Tony-OH

I was always taught to look for guys who can pitch to quadrants, change speeds, and change batter eye levels. This was one of the reasons i like Zach Davies much more than the Orioles brass at the time did. Davies was small, built like the clubhouse kid, but he could do all of those things. Sure, when he didn't he got hit, and he was never going to put up gaudy K numbers, but he was a pitcher. That was what Joe Jordan saw when he gave him overslot to sign and that's what he was in the minors and then the majors. Now we see a lot of the same types of pitchers. Everyone is getting guys out with 4-seamers up hi, even with 93-95 MPH fastballs in the minors. Then they get minor league hitters to chase breaking balls low and away or throw changeups out of the zone that get chase. Now, all of that is a good start, but you need to be able to throw quality strikes with the same pitches because upper level, and especially major league hitters, can adjust to what you are throwing with advanced scouting reports and their ability to pick up pitches better than minor league hitters. This is why I don't too excited over pitchers until they get to AA and really, AAA. In AAA, you get a lot of guys who have been in the majors so it gets tougher to get guys to chase. You may get a whiff, then try it again and they hold off. Once they determine you can't throw that change for strikes, they don't swing at it anymore. AA and lower hitters typically can be gotten out with the same pitch and the lower you go, the worse they are at picking up pitches early.

I can only tell you what I see on the field. When I see him run, I don't see EBJ, who is most definitely a burner. Like I said, he's quick, and I do see him having baseball speed, just not 80 level speed. He's probably a 65 for me.

Not everyone will like every announcer. I'm sure Jon Miller had people who did like him because he wasn't Chuck Thompson. I do think it's a pretty low minority of fans that dislike Brown calling games. He absolutely can be corny, occasionally cringeworthy, and still sometimes forgets when his antidotes fit into a game or when they should be used at another time, but he's also does his home work, has a good voice, and overall is very good play by play guy. I'm happy he'll be sticking around even if he will make my eyes roll occasionally. Pretty sure his only real hater is @Moose Milligan!

Seems that maybe the Orioles have finally decided to give Zimmermann a real look in the pen with his last 6 appearances being two innings or less. He hasn't been great, but he was holding batters to a .265/.316/.471/.786 slash line over those six appearances. Unfortunatly, he has seen no velocity bump moving to the pen. Here's his number from his 1 innings outing last night that he struck out two in one inning of work. He did though have a 57% whiff rate on the 7 swings he garnered. He was pitching off his curveball in some of his starts earlier in the year and looks to have ditched his 4-seamer that was just pretty terrible. Looks like they are trying to get him to be Vespi-like and usable in that way.

Overn has had a nice start to his career. I got my eyes on him last night when he hit his first professional homerun, a pull job down the right field line on an 0-1 middle slider from a righty. He also made a decent accurate throw to home from left field but there was a bit of an arc to the throw that would make me think it was more of an average arm then anything plus. Speed wise he's not a burner, but seems quick. Colin woody has basically given all of his players green lights to be aggressive stealing bases but he's just 10 for 16 so far. I'm a little surprised BA would have him ranked 85th overall, but I haven't had a good enough look to say whether that's too aggressive or not right yet.

I agree whole heartily. The Orioles have a ton of high velocity guys in the minor leagues, but it's rare to find the pitchers. Having technology and data can be great tools, but they are tools, not the be all end all. I can show you pitcher after pitcher with great movement, but bad numbers because they can't command the baseball. Sure, they will get their share of whiffs and Ks when they do, but the consistency is not there with a lot of these guys. Even in the majors, I've seen pitch movements of pitchers on statcast with a ton of red showing plus movement, but then you go look at the results and they're not good. Pitch movement and velocity are certainly great factors in having success, but command is the piece that must be mixed in and that is part of my issue with the guys the Orioles draft with these high ERAs and bad walk numbers in college. There's a reason these guys were not great against college hitters, and most of it is because of a lack of consistency.

Perhaps. I've been critical at times of Hyde not protecting his rookies from getting those bad calls, or at least letting these umpires know that he doesn't appreciate those terrible calls which seemingly are directed towards his rookies. Saying that, I think Hyde overall does a decent job of barking when he needs to. i mean, clearly they were not trying to hit Kjerstad in the head, but I can't blame him for barking at the pitcher as well as the bench when they barked back (which I also don't blame).

Well Chris Davis couldn't hit a baseball by that point, but he probably still could squish a skull if he wanted to, so can't blame Hyde for not wanting that!

