Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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On 11/16/2022 at 10:50 AM, Just Regular said:
Just saw this. Bet part of return is bringing Jesse Winker home to Buffalo-Toronto metro area where he can watch pitches like Craig Biggio and help them with L/R balance.
Kind of a fun challenge trade to the extent Julio and Vlad's teams got a little rowdy with each other last month.
I believe Jesse Winker grew up in Orlando, Florida. I know he went to high school here anyway. Olympia HS, I believe.
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13 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
I noted Aquino as well. I wonder if we will ever see anything like that hot-cold streak ever again.
How about P Foster Griffin from the Jays? Had a 2.10 ERA in AAA with 57 K to 15 BB in 51 IP. Could be another Bryan Baker and always extra nice to steal from the Jays. Could he be better than Krehbiel or Gillaspie?
Am I correct that we no longer have top waiver position? Going to be much tougher for any nuggets to fall to us.
I know the Griffin kid fairly well. Former 1st round pick of KC, HS teammate of Adam Haseley. Has had a lot of trouble staying healthy. Really good kid, 27 yoa. The word is he is heading overseas, maybe Japan. The stuff is not much to talk about anyway.
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12 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
Deadline to add players to the 40 Man Roster for protection from the Rule 5 draft is tomorrow, 6:00 pm. Hope it's OK to post in the Orioles board since the protected players will be on the 40 Man and are almost certain to see at least some time in the Majors. With all the free agents now declared the 40 Man is starting to come into view.
The 40 Man Roster as it currently stands has six open spots: https://www.mlb.com/orioles/roster/40-man
Some players who could be DFA to make additional room: P Gillaspie, P Vallimont, OF Cameron, IF Tyler Nevin, C Kolozvary, P Krehbiel. That would be 7 additional spots, or potentially as many as 13.
MLB Top 30 players almost certain to be protected: https://www.mlb.com/news/rule-5-draft-prospects-protected-on-40-man-rosters
Grayson Rodriguez #4
Seth Johnson #10
Joey Ortiz #17
Drew Rom #19
Additional Rule 5 eligible prospects:
Noah Denoyer - Had a great year primarily at AA. Wasn't great in the AFL but made the Fall Stars team. Appears ready to start in AAA and pitch in MLB if he progresses. Great resume, we have room. Protect.
Maverick Handley - Excellent reputation for defense, has some pop in the bat through AA. Don't want to risk losing him. Protect.
Shayne Fontana. Progressed from A+ to AAA in '22, highlighted by .898 OPS at Bowie. Had some injuries and didn't hit in a very small sample at Norfolk (played CF though). Could he be more valuable to keep around than Daz Cameron? Bubble.
Ignacio Feliz - Could be another Felix Bautista clone (13 K/9) but 5+ BB/9 and hasn't hit AA yet. I think someone said he may be a minor league FA, so might be N/A. Bubble.
Kyle Brnovich. 11.1 K/9 vs 2.1 BB/9 in AA in '21. Had TJ in May '22. Could be an interesting Tyler Wells type. Bubble.
Easton Lucas. 4.76 ERA at Bowie but 10.3 K/9. Sent to AFL, perhaps for a last look and pitched decently with 11.5 K/9. Bubble.
Zach Peek - Advanced to AA. Decent ERA but K/9 dropped and then got shut down for TJ surgery. Some Tyler Wells risk. Don't Protect.
Cameron Bishop - Advanced to AA in 2021. Pitched 17 innings in AA and cup of AAA coffee last year before shut down in June (anyone know the nature of the injury?). Could be solid but probably not better than anyone in our current bullpen. I could maybe see keeping him over Gillaspie but it's close. Don't Protect.
Connor Gillispie - Repeated A+. Decent peripherals but nothing dominant. Again, close call vs Gillaspie. Hopefully there will be only one Gillaspie/Gillispie left standing if only to reduce confusion. Don't Protect.
