Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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27 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
Every MLB team has a max of 13 pitchers. So a 4 man bench at minimum. Looks like 3 spots are set. Someone if it’s not Hosmer will be playing that role.
If you like Diaz more that’s fine. All I’m saying is he would play a role here. There is space for him but not space for a ton of at bats.
As long as the current infield mix is here the Orioles do not have a need for a traditional utility infielder. I would not be worried about Hosmer only playing 1B and DH because it does not harm them.
I understand your thoughts. We disagree about any positive value in that role. So be it.
So, who is your bench? McCann, Urias, Stowers and McKenna are pretty solid right now, I think. One last spot, maybe Vavra. Perhaps there is a trade on the horizon. But as it stands, that is how I see it.
- Rutschman
- Mountcastle
- Frazier
- Mateo
- Henderson
- Hays
- Mullins
- Santander
- Stowers
- Urias
- McCann
- McKenna
- ? (Vavra)
If McCann is going to get into 80 games or so, then he’ll have to DH and play a little 1B. I can see a LH hitting DH/1B type instead of Vavra. It all depends on what is going to happen in the next few months, and on what the Orioles actually think of Stowers. If Stowers is a legitimate prospect, he needs to be in the lineup for 400-500 at bats. If he gets 150 sporadic at bats this year, he’ll have a bad year. Bringing in a Hosmer type, would certainly take at bats away from someone. Maybe they spread the at bats around, causing Hays and Mountcastle to get less. Stowers would be affected as well.
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2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
If he wants to keep playing he will have to produce and be a good teammate. Why would a team sign him and keep him if he isn’t playing well and is a jerk?
The Padres traded for Bell. He didn’t play well either. I’m not here to defend Hosmer. His contract was a joke. The role he would play here would be a limited one. Any team he signs with owes him nothing. He isn’t being handed 500 at bats.Why add him in the first place, then? No one is going to be productive in limited at bats. He has had chances to improve, and shown no willingness to do so. That’s the thing. This isn’t a new criticism of him. I guess we’ll just disagree, my friend. I’d rather have them pick up Lewin Diaz again.
Hosmer does make good contact for a big guy, and his exit velos are decent to good. However, he’s an extreme ground ball hitter. He always has been, and he has refused to do so for years. The Orioles do value contact more than in years past, according to Eve Rosenbaum. The Orioles also value defense and flexibility. His defense is limited to 1B, and that is bad these days. To be a DH and occasional 1B, he would need to produce. I just don’t see the net positive impact he would have.
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12 minutes ago, waroriole said:
I think most people don’t trust Hyder to sit the veteran who sucks, like with Odor last year. My concern is he’ll cost Stowers ABs.
Odor would have sat if Vavra could play 2B at an average level. Vavra certainly has a better bat. They tried to do so. They even played Henderson there with no preparation, a terrible idea. And they came back to Odor, who showed he was willing to cut his swing down and hit singles to LCF sometimes.
I keep seeing this criticism of Hyde, and maybe he deserves it. But I just ask to show me who beat out Odor at 2B in 2022? I thought maybe Urias would be there with Henderson at 3B, but Urias did not hit well either at the end of the season.
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4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
Why would you compare someone who signed the biggest deal in franchise history to someone who would be a backup making the minimum?
If Hosmer displays any of the traits you describe he is released and they move on. This is a bench/depth move if it happens. Nothing more.
Chris Davis was a part time player at the end too. They were both once productive. They both signed big deals and became very different players. Chris Davis had at least one big run-in with Brandon Hyde.
As a veteran player, with a ring, he will have some impact here if he signs. He is probably not a complete tool. I pointed out some things, but there is a case to say he could come here and contribute in a role you mentioned. That would require some changes in how coachable he has been. He would have to work hard on conditioning and his defense. Otherwise, I do not see him having any positive value, just like Chris Davis.
The Padres could not wait to get rid of him. They became a better team when he left. The Red Sox released him when no other team wanted anything to do with him. I don’t see anything to indicate he’s ready to change.
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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:
I think there's a difference between asking for some kind of proof that he's a jerk and a bad teammate and trying to talk one's self into him being a good signing. I don't want him. I just wondered where the other stuff was coming from.
