Sports Guy
-
Posts
65254 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
301
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Sports Guy
-
-
2 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:
Sure but 2023 and 2024 are the most relevant data points in this conversation. And again, 103 wRC+ against LHP with the Orioles.
But this isn't really true. He had a bad month of May. From June 1st on: 109 wRC+. That's excluding his 4 for 5 in the playoffs too, all against LHP. To recap:
Tenure with Orioles (2021-2024) against LHP: good
2023 Orioles against LHP: good
2024 Orioles against LHP: really good
Since May 1st 2023 against LHP: good (still above league average without the positive outlier!)
Since June 1st 2023 against LHP: even better
You just picked a purposeful stretch from May 1st 2023 to the end of the 2023 that excludes his positive outlier and includes his negative outlier to make a point.
Not really. I just remember seeing numbers last year that after April, he wasn’t good. I’m not sure what the break downs are for splits by month.
-
15 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:
Mateo shouldn't be starting against RHP. I expect Holliday to get another chance and I'm expecting much better results.
But I think you tried to paint Mateo as not even an effective platooner, with his splits being propped up by April 2023. I think the numbers show that isn't the case. Pretty misguided to exclude the positive outlier and include the negative outlier.
Prior to 2023, the best season he had vs lefties was a 664 OPS.
April of 2023 saw him have a huge month. He was terrible vs lefties the rest of the year.
In 42 at bats this year, he is off to a good start. So, the early start to this year and April of last year are driving his numbers. The rest of his career, he has been awful.
Now, all of these things are a SSS and maybe what we saw in April and what we are seeing now shows that he can do it and that expecting a 100ish OpS+ is fine going forward.
But he doesn’t have a place on this team doing that because none of the positions he plays will call for him to get playing time because those players are everyday guys.
The exception to this will be if he can handle CF. If he can, I could see something being worked out there.
-
9 minutes ago, LTO's said:
I like Mayo and hope/expect he'll be up at some point but if the Orioles really make acquiring a RH bat a priority at the deadline they can definitely get someone who is more help than Mayo this year.
I don’t think you know what definitely means
-
33 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:
Right. But May 2023 is also an outlier. Usually outliers don't re-occur. Put them together and you get typical Jorge Mateo.
Jorge Mateo vs. LHP since joining the Orioles back in 2021: 103 wRC+. With great defense. That's a contributor.
He's just being asked to do something he's not. He should not be starting vs. RHP.
I didn’t say he’s not a contributor. You are arguing something no one else is. But the talk of will Holliday be a better option is lunacy.
-
5 minutes ago, Frobby said:
You’ve got to think that the minor leaguers are well aware of it when the boss is there to watch them play, right?
I’m sure he spoke with them before the game started.
-
24 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:
Eh. If you want to throw out Mateo's April, can we throw out Mateo's May too? Neither is reflective of the quality of hitter he is.
2023 Mateo April: 1.062 OPS (not reflective)
2023 Mateo May: .316 OPS (not reflective)
2023 Mateo April and May combined: .659 OPS (very reflective) vs. Mateo Career: .639 OPS
Mateo 2023 vs. LHP: 108 wRC+ (keeping April and May)
Mateo 2023 vs. LHP from May 1st on: 78 wRC+ (removing April)
Mateo 2023 vs. LHP from June 1st on: 109 wRC+ (removing April and May)
Mateo vs. LHP from May 1st 2023 until present: 108 wRC+
So I think throwing out April while keeping May isn't giving him enough credit. Even throwing out April of 2023, he's been good against LHP since May 1st if you just extend the time range. He just can't be playing against RHP. That's where Holliday comes in.
I’m not throwing it out. It happened. But it’s a clear outlier in his career. That is obvious. Usually outliers don’t re-occur.
-
If he can be a 780+ OPS guy, teams will find somewhere for him to play..so I say yes, assuming he hits.
-
12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
BTW, that’s Elias in the stands to the right. You can see him look up as Holliday makes contact.
-
3
-
-
6 hours ago, Hallas said:
Urias looks pretty cooked too though, and he's not providing the kind of defensive flexibility that Mateo is, and he doesn't have very good splits for platooning. At least for 2023 and 2024 Mateo has had good platoon splits.
I’m not talking about Mateo vs Urias though.
Mateo’s April last year helped drive those lefty splits. He was awful after April vs lefties (and righties).
-
1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:
I think the question is whether Holliday will be ready this year. He is very young and may not be able to match Mateo's production. I hope Holliday is ready but I'm glad we have Mateo as a Plan B if he struggles.
When Mateo goes back to being a sub 650 OPS guy, I doubt you will be glad.
-
Just now, oriolediehard said:
Why can't the O's try Cade Povich or McDermott in the BP?