Robert Neustrom. Going into '22 some thought he had a good chance to make the O's after advancing to AAA and putting up combined 16 HR in '21. He hit 15 HR but only .231/.704 in '22. Some team may want to take a chance on his power but doesn't seem to fit with the O's. Don't Protect.
Adam Hall and Cadyn Grenier. These guys were decent prospects at one time. Could perhaps be selected as utility guys but don't have a future with the Orioles with so many infielders ahead of them. Don't Protect.
Garrett Stallings. Repeated AA. Mostly solid except for an absolutely disastrous stretch in June. Could have been tipping pitches or needed to figure something out. Still, a longshot to be selected. Don't Protect.
I'm guessing we keep Denoyer and Handley. That would max out our six open spots.
Of the remaining guys, Feliz and Fontana may have the most upside. I'd be inclined to keep them and lose Cameron and a pitcher (although I'm not sure Feliz is eligible). We have a bunch of reliever types who you'd like to keep but could also be replaced by guys on the waiver wire. Any other predictions?
Great post! It appears we all agree with the four top protected players. After that, I have Denoyer as a probable. The next group on the bubble for me is Lucas, Handley and Brnovich. They could keep just the top four, and I can understand it. Handley has never been in AAA, and catchers are not a good bet in rule 5, historically. Denoyer and Lucas still have a lot to prove and I don’t know what their metrics are. Brnovich with the TJ, who knows if a team likes the nasty CB enough to take him.
I hope they protect the top four, along with Handley and Denoyer, but I have a feeling they will only protect the top four.
They could DFA a few like Mark Kolozvary, Logan Gillaspie, Bruce Zimmermann, Tyler Nevin and Jake Cave (split contract). I am beginning to think Vallimont, Cameron and Krehbiel stick for now, the more I think about it. I think they like Vallimont and want more time with him. They could have easily DFA’d him earlier if they were going to. I have seen several comments recently that Vallimont was a shrewd move and they like him a lot. Cameron could be DFA, but I think they like what he brings, for now anyway. Krehbiel was so good for five months, and it just looked like he ran out of gas. He is expendable, sure, but there is something about his funky delivery and stuff that compliments the pen well.
Elias might set the roster at 38 so he can add a R5 or two, or maybe a waiver claim.
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26 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Pretty sure Santander reported that he lost weight between 2021 and 2022, and stressed conditioning that would improve flexibility and reduce risk of injury.
I recal the same comments from him. I think that was early in 2022. From various comments about him from teammates and Hyde, they talked about how he bulked up this year. I remember Hays even commented how Santander was always eating to keep his weight and muscle up. He may have decreased his body fat%, and he may have even lost a little weight. He was noticeably bigger, more muscular, to me. He ran more like a body builder, and he reminded me of watching Canseco play the OF 30 years ago. Not in a good way, lol.
In 2021, it must have been difficult to get his running in each day. He did look thicker in his mid-section last year. His statcast speed has gone down from 27.5 ft/sec in 2019 to 26.1 in 2021 to 26.4 in 2022.
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Santander was a very good corner OF in 2020, with a 1 OAA in 2020. That was 33rd in MLB. The ankle injuries in 2021 may have lingering effects, but he also bulked up significantly in 2022 and that seemed to sap his previously average range and quickness. He now looks much less fluid or athletic when he moves. He is more of a lumbering guy now, though he was never more than average. The arm is still a tick above average in strength and accuracy to me. He gets below average jumps, and that is a little concerning.
I don’t think he hurts us much in RF, especially as long as Cedric Mullins patrols CF. Maybe he can regain some of his previous range with focused conditioning and stretching. The Orioles have better defenders, but it is perplexing that he struggles as a DH. You have to keep that bat in the lineup as much as possible.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/anthony-santander-623993?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
Never saw that velocity. He was 91-93, when I watched him with very mediocre offspeed pitches. If he was mid to high 90s I'm pretty sure the Orioles would have added him to the 40-man.
