Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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8 hours ago, baltfan said:
I would think the delay is so the others after the 10th pick wouldn’t know how much money is left. They took McLean with the first pick of Day 2. They had to know his number before pulling the trigger. The interesting thing is that while pundits seemed to like the pick, they weren’t blown away by it. Now Callis is talking about paying him over $2mm. Strange.
Could be that they stall as you suggest for the negotiation with Walters, I suppose. I think it may be that McLean either changed his demands or there is something with the physical. It is strange. I really like McLean’s profile. Maybe he wants to play both ways moreso than what Elias and Blood want him to. IDK.
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Showalter is a 6-foot-1, 195-pound righthander with a close-to-maxed-out frame and an impressive fastball. The pitch sits in the 90-95 mph range and plays up with what scouts have called “elite ride.” He dominated with the pitch during the summer and fall and got loads of swing and miss in the middle and top of the zone against high school hitters. It’s an easy plus fastball projection given the life and velocity of the pitch, though Showalter’s secondaries need more refinement. He throws a slurvy breaking ball in the upper 70s that is below-average and has also infrequently thrown a firm, mid-80s changeup that also needs to improve to get to an average pitch. Showalter throws solid strikes, but his lack of secondaries adds to his reliever risk.
Maybe this report from BA explains why Showalter was paid what he was. A lot of reliever risk here. “Elite ride” on the FB.
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We figured McLean, a draft eligible Sophomore, would be a good amount over slot when he was drafted. We are relatively confident the Orioles knew the number it would take to sign him before taking him as the first pick on day 2. The delay in his signing is curious.
Andrew Walters, Alden Mathes, James Hicks and Carter Young remain unsigned as well. We have been told Young might not be signable, with his signing with LSU. Walters might be a back up to McLean, but seems unlikely as well. Are Mathes and Hicks going to be over the $125K guys too? Interesting finish to this class.
Edit: I just read an article in the draft tracker post about Mathes not signing. Too bad.
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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
The thing is, he has had all of those qualities for his whole career and he has been a below average player.
Having tools doesn’t mean you will make it. Far more players have failed with tools than those who have succeeded.
Mateo is playing well right now and he has value. Whether it’s as a super UTI guy getting 300-400 at bats or an everyday SS, who knows.
Well, this is the first time he has actually played everyday in MLB. The stats are what they are, it I think it is reasonable to expect some improvement/growth. I am not sure what he looks like by this time next year.
I think he is in the optimal situation for his development right now in Baltimore. I seriously doubt he becomes a super UT player anytime soon, unless he suddenly becomes uncoachable. I think it makes a difference for him when he plays SS. He sees himself as a SS. It’s a pride or ego thing, whatever. I’m not sure he can be as engaged elsewhere on the field.
He needs continued leadership around him, and I think his stock is volatile until he matures more. He was maligned a bit for a “lack of focus” in previous scouting reports as a prospect on BA when with the Yanks. If all goes right, he could be Tim Anderson with more speed. If it goes wrong, he could be Tim Beckham. I don’t think he’s an attractive trade target for a contender. I also don’t think we have a better (or anyone close) defensive SS next season, unless you think Joey Ortiz is coming quickly.
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2 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:
I don't think Mateo has superstar potential striking out 30% of the time.
Obviously his defense makes him a useful piece, but let's not go nuts.
Yeah, potential is a dangerous thing to dream on. But man, is he exciting to watch. He is the kind of guy who puts butts in seats. He obviously strikes out way too much. The slider, especially the one off the outer half, is his arch enemy. If he can reign that in, and it’s a big if, then he might unlock something more special. If he’s .240/.300/.420/.720, I think that’s reasonable as a goal for him. He is capable of much more, I think.
Maybe the best thing about him is that he has stayed pretty healthy, except the freak collision on the West coast. That tells me his preparation is very good and he has become a solid professional. Athleticism like his is difficult to keep healthy for an everyday player.
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Yeah, no doubt LSU is an attractive option. Maybe LSU has a plan to help him advance his swing decisions and approach issues. As well as get him healthy. It’s ballsy to do this. Jud Fabian lost a lot of money, but I’m starting to think he really wants to be an Oriole. Maybe Young doesn’t. Shrugs…
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14 minutes ago, Chaka Garcia said:
Being a 22 year old senior next year, don’t see how he will get a better deal - the O’s at minimum will help him be in a better position to be MLB ready with a top notch development staff.
