geschinger

They could have, it's probably the only contract I've seen so far (other than a mythical long term Correa deal) that could have made sense. But it's not an obvious call. Elias has said that the club’s potential investment in free-agent reinforcements will align with that prolonged period of “maximizing playoff odds.” As most FA value is in the early years of the contract are the Orioles playoff odds maximized with ER in years 3/4/5 and early 30s or signing the equivalent in 2024 and getting years in the late 20s. Obviously the latter offer better odds.

2022 is not about losing on purpose. It is a season like the 2014 Astros. If the Orioles win 15 more games than they did in 2021 givng as many innings and ABs as possible to young players to see what they have is success. It will mean the pipeline is starting to pay off w/MLB caliber talent. If they have another year like 2021 it's a failure.

The Orioles brought in a braintrust from an organization that was rebuilt from the ground up and won a WS to implement a similar strategy in Baltimore. I know you've said several times it's a stupid strategy but I'm not clear how you are arrive at that conclusion considering how wildly successful it has been so recently. Maybe it really is a dumb strategy, maybe it's analagous to the triangle offense in the NBA and only works with the specific conditions Phil Jackson had in Chicago and is destined to fail elsewhere. I hope not and up until this point I see no evidence the strategy will fail in Baltimore.

The Astros farm system similarly as good going into 2014 as the Orioles is today. Sure their potentially may be better approaches but I don't think stupid is the right description for one that worked so well for Houston. As I know you know - there was no minor league season in 2020. Had it been a normal year they lose 100+ in 2020 and everyone at the MiL level is level higher. The 2021 MLB team is better with players like Adley etc.

Astros had 3 100+ loss season, had the lowest paryoll in baseball going into the season the season after. Orioles are coming off their 3rd 100+ loss season and have the lowest payroll in baseball going into the season after. Seems comparable to me.

I'd be more irked if there wasn't a strategy or the organization was behaving like Colorodo with no discernable direction or plan to contend. I do think the Orioles should have signed at least one more starter. I would have liked an ERod signing but not surprised they aren't giving out longer contracts at this stage. For better or worse they are taking the Astros approach. At a similar time in their rebuild they also had the leagues lowest payroll. It makes it hard to get too irked about something I was already conditioned to expect.

I thinnk we can all agree going to a short term deal only happens *after* Boras determines he can't get an acceptable long term deal with. The goal is to get Correa back on the market as soon as possible to cash in on the $300+m deals that Boras wants. Once you get to that point - the Twins are an obvious choice - they are close. This is a division winner in 2019 and 2020 that had everything go wrong in 2021. They are a team that has enough talent to have a legitimate shot of getting to the postseason with Correa. I saw in the article they were willing to increase payroll to but not be stupid - i.e. willing to spend on 4 years for Story but bowing out when he was getting offers longer than that. These are the kind of moves / offers I think an unrestrained Elias should consider 2023 or 2024 if the young talent has developed and their getting production like the Twins are getting out of their young players. But a one year (most likely) or up to three years commitment in 2022 - I'm not seeing how the Orioles would be attractive enough to Boras/Correa to warrant a call.

This. There are quite a few teams with a payroll $50-100m less that fanbases of losing teams should want their teams to be more like than the Yankees or Mets even if someone like Bezos bought them and gave them an unlimited payroll.

In addition to what SG mentioned all of the behavior that has made the Angelos name synonymous with bad ownership over the years. Vetoing trades, prohibitions on longer contracts for pitchers, approach to medical evaluations, personally inserting themselves into negotiations for players they have an affinity for, etc...

That is indeed the question. I don't think Elias expected or even wants to be spending in 2022. If the plan goes as expected and players develop I 100% believe he will want to increase payroll in 2023 and try to get to around .500 and then in 2024 try to contend. Nothing that has happened to this point is something where I can confidently say ownership is preventing Elias from building the team he wants to build it. I think we'll know one way or the other whether or not ownership is going sabotage Elias in 2023 and considering the track record there has to be concern that they will.

I'm not sure that's the case - do you really think the Astros giving 50ish starts to Bedard and Lucas Harrell (similar age and resume to Lopez) in 2013 is all that different than Lopez and Harvey? The Astros did a much better job giving their young guys more innings. But is that a failure of the Orioles to let guys sink or swim or the type of results one would expect in this era of micro managing workloads a year after almost none (if any) even had 50 innings.

Look how much of the spending to get to that $50m increase of payroll was done in 2015. Something like 30m in new FA spending, another 30m in new spending from trades. They saw what they had in 2014 and started trying to add to it and won 86 games. Looking at the quotes from Elias from last year that indicate 2022 is see what the internal group does - what do they have and then add pieces. Look at that 2015 Astros roster and tell me that isn't what Houston did.

