Sports Guy
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Posts posted by Sports Guy
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12 minutes ago, emmett16 said:
Is it safe to say Kimbrel hasn’t been pretty without being chastised yet? Or are we still clinging to an ultra SSS of success early in season when he was effectively wild in the zone.
Or are you being over the top because of an ultra SSS, where a back injury occurred and he was thrown off his rhythm?
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2 hours ago, Pickles said:
How well Hays plays will determine his role. I expect him to play a lot better than before he got hurt.
But there's no good argument to be made that McKenna is a better option.
Hays has a 617 OPS since last July 1. 71 wRC+ and 269 wOBA.
Now, it’s hard to compare the 2 because McKenna is a part time player but since the beginning of last year, McKenna has 148 PA. His OpS is over 100 points higher, his wRC+ is 105 and he has 320 wOBA.
They both have an OAA of -1 between last year and so far this year.
Now, these are different roles and my guess is McKenna would be exposed playing everyday but guess what, Hays is also being exposed for the last half a year. I think he will be ok going forward but there is no definite there.
So, I think an argument exists and it’s a pretty obvious one. It’s just not likely a super strong argument because we don’t have any idea about McKenna in an expanded role.
There is certainly an argument where the drop off isn’t much right now
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2 hours ago, deward said:
That's the only way trading a top prospect for him makes sense to me. Otherwise, I think it's a bad allocation of resources. Surely Elias can build an effective pen without trading away really valuable assets.
Well if you told me that he will be elite level high leverage reliever for the next 5 years, I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Kjerstad for him. That’s extremely valuable in todays game.
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He got 2 outs and then the command wasn’t great. Credit to the Nats though, they didn’t swing at multiple close pitches that other players may swing at.
Im not even remotely worried about Kimbrel. He has done this the last few years. He has a rough stretch that blow things up but he’s otherwise very good.
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3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Hunter Harvey was in the Orioles system for nine years, and he threw a grand total of 23.2 innings in the majors, and 262.1 innings in the minors. That's 32 innings a year for nine years.
Maybe he becomes the new Rudy Seanez, and pitches 17 years with his arm held together with bailing wire and chewing gum and sometimes has a year like Seanez did with the Padres in '05. But I don't blame the O's at all for moving on after nine years (!) of almost never being healthy.
When Harvey was drafted my oldest kid was in the first grade, and his first 40-inning season in the majors was the year my kid got his driver's license.
Are you trying to say that you’re old?
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Btw, it’s possible Miller goes back to starting. That is, I believe, Oakland’s plan for him long term.
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I’d likely give up Kjerstad for him. It would be a tough decision because I’m worried about Miller holding up physically.
I’m not sure the As would want a 1 for 1 though.
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1 hour ago, Pickles said:
You'd rather watch McKenna?
Honestly, since July 1 of last year, is Hays a better player?
Personally, I’m looking forward to Hays getting back because I do think we need another righty bat with his upside but if he continues to be bad, which has been the case for most of the last 300+ at bats, they may need to have a real conversation about him.
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4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
He has a 100 point career split in favor of LHP. He's going to start his share of games and those will mostly come vs LHP. I'd like to see Kjerstad replacing Santander and Cowser vs LHP on a rotating basis as long as he is on the roster.
Mullins could rest too but he should be replaced by McKenna vs LHP.
I already talked about 2023 and 2024. In 2022, his OpS vs lefties was 324.
Now, prior to 2022, he was very good vs lefties outside of an awful year in 2018…but when you have to go back 3 years, especially at his age, to justify a stat, that’s not a good thing.
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3 minutes ago, Malike said:
Maybe they like him better back there against a speedy team.
3 minutes ago, Malike said:Maybe they like him better back there against a speedy team.
That explains tonight..not all season
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And btw, I see the Os as having an elite defensive IF for years to come, so that makes DeLeon a potentially even more valuable commodity.
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Can we please stop catching McCann so much?
He has a 531 OPS vs lefties this year and it was sub 600 last year.
Much rather see Adley catch and have Kjerstad go against a lefty.
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4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:
I love that we have him because he's a true SP prospect, and a lefty to boot. That said, I'm not sure what his actual ceiling is. The stuff is good, but not dominant, right?
I'm thinking his ceiling is a #2/3 starter at this point. I certainly like that, but he's not in the Grayson Rodriguez level of prospect is he?
Probably not quite that high but if he’s going to be a big K guy, miss bats, keep the walks down and throw a ton of GBs, that’s basically the dream profile.
