Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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5 hours ago, Frobby said:
Goes to show you what a crapshoot these big international signings can be.
Sure. Orioles fans aren’t used to big dollar international signees. And Elias’ track record now makes us surprised when they don’t work out. I guess we’re getting spoiled. lol
In all seriousness, I get it that even the bigger hyped signees don’t usually work out. There is still time, hopefully. We know so little about the international guys until they come to the states.
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It is good to see Luis DeLeon re-emerge in the top 50 discussion. Even if it’s all projection, it is encouraging to know that Tony’s contacts believe in him in the same breath as Rangel.
Equally disappointing to not see Maikol Hernandez in the top 50. I have read many of your previous comments on him, so not a shock. It’s disappointing when the team spends over a million on a kid who is not excelling yet. There is still time and all, and hopefully he is working hard on his game.
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Great stuff, Tony! Really well done. Would you pin this one in the minors forum?
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32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
While some people will slam you, until he does something else, that is his current history for attempting to add to a marginal playoff team.
He also was pigheaded and forced Aguilar into the lineup over Stowers when it went against everything he's always stood for when it came to the future.
The first part is certainly an understandable take. The second part has me curious, and maybe you have answered this elsewhere. But how do you know that? Did this come from a “source?” Or is it just your speculation? I would never want to “out” a source, and I know you would not do that. But that’s quite a statement.
I mean, it could be something Elias and Hyde agreed on. Maybe Hyde pushed for a veteran guy they thought might drive in some runs with a few adjustments. The offense was anemic and Mountcastle and Hays effectively stopped hitting since July. I wanted Stowers to play too, but perhaps they felt they needed match ups for him, or had him working certain things. To throw a rookie into a playoff run isn’t always advantageous.
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37 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:
I have made a similar argument for Turner, if you look back on my previous posts. So I really can't disagree with you. I also enjoy your perspective and read your posts with great interest. Frequently learning something new and innovative.
To do what you have outlined above would require a level of sequencing that is extremely hard to do. First you have to orchestrate the trade with Milwaukee. Then you have to sign Turner, then you have to orchestrate a trade with Miami. If any of those parts fails to go down you are a bit stuck. We can do it easily on this message board. It's another story to do it in a multi billion dollar industry. Cool idea, though.
I am very interested in how the 2023 infield shakes out. Might be a bit of a work in progress. There is real risk that this team regresses in 2023. As SG likes to point out, taking a lot of risks and having a lot of ?s can lead to a lot of disappointment.
Thanks for the kind words. I enjoy your posts as well.
I agree, it’s an intricate undertaking. You’d have to have the framework of some deals in place to make it all work. You’d sign Turner, and then go forward with other things. The worst scenario would be Turner getting hurt, but with his track record, he’s a smart bet. Having him in pocket opens the door to the others, in my opinion. The infield depth becomes expendable at that point.
Maybe some of your minor league players open in AAA, not ideal, but not a bad thing. For a while anyway. You make the deals that make sense, and they do fall apart far more than we know. I would love to get Burnes, but they apparently came out and said they’re holding onto him, for now. Maybe at the deadline. Makes little sense as teams generally get more in the Winter deals, but that’s the Brewers.
Elias and crew are very capable front office people. They can prove it over the next few years. All GM’s think they’re the smartest people in any room, absolutely. It isn’t that they have to win trades. Both teams can win from them and it isn’t a bad thing. We would be re-allocating resources to places of need. The thing that bothers me about a deal like Lopez for Mullins is how long Lopez is under team control and will they get him to extend. I believe he has two remaining arb years. Mullins for him straight up would be great, but I doubt they do that. What else do you need to give up? If they want Bradish, for instance, fine. What are they sending back to balance that out some?
There is a hundred scenarios they could have unfold. It’s a lot of fun for us to speculate, but I have generally stayed out of these conversations on here because they are too time consuming for me. Fit and opportunity is what we don’t really know the whole story on. Pro scouting and probing other org coaching connections becomes vital. They do not need to bring in some talented guy, but he’s a turd in the clubhouse.