The Astros opening day payroll in 2014 was $44.5. To get tho that number they raised their 2013 payroll to bee closer to the 29th highest payroll in the league from a payroll that was so low in 2013 that I think Alex Rodriguez made significantly more than their entire roster. Even in tank mode it was unstainable to keep it that low. I was looking at their roster a couple of days ago and the big difference I saw between what they did and what the Orioles have done so far is they in 2014 and 2015 they signed a lot of FA pitching and outside of Qualls (2 year) and Feldman (3 year) it was all one year deals. I think it was 5 in 2014 and then in 2015 it was another 5. I do wisht the Orioles had added a few more arms this offseason. A correction - the Astros didn't sign Fowler and it wasn't a multi year commitment. They traded a disappointing prospect Jordan Lyles (their 2011 #1 overall prospect) and Brandon Barnes who was a decent player for them in 2013 for Fowler. I'm not seeing much deviation between the 2014 Astros approach and the 2022 Orioles.

I don't know, it was a really bad team. I have no idea the accuracy of the expected W/L metrics but every one I've seen had the Orioles finishing with a record consistent with where they landed. In comparison, the Diamondbacks were a team that finished with 52 wins that those same metrics that implied that the should have been a 60 win team.

For any long term big contracts - since most of the value is in the first half I want that aligned with the window to contend. Let's assume best case scenario for payroll - Elias is given a $150m payroll and no restrictions. If expected to consistently contend from '24 onwards do any of those guys have reasonable odds to be a net positive for the percentage of payroll they are consuming for the remaning time on their contracts? For me that eliminates everyone except maybe Rodriguez which would be a coin flip. Allocating 10% of the 2024-26 payroll to an age 31-33 Rodriguez has the best chance of working out in the Orioles favor. Correa on a one year commitment in 24 would be great but it's only a 3 year deal if he's a disaster the next two years so I'm skipping that as well. I'd would have much rather brought in several players on one to two year contracts to help in 2022 and 2023.

I would be highly disappointed if this team is still a 52 win team in 2022. For me success is a a 30 game improvement between 2021 and 2023. That would be a massive improvent in that short of time and I think that is realistic if the players develop as we hope and Elias has the resources to add to it. That would have the team as a legitimate contender in 2024 assuming again, Elias then has the freedom to continue adding missing pieces.

This is also what I'm most interested in. The top prospects of course but also extremly interested to wastch the youngish pitchers. IMO the year after their first extended MLB experience will give us a better indication of whether they have a future than at any other time. The know first hand what it's like, what they need to improve on to succeed and an offseason and spring training to make adjustments.

I would have no problem if they brought in additional players as long as they aren't blocking anyone. Sure would make it more entertaining. But the bolded makes no sense - no matter what they did this offseason they aren't contending. Getting two of the best prospects in baseball experience in 2022 is not a wasting them. In the context of either of their careers it makes no difference if they win 60 or 75 games in 2022.

Yep, but with the payroll as low as it is, on short term deals I think it's fine to overpay. I would have rather seen them overpay on others though. In response to another thread yesterday I was looking at Houston when they were in a similar stage of their rebuild that baltimore. They signed 9 FA pitchers over two years that made up a huge chunk of their overall payroll. All but 2 were one year deals the longest being 3 years. With the state of the Orioles pitching staff it's something they probably should have considered. It would not have hurt them going forward.

I'm pretty sure that is still the case almost everywhere - basic cable subscribers who have no interest in sports are forced to subsidize sports programming.

I do like quite a few of those guys better but I think a good chunk were gone before they settled on Lyles. I'd be curious if they were in the hunt for any of them. I especially liked Rodriguez as SG mentioned but he too was already off the table.

Is that true - did teams really adapt to the way things were done? Or are most players drafted in 2020 or earlier across all of baseball a year behind where they otherwise would have been? The increased average age of players at each minor league level from 2019 compared to now implies that is the case, but if you have some other reason to explain it, I'd be curious what your theory is for that age increase. I think players like Adley would have most of a year of MLB experience today if there had been a minor league season in 2020.

Considering one of the stated goals was to add a couple of starters to the pitching staff - what would you have done instead to address that need? I agree Lyles looks like an overpay, just not sure what the alternatives were that could realistically give the team 150 innings and that would only require a one year commitment. He was a 2.0 WAR player as recently as 2019 so there is a non-zero chance he actually earns his salary.

I came across a article from Meoili about Elias and the approach from last August 2021 and agree or disagree it looks like he's sticking to the plan. From the article: Playoff odds are clearly not ticking up at this point - going big in FA in 2022 would not have been consistent with the approach. It is relatively clear - 2022 is a year to play the prospects to see what they have and start adding for 2023. I think it's a well reasoned approach even if many others think its not nearly agressive enough. It also leads me to believe he is not being held back from spending in 2022 but in 2023 and beyond he does expect to be able to increase payroll.

You don't need to lose to sustain a proper farm system. And if you have other assets you can build that way (see how Seattle built a top notch farm system). I'm not someone who thinks every team should tank when their window to compete is closed. With the Orioles it was crystal clear that a full teardown/rebuild was necessary. When Elias arrived - no international presence, no siginifcant trade chips left, and a bad minor league system both operationally and with the lack of talent in the system. If he spends on FA to put a team on the field that isn't embarassing there is no chance the Orioles farm system to where it's at today. Higher picks and the higher draft pools it brings has clearly sped things up.