Now, he obviously has a ways to go and personally, I agree with Tony that he needs to go Aberdeen but the profile is what you want.
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Yes of course they should.
But should they play 150+ games? No
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43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
He gets a lot of weak ground ball and Baltimore chops which allows him on occasion to get a quick out. He can miss bats when he needs to but he also is not afraid to pitch to contact this year because of the movement of his pitches.
I saw his swingstr% is 17%. MLB average is around 20% although that includes relievers too, so starters are probably a little worse than that.
He’s not far off but certainly would like to see more.
The ceiling is so high with this guy.
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17 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I’m not necessarily against this, just because Kjerstad needs more opportunity to show what he can do. Not sure it’s an upgrade but I wouldn’t mind finding out.
Right. It may not be an upgrade. I feel pretty good saying it will be but I would certainly not guarantee it..but yes, let’s find out.
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1 hour ago, Orioles Jim said:
Just curious, where does Westburg fit in as far as everyday/what kind of games starter would be optimal for him, IYO?
Need to see a little more from him. Right now, I would have no issue with treating him like I said Mounty IF we had multiple IFers up here and needed to get at bats for everyone.(but obviously, this isn’t currently an issue)
That said, his trajectory is that of an everyday guy.
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4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
I'd say Adley's splits vs RHP are far more troubling. His job isn't threatened though so I guess it is not a developing situation?
He had a 777 OPs vs righties last year and just under 900 the year before. Right now, the struggles are nothing more than a SSS.
That said, he was terrible vs lefties his first season. You wonder if he has concentrated more on hitting lefties vs righties?
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6 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:
Just curious since you make the distinction often, what's your full season PA threshold to call someone an "everyday" player?
You know what, I actually mess that up. I always say at bats and that’s really not right..it should be PA but anyway, my threshold is more of a games started type of thing.
for me, the Os only have 1 everyday player and that’s Gunnar. Everyday being defined as 155+ games. Adley, being a C, should rest (as in a full game off) more often imo.
After that, it just varies.
I think yon could say a guy playing 135 games is an everyday guy. I’m not trying to nitpick on semantics. I look at it more as, take away PA from someone.
I have said I think this will be one of, if not the best, year of Mounty’s career. I don’t want him sitting too much but I don’t see anything wrong with saying he’s a 550ish PA guy vs 650ish.
Now, if he’s on fire and hitting all pitching, that plan can obviously be altered but the current plan for me would be to target 550ish PA..so, 135-140 games.
It’s not a huge difference but you do that with him, with Santander and with Hays and all flan sudden, you find a bunch of at bats for a young hitter with bigger upside.
That’s really what all of this is about. I have never once said I want Cowser and Kjerstad playing everyday. They aren’t Gunnar. They aren’t Holliday or Mayo either, 2 other guys I expect to be true everyday guys.
But they can play 135-140 games, just like Mounty and be really good imo.
Right now, there are vet bats here stopping that. For me, I’m looking for ways to get the bats in the young guys hands as much as possible and I don’t feel sacrificing at bats from a good but not great player is some tragic way of doing that.
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59 minutes ago, Frobby said:
wildcard has always been kind of obsessed with single season (or partial season) platoon splits. But first of all, in the context of 2024 so far, Mountcastle’s “bad” .711 OPS vs. RHP is still good for an above average 104 sOPS+. Second of all, I consider his career split of .740 vs. RHP over 1,344 PA to be a more meaningful indicator of how Mountcastle is likely do going forward, compared to the 87 PA he’s had this year. So I’m not in any hurry at all to change his role. Does it bear watching? Only if it goes south of where things are now for a significant period of time, IMO.
Everything you say here is true and I would still plan on Mounty being a 550ish PA guy. Right now, he’s on pace to be more like 625.
The OPS isn’t awful, as you point out but would it be surprising if Kjerstad could do better? No, not at all. So, I think Mounty needs to sit a little more.
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38 minutes ago, Frobby said:
It’s almost bizarre, given the “swing decisions” mantra of the last several years. The team was steadily getting more patient, and then it wasn’t. I think it’s a reaction to how they’re being pitched, but perhaps an overreaction.
They like the homer perhaps a little too much.
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I would like to see the team be a little more patient. The whole second worst in the league in walks thing isn’t something that’s positive.
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I think this has developed. He is, as with so many guys on the roster, not an everyday player.
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Craig Kimbrel 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
It was 3-1 when Kimbrel was taken out, right? Akin only needed to get one out before 2 runs scored, correct?