Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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The Odor hate here is predictable. Gunnar boots two double plays and cost us a game, but it’s Odor who gets lambasted as the problem? In fairness, Gunnar has not played much 2B and it is ridiculous that they put him in that position in a supposed playoff run. I cannot believe that was Hyde’s decision. Terrible decision by the front office, IMO. Gunnar’s confidence was a bit shaken after that too. You could see it in his body language.
The team became deflated because of it. All we read here is how bad Odor is. The team wants Odor at 2B every day. The pitchers need him there. He is their heart and soul. That guy busts it every night and they respect him. Gunnar is the future, absolutely. An amazing talented young player. But they should play this team out, win or lose with the guys who got you here. Mendoza line be damned. The guy has shown this team how to play winning baseball.
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10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
He gets a lot of hate but Odor had a classic sequence last night. Helps protect Baker and Adley, then the very next inning should have gotten himself thrown out stretching a routine single into a double but makes it on a wildly improbable swim dive, triggering a 3 run rally. Excellent quote following the game.
You do know that is a parody account, right? He did not say anything like that.
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2 minutes ago, nevadaO said:
This. It's a different view off the bat, you move completely different...
That being said that was as routine as it gets and he should've had that.
It’s a little different, not that much. He’ll be great, but this is tough for a young guy like him to come into this situation. That said, it’s a ground ball, one that Odor turns two. Odor would have had two the other time as well. It is what it is.
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Henderson is going to be great. Odor’s value is glaring today.
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46 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
This is the kind of stuff we can never know from B-Ref or Fangraphs or pigeonholing players as stat-producing robots, but on a gut level I agree with this take.
Rougned Odor 2.3.1994 and Jorge Mateo 6.23.1995 I'd guess had similar childhoods as ballplayers great enough to attract MLB interest, but their paths to MLB reps split sharply. Entering this year Odor had seen almost everything, and Mateo almost nothing.
They have been a helluva double play combination. A key success factor entering 2023 if if Mateo's growth will prove sticky as better players replace Odor as his second baseman. I am watching with interest how this month's different combinations mesh.
Its understandable for a team like the 2022 Orioles to make a development project out of the entire starting middle infield, and its worked to the extent where I don't expect either Westburg or Ortiz to outplay Mateo while Holliday bakes. I'm hopeful the water will be just as good next year with Mateo steadying Westburg like Odor perhaps helped steady him this year. The best 2023's I feel involve Gunnar-Mateo-Westburg-RMC being infield rocks like some recent Braves teams have enjoyed.
Very good post. I think there is great value in the numbers provided by FanGraphs and BRef and Savant. Several posters, including yourself, quote those things well and make sense of it in an easy to read format. There are some things that are difficult to quantify. Even Sig has said so.
When I have watched Mateo and Odor play together, there is a professionalism and consistency to Mateo’s game that was missing previously. Hyde has alluded to it when speaking about Odor and Mateo. You see the interactions between Mateo, Odor, Chirinos and Santander and there is a comfort there with them. I am very confident in saying Mateo and Santander are better because of the presence of Odor and Chirinos.
It really has the same kind of things that Cal has always talked about. Preparation and a professional consistent approach to every aspect every day.
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20 minutes ago, Too Tall said:
Jammer7 - you nailed it! Thank you!
Thanks for reading that very long post. lol
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This might be my favorite team as a fan since 1977, maybe. It depends on how they finish. They are not the most talented, but there was largely unproven or immature talent that has progressed well. They came into the year as a bunch of cast offs and underdogs. They take much better at bats than in years past. They are more athletic, dynamic and fun. They catch the ball about as well as I can remember any Orioles team, overall. Mostly, they never quit. They are a flawed bunch, but they will not back down. They are a team, and it shows.
Good teams are built up the middle. Mateo is the shining example of development at the major league level, and he did it at SS, the most demanding and important defensive position. The bat is still evolving, but the growth is obvious.
Most did not expect Ced to repeat his 30/30 season. He has continued to evolve as a hitter. He is using the whole field more, and working counts better. The defense has been solid, spectacular often. The arm has improved, thanks mostly to keeping his fingers behind the ball. (It seems strange that no one fixed that before 2021, yikes!)
Adding Adley has been a huge reason for the overall team improvement. His impact is felt in every corner of the dugout and clubhouse. He is making adjustments on the fly, and in a playoff chase. Mature beyond his years. He has not disappointed me in any way.