What we saw on Twitter was at a workout post-TJ. I don’t think it was Driveline or Tread, but another similar facility. It wasn’t even “pull-downs,” it was off a mound. I believe it was several pitches 96-97, IIRC. Someone posted it here too.
Edit: Come to think of it, that video may have been before the TJ. Either way, good luck to him.
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17 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I have residual fondness for Hanifee, Wells and Stewart, and I kind of rue the fact that Diaz never panned out for us. I followed all those guys for many years. Good luck to everyone on the list, but I’ll probably pay more attention to where those four land. Who knows, maybe one or two will end up back with the O’s organization after looking around elsewhere.
I feel like these departures are sort of the last gasp of the Duquette era. Obviously we still have some good Duquette-era prospects around, like Rodriguez and Hall. But the ones who were more questionable are pretty much gone.
Yeah, I agree. Hanifee was limited this year after TJ surgery. It seemed, if we are to believe Twitter, that he was coming back very strong with mid to high 90’s FB.
He was on a good trajectory with his sinker/slider mix until 2019. I was curious if his stall was from coaching trying to change him to a 4S up in the zone guy. Good luck to all of them, wherever they land.
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30 minutes ago, Frobby said:
So who would you be willing to trade for one year of Hoskins? Let’s say they want Kjerstad and Jean Pinto. You buying?
Kjerstad seems steep for a one year rental. Maybe counter with Haskins and Pinto, unless they want to pay a good chunk of Hoskins’ salary.
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1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:
Free agency it is for Diaz, among others.
The only one in that list I will miss is Hanifee.
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Hoskins has shown 60 power, sure. That’ll take a significant hit in the 81 games at Mount Waltimore. Positionally, it’s just bad. So, we’d be trading for a DH and occasional below average 1B. A .330 OBP/.450 SLG, 24% K rate with 11.8% BB rate and a 118 wRC+ are numbers that have gone slightly poorer each year for him. He would not be my first choice for a middle of the order bat with Santander and Mountcastle here as similar hitters.
I am skeptical about taking a 30 year old guy and having our coaches do very much with him in swing decisions. A younger guy, sure. But a 5-6 year major leaguer at 30 years old. Old dogs, new tricks kind of thing. Maybe it works, I’m just skeptical.
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I figured this was coming soon. He was dead weight at this point on the 40. They always talk about his tools, but at some point the lacking preparation matters. I was a little optimistic last Spring. The coaches talked about his off season conditioning and he seemed ready for a breakout. It was the first time I had read or heard of good prep on his part. Mostly, I heard about pouting and ambivalence about being in the minors with a lack of drive.
Maybe he clicks somewhere else, so what. Time to move on I think.
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He’s a bit of a long shot at this point, but he’s an athlete. If he stays healthy, I like him as a super UT type. Not much power, but every other tool is average or better. We played against him several times over the years, he’s a talented gamer. He’s got a little Austin Hays in him.
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2 hours ago, Camden Yards said:
Folks worry about Rodon’s injury history but give a pass to DeGrom who is a bigger injury risk. Rodon has started 55 games the past two years vs DeGrom’s 26 starts. I am going with Rodon. Probably can get Rodon and a good hitter (Maybe Rizzo) for the cost of DeGrom. Or get Rodon and Clevinger.
What contracts will DeGrom, Rodon, Clevinger, and Rizzo get?We want to win a World Series- Lyles is good for a rebuilding team. That was great for the past. Don’t waste money on
Rodon, Kremer, GROD, Bradish, and a battle for the 5th spot.
Wells, Voth, and Hall battle for a starting job but can be pushed to the pen. Would give us lots of depth if we add two SPs. Who knows what Kremer and Bradish will do next year.