Yeah, not sure what they offered him. I guess he thinks he can get healthy and back to first round form with the plan he has in place. Too bad, good luck to him, though.
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They have normally tried to have guys make their debut appearance in a situation they can have the best chance of success. Like @MurphDoggpointed out, he isn’t great against LHP. I’d like to see him too.
Just a thought, but maybe there is a team looking at Odor. It may not be likely, just a thought.
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25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
I think that is my point. We're in a different place because we've followed a completely different strategy. When Elias started we were in a much worse situation than DD inherited.
IDK, the team Buck inherited was really bad. That is an interesting question. They were both absolutely awful. And the organization was in the dark ages throughout the time.
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Rough news for Druw. I hope he heals quickly in time for Spring 2023.
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5 minutes ago, forphase1 said:
Sure, they talk about it, as what else do you expect them to say? The truth? 'Yeah we love Odor. His bat sucks, he's average in the field at best, and because of senority I feel obligated to play him.' Nope. Instead they used unmeasurable (and I believe at least partially imaginary) clichés like chemistry, glue, veteran presence, etc to explain how 'valuable' they are to the team.
Again, I'm not trying to say that things like being a good teammate and mentoring other players isn't a good thing...it is. But that in and of itself is not enough to justify keeping a roster spot when the performance at the plate is so subpar. Regardless of what kind of flowery phrases the manager or teammates state to the media and fans.
I bet tonight when the 'glue' stranded 2 runners at 3rd base many of those teammates were wishing for someone with a little less veteran presence and a bit more bat to ball skills...
He was 2-5 tonight, with an RBI. You’re right, he should get a hit every time up. Vavra will. And we’ll win every game when our closer gives up two runs in the 10th. Whatever…
I can see you don’t understand it. It’s cool. Have a good night.
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49 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Do you think if Odor was not here this year the team would not be where they are? How much impact do you think his veteranosity adds?
I think Odor is a good clubhouse guy, but I don't for a second think he's some kind of reason why this team is doing some well. The team is 10-2 when he doesn't play. Is that because he's so good at cheerleading when he doesn't play?
Every single number tells us that Odor is not a good MLB player. We are trying to be a contender. We do not need replacement level or below players starting every game when there are replacements that need to be seen. Maybe Vavra is not the answer. I'd rather give him a nice long look this year vs giving Odor playing time.
Maybe its just me. Who knows? Maybe his veteranosity powers are beyond understanding? If the team played better with him in the games I might be swayed, but again, the facts show otherwise.
To answer your question, no, I do not think they would be where they are without him, or a veteran like him, to do as I described. There is not a metric to show it, but baseball men know it is real. I am surprised you would discount it so readily. That is why they talk about it on young teams that rise up. The defensive improvement for Mateo is definitely, in part, thanks to Odor.
Every sport has it’s need for a role player, a glue guy, that makes everyone else better. It may be time soon for Odor to move on. Perhaps his job here is done. IDK. His numbers are terrible, I agree. When he goes the other way, he’s actually productive. He tries to do too much, needs an approach change, at least in some situations. Easier to just DFA him and put an unproven, but talented, prospect out there. Vavra is an unproven hitter at this level, but should be better after his learning curve. But can he stay healthy?
The team record without him, maybe it is an after effect of what groundwork he has helped to lay out for the younger guys. He also came in and pinch hit and won some games that way.
Odor is not a guy who has value to a contender, no. But for a struggling group of castoffs, who have been cast aside from various organizations and underachieved, his leadership has made a big difference. He makes the other players more accountable, but also more comfortable out there.
To your point, however, there comes a time when that player’s effectiveness cannot justify his weak production. Perhaps they are at that time.
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4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
The more I read up on Walters and Young, I don't think the Orioles should break the bank for either. I like Walters more than Young because you can't teach 99 MPH, and Young has too much risk with way too much miss against college pitching. Get Showalter done and if they can pull of Walters, I'd be happy.
I agree on Walters. He is nasty, and it’s easy ched. It sounds like Young needs to get healthy and to find an approach more suited to his physicality and ability. I think he’s a talent you take a shot at. I think they could present a legitimate case to Young that they develop hitters well now, and he would be better off beginning his pro career now and have a chance to make MLb money sooner.
If the remaining figure is $1.4 million for McLean, Showalter, Young and Walters, it might be tough to get all four. McLean should be an over slot as an eligible Sophomore. The rest, I have no idea what it takes. Stotle said it might take seven figures on Young. If that is the case, I think they’re out on that.