Santander is showing traits similar to his 2020 season. He has lost a step, and looks less athletic than he did in 2020. Perhaps he bulked up too much, or maybe the leg injuries have taken a toll. The swing decisions have improved greatly and he has managed to stay healthy. (He is starting to evoke memories of Ken Singleton for me.)
Hays had a very good first half, and is obviously out of sync right now. The injuries to his hands and wrists are obvious. There is not a tougher man out there in uniform. Diving in, trying to get around and yank everything is killing his numbers. A few nights ago, he drilled a line drive to RF, which was caught. He looked absolutely disgusted. I hope he keeps with a more balanced approach. The bigger issue might be that he is pounding the ball into the ground. His defense is very good. And the guy is an absolute grinder. Sort of a right handed Paul O’Neill for me.
Mountcastle is starting to come around again. Out of sync, and caught often in-between, mentally. He started chasing again around the break. If he can keep being more patient, it’s a good sign for us. We need that bat to be productive. I have also noted his defensive improvement. Several diving plays and picks at 1B. Still somewhat of a work in progress, the footwork in particular has been a challenge at times.
Urias is a quiet unsung hero of sorts. Solid, if unspectacular, at 3B, sometimes 2B. Sneaky pop, makes me laugh. He hits the ball as hard as anyone on the team. They have gotten him to get the bat head out front and drive balls out to LCF. He has had trouble balancing that with his usual RCF approach, at times. His development and play has been as important to this team as much as any position player not named Adley or Mateo.
And then there is Odor. I did not see why Hyde wanted him on this team to start at 2B. I was vocal about it, and I was wrong in some ways. He has been very good defensively. In particular, he has been used in a very challenging way in our shifts. Many MLB 2B cannot do what he has done. I think that is why his OAA and other metrics are down on him. As far as his “cheerleading” or whatever, he has had his value as a leader. On and off the field, he is just that. I give him a lot of credit in the growth of Jorge Mateo, though Mateo deserves much of the credit himself. Odor has helped him in ways few players could have. Odor’s offensive numbers are, well they are offensive. He shows glimpses of hitting line drives to LCF now and then. But he follows that up with swinging with a massive launch angle the next three at bats. Maybe his time has come and gone. Perhaps he has had what impact he could have and it is time to sit and watch Gunnar. But to discount completely what Odor has done for this team, then you do not understand how the game is played at that level.
The coaching staff, scouts and analysts are flying under the radar, but they might be the most important component of all of this. All of the little things add up. And these folks do a helluva job! Hat tip.
The rotation is over their heads, talent-wise. The pen is seemingly ready to fall apart. The lineup has had trouble scoring runs for the past month. I’m not sure they can sustain themselves through the Wildcard run. The fact that they are playing real meaningful games in September just warms my heart. Whatever happens, just enjoy it.
The weird thing for me comes after this season. What becomes of this team? What to do with Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Stowers, Vavra and so on? What does this mean for Mateo, Santander, Urias, Hays and probably Ced? I have become attached to some of these lovable underdogs. The way forward to “lift off” is exciting. This is such a highly intelligent non-traditional front office. They have a stable full of talented kids to develop or deal. They have money to spend. It seems like the end of an era, and the beginning of something we have never seen before in Baltimore. Time to win, and for a long time.
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43 minutes ago, bluedog said:
I am wondering if Lopez has some makeup issues that caused the O's to move on from him.
I think he rides an emotional roller coaster. Hyde got the best out of him, but Jorge is fragile with his confidence.
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3 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:
My first question would be, what do the analytics say about the match ups?
My second question would be, is he a little bit dinged up?
I do not know the answer to either one of these questions so it is difficult for us to know the significance of the "Whoa" moment.
I do believe he is dinged up. All of those two seamers in on his hands and wrists have taken a toll.
I have said this for two years that he dives in and tries to yank pitches to left far too often. This has been a change I do not like for him. When he first came up, he was hitting balls out to all fields with big power. The plate discipline was poor, and he could not stay healthy. He was destined to be a star.
Now, he has stayed on the field, but he has holes that can be exploited. He hits the ball hard, but on the ground far too often. Since getting banged up, he has taken to chasing the slider down and away again.
I think Ced hitting for him was more to do with this moment in time, and the situation, rather than an indictment on Hays overall. But he has work to do to get back to the player he was in the first half.
