Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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1 hour ago, jrobb21613 said:
I'd move Urias as part of a package with a bullpen arm. Mateo's speed, defense and ability to still bases will come in handy off the bench in close games.
I agree with the first part. I don’t believe they will try to put Mateo in a UT bench role. He needs to play everyday. He is improving with the bat. The reason he is so raw is that Oakland/SD brought him up and sat him. Sporadic playing time stunted his development. He is too good defensively at the most important position on the field. The bat has much more upside, too much to just put him on the bench. Guys like him do not do well in a reserve role. In his mind, he’s a SS, an excellent everyday SS. I think he’s right. He is too proud to take a bench role well at this point. They’ll have an absolute mess on their hands.
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5 hours ago, ScGO's said:
I like Lyles, but I'm having trouble imaging a competitor taking on his salary as a negative WAR player right now. Might as well have him eat some innings the remainder of the season. No one wants Odor. Urias is staying put; he has 4 more years of control and won't reach arbitration until 2024. If Mancini and Santander are moved, they will need Urias bat to help stabilize the line up will the young guys phase in.
My best guess is Mancini, Lopez, and Santander are moved if the price is right. With Lyles and Odor becoming free agents, trading these 3 now will actually open up some salary for 2023 to bring in a better FA SP?
No real argument with your points here. Let me clarify. I was just saying what I thought possible, not necessarily likely. I don’t think they are going to move Lyles just to move him. A guy like him certainly has value, even if it is in a role that he has with Baltimore. In a season with so many injuries to pitchers, there might be a suitor for him. Either way, I’m good with.
Odor may or may not be of any real value. Depends on the team, and if they need an everyday 2B, without much production, but has a penchant for the dramatic.
Urias isn’t necessarily going anywhere, but a suitor might want a guy that brings infield flexibility and has several years of control. I have liked him since we saw him in 2020. The only reason I really include him is he is hot right now and we have Henderson and Westburg and Vavra. They need to have room to come up. Someone has to go. To put him in a UT role is a loss of value, IMO. They are not going to bring up the prospects to sit them either. Something has to give. And really, trading him now would be selling lower than the value next year should bring. I think he is about to take off.
The last paragraph of your post, is a very sound guess to what they likely do. I would move Tate, if possible. I would only move Lopez if a great return.
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I can see moving Mancini, an impending FA. I can see moving Lyles, who has a somewhat pricey option. I can see moving Tate and Lopez. I can understand moving Odor, Urias, Santander and/or maybe even Mullins, who might be better to wait until the Winter.
I doubt that Elias trades all of those eight players at the deadline, but perhaps 3-5. I would not want to move Bautista, Perez, Mateo, Rutschman, Hays or Mountcastle.
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Mateo’s play in 2022 has been a major difference in this team. This team is exciting to watch, and he is a big part of it. Since his injury, he had struggled. It appears he is back to where he was before that collision.
I wanted him to start everyday at SS, but I had no idea he would be this good, defensively. Flaherty spoke very highly of him last year. I wanted to see what all of that was about, and he has brought us joy. I cannot think of a more physically gifted Oriole SS. I never saw Luis Aparicio, and only saw a few years of Mark Belanger. Miguel Tejada was not this quick and tooled up. Ripken, Bordick and Hardy were all great for their steadiness and offensive output, but the athleticism of Mateo is amazing.
I was also wrong about Odor. I believe he has had a vital role in many things, but he is clearly Mateo’s mentor. I see him talking with him frequently throughout a game. Odor is clearly far more valuable than playing above average defense. His toughness, competitiveness and clutch hitting have all been great. But his mentorship of Mateo may be his biggest contribution.
I wonder what is next for our infield. With the rise and impending promotions of Westburg, Henderson and Vavra, now what? Mateo, Urias and Odor have been fun to watch in 2022, whatever their Oriole fate.
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12 hours ago, Chaka Garcia said:
It’s probably Coby Mayo (if he progresses) if Henderson or Westburg own 3rd base. Adley would backup on his rest days from catching.
You may be correct, but I hope not. I don’t have a lot of confidence he’ll remain at 3B, but I would hope he would be sent to a corner OF first. His arm is a weapon. He may end up at 1B, eventually.