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12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
There is definitely a fanboy aspect to the guys who think Odor actually helps this team win. If Odor was not jumping up and putting on homer necklaces, they would be calling for his head like the rest of us.
Sure, it's two games, but it gives us an idea about how Hyde thinks. If he continues to play Odor I will know that he's not the manager of the future here with all the prospects coming up.
We can't have the veteranosity manager managing a young team that will need to integrate rookies onto the team over the next few years. If he won't stop playing an obvious sub replacement level when they have better alternatives that concerns me.
Saying all that, I don't even know if Hyde makes out his lineups. For all I know Sid's computer pops out this lineup and somehow Odor has hacked into it and made the program think he's the 2016 version of himself.
Wow. I’m surprised to see this comment from you. Odor’s stats are poor, absolutely. I have no argument, based on statistics. The main reason he has had an impact is that he has mentored Mateo, and probably Urias, about how to go about their daily business as a pro ball player. The coaches can only teach just so much. Having Roogie there next to them has had a bigger impact than many fans think. About the only thing I would add to what you said about his positives is that he turns a very good DP. He is a very flawed offensive player. His approach is dreadful. Somehow, he ends up in the middle of so many clutch situations despite that.Odor and Chirinos have set a tone for the way they play the game. The way they conduct themselves and roll with the daily grind in their preparation. They have helped establish a culture of winning. The Orioles have done that in the minor leagues, and made it an emphasis about learning to play the game the way they want. But at the MLB level, they have a bunch of guys from other systems that needed that example set. Get everyone on the same page. The players have much greater value than they did before. Other teams will want some of these younger vets in trades as we promote our own guys. They are building a winning culture. This is how it has to be done. It doesn’t just happen overnight.
Odor’s and Chirinos’ impact might be much less as each day goes by, and perhaps it is time to move them both along. Bring in Nottingham or Bemboom or whomever. Play Vavra everyday and see what we have. But I don’t think anyone who knows baseball can dismiss the contributions of Odor and Chirinos as being anything less than crucial to developing this team’s winning culture. Hyde talks about it often for a reason.
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My 11 year old ball player just told me that he thinks the hanging cutter is Watkins favorite pitch. He said he thinks Watkins has uncanny command of it, being that he seems to often put it in the middle of the plate. Smart kid.
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Just now, Fiver6565 said:
i wouldn't read too much into the 77. Tyler Wells is 68. Isn't Bautista 74? Granted they are pitchers, but the point is, Hyde isn't going to let a jersey number dictate how often he plays a guy.
Yeah, but both Bautista and Wells are built like Offensive Tackles, so those numbers fit well. Vavra is a WR.
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2 hours ago, btdart20 said:
A lot of time the CB is a chase/keep-them-honest-setup pitch. So, the closer the MPH is to their other pitches (especially a slider), then it's tougher to react to as a hitter. That said, spin/movement factors in as well. A guy like our own Austin Voth has a league average CB speed, but he also has really good spin/movement.
He did seem to appreciate many of our draftees CB regardless of the MPH though.
Nice explanation. Additionally, the harder the CB, the later the break, and usually not as much of a breaker. Slower, big breakers can get hung and sent a long way into the night. Chris Tillman was an example of a guy whose high FB and CB mix was great for a time. When he threw the CB with good arm speed out of the same slot, it was difficult for the hitter to pick up.
Personally, I’m not a big fan of hard CB’s. Shoulder issues seem to follow guys with higher slots. I like the CB around 78-80 more as a show me pitch, but it has to be commanded. Look what Judge did to Kremer’s well hung CB. Yikes!
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4 hours ago, btdart20 said:
Nice write up. His analysis on Fabian gives me more hope. But the Wagner blurb raises more questions.
I thought that too about Wagner, but then he said that if he was a better defender he would have given him a first round grade. So, we’ll see what Max can do in the system.
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I thought this was fairly well done.
https://medium.com/@tieranbaseball/baltimore-orioles-draft-analysis-e5ba71c0454c
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54 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:
For the past couple months I have been thinking Mateo will be a great bench player when the younger guys come up and the team becomes a contender. I had not thought of it from this angle but can see your point. Will be interesting to see if the FO views it the same way. Do you look at Mateo as our future short stop and Westburg / Henderson at 3rd and 2nd? Or Mateo traded?
For now, yes sir. Not sure how the Orioles see it, but that’s my opinion. He knows he is electric and in his prime years. He’s mercurial in his emotions. I see it when a called strike he disagrees with.
