Tony-OH

Well remember, I go one one rule of thumb when ranking them, if I could only have one, who would I want in my system. Now saying that, you always have to put in the risk for each player despite the talent. Players that are farther way carry more inherent risk than players who performed well in AA and AAA. Saying that, I've always given upside a higher weight because I'd rather have a guy who still might become a starter or every day regular than a guy I think is going to the pen, going to be a 5th starter, or who is a 4thoutfielder/utility guy. Where is really gets hard is the 1st year guys who weren't bonus babies.

Like always! Hopefully though my answers and rankings have merits on why one is ranked ahead of another. Saying that, I've always said the write ups are more important than the rankings.

Who is the Orioles 2021 #2 prospect?

Adley Rutschman Pos: Catcher Bats: S Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23 2021 Level: AA/AAA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 50/70 Game Power: 50/60 Raw Power: 60/65 Run: 45/40 Defense: 60/70 Season Team Level Age HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO LD% GB% FB% wOBA wRC+ 2019 BAL R 21 1 12.5% 12.5% .143 .250 .357 .607 .214 9.1% 45.5% 45.5% .262 56 2019 BAL A- 21 1 13.0% 17.4% .325 .413 .481 .894 .156 36.1% 26.2% 37.7% .415 166 2019 BAL A 21 2 12.8% 19.1% .154 .261 .333 .594 .179 6.7% 50.0% 43.3% .277 75 2021 BAL AA 23 18 15.4% 15.9% .271 .392 .508 .901 .237 17.2% 38.1% 44.8% .391 145 2021 BAL AAA 23 5 13.0% 17.8% .312 .405 .490 .896 .178 26.6% 30.6% 42.7% .395 142 Stats Most Likely Future Role: Starting Catcher, occasional All-Star Ceiling: Starting Catching, Perennial All-Star What we know: The first overall pick in the 2019 draft by the Orioles, Rutschman is a rare plus offensive and defensive catcher. Widely regarded as the number one prospect in all of baseball by many national publications, Rutschman ended the year in AAA where he put up a .395 wOBA and 142 wRC+. A good hitter from both sides of the plate, he was a better hitter from the right side of the plate where he slashed .350/.439/.621/1.060 vs his .256/.377/.449/.825 mark as a left-handed hitter. His lefthanded swing has more upper cut to it and can get long at times. He can get beat at times up and in on his hands, but he seemed to have closed that hole and shortened the swing a bit as the season went on. He's an extremely smart hitter who can make adjustments within and at bat who gets in deep counts often with his plus plus awareness of the strike zone. Defensively he's already a plus receiver who is able to get many fringe pitches called strikes for his pitchers. He throws well and learned to take care of his arm a bit throughout the season. He threw out 28% of base stealers but that should improve in the major leagues where pitchers are better at holding runners. He's not afraid to throw behind runners accurately and fields his position well. He blocks well behind the plate and is his pitchers biggest cheer leader, running out to them after each inning. If there is one area where he can improve it's setting a still target. He tends to put up a late target that moves a bit as the pitcher is in his motion. Interestingly, he played a very good 1st base when he was rested behind the plate. He showed good hands and was able to make the double play throw to second base accurately. He's an extremely hard worker who's work ethic rubs off on all his teammates. He's a great teammate and will a be positive influence in any clubhouse What we don't know: While there is little doubt Rutschman is going to get on base at a high clip, there's enough miss in his bat that could suggest he may not hit for extremely high average if he doesn't keep that shorter left-handed swing. While he showed off good power, he may end up a 25-30 home run guy vs a 40+ guy on a consistent basis. What we think: Rutschman has all the makings of being a franchise type player who will end up a plus bat and defender as a catcher. He's ready for the major leagues right now and depending on the collective bargaining agreement, he should start the year or play most of the season as the Orioles starting catcher in 2022. https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/10/24/adley-rutschman-c-2/

Other then hopefully seeing him play well because that would mean he's healthy, I don't think it will matter. Mateo will come into next season as either the everyday SS, 2B or super utility guy who plays just about everyday. I think the Orioles are going to give him every opportunity to show he can play everyday at the major league level.

Maybe.. You never know! I've been known to use psychological operations in my options.