Yeah, those are some good points. I do think their emphasis on bringing on coaches that understand the technology and data over guys that have experience teaching pitching could be an issue. I don't see a lot of pitchers throwing to all quadrants of the strike zone, changing speeds, knowing when to pitch to contact and when to go for that strike out. I also think they are throwing too many different pitches, which does not allow to them "master" a few that may make them successful at higher levels. When I hear of a pitcher in A ball with 5 pitches, then I see them and I'm like, you have two pitches, and three crap offerings. Now, I understand development and sometimes guys need to throw "crap offerings" to try and improve them. So I'm thinking you go with the main two pitches and use that one development pitch, maybe two at most to improve. Some guys you just look at when they get tired, their delivery, and the fact they have the makings of a two or three pitch reliever and you should take that and develop them as such. At least that's what I would do once they reach AA, and especially once they reach AAA or 25-26 years old.

Say what you want about Elias and his staff building a bullpen, but they never stop looking for additional arms that could help, even if just for a few games. They seem to be using that last bullpen spot to keep trying guys out and see if they catch another Brandon Webb or Danny Coulombe. Can't hurt and the way Burch has pitched and the fact that he has an option means you can send him down and bring up Anderson. Like @CaptainRedbeard said, he's a product of the Dodgers pitching lab and they probably did not have space for him in a deep bullpen. Then again, he only pitched three times in their system, so who knows? In his one excellent appearance in AAA on August 21st, here was his statcast: Here was his pitches with KC this year: I don't see a ton of change besides he moved up his 4-seam usage to 50% from 22.5% with KC which seems surprising since that was hit hard with KC this year. Burch Smith has better movement on his pitches: But Smith's cutter and curveballs have gotten hit a bit. I don't know if Anderson is going to be better than Smith or not. Basically they're both 6th inning guys and guys you'd rather not be working in high leverage.

People can say what they want about Hyde, but that was at least fun to watch! I would want Hyde to have my back in a fight! He seems like the loyal type and his perpetual scowl would scare most aggressors away!

This... The way the offense has been hitting of late, I don't think any pitcher is going to be easy for them. Now could they break out, perhaps, but I don't go into any game thinking the Orioles "should" hit well.

You can disagree all you like, but providing old adages that have been used by minor league development from every team for probably 100 years, and acting like I would not know that is just strange. Now if you think the Orioles have some new fangled pixie dust that they can develop a 26-year old with over 300 innings in the minor leagues into a major league starter when he's put up an 8 ERA, then great, tell us that. I provided my reasonings and you can certainly dismiss them, but please don't act like I don't understand how traditional development occurs.

But he not a starter. He's shown over and over that he's not consistent enough nor does he have an out pitch against lefties. What has he done on any consistent basis that makes you think he's a starter that's just going to suddenly click? You want to know what pitches he's "working on?" Go look at his statcast information like I did and you can see. I don't need to guess what they have him working on, I can see the pitch counts. What I also can do is go look at his game by game stats, his pitch quality through stat cast, his stats against righties and lefties, his age, and his experience. We can do all of that without knowing what "magic" anyone thinks that they are working with him on. I'm sure the Orioles great track record of developing minor league pitching would certainly give people the warm and fuzzies that they are doing what's right once again, right? Maybe just maybe, there is a different way to do these things, and maybe just maybe a few of these guys will make their way up and help this team win games. But nah, let's just hope they are sprinkling their Holt fairly dust on these guys as they work them in roles that have seen them put up an 8 ERA this year. I'm sorry, I'm no longer giving this organization the benefit of the doubt that they are developing pitchers correctly. We already know they can't draft and evaluate them well, which is why they don't spend their draft capital on them. I'm sure some SIGBOT tells them not to draft pitchers until later, but that same SIGBOT is drafting a lot of failed college hitters after the 1st round and allowing the few ones that do look good to be traded away for a major league version of Bruce Zimmermann, who was already on the 40-man roster. I know Elias and SIGBOT have done well is several areas, but identifying, drafting, and developing pitching is not one of them. Through sheer numbers and luck one should hot at some point you would think, but if they need to identify when a pitcher reaches about 25 years old (depending on injury history), what he does well and what role he will be most effective as. Maybe Armbruester will never be anything, but what I would bet a good amount money on is that he's not going to be an effective major league starter at this point without a complete make over or new pitch.

So you think Armbruester is a starter?

That is not what I'm talking about at all. Ugghhh, that's so frustrating. It's like you are talking to me like I haven't been doing this for 28 years! Why would you even throw this out there like I don't know why pitchers are sent out to start initially? Of course you take guys early on and give them innings to develop them. I'm talking about an almost 26-year old with 348 minor league innings under his belt. It is time to develop him in the role that he MIGHT be able to help you at, not in a role you know he's no going to help you at. Good development organizations know when to convert their pitchers to a role they may help in and not keep them in roles that they are not going to be successful at in the major leagues.