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Great to see Joey producing at that level again. The shoulder surgery he had probably had more impact on him than most fans know. He undoubtedly lost some strength, and he could not work out or prepare for the season like he normally would. Lots of people ready to doubt him, write him off as a UT player, at best.
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32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Every draft is a risk. Most of them produce nothing for 80+% of your draft. If you absolutely love 2 players and feel they have high ceilings and you feel your development team fits with those guys, there is nothing wrong with doing this.
My personal issue with this is that Rocker is a gigantic question mark. If he’s healthy and his velocity is consistently back, he could end up being a steal at that bonus.
I agree that Rocker is a big question mark. Not just from his past injuries, but that delivery needs some work to alleviate concerns of future elbow and shoulder problems. However, they cannot say they did not know what they were up against. I do believe Rocker shared his medical records with teams.
I think it was a bold move. If it was the Orioles that did this, not picking after 1-3 until the fourth round, I would be good with it. The handling of pitchers in this organization gives me more confidence that the arms would be developed properly. And yet there would still be a higher probability that Rocker never makes it near his ceiling. The Rangers are not known for their pitcher development. Maybe they are changing things down there, but I don’t see it as a good move for them. But it’s bold, for sure. They got two high upside first round picks, and a ton of risk.
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2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
It'll be a fun follow the rest of the month. I don't care how bad the Age-21 season was; if thru Age-20 you established yourself as a Brooks Lee-level polished NCAA infielder, and Elias can sell you on "Orioles school" at that rate, it'd be crazy.
They aren't allowed to give Major League contracts anymore, are they?
Absolutely. We’ll see what happens. The rehab of his shoulder injury likely was an issue for him. Sell him on getting healthy and mashing in Delmarva in 2023.
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I cannot imagine that the Orioles have $1 million to give him. They will likely have a few hundred thousand to throw at him. They will sit down with him and show him their development plan for him. They will tell him how they will help him make the most of his tools, and why he should begin playing professional baseball right now instead of going to LSU and playing another season of college. I would not bet against Mike Elias on this. I am not saying it is going to get done, but I spoke to someone in the industry who said that Mike Elias is very persuasive in these kinds of situation.
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42 minutes ago, paulcoates said:
Did this guy just start pitching? A 7 footer should throw harder than 90.
I’m good with that velo. He releases the ball from about 52 feet from the plate, so it looks like 110 mph. I’m exaggerating a little, but can you imagine the elbows and knee caps coming at you, and the downhill plane? Teach him a bit of a cross fire delivery and he’ll be coming at the batter from a ridiculous angle. If he’s athletic and can repeat that delivery, we’ll see if he can be consistent with something with spin.
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That is easy hoppy cheddar! If only they can sign him and teach him a slider. Wow…
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He had left shoulder surgery in 2021, I think. So, there is some thought that was an issue. Kind of like our own Joey Ortiz. Switch hitter with some upside. Depends on his number and if he is ready to move on to the pro game.
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17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I agree. I like those 2 arms. I’m sure there is a scenario where you could have had both of them, Holliday, Beavers and Porter. after that, I don’t really care what you can put together. Can you still have Wagner or Fabian? Not sure.
Yeah, those three would be around $14 million. That leaves about $3.5 million for the rest, if my rough math is close, for the remaining nine picks in the first ten rounds.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I would easily trade Porter for our draft picks in rounds 4-10 and probably could throw Fabian and maybe even Wagner in there too.
Caveat being that you really like Porter.
Yeah, me too. I think we are at the point where it is time to make plays like that. If nothing else, it would be nice for the fan base to get excited about a move like that. But that is not in the plan for Elias, apparently. I wonder how much the Aiken kid stung him going forward.
Elias must be adding more depth to replace those he is about to promote or trade. I know nothing about Porter beyond the public info, and how he relates to Sig’s model. Or how Elias’ interview with him went. Or maybe Porter said he didn’t want to come to Baltimore. Who knows?
Maybe they like McLean that much as well. I mean, beyond the hype and polish relative to age and experience, McLean is a power arm and a tremendous competitor. Raw clay to put into the hands of their PD peeps. The Auburn kid has me intrigued too.
