Tony-OH

You'll see in my "Other players to watch in 2022" coming out Monday why I have him just off the list. I really went round and round with him because the numbers say he should be on the list. Let's say he was heavily in the running for the back end of the list and I don't have an issue with anyone who thinks he should be. There's a good argument to made for him to be there, but for me, he fell just off.

Hernaniz is very similar to Servideo when it comes his most likely outcome, but I was a little disappointed by the tools I saw this year from Hernaniz this year. Nothing really stands out and I'd argue his tools may be more 45 than 50. The slip in plate discipline with the lack of power dropped him for me. He was young for his league and if he gets stronger, he's got a chance, but he doesn't move as well as I would have liked for e middle infielder.

I seriously thought about adding De Los Santos, but want to see him do it at a high level than the DSL. Also he was a bit of an error machine at 3B. He outperformed Hernandez offensively and is the same age, so pedigree aside, there's something to like about him. He's worth watching though and will be in my "Other players to watch in 2022" coming out Monday.

I'm not convinced Peek's stuff works at the major league level since his main out pitch is a high spin rate curveball. I need to see that curveball work wit the major league ball as we saw with Bradish and Kremer, it's not easy to keep that sharp break with the major league ball. Mundy just missed and honestly, I had him on the list until I had some reservation about his K rate climbing, line drive rate falling, and ability to stay on the field. He's also base cloggingly slow. Saying that, he was impressive overall but I want him to do it in AA. Both are worth watching though and will be in my "Other players to watch in 2022" coming out Monday.

Ramirez has lot of power from what I heard, but the bad K-BB ratio at such a low level is a yellow flag for me and his defense wasn't good. He's worth keeping an eye on though, just not Top 30 ready.

Rangel has much better control. Peralta was a pure thrower at 18 years old and had no idea where the ball was going for years.

I knew it would not take Gary long to get a job. He's a great manager and talent evaluator.

I'd like for them to put a professional MiLB TV broadcast together. They had the worse broadcast by far of any affiliate that I watched with few cameras and not even an announcer. If I was Ripken I'd be embarrassed that I'm the owner of a team that is so bare bones run.

Well he is already touching 95 mph, is 18 years old, 6-foot-3, and a bean pole that has a lot of room to add good weight and strength. Obviously future grades with these guys is doing a bit of a wag, but I could be underselling this fastball potential.

Thanks. Glad you enjoy all the work that went into these. More to come on some others coming up.

I can understand not writing a toolsy prospect off after a bad year, but when there are more red flags than tools, and the performance doesn't match up, you have to be able to adjust. But then again, this is how players like Josh Hart stay on some national prospects lists long after they've shown they are not legitimate prospects. If you recall, I was one of the first to be luke warm on Hart (I never even like the videos I saw him at showcase events) then dropped him real low then off the list in two years. Meanwhile I think BA had him at #5 or something.

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/18/30-raul-rangel/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/15/29-hudson-haskin/

It amazes me how long some of these places hold on to some guys as prospects due to draft status.

I like the athleticism, plate discipline, and speed of Servideo and he hasn't played enough to show his potential warts. He's got a chance to go out to the outfield and add value and left-handed hitting utility guy who can get on base, steal a base, and be versatile has some value.

They are very similar prospects and at this point, don't get too caught up in the rankings. Haskins is next at #29. They basically have the same profile for me as 4th outfielders but I just like the plate discipline better for Williams. Watson for me has huge holes in his swing and can't hit anything offspeed. Look at his numbers at Bowie once the league figured him out. He'll hurt a fastball though, but he won't see many if he can't show that he can hit them.

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/17/28-anthony-servideo/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/17/27-donta-williams/

Realistically I base their celling off their tools and age and if almost everything broke right for them. It's probably more of a 90 percentile or higher leaving a little bit for guys that really maximize their game. Look at Rustchman where I give him a 70 ceiling which would make him one of the best catchers in baseball if not the best. 80 level is Hall of Famer. Obviously that's a very tough ceiling to give to anyone because it takes staying healthy and performing over a long time. Rutschman could end up that guy, but that would really require everything to go right at 100%. With the DSL and GCL guys, it tough to do because I don't have a great feel for their tools because I'm going off of reports. That makes ceilings very tough. It like trying to decide what a pitcher's ceiling is for command. To do it as accurate as possible, I'd need to know his strike percentages for each pitch while also looking at whether he repeats his delivery well and his athleticism. If I had statcast data it would also help especially the advanced metrics available to the clubs. So basically there is a some art to this vs direct science.

If you want to keep Neustrom over Stewart, have at it because I don't think Stewart is very good. The thing is, there is no reason to put Neustrom on the 40-man because it's very doubtful he gets selected. He's just not the kind of player that gets taken because there's not a ton of upside and he doesn't bring speed or defensive value. Also, his low LD rate (14.8% at AAA), pull approach and ground ball tendency really concerns me at the major league level. He's a 40 level player with a 45 upside as a platoon guy who brings a little pop.

Your spidey sense are well noted!

Bingo. Neustrom is not getting selected.

DJ Stewart is a pretty good comp for Neustrom overall.

Teams don't typically take platoon 3B/1B types who didn't hit well in the second half of their AA season. I don't see him being protected or taken.

Bannon, Martin and Nevin are all guys that could still be dropped from the 40-man and no one should blink an eye. One thing to remember about adding guys is that if you don't think they aren't going to get selected, you have no reason to add them to the 40-man. There will be free agent signings and waiver claims that are still going to happen. Most of discussion here are on 40 level players, maybe 45 at best. Those guys fall out of minor league trees all the time. The only three that MUST be protected or will be taken is Bradish, Hall and Bautista. Even Vavra might not get selected, but I'd protect him over the three I mentioned earlier.