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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I have to say, next spring training could be one of the most interesting ones ever for the Orioles. There’s going to be a ton of competition at 2B/SS/3B and even the OF, and I’m not talking about AAAA retreads, but legit major leaguers and top prospects going at it. Then you’ll have Grayson and Hall both competing for rotation spots. And we don’t even know what other players will be added to the roster in the offseason!
I’m hoping to spend two weeks in Florida next March and catch 3-5 games while I’m there. It’s going to be exciting!
It should prove to a very interesting winter hot stove season as well. The 40 man is about to get really tight if no trades are made to relieve that. Gunnar and Westburg do not need to be protected this winter unless they are called up and added to the 40 man before the end of the year.
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11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
What a bunch of morons.
It’s been sad to watch. I know some of the kids, and none of them make excuses. But they used to be a cutting edge team, and kids wanted to play for the hometown team. Some were supposed to first round talent and just disappeared over the past few years. Armstrong and Calilao, in particular, were studs with first round tools. I watched them grow up over the years, and scouts’ praise of their tools was effusive. They barely played the past two years.
To be fair, HS and college coaches do not get paid to produce pro players. They get paid to win. I think it clear that both goals can be accomplished. Certain programs are still living in the 90’s. There are some players who will not even play HS ball anymore because of this vary thing. It leads to overuse of pitchers and coaches telling kids to change their swings or approaches. Both cases are very detrimental to a promising future for a kid. It’s the ugly side of the game for me. So many talented kids get thrown away.
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18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
He's been very impressive overall. Not sure how he hit soo poorly this year in college with the approach I've seen from him so far.
Word I got was they wanted him to swing more aggressively to drive in runs. They pressed him to do that. The UF staff has some strange practices these days. Many talented kids regressed there the past 2-3 years.
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9 hours ago, LA2 said:
Does anyone know why he had to take that leave?
Not that I have seen.
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11 minutes ago, Pickles said:
I think Frobby's projection might be a little rosy for Hays/Mullins but it is not far off. Those two guys should be close to 7 WAR this year. I think that is a pretty fair projection. 8 might be stretching it a bit but it isn't unrealisitic.
So call it 21 WAR over three years. Doesn't change the math me for much. It's still a no brainer.
I agree. The only question I have is how much more revenue does Trout bring each year? Beyond butts in seats, merchandising and such?
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13 hours ago, eddie83 said:
You know what I mean….
Stowers and Vavra have to play!!!
I don’t mind they are here but the expectations from some are bit much.
Sure, I agree. I just do not know where Vavra should play defensively. He is a liability on a good team. The arm is just not there. It actually looks like he doesn’t use his lower half correctly at times.
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3 minutes ago, Sydnor said:
I’ve said this multiple times about Vavra because I’ve seen him play multiple times at Harbor Park. His arm isn’t great. His range is probably average. He can play at second if the bat plays, but I have concerns about whether the bat plays because he lacks power, and a lot of his value is OBP driven, which I don’t think is sustainable without power.
Vavra is not a MLB 2B. Not on a good team, anyway. That arm just will not play.
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12 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
Everyone whined and wanted this lineup.
They got it.
Well, not everyone, brother. That arm is poor.
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4 hours ago, Frobby said:
Nothing extraordinary.
The big question with Mateo is where does his bat finally settle in? He has an 89 OPS+ for his career, 96 this season, 97 in 2021-22 as an Oriole. He had a .660 OPS over his first 32 games this year, .441 over his next 33, .893 over the most recent 48 games. You can look at that and see almost anything you want. Overall, at the current 96 OPS+ his glove is easily good enough to carry his bat, which isn’t too bad. But if his current hot streak represents some real learning and long-lasting improvement, he really could be a star-level player. I’m not talking about .893 OPS, I mean if he could be .740-.750 long term he’d be a star. So, he’s going to be interesting to watch.
I agree. I’m just not sure. The recent swing decisions he exhibits gives me hope. There is slightly above average power there, and the hands work, but he still needs to improve his approach. He has shortened the swing and I like his load better now. He is generally very pull oriented, but occasionally shows he can go right center. If that can continue, the sky is the limit as long as he lays off the slider off the outside corner.
I am cautiously optimistic he can be a .740-.750 OPS guy. But I would not put money on it.
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3 hours ago, owknows said:
Yes. I know. You said that earlier.
My point was that the statistical evidence seems to call what you think you've seen into question.