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3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:
As much as I love me some Trea Turner, why in the world would the O's be interested in any of the 4 FA SS? Their farm system is full of impact middle infielders including a recent 1/1 draft pick. I think all of us should be relieved that they looking elsewhere.
deGrom is off the market at a remarkable (some would say stupid) price. Verlander is almost certainly going to NY to one team or another. Rodon will be expensive and therefore risky. But he's good, he's left handed and he doesn't cost prospects. I say the kick the tires but aren't likely to pay the price. So I'm not holding my breath for a ToR FA starter.
I hope the recent statement by the Brewers that they are not trading Burnes is just pre-trade postering. He's the only realistic ToR starter I see the O's obtaining. It will require a ton of prospects but It makes the most sense, IMHO. The winter meeting are the time when these types of trades are structured. Im hoping for the best.
I agree. The Orioles do not spend that kind of money, not yet anyway. And there is abundant talent at the doorstep. Might be different if they had a little more certainty in the rotation already and were missing a piece.
Though, I will play devil’s advocate for a moment with the FA SS scenario. Let’s say they sign Trey Turner for a big deal and he is willing to play 2B. He is our lead off hitter for the time he is here, one of the best lead off guys in the league. That is a big cornerstone to me. You could package some of the young infield depth for a trade for a TOR like Burnes. You could send Mullins out in a trade as well, since you have replaced his expected offense with someone better at the top of the lineup. A big talent like that can have multiple impacts beyond what defensive position they play. No guarantee that a prospect, even a Westburg or Ortiz is going to be the guy we think they will. Turner is that guy already. So, depends on what you are trying to achieve and when.
The biggest dynamic I am wondering is how they handle the infield In 2023 and beyond. Is Mateo their guy? Is he a placeholder until Joey Ortiz comes up? Does Gunnar take SS? What to do with Westburg? Urias? Norby? Is Mountcastle their long term 1B? He doesn’t seem to fit their philosophy, and I don’t believe he is, honestly. The Orioles’ philosophy has revealed itself now with regard to hitters. Mountcastle and Hays look to be square pegs in round holes. And really Mateo as well, but the defense trumps a lot of things. We’ll see.
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35 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
This is clearly an upgrade over Lyles. Not the TOR we need, but a solid above-average inning-eater.
Compared to Lyles, Gibson has better movement on his sinker, much higher chase%, better GB rate, less barrel%, better xISO, xERA, xBA, Whiff%, and less HR (in a much more HR friendly park) in 2022. Lyles floor heading into 2022 (ie pre-Holt) was much lower then Gibson’s heading into 2023. Lyles just posted one of his best years. Gibson just posted top line stats negatively out of line with solid metrics under the hood.
His sinker is the pitch that can be used/sequenced better. Great movement, but a -4 run value seems odd.
Most of his pitches have vertical action. If he can get that sweeping slider that Holt teaches, it’ll give him something with horizontal action in his bag of tricks. Gibson’s 2019 stats are with a plus horizontal break on his slider, so he’s capable.
This. Clear upgrade, indeed. This is a signing that winning MLB teams make. According to Nathan Ruiz, he would have had 25% less home runs in 2022 had he played in Camden Yards. In his 2021 All Star season with Texas, he had a 3.71 ERA in 182 innings between the Rangers and Phillies. A 2.89 ERA with the Rangers in 19 starts.
Not a TOR, but for a FA signing in early December, I am happy with it. Looking at his analytics suggests he can be used better in Baltimore in 2023.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-gibson/10123/stats?position=P
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11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:
Sorry, didn't mean to steal your thunder.
But yeah, seems that they like him. Power and speed are always a pretty sexy combo.
Probably not, but you have to fill out the fringes of your organization somehow, and sometimes those filler guys turn into Ramon Urias or Migual Gonzalez.
No thunder stolen, you put it better than I probably would have anyway.