I posted this in the Delmarva thread, but I'll post it here as well. Tall, lanky right-hander with a bit of a herky, jerky delivery. Announcer said low-mid 90s fastball but then never gave another velocity reading (I don't know if these guys just don't have velocity readings during the games or what, but both Delmarva and Aberdeen's announcers rarely give velocity readings and it's frustrating). His best pitch is a slider that his good horizontal movement that he'll throw in any count. In fact, seemed to be his go to strike pitch most of the outing. He did get swings and misses on his fastball up at times, but pitches off the slider. He has a show me, get me over slow curveball that wont be effective at upper levels, and did show a decent changeup a few times against lefties, getting two swing and miss Ks with the pitch low in the dirt. Doesn't have a good feel for the pitch, but can use it to get low-A lefties to chase.

I've been critical of the Orioles drafting and developing of pitchers but Justin Armbruester could be a success story if the Orioles would just develop him right. A 12th round pick in 2021, I first started to notice him in Aberdeen and thought that they may have found something. Even then he kind of screamed out to me that he was a relief prospects because his change was not good and none of his breaking balls were overwhelmingly good, but his fastball was able to miss bats. He's made his way through the system up to AAA last year and in AAA he's been utterly consistently inconsistent. But he will flash you stuff that suggest if you narrow his innings down, they might have a usable piece. In other words, Justin Arbruester is a minor league pitcher that just screams out "Move me to relief." I just don't get how or why the Orioles refuse to take guys like this and convert them to relief so they can learn how to warm up quickly and pitch often. Why are they running him out to start when he's got no out pitch for a lefty consistently? Now, could he be a matchup guy a bit? Maybe. He just had his best start of the year with a 12 K, 1 ER (homerun, which is a problem for him) last night. He was mainly effective yesterday with his fastball and cutter, with a mix of his sweeper and curveball at times. I'd love to see whether he would get a tick up in velocity if he knew he was coming in for one inning. He's way too inconsistent to be considered a starter. He's not young, it's time to see what he looks like in a relief role in Norfolk! Now, do I know if his stuff will tick up a bit, absolutely not. Will he need to find something to defend himself against lefties, yep. Is he probably nothing more than an up/down 6th inning guy, probably. But what we know he's not is going to be an effective major league starter. Why keep running him out in this role. He's almost 26-years old. He's got some tools to work with and maybe cutting him down to fastball, cutter, and one of his breaking balls (sweeper probably) would allow them to tick up? It's time to make the move and maybe they wouldn't have to keep signing minor league free agents who opt out of their minor league contracts if they would develop some of their own relievers.

Arbruester just screams out "Move me to relief." I just don't get how or why the Orioles refuse to take guys like this and convert them to relief so they can learn how to warm up quickly and pitch often. He was effective yesterday mainly with his fastball and cutter and mix of his sweeper and curveball. I'd love to see whether he would get a tick up in velocity of he knew he was coming in for one inning. He's way too inconsistent to be considered a starter. He's not young, it's time to see what he looks like in a relief role in Norfolk!

Garcia had a nice year down in the DSL and is a little under the radar. He seemed to have gotten hurt at some point and never played again unfortunately, but he's certainly a guy who should be followed in the FCL next year.

Tall, lanky right-hander with a bit of a herky, jerky delivery. Announcer said low-mid 90s fastball but then never gave another velocity reading (I don't know if these guys just don't have velocity readings during the games or what, but both Delmarva and Aberdeen's announcers rarely give velocity readings and it's frustrating). His best pitch is a slider that his good horizontal movement that he'll throw in any count. In fact, seemed to be his go to strike pitch most of the outing. He did get swings and misses on his fastball up at times, but pitches off the slider. He has a show me, get me over slow curveball that wont be effective at upper levels, and did show a decent changeup a few times against lefties, getting two swing and miss Ks with the pitch low in the dirt. Doesn't have a good feel for the pitch, but can use it to get low-A lefties to chase. At 23-years old, he probably needs to be challenged in High-A. I wouldn't say he's a prospect per se, but I wouldn't NP him with this look. Somebody to follow as he moves up the system just to see how his stuff plays on the way up.

I really do appreciate the MiLB TV broadcasts and realize not to expect broadcast quality. Saying that, it's a little frustrating when the camera person not only could not track the ball to get to the outfielder in time for him to field it then by the time he makes a throw to the plate, the camera guy misses the play at the plate, then changes misses the throw by the catcher to the 2B. I did see the SS tag a runner that was caught in the run down.

Actually the Carolina League has pretty good coverage, just not where they played last week. He plays at home tonight so it should be our first look.

I would be surprised if Gibson is not challenged at AA before the year is out.

The games were not on MiLBTV and were away.