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1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:
Glad we got a big Johnson
First time?
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1 hour ago, Sydnor said:
To be 100% clear, I think that the organization is in significantly better shape under Elias than the previous regime and I’m not saying that I would take Rajsich over Elias’ crew. I was only saying that I would like a few more high school swings notwithstanding that college players can also be upside swings.
When you say you can’t find fault in Stowers, Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz, and Mayo, I can’t either, and 3/5 were high school players. The staff is good at identifying high school players! I also wonder if their hands are a bit tied because ownership won’t approve spending the 5% overage.
With respect to Rajsich he wasn’t perfect, and you identified some of his hits. Others included Mountcastle and Hader, and college players like Mancini, Hays, and Mullins. I thought he did pretty well despite forfeited picks and the interference you identified. But again, I’m happy with Elias and his team, and wasn’t trying to say I was wish he was still running the draft.
I’m sure what @owknowssaid about college players being more likely to have a 3 year career is true. What does a three year career mean? Does it mean they produced replacement level or better production?
I’m not saying it’s wrong to look at the draft that way, just that you can look at it differently. One can make a number of arguments based on career WAR, prospect lists, etc. For example, with respect to Fangraphs current Top 100, 42 were drafted out of high school players, 28 were international signings, and 30 were drafted out of college or JUCO.
I also don’t disagree that he can’t afford to miss on high expenditures. I don’t know what the numbers are for the players selected, but I would just like to see one more high school player rather than a physically maxed out college performer in the 7th because a 3 year below replacement level career from a 7th rounder is less valuable to me than taking one shot on finding a Hader. I have no problem with a whiff on Willems (though I think it’s way too early to write him off) because they took a shot.
In conclusion, I have no problem with the draft. They know more than me. I hope the draft has good results. I think they’re good at drafting high school players and I’d rather take a swing on a high school player than Ryan Higgins or Johnny Rizer.
Some of what I wrote there was not entirely directed at you. I was being lazy. I think we are essentially on the same page. I want those kinds of prospects too. Elias' process obviously does not like HS pitchers. Very picky on HS hitters, so far so good. I too have not given up on Willems, but not a great start for him. He needs to mature and take things seriously.
Fangraphs having that many HS players in the top 100 does not surprise me. A few of them (Rodriguez, Henderson, DL and Mayo) are Orioles, two were picked by Elias. Soon, they can add Jackson Holliday. When Elilas took over, this organization lacked athletic prospects up the middle. We now have them in abundance. I think his idea is to mitigate risk by developing those he can to trade for the pitchers he wants after they show they are legit.
As a side note, I looked but could not locate an article I read a few years ago. IIRC, I believe HS players were outnumbered by college guys in MLB, overall. I am not great with search engines, unfortunately. But, to your point, I believe more of the star players were not college guys. I wonder what effect COVID will have overall on that, along with the 20 round draft.
I think Elias is still looking to stock quality depth in his inventory. He is going to have to make some moves soon to get the pitching he needs, and this draft is to restock the system behind those moves. At least he did not play it safe and take Lee or Berry. Holliday was a pretty big HS play.
Until we know more about the guys he picked, hard to say they did or did not go with high upside. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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12 minutes ago, Sydnor said:I agree with this. I think Beavers and Wagner are almost assuredly over slot.
I like high school players. Mike doesn’t (I understand that Holliday is from high school, but 1/10 in the last two drafts shows me that their model doesn’t like them and/or that he’s scared of the risk despite his best picks being Gunnar, Hernaiz, and Mayo). I’ve moved on and hope that the guys he drafts do well (while missing the Gary Rajsich days of upside plays).
I don’t know about Beavers or Wagner being over, but likely at least slot. I suspect that McLean is over and probably Cheney. Maybe Hodo gets a little over his slot too. I really don’t know, kinda spit balling here.
Rajsich has some good draft picks, and his share of poor ones too. Hard to know which were dictated to him by ownership, DD or Buck…or Brady and whomever else. I think he was forced to take some guys to fill needs at the ML level. Quick moving relievers for DD, and Grenier has Buck’s fingerprints all over it. So, to be fair to Gary, he hit on Grayson, DL, Drew Rom and a few others like maybe Hanifee. I certainly do not think Akin and Lowther were great picks.