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9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:
Really I was talking about this guy….. are you in?
I live in Florida, my friend. Sure. It isn’t that I’m sure Franchy is some kind of great signing, he may not work out. But this is the kind of gamble you take. Sometimes it works, sometimes no. The ones I mentioned worked out. That was my point.
But a cold beer, I’m down for that. Sure.
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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:
Any body want to bet a couple of draft beers that that 4A players never amount anything other than a crappy space filler?
Oh, like Mateo, Urias, Mullins, Perez, Baker, Kremer, Watkins, etc…? Asking for a friend
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14 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:
True …but why pay $450,000 for a AAA player?
@DrinkinWithFermi answered what I was going to reply. That may seem like a lot, but the better minor league FA’s sign for more than most think every year. That does seem a little more than most though.
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1 hour ago, Going Underground said:
Did you see Rylan Bannon was claimed by the Astros?
He’s been claimed and waived a few times, I believe, since being DFA’d. I think the Dodgers had him too, right? Our infield depth is ridiculous right now and he became expendable. My guess is they’ll DFA him too and hope to keep him in AAA for depth at 3B.
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The winter meetings have not started yet. They sign Cordero to a minor league deal, and some here rant all over Elias for this move. I have no idea why, honestly. They take a chance on Cordero and Diaz, probably see potential to make them much better. Apparently, it is stupid to take a low risk, low cost flier on a potential higher upside talent in a thin market for LH power bats. Check.
Some moaned and groaned about Cave, even after we knew Elias would DFA him and try to outright him. He does it, and the Phillies claim Cave. A team fresh off the World Series sees value in Cave. Huh, how about that. I guess the Phillies are fond of befuddling their fans too.
I get the skepticism about ownership. We all do. Can we at least wait until after mid-January to complain? What’s the rush? Maybe just wait and see what moves they do or do not make? At this point, if Elias and crew have not earned a little benefit of the doubt when it comes to picking up solid waiver claims and making them into usable pieces, I don’t know what he’ll have to do. We’ll see about trades and FA signings. No real track record yet, and until Elias builds a true winner, some will never have a reason to be upbeat about the possibilities.
Some posters crack me up. Not the ones who persist with the “print the playoff tickets” posts, but the ones who just need to piss and moan about something. Never mind, as you were.
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9 hours ago, LookinUp said:
Interesting that you note his intangibles twice.
Hopefully the O's can develop him, and hopefully he carries himself like a real professional. Falling in the draft can be humbling. Getting $1.3 million can drive the ego though.
That is what I heard from more than one source. The fact that Elias and Ciolek drafted him gives me hope that what I was told is overstated. Hopefully, he can mature the way they obviously believe he can. They would not give him $1.3 million if they did not believe in him.
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In fairness, the ownership has never given a big contract to a FA starting pitcher anywhere near the size Rodon, Degrom and Verlander would cost.
Roch did write about their likely pursuit of Bassit at around 3 years for $60 million. That is not exactly cheap, is it? I believe that would be the largest contract ever given to a FA pitcher by the organization.
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47 minutes ago, Frobby said:
From Roch today:
When you say the Orioles aren't shopping in the top tier of free agency, does that include Carlos Rodón?
He’s in the top tier. The Orioles may float some offers, as I’ve said, but they’ll be much more aggressive on the second and third levels. Upgrades are available. To say they’re “fishing in the deep end” of free agency doesn’t mean they’re ready to break the bank. It means they’re talking to agents and getting an accurate read on the prices. Never hurts to do that.https://www.masnsports.com/blog/because-you-asked-holiday-heist
Does Roch actually know anything? Is he being told this by the club? Or is he just stating his opinion? I believe the latter. Doesn’t mean he’s wrong.
I think that’s his read on things, based on what has been done by this regime and the little tidbits he gets. (I don’t think he gets nearly as much info as he used to from past GM’s.) I feel the same way, I’ll believe they’re spending big when they actually do it, not until. No matter how much sense it seems to make to me to bring in a true #1 starter.
