Tony-OH

He didn't jump Lowther who is ahead of him at #15. Baumler was a guy who I thought the Orioles did a great job in getting into the fold and despite the TJ surgery, he's a guy with a four pitch mix upside and a chance to throw in the mid-90s. Obviously he's an extreme risk who has only thrown one game as a senior, but he's a guy similar to Mayo who could really be a steal when it's all said and done. Next year, I expect him to be assigned to Delmarva where it would not surprise me if they limit him to 3-inning stints early on with a tight pitch limits. Hopefully he can get in 80 innings or so and then we'll have a better idea of what the Orioles have in him.

See my response to Sports Guy above on why I think Lowther will be a starter. As for Bradish, you'll see soon why he's where he's at for me.

This is partially why he's still here. He finally started to pitch decently in September when he was on regular rest and routine. It's still unfathomable to me why he was treated the way he was while Alex Wells and others were kept on regular schedule. I'm a believer in him regardless of his 2021 numbers. I think he's going to end up a solid starter and his fastball will play up better than it did in 2021 to go along with his offspeed pitches which both were successful plus pitches at times. If he regains the feel on his change, that gives him four offerings with different breaks and velocity.

Who are the Orioles 2021 #17 and #18 prospects?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/10/16-carter-baumler/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/10/15-zac-lowther/

Me either, I'm just saying I don't personally think their secrecy helps anyone.

Well every player should be available for the right trade. But if I'm the Orioles, I'd need to be blown away by the offer for Mullins.

Remember, those projections usually take the last three years into consideration. Obviously Mullins was a different guy when he went to hitting all left-handed last year so take those projections of him with a giant gain of salt. His EV last year was 51% percentile, while his max EV was at 67%. His xwOBA was at 68% while his xBA and xSLG were at 78% and 62% respectively. Add in his 86% sprint speed and 96% OOA on defense, and I think it all bodes well for him to repeat his breakout year.

Yes, I call it the Joey Rickard effect. Guys with great OBP who don't have a ton of power in the minors tend to be guys whose walk rates go way down at the major league level so they need to be able to hit for average.

Go looks at their repertoire's on Baseball savant and tell me who you think has a better chance of sticking as a starter?

I agree with this statement. If I think a guy can be converted into a lights out dominant closer, that would have more value to me than a 5th starter type.

There is a little bit to this. I'm not sure I would say "discouraged," but as guys get closer it's easier to evaluate and assess what they will be at the major league level. It's pretty obvious at this point that I have doubts have Bradish and Baumann will stick as starters since they have pitched at higher levels than Rom and Pinto. I value potential starters more than guys I feel will end up being relievers. If I feel a guy has a chance to be an everyday guy, I'd rather have him in my system than a guy who is probably a 40 to 45 level player. Now these guys like Basallo and Hernandez may flame out and not even become 40-45 level players, but in my mind, there's a lot more 40 to 45 level players available which makes them less valuable than a guy who could be a regular or better. Do I feel super great about putting guys on this list this high when I've never seen them play a game? No, but sometimes you have to look at the entire package and give some trust into the scouts who thought they were worth the money they got and the scouts who have seen this since. Again, I'm not saying anyone else is wrong if they have these guys lower, but I will say if I thought there were every day guys at high levels they would be ahead of them. Saying that, I still have a very generic look at some of the 2021 draft picks and don't feel great about evaluations until after they get a full season under their belts. But that's what makes this process interesting to me.

There are guys in the 2021 draft that have not shown up on the list yet who could very well be in the top ten next year with a good season next year. The big difference I see is a very high ceiling top 9, and more depth of players with a ceiling of an every day player.

Yeah, it's hard to project more velocity for a 5-11, 20-year old pitcher, but its not totally out of the question. Pinto uses his fastball pretty effectively despite the mediocre velocity, but his ranking is all about his two plus off speed pitches. His numbers were really some of the best in the organization when it comes to swing and miss. He's got a floor of a multi-inning reliever even with the 92-93 MPH fastball.

Hernandez has an upside of an everyday shortstop with power and a pretty high floor according to people who have watched him. He started to hit better towards the end of his season and his plate discipline was pretty decent overall. I always prefer players with upsides of everyday players or starters over probable 4th outfielders/utility guys or relievers, even high leverage relievers. Now he has an extreme risk so I can understand that some people would prefer a less risky prospect at this point, but this is a guy who could be a top 10 prospect next year with a good year in the FCL or even better, if he makes Delmarva at 18 years old. Now I'll caveat this with that I have no eyes on him other than his original scouting video so I'm going off a lot of what I've been told. I'll have a better feel once he arrives in Delmarva and can get some eyes on.

I think he will be treated like Rom was this year at 21. He'll start in Aberdeen and if he pitches well he'll get promoted to AA before the season is out.

Thanks..

Who are the Orioles 2021 #15 and #16 prospects?

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/07/14-maikol-hernandez/

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/11/04/13-jean-pinto/

Matusz's command never really materialized at the major league level and his changeup disappeared with the major league ball. Matusz is obviously a cautionary tale of never getting too high on a minor league pitcher before they pitch with the major league baseball without unquestionable stuff.

You can believe anything you like. Have at it. I've explained myself if you don't want to accept it, feel free to disagree. Rom has 4 pitches, two of which can be plus and two of which are just below average. Major league starters do need three pitches, but no body said they all need to be major league average or better. With better command his changeup could end up average.

Just so you know, not every signee gets 100k, just that anyone after 10th round can't get more than 100K or it has to come out of their signing bonus allotment. As a 40th rounder, he probably was lucky to get 10K.