Tony-OH

It is certainly a risky proposition to sign young players, pre arbitration to long contracts. That does not mean it does not work sometimes, but it's certainly a situation where the GM needs to be sure this is the player you not only build around, but who they think has a good chance of staying healthy. Obviously the closer a young player gets to free agency the harder it will be buy out those arbitration years in order to get a discount on those free agency years. It will be interesting to see if Elias goes this route since he may think he pipeline with adequately replace his young players before they become ultra expensive (assuming they become stars.)

This is where I think he'll start his career. They could start him instead of Voth and use Voth as the piggyback, but I think they'll ease him in.

I think I differ here. We've been through some bad, awful teams and I'm not sure I'd sell the future for a quick win, even if it meant a World Series.

Agreed to an extent. But would you want to by the Marlins? Would you trade Rutschman, GRodriquez, Henderson and Holliday tomorrow if it guaranteed you a world series next year, knowing you would have to break the team back down to a loser for years afterwards? I think everyone's goal is to win a World Series, but the best way to get there is to build a consistent winner that gets you into the playoffs and you catch fire at the right time.

Good post, but this is what I want to highlight. The fact is the Orioles can afford to keep their stars unlike the Rays. the fact is the Orioles can afford to carry a top ten payroll when it's all said and done. Can they afford to be top 3 like they were in the late 90s, no, but this team can be a solid mid-market team. The Astros success is probably the goal, but I know I'd rather have a 87+ win team every year and take my chances in the playoffs then sell their soul for a chance at a World Series only to go back to losing for many years like the Marlins. Personally, I think Elias is setting the team up to have replacement for some star players so he won't have to pay them all. That's a good thing overall, but no, I don't want to be like the Rays knowing as soon your young stars get good and the team is on the cusp they are always traded and you start over. Maybe Elias is building hybrid Tampa/Astros model?

"Let the process do it's thing, and stick with that!" Rutschman on how he focuses on winning the pitch to pitch battles vs looking at the numbers. https://www.mlb.com/video/rutschman-talks-rookie-season?q=rutschman&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

https://www.mlb.com/video/adley-rutschman-s-improvements Really good piece and fun to watch to former major leaguers fawn over Adley, but this was eye opening to me: Now that's some bat speed.

Better base stealer.

Be nice to have a left-handed power bat on the bench for this guy. Wonder where we would get one of those?

Can't be a feared #4 hitter if you swing at 2 feet outside sliders.

Hey, no more soccer talk in this thread.

Well sorry to say this, but you showed your complete and utter ignorance of how to use statistics to judge how a player MAY do in the major leagues.

https://jonmeoli.substack.com/p/what-are-the-orioles-top-hitting?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Meoli continues to do some outstanding reporting on the Orioles and how they are doing business. “All we have is what’s in front of us today, so that’s the message,” Norfolk hitting coach Tim Gibbons told me over the phone Wednesday. “We’re not worried about when the call’s coming. They’re not worried about any of that outside noise. How are we going to win today? How are we going to attack this pitcher today, and how are we going to get better today? That’s the main focus for all of those guys.”

Great job in adding in the videos from the Orioles tweets. Really adds a dimension for people if they didn't see the game.

Henderson for sure would be here if not for service time. Urias would move over to Second. BTW, Urias in his small ample size at 2B is 0.5 DPR which means he's been better than average at turning DPs from second after being a bit at ) DPR last year, which means he doesn't hurt you. Then the question is, who do you bench for Stowers if Henderson comes up as well? Vavra would make a nice Pinch hitter and he can play the outfield to give him extra PAs resting Hays against good right-handers. Or you rotate 1B/LF/RF/CF/DH between Mountcastle (1B), Santander (RF/1B/DH), Vavra (DH/LF/CF), Hays (LF/RF/CF), Stowers (RF/DH) and Mullins (CF) between these six giving them each a day off every six games.

In what world does a .244/.324/.413/.736 AAA slash line in 559 PAs and a .251/.345/.399/.744 in 540 AA PAs translate to a near .800 OPs hitter in the major leagues? Nevin is not a good major league hitter nor does he bring value defensively at 3B. Your fascination with him and McKenna (who has proved who he is and what's he's not) boggles my mind.

I'm not hand-wringing over Stowers not being on the team, but I do think he makes the team better. Right now, the Orioles are winning with what they got, so they probably don't feel a need to change the starting lineup significantly. As for Odor, literally the only stat I could find that makes him Odor useful even defensively is DPR (double play runs) which is part of the UZR equation and he ranks at 1.1 runs saved. Here is the definition of DPR: The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter. By the Fielding Bible's standard he's been worth 0 rGBD (runs saved) for double plays. rGBD is part of the formula for DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). His overall defensive values are all below average in every metric you use: UZR/150 (-4.8), DRS (-5), OAA (-4) and dWAR (-0.9). So even if you value the 1.1 runs saved throughout the season from double plays if you go by the UZR metric, he still offsets that with his poor range and errors. Now the real question is, is Vavra that bad at 2B that he would significantly down grade the defense from Odor? I'll be honest, I don't know the answer. I do feel he has a below average arm and I was never impressed with Vavra overall at second base, but I believe his bat can overcome his deficiencies there and adding Stowers bat over Odor is going to make the team better.