They may but those guys still may be needed in the rotation this year. You never know with injuries and stuff like that.
-
4 minutes ago, Pickles said:
Ok, so maybeeeeee you'd trade Kjerstad??? Because what else is more valuable than Stowers or Norby?
There are no ML pieces to give up now that would make sense.
I find the presumption that Mayo can just pick up RF and play it better than Hays or Santander at the ML level in a few weeks faulty.
1) There are plenty of ML pieces that make sense to trade.
2) that doesn’t surprise me because you overrate those players
3) Povich, McDermott, some of the Intl talent and you can argue guys like Bradfield and Beavers could be more valuable than those guys.
Those guys are fine to trade but limiting to them as the “best guys” is faulty and close minded.
-
14 minutes ago, Since1984 said:
Not saying that at all, but Holliday taking up a spot on a mlb roster in the playoffs should mean he has a proven mlb bat.
Without question, Mateo is the better fielder and runner as a 2b option (as we type).
Holliday will be the clear better option by then.
-
8 minutes ago, Since1984 said:
Not disagreeing with your take, but Mateo has better speed, defense and mlb experience. His adaptation to 2b defense tells me he’s the better defender in 2024+
Will Holiday’s bat play in 2024? It is an open question.
Please stop overrating and overvaluing Mateo. Os fans really can’t learn their lesson with this guy.
He is thriving in his role right now and that’s great. He looks to be turning into a good super UTI guy although we still need to see more of it.
But let’s stop with the idea that he should play over Holliday long term this season.
-
18 minutes ago, Pickles said:
Where are the ABs for Mayo? Verse a lefty you have Hays/Santander/Mountcastle above him as a bat. He's worse than them defensively. There's abs for him at DH vs LHP. If you stop using it to rest Rutch. Are you ready to bring him up to do that and only that? Because there's not 200 abs in that role for the rest of the season.
It's not about Mateo vs Holliday. It's about Holliday didn't look ready to be playing in the MLs. If 3 weeks in the MiLs can fix that, great. I'm skeptical.
As to what to trade, instead of just throwing out stupid descriptives, give me names. Are you willing to trade Basallo? Mayo? Kjerstad? Because if not, then Stowers and Norby are about the best you have.
I’m willing to trade anyone but Holliday, Mayo and Basallo..in terms of prospects.
Im also willing to trade some ML pieces.
As for Mayo…yes I think there are at bats there vs lefties all over…enough to justify him being brought up after he gets time in RF and shows he can handle it.
-
27 minutes ago, Jagwar said:
I'm only suggesting that I would not like it if it took giving up a Kjerstad and Basallo to get the top talent the team needs.
Kjerstad is the best prospect we have that you can argue should be available in the right deal.
The question is his defense and that could be enough to trade himself. I would rather keep him but should be available in the right deal.
-
13 minutes ago, orioles119 said:
I don't see Adley in your initial list SG.
My bad. He can make the roster I guess.
-
7 minutes ago, Pickles said:
Yeah, I had a very similar reaction to the thread about upgrading McCann and Urias as well. Those roster spots aren't what is going to define this season.
But I'm not sure I agree with your remedies.
1) I'm not against getting a high leverage reliever, but I'm not willing to give up value beyond Stowers and Norby, so I don't see how high leverage that gets you.
2) That sounds about right, but we don't know if he can outperform Mateo this year.
3) The only way there's really significant at-bats for Mayo in lieu of an injury is if he's a better defender than Santader in RF, or they feel comfortable w him in LF, and that seems highly unlikely.
There are clearly at bats available for Mayo and let’s not get into this overrating Mateo stuff again. You should have learned your lesson.
He is doing well in a part time role and they are riding him playing well for the moment but Holliday is the clear better option and will be the obvious starter within 6 weeks. And we all know this isn’t what Mateo really is. That has been proven.
That said, he can have a role on this team and he is proving to be an asset, which is good to see.
As for what to trade, I think that’s an awful take but it is what it is. Some people are ok with hoping for the best and if that doesn’t work out, so be it.
-
23 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Yeah, but the White Sox couldn’t have used him…they have a .701 OPS at SS and .544 at 3B. Ortiz now sitting at .895.
Just showed the ignorance of that board. I’m fine with them saying they wanted someone younger.
But saying he won’t be good and comparing him to guys where he had numbers that far exceeded them was just lazy and flat out stupid. 90% of that board looks like complete fools over many things that have happened since we were on it.
They were way wrong on many things and don’t even seem to have a pulse on their own team.
-
-
9 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:
I’m not sure who would be available but you’re right that the easiest solution would definitely be to bring up Mayo. Mullins has been almost unplayable against LHP’s the last 3 years (.206 avg and 69 wRC+) and even if you trust Cowser to play CF, that leaves the DH spot open against LHP’s, assuming you aren’t using Urias/McCann there, which you shouldn’t.