I have not seen Henderson or Westburg much at SS, being completely honest. I do think it will be difficult for either to be better defensively than Mateo right now. Ideally, let Mateo keep improving at SS, then move him when someone makes him expendable. Whomever that is. With all of the young pitchers we are ushering in, I believe there is great value in turning as many outs into outs as possible.
Elias and Hyde may feel differently, but that is my inflation-depreciated $.02.
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1 hour ago, jrobb21613 said:
I'd move Urias as part of a package with a bullpen arm. Mateo's speed, defense and ability to still bases will come in handy off the bench in close games.
I agree with the first part. I don’t believe they will try to put Mateo in a UT bench role. He needs to play everyday. He is improving with the bat. The reason he is so raw is that Oakland/SD brought him up and sat him. Sporadic playing time stunted his development. He is too good defensively at the most important position on the field. The bat has much more upside, too much to just put him on the bench. Guys like him do not do well in a reserve role. In his mind, he’s a SS, an excellent everyday SS. I think he’s right. He is too proud to take a bench role well at this point. They’ll have an absolute mess on their hands.
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5 hours ago, ScGO's said:
I like Lyles, but I'm having trouble imaging a competitor taking on his salary as a negative WAR player right now. Might as well have him eat some innings the remainder of the season. No one wants Odor. Urias is staying put; he has 4 more years of control and won't reach arbitration until 2024. If Mancini and Santander are moved, they will need Urias bat to help stabilize the line up will the young guys phase in.
My best guess is Mancini, Lopez, and Santander are moved if the price is right. With Lyles and Odor becoming free agents, trading these 3 now will actually open up some salary for 2023 to bring in a better FA SP?
No real argument with your points here. Let me clarify. I was just saying what I thought possible, not necessarily likely. I don’t think they are going to move Lyles just to move him. A guy like him certainly has value, even if it is in a role that he has with Baltimore. In a season with so many injuries to pitchers, there might be a suitor for him. Either way, I’m good with.
Odor may or may not be of any real value. Depends on the team, and if they need an everyday 2B, without much production, but has a penchant for the dramatic.
Urias isn’t necessarily going anywhere, but a suitor might want a guy that brings infield flexibility and has several years of control. I have liked him since we saw him in 2020. The only reason I really include him is he is hot right now and we have Henderson and Westburg and Vavra. They need to have room to come up. Someone has to go. To put him in a UT role is a loss of value, IMO. They are not going to bring up the prospects to sit them either. Something has to give. And really, trading him now would be selling lower than the value next year should bring. I think he is about to take off.
The last paragraph of your post, is a very sound guess to what they likely do. I would move Tate, if possible. I would only move Lopez if a great return.
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I can see moving Mancini, an impending FA. I can see moving Lyles, who has a somewhat pricey option. I can see moving Tate and Lopez. I can understand moving Odor, Urias, Santander and/or maybe even Mullins, who might be better to wait until the Winter.
I doubt that Elias trades all of those eight players at the deadline, but perhaps 3-5. I would not want to move Bautista, Perez, Mateo, Rutschman, Hays or Mountcastle.
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Mateo’s play in 2022 has been a major difference in this team. This team is exciting to watch, and he is a big part of it. Since his injury, he had struggled. It appears he is back to where he was before that collision.
I wanted him to start everyday at SS, but I had no idea he would be this good, defensively. Flaherty spoke very highly of him last year. I wanted to see what all of that was about, and he has brought us joy. I cannot think of a more physically gifted Oriole SS. I never saw Luis Aparicio, and only saw a few years of Mark Belanger. Miguel Tejada was not this quick and tooled up. Ripken, Bordick and Hardy were all great for their steadiness and offensive output, but the athleticism of Mateo is amazing.
I was also wrong about Odor. I believe he has had a vital role in many things, but he is clearly Mateo’s mentor. I see him talking with him frequently throughout a game. Odor is clearly far more valuable than playing above average defense. His toughness, competitiveness and clutch hitting have all been great. But his mentorship of Mateo may be his biggest contribution.
I wonder what is next for our infield. With the rise and impending promotions of Westburg, Henderson and Vavra, now what? Mateo, Urias and Odor have been fun to watch in 2022, whatever their Oriole fate.
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Do you think Elias will trade Mancini
in Orioles Talk
Posted
If Trey is traded, the return will be underwhelming if he is the only asset being moved in that deal. Maybe a future solid BP guy and a raw low A player would be about the most I expect at this point. They save $3 million and get to DH/1B others, like Nevin.