Respectfully, that evidence is weak, at best. We disagree, and that’s cool. Hopefully, it works out soon, either way.
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2 hours ago, owknows said:
Statistically, their performance is not significantly different (with Vavra having the slightly better fielding PCT last I checked). They are similar, even with respect to double-play rates. Which would tend to discredit this line of thinking (with regard to Vavra's arm, or at least as it effects his DP turning.)
I'm inclined to think (as was suggested by Roll Tide.. that it is simply Hyde's preference, and that Vavra's defense has gotten a bum rap due to speculation over what possible reason Hyde would have to continue to play Odor.... And if so... it's kind of a pity... as these kinds of things become lore, whether they have any actual foundation or not.
Skill-wise, I don’t think it’s even close in any defensive aspect from what I have seen. His arm is short, but maybe passable at 2B. I do not love the footwork, and the hands are average at best. He only played 24 games in AAA at 2B, about half of his games there. I hope we’re not comparing fielding %, though they are both at .971. Not a great stat to compare them.
Hyde wants to win. If he thought Vavra is a better 2B overall, he would be playing him there. Vavra also has to prove he can stay healthy for the full year. He last played a full season in low A ball in 2019.
Maybe Hyde deserves the benefit of the doubt about that decision. Maybe they move Odor out. Richie Martin is up, and Arauz is coming back soon. Honestly, not sure why Nevin is still on the roster. I am not sure Odor will stay around as a bench role.
The Orioles ask their 2B to do a lot in their shifts. I don’t think Vavra is capable of doing what they have asked Odor to do at the same level. Odor brings a lot of energy each day, while Vavra is more reserved. If Odor is DFA’d, it might be Urias who moves over, but I like him better at 3B. Urias does not bring the same ability, though his arm is solid above average.
In a SSS of 48 at bats, I like Vavra’s short swing. I can’t say he shows much power, but gap to gap will work for now. For me, he has a lot to prove as an infielder.
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5 hours ago, owknows said:
I see no evidence to support this conclusion.
Odor turns a double play much better than most MLB 2B, IMO. Odor’s arm is a grade stronger than Vavra. Odor throws from various angles better as well. That is what I was talking about. Just my observation.
In fairness, I have not seen a lot of Vavra at 2B, because Hyde obviously feels better with Odor there. So all I have to go on is limited video. Well, maybe the fact that the organization has played him in the OF so much is a clue as well.
Lately, I have been paying a lot more attention to the positioning and the shifts they have on Odor. Along with the impact of what throws he has to make. It is very difficult for the average 2B to play in nearly medium deep RF and throw someone out at 1B. He often makes that play, and I think that the throw he made the other night was of this position. His throw was low, but Mountcastle should have had that pick. Mounty’s footwork was terrible there. I sure he would say so himself.
That position flexibility at 2B is a weakness for Vavra. I sure do like his bat and they have to find a way to get him in there. Maybe 2B is it, and they DFA Odor soon. IDK. They will have change the way they shift though.
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8 hours ago, forphase1 said:
And in at least 1 of those walk off wins, we were only losing due to his bonehead plays in the field and/or basepaths. Can't just look at the few times when he has had some big hits without also looking at the times he cost us games. Heck you could argue today since the came to bat twice, both times needing a big hit as, per usual, he failed. Does the good offset the bad? I certainly think not.
And sure players are quoted as saying what a difference they are making. What else are they going to say 'yeah, that .206 average really gives us a lift in the #7 spot!'? Often when you hear some stuff about leadership and preparing us better it's often to make an otherwise failing player seem like they are actually pulling their weight. Again, do you expect a player to tell a reporter about what a black hole that bat is in the lineup, and how they shouldn't even be in the league, even if that's the facts and how the players really feel? I don't know any ex MLB players, but I do know a few ex NFL players from following my local university, and I know for a fact that in many cases what athletes say in interviews are not even close to how they really think or feel. I doubt MLB players/coaches are any different.
For the record I'm ok with Chirinos, though again I'd like a better bat. But I certainly like him more than Severino, and think he's a breath of fresh air at the backstop position. He has a spot on the team, though if we had another good defense catcher with a hotter bat, then perhaps my tune would be different. But Odor was a poor signing, it's a bad use of a valuable roster spot, and at MOST he should be a role bit player, and not getting nearly as much playing time as he is.