Right and we need that other RH bat in the lineup…and Mayo isn’t going to be that bat playing third and probably not first either, at least this year. (He could play third on occasion if they want to rest Gunnar or Holliday but for the most part, that’s not where he will play)
But DH and RF? Yes, there will be at bats there.
-
8 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:
I wouldn’t mind another RH bat if Mayo is going to stay in AAA. I don’t like the idea of having O’Hearn, Holliday, Cowser, and Mullins in the same lineup vs RHP’s with Hays as the only legitimate RH PH option. Or the idea of starting 2 of Mullins/Cowser/Urias/McCann vs LHP’s in the playoffs (as CF and DH).
It will be interesting to see what Elias does with the BP though. Even if Kimbrel pitches well, you gotta think they’re adding another backend guy just because he’s been prone to these stretches where he’s quite bad. And if Kimbrel doesn’t turn it around and can’t be trusted, they probably 2 need pieces as you said. The best closer target would probably be Helsley but Yimi Garcia would be a great add the way he’s pitching right now. And guys like Luis Garcia, Andrew Kittredge, and Austin Adams could be lower profile but solid adds as that potential second piece.
There is no reason to trade for a RH bat because you aren’t likely to get anyone that is more of a help than Mayo.
That said, he needs to come up and adjust to this pitching. As we have seen in recent articles/data, the pitching difference is big and Mayo has some swing and miss in his profile as it is. Let him get 200-300 at bats up here before the playoffs. Give him some time to adjust. No reason to use resources on something you already have.
We don’t need an Aaron Hicks type guy this year. We need a real difference maker. If you want that Hicks type guy as a player off the bench in late innings, so be it. I can see value in that during the playoffs but we need something more than that big picture wise
-
Barring a rash of injuries, the Os are going to be in the playoffs. Seeding matters very little but they will either be the 1 seed or the 4 seed imo.
That said, the reason I mention this is because we have had a lot of discussions about replacing player X or player Y.
The reason to replace this guy or that guy isn’t to improve for the regular season…it’s to improve for the playoffs and give us the best chance to win.
With that in mind, by the time the playoffs get here, these are the players the team will be depending on, again barring injury, unexpected (or continuing) awful performanceor any potential trade:
Offensive players: Mounty, Holliday, Henderson, Westburg, Cowser, Mullins, Hays, Santander and OHearn.
Pitchers: Burnes, Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Irvin, Cano, DC, Kimbrel
That is 18 players. Mateo and McCann will also be on the postseason roster but McCann isn’t likely to see the field, although Mateo will.
That leaves 6 spots. Some of those spots may be filled by internal candidates for the pen or a guys like Mayo, Kjerstad and Norby. Basallo could get in this picture but his continued slow start makes that even more unlikely than it was.
End of the day, the goal the rest of this season should be to get the roster to the point where they can win a title.
For me, that means a few things:
1) Get 1 high leverage reliever and maybe 2.
2) Get Holliday up within the next 6 weeks.
3) Get Mayo playing time in RF now, so he can get up here in the second half and be ready to contribute. They could use his right handed bat.
As of now, you don’t trade for an offensive player or a starting pitcher unless there is one there that you can control for several years.
The resources the team has should go the pen and getting the right arm(s) for October. We consistently see teams go against the Orioles with these dominant pens where everyone is throwing 98+ with big time swing and miss stuff. This is what the Os will be facing in the playoffs, so we need Holliday and Mayo to get up here to face that a lot and we need arms to match those guys in the playoffs.
For me, the playoffs are a foregone conclusion but success in the playoffs is not. This roster isn’t there yet for that but it can be.
-
4
-
-
8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
The only reason people are contemplating trading for an outfielder on a team with like seven or nine good MLB outfielders is that fans are 56 times less patient than GMs. Or at least good GMs, which we have. How many weeks ago was Cowser being touted as a possible MVP candidate? Now he's ready to be DFA'd!
Things never change. Somebody is always caught up in the last two weeks and can't see the season is six months long.
Exactly right.
There is some logic behind trading for an established CFer IF Mullins doesn’t turn it around and if guys don’t show that they can handle the position, even if they are optimal long term options.
But that’s a lot of ifs and we have a ways to go with that.
Now, I would still trade for Robert but he’s not realistic at all because the WS want 110 cents in the dollar for an oft injured player with one great season. Just like they did with Cease, they want to treat the one great season as the norm.
Are we actually 27-14 with the highest runs/game in the AL?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
It’s definitely a negative tone. Twitter is even worse and yes, people lack perspective.
I will say this though…the team’s back for the pen and lack of walks/OBP are real concerns and you will not win in October without improvements in those areas.