Nevin is not a major leaguer and McKenna is being used just fine in matchup that gives him the best chance to succeed with hi limited hit skill.

Whhhhhhhaaaaaattttttttt?????????????? Are you looking at the right guy? Stowers has a .367 OBP, .553 SLG for a .920 OPs in AAA. That's not good? He has a 140 wRC+ which shows him significantly better than the league. Does he strike out a lot, sure, but he's also cut his K rate to a career best 23.9% vs 30.4% last year in AA. The only thing that makes sense to keep him down is they don't want to sit Vavra right now and they don't think he can handle second base defensively. While he may need some time to adjust to major league pitching, I don't think anyone thinks he's not better than what Odor does offensively. Defensively, Stowers is about average with an average arm in RF. He moves good well enough to fill in at center, but he will be below average there. It will be interesting to see his burst speeds when that's available since I never get the feeling he gets great jumps. Saying that, his bat will play in the majors, but he's below McKenna an Phillips defensively so until they can remove Odor from second base (and I think Vavra can't be that bad that his bat doesn't make him better than Odor overall), there is no place for Stowers to play everyday. Personally I think you send Odor to the bench, let Vavra take over 2B, and move Stowers into RF and let him rotate with Santander between RF and DH.

This piece was designed to talk about who I think are the best teams going forward and the hope they will settle things down and stick with these best teams. My goal was not deride the ones who I don't think are great fits in certain positions. I don't want this to get into a bashfest of anyone, but rather celebrate those who came out of the group as THE duos in my opinion.

Thanks for expanding upon the nuances of McDonald's analysis. When he's staying away from discussing the "blue dot" on the slider and getting into these kinds of things, he's excellent. It's like watching a game with a coach who is thinking through the pitcher-batter matchup, something I've always enjoyed doing myself, especially when I know the pitcher's arsenal and the hitter's tendencies.

I update on Mondays.

Probably ought to call this list of guys, good org guys who maybe, maybe could be interesting. Roberts could possibly find his way into a cup of coffee as a back up catcher in some September in the future somewhere since he's competent defensively and can run into a fastball occasionally. Welk struggles with good offspeed pitches and now that he's moved to the outfield there is a ton of pressure on his bat. I also have questions over the bat speed now. Valdez is a slap hitter with great speed, but no real position and should especially burn his infield mitt. He'll need to get much better in the outfield to have a thought a a 4th/5th outfielder. Bowens and Teter are guys similar to Daschbach. Bellony's inability to hit offspeed pitches had him hit a wall in Aberdeen hard. Moore is semi-interesting since he's similar to Tate. He's gotta command better, but he can show mid-90s with a nice change on occasion or slider. He very well could get on the back of my list if he can make it to bowie and get guys out. McCarty, Lucas and Stauffer have well below average stuff and nothing to get big league hitters out with. But good research overall.

Well it's his nickname in the clubhouse and I think the guy is a darn likeable dude, so I imagine they are rooting for him to do well. But they know, Brown especially since he is very efficient in statcast and fangraph type of stats. I do think talk up the good defense a little too much, but that's one I'm giving them a bit of a pass on because they do it when discussing Hays and Santander as well.

Are you talking about the "def" category when you say improvements? I've looked at the glossary and tried to figure out the math, but I have no idea how they come up with the number. Look at the Orioles and Phillies second baseman and tell me how the Orioles should rank over them? I don't get it. Now the one thing to remember is that the Orioles ran out Rio Ruiz to start the year at 2B and that should tell you how prepared they were for that position in 2021. Valaika led the team in starts, followed by Urias, Wilkeson, Jones, Ruiz and Leyba. It was a disaster area defensively. Orioles 2021 vs 2022 rGDP – Double Play Runs Saved runs above average -4 vs 1 rGFP – Good Fielding Plays Runs Saved runs above average 0 vs 0 rPM – Plus/Minus Runs Saved runs above average -5 vs -4 DRS – Defensive Runs Saved runs above average -9 vs -3 DPR – Double Play runs above average -1.7 vs 1.9 UZR/150 – Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 defensive games -0.8 vs -3.5 RAR – Runs Above Replacement (Bat + Fld + run + Rep + Pos) -20.6 (30th) vs - 6.2 (29th) The biggest improvement I can see is in Double Play runs above average where the Orioles have gone from -1.9 in 2021 to the league leaders in 1.7 in 2022. Are they better than the slop of players who played 2B in 2021 who finished a remarkable 11.7 RAR behind the 29th worse team 2B, but they are still the next to last with Odor playing the vast majority of the starts at 2B.