Bullpen- Bautista, Tate, Perez, Baker, Wells, Hall, Voth, Akin, Baumann, etc.Add Rodon, Clevinger (or trade for SP), Rizzo, and backup catcher. That gives us a great shot to fight for the division.
Good post. With Rodon, the last two years were FA years. The previous four are what concern me. Maybe he is the guy he has appeared to be the past two years. They would have to be certain of that. I did not realize that Degrom had injuries in 2021 also. It would all depend on the size and length of the contract, and the medicals.
I like your plan, and it’s not my money, but that would be great. I don’t think Rodon will come much cheaper than Degrom, if at all. I like Clevinger and Rizzo.
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30 minutes ago, Frobby said:
It’s just a dollar translation of fWAR. Each year they calculate how many fWAR the FA class was worth the year before, and the total amount paid per year to that class, to derive a $/WAR ratio. After many years of increase, it’s settled in at about $8 mm/WAR over the last 6-7 years or so. So, 1.4 fWAR translates to about $11.5 mm.
Thank you for the explanation. Interesting.
His option is for $11 million for 2023. That would seem reasonable, maybe a little high. Do we go with Lyles, knowing what we should get from him? Or go with another one year option that is more of an unknown? I can see going with him as a 4-5 starter. I would like to see Degrom or Verlander, while I worry Rodon is the kind of potential bust with injuries you wrote about.
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This discussion led me to look at Lyles Fangraphs numbers. The one thing that struck me as interesting was that they valued his 2022 performance at $11.5 million. I am not well-versed on these kinds of numbers. Perhaps @Frobby or someone else can shed some light on the valuation by FanGraphs?
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On 10/28/2022 at 12:46 PM, wildcard said:
Only watch this if you want to smile.
Thanks for sharing this. He was incredibly fun to watch in 2022.
This video reminded me that: Jorge is very very good, Mountcastle has improved a great deal at 1B, and Kudzu cannot cover as much ground as Mateo.
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Congratulations, Jorge!
The article from Roch listed the panel that awarded the FB awards.
“A panel of 15 baseball “experts” handled the voting, ranking the top 10 players at each defensive position, including a spot for multi-position players, on a scale from one to 10. A first-place vote counted as 10 points, second-place as nine, third as eight, etc.
None of the 2021 winners repeated this year.
The voting panel consisted of SIS chairman John Dewan and baseball stat pioneer Bill James, along with Emma Baccellieri (Sports Illustrated), Dan Casey (SIS), Chris Dial (sabermetrician), Alyson Footer (MLB.com), Peter Gammons (The Athletic), Moses Massena (MLB Network), Eduardo Pérez (ESPN), Hal Richman (Strat-O-Matic), Travis Sawchik (The Score), Bobby Scales (SIS), Joe Sheehan (longtime writer), Mark Simon (SIS), and the SIS Video Scout staff.”
https://www.masnsports.com/blog/mateo-gets-glove-love-with-fielding-bible-award
A few interesting names there.
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Aramis Garcia and Chris Ellis were outrighted today after clearing waivers.
https://www.masnsports.com/blog/orioles-outright-ellis-and-garcia
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Very deserving, congratulations to Hyder! Managing a team of young still-developing players, and so many waiver claims, to a 31 game improvement is impressive. For me, it isn’t as much about the wins as it is about the improvement of players and overall team competitive performance. He managed an interesting clubhouse and seemed to have maintained the respect of his players throughout.
They played a ton of close games this year, 23-24 in one run games, which is not an extraordinary number. I could not readily find a stat to define it, but it seemed as though they were nearly always in the game. They were 8-5 in extra innings, and had a run differential of -14. They were 20th in MLB with a .695 OPS. They were 21st at home with a .690 OPS, better than I expected with the wall change. The pitching was 17th in MLB with a 3.97 ERA, and 15th in home ERA at 3.73. It surprised me, somewhat, that these stats were not much different home vs. away.