I wasn’t talking about you, RZ. I know where you stand.
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Just now, Moose Milligan said:
I'll disagree that defense is all about effort. He's not on the upside of his career anymore as he's 33 years old. You can still be a good defender at age 33 but I'm assuming his age is playing a part in his decline.
He also has a very punchable face.
It is about effort when you don’t dig balls out of the dirt. He’s 33, not 53. His preparation and work ethic have come into question a lot in recent years. I watched some videos on him a few days ago, and just some dreadful misplays. Bad foot work, lazy positioning.
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I see many posters are building a case and talking themselves into signing the worst offensive 1B in the league the past 4-5 years. And he has become a shadow of his former self, defensively. Chris Davis says, “Hello.”
Hosmer and Hyde are going to get along great.
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26 minutes ago, owknows said:
It says he dresses nicely but conservatively, pals around with guys in the dugout and clubhouse, and smiles a lot. Even when he's slumping and the fans are hating on him.
That monster!
The media today doesn’t write many articles where they call a player out. You have to read between the lines. See my reply to RZNJ.
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29 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
I read it, kind of fast. Did I miss something? I don't think it says one thing about Hosmer being a jerk or bad teammate.
No, it doesn’t say things in a negative spin. You kind of have to read between the lines a bit. I could not find an article better than this, unfortunately.
It talks about being resistant to swing change to remedy his extreme ground ball tendencies. Underperforming on a big contract and always seeming like he doesn’t care if he struggles. It also talks about his veteran leadership.
The Padres traded him and played better baseball. The defense has become awful, and to me, that is all about effort.
I have been told things privately about him. Opinions of people in and around the game that indicate he does not care about winning, is not a worker. A huge ego who cares about getting paid. Take it for what that’s worth. I have zero first hand knowledge on him.
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31 minutes ago, emmett16 said:
Everyone seems to “have heard” Hosmer is a jerk. Does anyone have anything concrete, link, something or is it all just a “gut” feeling.? I’ve met him before and he was incredible nice and went out of his way be nice to my son. Just curious on what other experiences folks have had that has given him such a bad name. I’ve heard rumblings as well and by no means am I trying to stick up for him, but what is driving your decisions on his character? I’d be curious to hear those stories.
This hits on a few things.
https://browntown.substack.com/p/eric-hosmer-fashion-and-fixing-a
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This is the absolute strangest thing the Orioles have done in my lifetime. This is a guy with ties to those who have run the country into the ground over the past 20 years. So, let’s make him a senior VP of the Orioles. He can discredit and eliminate the evil Orioles fans critical of the team.
I am just going to put this out there. If I write critical things about the Orioles in the future, I did not hang myself.
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Hosmer just makes little sense to me. The profile makes some sense, not the guy. Maybe Hyde will be able to get him to actually hold himself accountable and prepare himself to play each day. Yes, I am trying to find something positive, sigh! lol
If you have 13 position players:
- Rutschman
- Mountcastle
- Frazier
- Mateo
- Henderson
- Hays
- Mullins
- Santander
- McCann
- McKenna
- Urias
- Stowers
- maybe Vavra?
I suppose Vavra could go down, but how would a Hosmer signing not impact Stowers significantly?
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29 minutes ago, NCRaven said:
Don’t really think Frazier blocks anyone at 2B. If Westburg, for example, forces the issue, Frazier can be moved into a utility role. We’ll see.
Still hoping we trade for another starting pitcher.
I think this is a very reasonable take. If Westburg, or whichever infield prospect, emerges as better than Frazier, they should push Frazier to a UT role. Competition brings the best out of all players, young and older. Whether or not they move Frazier at the deadline might be predicated on this exact thing. If they can rebuild Frazier’s value, have their prospects push him aside to be dealt at the deadline, that makes this a very good signing. Several “ifs” though. We’ll see. They gambled $8 million.
I also hope they trade for a starting pitcher, an upgrade, a needle-mover.
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35 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Davis was just DFA’d by the Braves. Any chance we claim him, after just trading him for cash?