Rk Name POS Current Grade Future Grade Ceiling Grade Risk 1 Adley Rutschman C 50 65 75 Minimum 2 Grayson Rodriguez RHP 50 65 75 Low 3 Coby Mayo 3B 30 60 65 High 4 Colton Cowser OF 45 50 60 Medium 5 D.L. Hall LHP 45 55 65 High 6 Gunnar Henderson SS/3B 35 50 65 Medium 7 Kyle Stowers RF 45 50 60 Low 8 Jordan Westburg SS/3B 40 50 55 Medium 9 Heston Kjerstad OF 20 50 65 Extreme 10 Connor Norby 2B 35 50 55 High 11 Drew Rom LHP 40 50 55 Medium 12 Samuel Basallo C 20 50 60 Extreme 13 Jean Pinto RHP 30 50 55 High 14 Maikol Hernandez SS 20 50 55 Extreme 15 Zac Lowther LHP 45 45 50 Low 16 Carter Baumler RHP 20 50 55 Extreme 17 Kyle Bradish RHP 40 45 50 Low 18 Mike Baumann RHP 40 45 50 Medium 19 Joey Ortiz SS 35 45 50 High 20 Terrin Vavra 2B/CF 35 45 50 High 21 John Rhodes OF 30 45 50 High 22 Felix Bautista RHP 40 45 50 Low 23 Brandon Young RHP 30 40 50 High 24 Creed Willems C 20 40 50 Extreme 25 Mishael Deson OF 20 40 50 Extreme 26 Reed Trimble OF 30 40 45 High 27 Donta Williams OF 30 40 45 High 28 Anthony Servideo INF 30 40 45 High 29 Hudson Haskin OF 30 40 45 High 30 Raul Rangel RHP 20 40 50 Extreme 31-75 Prospects 2021 Minor League All-Star team 2020 Prospect List Prospect Grading System: Grade Hitters Starters Relievers 80 HOFer HOFer #1 75 Top 1-2 Top 1-2 #1 70 Top 5 Top 5 #1 65 All-Star All-Star #1-#2 60 Plus #2-#3 Elite Closer All-Star 55 Above AVG #3-#4 Mid-Closer 50 AVG Regular #4-#5 Low-Closer/Elite Setup 45 Platoon/Utilty #5-Swingman Setup 40 Bench Up/Down Middle/Long relief 35 Up/Down Emergency Up/Down 30 Org (AA/AAA) Org (AA/AAA) Org (AA/AAA) 25 Org (AA) Org (AA) Org (AA) 20 Org (A Ball ) Org (A Ball) Org (A Ball)

Who is the Orioles 2021 #1 prospect?

I watched more of Grenier this year than any year before. To me, he's the best defensive shortstop in the system. He's not flashy, doesn't have incredible range or a plus plus arm, but he's about as steady as they come at SS and he's a plus defender at 2B. Of course, the issue is the bat and the more I watched the more I saw his struggles against offspeed pitches. I don't know his EVs but he looks to hit fastballs pretty well overall, but really struggled against anything offspeed. Once the book got out on him in AA, he really, really struggled slashing .187/.320/.302/.622 over his last 285 PAs (from July on). Defensively he's major league ready up the middle, but he's going to have to learn how to hit offspeed if he wants any chance of having a major league career.

You asked what is better, I told you what is better for me. I don't think there are very good ways to determine defense from stats in the minors outside of error totals. Range factor is a terrible metric that has way too many outside factors to put any credence into. Any list that shows Urias at the top of a stats supposedly showing "range" should be disqualified unless the list only includes Pat Valiaka and Rylan Bannon!

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I've never been a believer of the range factor stat, particularly in the minor leagues.

Maybe Blood will feed something to his MASN guys.

I doubt Vespi will be added since he struggled a bit in Norfolk and doesn't have that big fastball that team generally look for the in the Rule 5 draft. I look at him as a potential Paul Fry type but I also see that as a Kevin Smith role too.

This is something that should have been done a long time ago. Glad to see MLB stepping up to provide a better quality of life for their minor league farmhands.

Bringing De los Santos over with Basallo and Hernandez says something.

I would be pleasantly surprised if Willem made Delmarva. I'm not sure why it took him so long to get started and why they shut him down so quickly, but his struggles in his limited playing time suggest he might be more of a long term project vs a fast mover. My guess he will be on one of the FCL teams next year.

I would think he will be along with Hernandez despite Hernandez's relatively lackluster pro debut down there.

Harvey said this about one of his injuries this year. "The spring training thing, I’m about positive it had to do with a weight room thing. We tried a new core exercise, and then two days later, I blew my oblique out. So, it happened to be something that worked the oblique and I think it all adds up together, going from how I’ve never done that exercise to two days later I have a Grade 3 oblique strain. So, I think it just all kind of goes together." Now don't get me wrong, Harvey could probably blow his elbow out opening a jar of peanut butter, but his comments were interesting none the less. Harvey is a guy you gotta keep on the roster in the Orioles situation, in the one off chance he ever can stay healthy, but this is probably his last year. Even if healthy, with EV and barrel rates over his career, you have to wonder if he'll ever be a guy you want in a high leverage situation in a close game.

F cancer for sure. Many prayers for this young man to recover!

Yep, I'm very clear what there roles are.

Great stuff @Frobby

I never said I agreed or disagreed with him, I'm saying anything that comes out of his mouth about a player is going to be roses, unicorns, and sunshine. Some people enjoy that kind of stuff.

It would, and admittedly, I'm just going off what I see of late vs doing any kind of study. Obviously we have Orioles history of guys like Tito Landrum, Rick Dempsey and Delmond Yong coming up big in key situations in the World Series or playoffs and none of them were big stars. I don't know, but what I do know is that teams like the A's and Tampa, who have done great things to change how to compete with a smaller payroll, have also not broken through yet with a World Series victory.

Unless both Rodriguez and Hall pan out to be #1 and #2 pitchers, the Orioles do not have the talent in the system to compete for a World Series pitching wise. There's a Huge drop off to the next level of pitching prospects and with the Elias reluctance to draft pitchers in the low rounds, they are going to have to trade or sign pitching Fee agents. The good news? The Orioles have a lot of room to add salary IF ownership is willing to spend. That's something we just don't know yet with the Angelos brothers.