The pen was a huge bright spot, and over-used at times, and a lot of improvement from several of the young starters. Marked improvement from Mateo, Urias, Santander and Jorge Lopez. Somewhat disappointing offensive performances in the second half from Mountcastle and Hays. A rookie catcher, even if it is Adley, has a lot of growing to do. He empowered a couple of vets in Chirinos, Odor and Lyles, and previously Mancini, to mold the clubhouse. All of whom knew they were likely not long term pieces here. I believe Cedric began to take on more leadership as the season went on as well.
We can point to some flawed lineups, and some questionable game decisions, sure. I think we could do that for any manager. This was well-deserved. Especially for a man who has endured some really awful teams over the past few years.
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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I don’t believe they would have made the trade if they weren’t going to protect him.
I agree, and those were my thoughts until a few days ago after reflection on the timeline. You are probably correct. Losing him in R5 would create a meltdown here for sure.
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Top 30:
Jud Fabian CF
Carter Baumler RHP
Not currently in the top 30:
Isaac Deleon 3B
Trace Bright RHP
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1 minute ago, ShoelesJoe said:
Means had TJS in April, and he started throwing last week. If Johnson is on a similar schedule he'll be tossing in February or March. If things go well I can see him getting into minor league games by July or August at the latest. There's a lot of ifs and depends, but with a little luck Johnson should get in about two months of actual mound time in 2023.
My thoughts as well. Those two months will be very controlled and limited. He might have to be a reliever going forward, at least for a little while.
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1 hour ago, CharmCityHokie said:
And there in lies the quandary with trading for Johnson. He's got to go on the 40-man this offseason or be exposed to the Rule 5, he won't be back until 2024, when he'll be 26 years old, and he has a total of 27 innings at A+ which is the highest level he's competed at. The Orioles will have to decide to either put him on the 60-day IL to clear a spot on the active 40, but also pay him MLB money, OR they can option him for next season, and then again in the '24 season when he can actually start pitching again and then will hold a final option on him for his age-27 season which is when we can reasonably expect he may be ready for the majors. The second choice of optioning him however will be a black hole on the 40-man roster. It's a complicated risk for sure.
I am starting to wonder if he needs to be protected this Winter. If a team takes him, will they be willing to keep him on Rule 5 for a year and a half to two years?
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3 hours ago, RZNJ said:
I haven’t really thought of a comp for Stowers. I just think that strength is not something he lacks. If he cuts his strikeouts to about 25% I think he’s probably going to be successful. His damage per contract has always been very good and it was trending up in ML the last month. I also think his defense in RF will be better than expected. He was a little tentative, especially in LF where he had little experience.
Of course, barrel percentage is important and I’m concerned with him on almost anything inside, particularly the down and in breaking pitch.
Agree on many things. If he can cut down on the level of effort in his swing, just a few %, he can make more contact. Getting stronger can help with that. Same damage with less effort. I do like his plate discipline.
Some decent players DFA’d. (Update: O's claim Lewin Diaz-1B)
in Orioles Talk
Posted · Edited by Jammer7
A lot of talented kids here in the Orlando area. I have coached some, against some and watched many more closely. The travel ball is deep and they play the best from all over in the summer. It’s a great culture here. Baseball is a lifestyle here. One more son to guide through it, though I hope my coaching days are over, honestly.
BTW BT, I watched the Jacksonville vs. UCF fall game a while back. Watch out for Kris Armstrong, the former UF OF. He is primed for a breakout with Jacksonville. He’s 22, maybe 23 now, but I liked what I saw in his approach and set up. One of his coaches told me he is raking with 6 bombs in about 50 Fall at bats. The UF guys told me they kept waiting for him to break out, but never did. About 6-03 220, the move to 3B was a curious move, but he looks great. 94 mph across the diamond. A very good athlete. Son of Jack Armstrong, the former MLB pitcher. A dark horse long shot, but he might just finally fulfill the prospect status the scouts had for him since he was about 14.