Who would they DFA to make room? Maybe they trade another off the 40 man. I mean the whole thing was to try to pass him through waivers at some point since he’s out of options. There is no role for him on the major league team at the moment. I don’t see it, but who knows this off season. More moves to befuddle the masses, I guess. lol
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4 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:
My point was that guys with "one plus pitch" don't pitch seasons of ace level performance with the underlying numbers backing it up. Maybe the injuries messed with his stuff last year and he only had one plus pitch in 2022 and that's why he struggled, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't have more than one plus pitch when healthy.
And yeah, Burnes has the better track record by far. The tradeoff is you only get him for two years instead of four. Rogers has shown he is capable of pitching at a near Burnes level, but of course there's some risk
I understand. The grades I saw on Fangraphs on his breaking ball (slider) was a 45. The change up 60 and fastball was a 55. MLB pipeline had the same, and he was #7 for the Marlins in 2020. The fastball was 90-93, t96. Repeats well, control is around a 55.
He must have some deception as the ball seems to get on batters quickly. The fastball is now up to 94.6 according to baseball savant. The 74% extension and 90% spin are very good. His expected 13% OBA, 20% SLG and 16% BA are awful. Everything else is around average. The slider did have a 34% whiff rate. Must have command issues with it. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/trevor-rogers-669432?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
The upside is very good. I do not disagree with you. Maybe there is a deal there, but I have no idea why they would want to move him. Maybe your deal is feasible if they believe they can improve him significantly. They would have to add a minor league prospect for me. For the Marlins, maybe they would move him for a Mateo or a Mullins. Is Hays enough with the two prospects? IDK. 2021 was a strange year for MLB players and some stats are a little out of whack to me. 2022 was a down year for offense. If the Orioles look at him closely and want him, maybe they would offer such a package. Maybe more. I don’t see it on stats alone, but I do see some upside there.
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3 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:
So how did that guy pitch to a 2.64 ERA/2.52 FIP two years ago in 25 starts?
He did have one good season, 2021. The year after COVID. The league adjusted, he needs to adjust now.
I find him interesting, sure. You cited Corbin Burnes, a guy who has 3-4 good to excellent years and a CY Young. The longevity is what makes the packages very different for me.
As I said, I find him interesting. A guy we can improve upon, potentially, and have a much better result. Fly ball pitcher with a deep/tall LF wall would help.
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I do have an interest in Trevor Rogers, but he doesn’t have a good breaking ball, the fastball is a little above average. So, we want to give up what exactly for a guy with one plus pitch, which is a change up?
He pitched 107 innings and had a 5.47 ERA and 4.36 FIP with 8.92 K/9 and 3.79 BB/9 in 2022, a down offensive year. In 2021, he pitched 133 innings and had a 2.64 ERA and 2.55 FIP with 10.62 K/9 and 3.11 BB/9. His HR/9 went from .41 in 2021 to 1.26 in 2022. SG has a point, we do seem to over-value the Marlins’ starters.
Maybe we like the rawness of him. If they feel like they could teach him a better slider, then great. He had a lat strain at the end of 2022. I am not sure if he had other issues last year. He seems like a guy with good potential, and a more moderate package would be doable. I would wonder why they would trade him.
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3 hours ago, wildcard said:
Tony calls Ortiz arm solid average.
That sounds about right. I have not seen enough to say either way. I have not seen a canon, but he does have a quick release.
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2 hours ago, wildcard said:
Range is mostly about foot speed IMO. Many plays at SS do not require foot speed. They require quickness. But many plays do benefit from foot speed. The ball to the outfield, the ball up the middle, the ball deep in the hole all can require foot speed for a SS to reach them.
Lateral quickness, agility and length help with range too. Arm strength is huge, allows more depth. What JJ did as well as anyone is master the one hand pick up. He had very soft and quick hands.
Mateo throws very well on the move and from a variety of arm slots and angles. Mateo is remarkably accurate from all of those angles too. I wish he’d plant the right foot in the hole instead of the jump throw. He does not do that well.
I think Mateo, Ortiz, Henderson and Westburg is the best order. Henderson could play there for a while and become a super star, though. Mateo might just take some steps to improve this year as well. 2022 was the first year he got everyday at bats. We’ll see if he learns better swing decisions.