Both Odor and Chrinos have been on teams that sucked, both at the same time if I recall. How can that be if they are so valuable in the clubhouse?!?!?! And folks claimed we were going to crater after losing the 'heart' of the team in Trey and the closer of our team in Lopez, yet here we still are, right in the thick of things. Clubhouse presence, the impact folks have on their teammates, etc is WAY overvalued around here at times. Cutting Odor would only help this team, not send us crashing to the ground because Mateo and Santander are missing their BFF.
You can claim we have been much better because of them. I claim we are being much better in SPITE of them, and would likely be even better if they had been replaced with more capable players. While I can't prove you wrong, you certainly can't prove me wrong either. Likely we will just have to agree to disagree on the real impact, positively or negatively, that having Odor on the team has had.
Good morning. Every player makes errors. Odor is certainly a flawed player, perhaps the most flawed player on the roster. I’m not arguing he is anything else. (Chirinos too.) But he also grinds, and that is something a lot of the younger guys needed to see. There is value there. Perhaps that value has come and gone. I do not actually disagree. I am simply saying he has had an impact, even if the fans don’t see it.
Players could say nothing about them, but they make T shirts about Chirinos’ daily sayings and celebrate his impact. Hyde has gone out of his way to mention both of them, even when unsolicited. There is a human factor in every clubhouse. I do not know what would happen if Odor was DFA’d. That may be coming soon. All I said was that if the team faded around the time he was let go, I would hate to be the one that made that decision. Especially considering they already moved Trey and Lopez.
Hyde has those guys on the roster for a reason. He believes in what they bring. Actual baseball guys understand the value they bring. Fans, obviously some don’t think so much of it. When all you see is numbers, it’s hard to see what they bring. Look at the impact they have had on others, however that’s tough to prove beyond listening to whom the player credits.
The only fact in the entire discussion is that we have a winning record with them so far, which has much exceeded most expectations and the record before they came. This team has been gritty and fun to watch. Whether or not they are still of value, IDK.
It may be time for Odor to move on. Perhaps the talk they had with him last week was an honest discussion where they explained things to him. Maybe it is best for the growth of the team as a whole.
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5 minutes ago, forphase1 said:
Based on???? Just our overall record and that they happen to be on the team? Both are terrible with the bat, and Odor really isn't good in the field either. Chirinos is OK as a backup catcher, though I'd like one with more offense, but I can live with that. Other than being a good cheerleader, Odor doesn't bring much to the team. We can point to the record all we want and claim it's partly due to two sub replacement level players. I think it much more likely our record would be even better if we had decent players in their place.
Odor has at least three walk off wins by himself. Beside that, many players are being quoted about what a difference these two have made. They lead every day in the preparation the younger guys do. The simple fact is, before they came we were not a winning team. You can say that Adley is the biggest difference maker, and I think that is correct.
Chirinos’ effect on the young pitchers, aside from his pitch framing, has been a very good development. Many on the pitching staff credited him early, along with Bemboom and Holt. Maybe the biggest this he does is keep the guys up and appreciate the opportunity they have before them.
Odor has been huge at 2B next to Mateo. Several times I have seen Odor pulling Mateo aside and teaching him something after a play. They appear to be pretty close. Odor has been a steadying influence and a mentor to Mateo. His offensive stats are pretty hard to justify, and maybe his time has come. But I do believe he is pretty valuable in the clubhouse. They already traded Trey and Lopez, two very popular guys. If they subtract Odor, it may not matter at this point. But it might to a few players like Mateo and Santander.
We have been much better because of them and the impact they have had on their teammates. It’s a team game. The handling of the people side of players matters on winning teams.
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We are a very flawed team. It’s easy to point to Odor, and want him gone. Not sure I disagree at this point. But, let’s be honest. Before he and Chirinos arrived, this team was much worse. They were awful. Since they arrived, we are a winning team. That is the only metric that really matters, and they have had a huge impact on that.
Vavra is not close to the defender that Odor is, but is he good enough to support him replacing Odor for a much better offensive approach? IDK, maybe he is. If they DFA Odor, will that be an unrecoverable blow for this team in the playoff hunt? IDK. If it might be, should they make that move and take that chance? I wouldn’t want to be that GM. But what do I know. Maybe some of you are right.
Watkins down ….not Hall
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Hall is definitely not ready. And maybe that is the point. For him to see just how much he needs to improve to be the stud he should be. I agree with you on Hall, but Watkins isn’t fooling good teams. This time of year, the game changes. Watkins is not a starter on a playoff team for me.