always just wanted him to look across the parking lot at the example Bisciotti and the Ravens set. Seems like his ego just couldn’t allow him to do that. Did it significantly impact the team in a negative way? No, but it was a pain as a fan more often than it should have been.
  17. We complain quite a bit about the 26th guy on our roster, but the Yankees are apparently having to hold a 3rd catcher and Jahmai Jones due to option issues. I just feel like this roster is too thin to project winning the AL East. Not that it can’t or won’t happen, there are very dangerous players up there. Could easily derail though.
  18. I didn’t give any thought to the Bowden speculative tweet. Tony indicating we’ve at least had contact has me a bit more interested. I’m still skeptical of course but the reasons for a deal all do add up. Would be great.
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