It is a good problem to have. I am curious if we can trade Mateo, what it would look like to have Westburg at 3B, Henderson at SS and Ortiz at 2B. What about Norby’s bat, and is he good enough at 2B?
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25 minutes ago, Frobby said:
This is all the Constitution says about criminal prosecutions:
“In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defense.”
The presumption of innocence goes back hundreds of years before the United States came into existence and is an assumed legal principle.
Ok. It was an off the cuff remark, initially. The Constitution and Bill of Rights surround that concept in the 5th, 6th and 14th amendments, no? I corrected it by saying was a foundational presumption. @Aristotelian was not wrong.
As long as the burden of proof is that of the state, he is innocent until proven guilty. It does go back to English common law, as is the basis for our system. I hope this post eliminated any doubts as to my acknowledgement of sitting corrected. Thank you, and Merry Christmas.
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37 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
Actually the text of the Constitution does not say that. It is considered inferred.
It is “presumed,” not inferred. The state has the burden of proof. If not proven beyond a reasonable doubt, the defendant must be acquitted. It is a fundamental principal of US law, and a defining principal of how trails are conducted. The 5th, 6th and 14th amendments all deal with this foundational part of American law.
Now, a non-existent “right to privacy” is inferred in several amendments. In the Lawrence case I cited earlier, it is a question of right to privacy, among other things.
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15 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
I think this is the big point. Was it just a sex act “gone bad?” Also, what “normal” people might consider “weird” acts, well those acts are a lot more mainstream now. We’re not talking ice cubes here.
He’s hasn’t been charged, but does that mean he’s “innoncent?” It just means the DA thought they didn’t have enough to convict or even justify taking to trial. This has just been bizzarre since the story broke.
The US Constitution says yes, innocent until proven guilty. Due process, 5th amendment and such.
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6 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:
FYI, Krehbiel was a replacement level reliever last year. He did start strong and collapse, so there's upside, but I'm not going to cry if we end up cutting him
The whole body of work is important, but I think he’s pretty good when he’s healthy. Might have been a little over-used at the end. I like the different look that he is compared to the others, but he is replaceable.
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4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Cano, Vallimont, and Politi, are all three RH relievers that I’d give up wayyy before thinking about Khreibel.
I actually like Krehbiel too. I think the team is intrigued by Cano and Vallimont and their ability to harness the raw stuff. Zimmermann is out of options, I believe, so that’s a concern as well.
Pondering Holt's plans for Vallimont
in Orioles Talk
Posted
The fact that he is still here means to me they like him and believe he may just need more time. I found this pre 2022 write up by Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs interesting. They ranked Vallimont as the #27 in the Twins organization then.
Vallimont started the season a couple of weeks late with a game at Low-A Fort Myers, a rehab start that came after missing time with back spasms. In that start, he posted a CSW rate of 41%, missing bats with all four of his offerings and issuing six strikeouts in his three innings of work without allowing a free pass. But that would be the only outing of his season in which he didn’t allow a walk. After that game, he was skipped up to Double-A, where his 21 starts were far from flawless; his ERA and BB/9 were both 6.03. On the bright side, he struck out almost a third of the Double-A batters he faced, and his fastball velocity was in the 91-96 mph range, way up from the 89-92 he showed in 2019. He’s further shortened his arm action, and those alterations may have hurt his feel for release and could be to blame for some of the location variability. The Twins protected Vallimont from the Rule 5. Right now, he is trending toward a relief role, with a backend starter ceiling.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minnesota-twins-top-39-prospects-2022/
(Also, an interesting write up on Povich in that article as well.)
I was not aware that Vallimont shortened his arm angle, so it does seem to give some background for the patience being shown. I am curious if he stuck with it, or went back to the longer movement. He has two options left, according to Roster Resource. He was also a Top 100 player according to ZIPS in their pre 2021 list, #83.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-top-100-prospects/
A small school guy with a ton of life on his fastball, the COVID layoff did not help his development. A consistent release point is supposed to be the issue. I know the AAA numbers were bad, but he has time. I don’t think he is very close to being DFA. If he had a poor work ethic, they would have DFA’d him already. He needs innings and reps, so he should keep starting for the immediate future in AAA. I wonder how the organization compares him to Baumann, internally.