My counter to this is that some of the college guys taken by Elias are and have been upside plays. Elias clearly believes in his player development and scouts. He looks for those who fit his model and are coachable. He looks for those who have significant athleticism and aptitude for unrealized value at lower costs. Elias believes in his coaches and physical trainers at an extreme level. We’ll see if they are as good as he thinks. I’m not super high on Hudson Haskin or Servideo. But I cannot find fault with Stowers, Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz and Mayo. Jury is still out on Kjerstad just yet, but it looks great so far. Cowser and Norby are looking so much better now. I suspect Ortiz is better than he has showed. I think his shoulder surgery hampered his preparation for this year.
If your issues are with upside pitchers, no argument. I wanted Brock Porter with 3-81. I guess they think grabbing McLean and Cheney were better than only getting Porter. IDK. Elias will never tell us, but a lot of the over slot HS pitchers fizzle out. Most of them, in fact. It’s a huge gamble, and that just isn’t Elias.
We see the unicorn out there as the sexy pick, but the truth is we just don’t know what went into that decision. And, we don’t know what tomorrow brings either. He obviously prefers to acquire high end pitching in ways other than drafting HS kids with premium money demands. I can’t find fault with that. I want to, but I just can’t. He is the GM in Baltimore, not Boston, NY or LA. He cannot afford to miss right now on big expenditures.
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28 minutes ago, oldfan said:
Plenty of high ranked HS players there to be had, O's have plenty of money left to pick up a couple of them.
I hope so, but I’m not so sure. We assume that there are several under slot guys, but there are some possible over slot types already. Some sophomores with options. I just don’t know.
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10 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:
So he's an OF version of Cadyn Grenier?
No
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8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
You mean the next college outfielder we take?
We’ll see. I just don’t know. Depends on what they sign the first four for.
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56 minutes ago, LookinUp said:
The hopeful fan/optimist should pay attention to this post. I don't know how true it is, but it at least gives room for hope.
Some programs teach hitting better than others. Some teach pitching, defense, whatever. The O's might have seen a very talented kid who lost his way in a program that doesn't teach hitting very well.
I don't know how I feel about this pick, but generally speaking I like the idea of targeting talented kids who went to programs that couldn't optimize their talent. The idea is you're buying low. We can only hope.
The Orioles like what tools he has. They see him as a guy they can help. I’ve know several kids at UF over the last several years. Some were supposed to be first round talents. They regressed.
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8 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:
I'm just curious as to why you feel the hit tool will improve from college to pro ball? This is the pick I like the least because of the hitting stats and am interested to learn more about what you've seen that makes you believe he'll get better against tougher competition. (and definitely not challenging your view and opinion, I'm scouting stat lines and video clips and have never seen him play in person, so I'm just genuinely curious).
When he gets to the organization, he’ll have some adjustments in mechanics and approach. The hands and coordination are there. Maybe there are some things with pitch recognition.
He’s coachable, and he wants to be great.
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I’ve seen him a lot for six years now. Excellent defender. The hit tool will be better as a pro. UF has had several very good prospects lose their way recently with the bat. Fabian enrolled early, so he’s just 21. Hard working competitive kid.
The next pick will tell us a lot. Reserving my thoughts until then.
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A big litmus test of the player development group. I like the Jayson Werth comp as far as he moves. If he hits like Tucker, awesome. But that swing has to be reworked completely.
Jorge Mateo
in Orioles Talk
Posted
For now, yes sir. Not sure how the Orioles see it, but that’s my opinion. He knows he is electric and in his prime years. He’s mercurial in his emotions. I see it when a called strike he disagrees with.
I have not seen Henderson or Westburg much at SS, being completely honest. I do think it will be difficult for either to be better defensively than Mateo right now. Ideally, let Mateo keep improving at SS, then move him when someone makes him expendable. Whomever that is. With all of the young pitchers we are ushering in, I believe there is great value in turning as many outs into outs as possible.
Elias and Hyde may feel differently, but that is my inflation-depreciated $.02.