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23 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:
For whatever reason he reminds me a bit of Caydn Grenier, who was a former First Round (supplemental) pick the recieved a similar size bonus ($1.8mm in 2018). They had similar offensive numbers from major college baseball powerhouses and had a strong reputation for their defense at SS. Obviously Young appears to have a far higher offensive ceiling, so it'll be interesting to watch his development. Hopefully he has more success than Grenier.
Grenier has some intangible issues, and Young may have some as well. We’ll see. I remember defending the Grenier pick a bit at the time, but I was dead wrong. He never made adjustments he needed to make. And he is not very athletic. I am not surprised he has been passed by so many better players recently.
Young has some twitch to his game that Grenier does not. We’ll see how he responds to being coached in the professional game. If he can put his ego aside and really buy in, he might just be a steal.
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I think he’ll have to adjust to being pitched up and in, especially by LHP. He has a hole up there. He did better when he stopped trying to muscle up and pull the ball as much. The lack of a shift should help him some as well. It appeared to me that he also moved in on the plate and dared pitchers to come inside. Maybe he became too pull conscious to try to get back to 30 HR’s again. He got HBP nine times vs. eight in 2021. It seemed like he was constantly getting knocked down or brushed back.
As to who he is going forward, I think he’ll be better than his 2022 numbers. I think he hangs in well against LHP’s and uses the whole field better than he used to. He’s not a 30 HR guy, and probably not even a consistent 20 HR guy. I would be disappointed if he has to platoon, but I do think he can play about 125-130 games or so, giving him a rest twice a week. Keep him as healthy as possible, maybe DH now and then.
If he’s .270/.350/.410/.760, that’s a good player to me. I think he is capable of that. With his work ethic, I believe in him and his ability to reach that level. I think he found out some things about himself in 2022. With his health concerns in check, apparently, I look for better numbers than 2022. I don’t see another Silver Slugger coming, though.
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This was a fantastic late round pick up. The only one who can stop Young from being a major league player is Young himself. Great tools, we’ll see about the intangibles.
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7 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
I bet @Jammer7has some first hand knowledge of the UF hitting philosophy?
Not first-hand, but let’s just say they had several kids the past 5-6 years go there who were studs. Guys who were supposed to be no doubt first round picks when they left UF. Nearly all regressed badly, some have given up the game completely. They used to develop their kids well, but it seems cementing the legend of a coach has taken over. Other teams in the SEC do both, and UF used to do it.
There is a cultural issue there more than anything. The video RZ shared where Jud spoke of the pressure at UF kinda hits on it. Probably best to leave it at that.
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40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
By most standards? No
By the Os? Borderline.
This is why I have been saying trades are the best and most obvious way for this team to greatly improve the staff.
They are not going to spend the money. They may spend the prospects.
I agree. Until this team spends big money on a FA pitcher, I won’t believe it. A trade is the best fit as you said.
I have to admit, I have been quietly hoping they bring in Verlander on a 2-3 year deal with a high AAV. To me, that makes the most sense if they would actually do it. Who knows if he would want to come to Baltimore, but he did grow up in Virginia.
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Povich and Fabian, but it could be any of them.
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As I understand the metric, it is based on all those who played 3B, correct? Or is it all infielders? Or what?
I would just add that some infielders rarely throw the ball harder than they need to for an out to be recorded. Tony Fernandez, for instance, was notorious for throwing the ball just in time to get a runner.
I don’t think Ramon has a cannon, but the eyes say average 3B when he throws from foul territory behind 3B. His average may only be 81 or so, but what is his max velo? I could not find that on Savant.
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In fairness, I’m not sure I understand all of the waiver wire journeyman catcher hoarding, but in the end, it is what we figured it would be. Whatever. Onward and upward.
Orioles 2022 31-50 Prospects
in Minors
Posted
Yes, you are right. The “prospect Luis Ortiz,” the LHP. Anything on that one?