Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
https://www.mlb.com/video/termarr-johnson-joins-combine-show
I listened to the interview twice. I guess you can hear what you want. They compared him to Jose Ramirez and Termarr said Ramirez played with ease. When they compared his hitting to Cano Termarr said he liked to make it look easy. The words laid back were never used. I guess you could make that connection but to me laid back suggests lack of energy and effort. If that were the case, it's hard to believe you wouldn't see that in reports. I've also seen him described with quick footwork and a quick first step. Whatever. I actually agree with CoC. I have no problem with his size or the reports concerning his defense (with a average being the worst). I'm just skeptical of the hit tool actually being elite. As for losing a step or slowing down at 25, that seems like a totally arbitrary number based on ...... ?
It was a different interview with Harold and another former player, maybe Adam Jones or Cliff Floyd. It was on the last day of the combine. I watched it live. I could not find it on YouTube or MLB. Not sure why it isn’t there, but I guess not all of the interviews make it there. Not a big deal.
Look, I just do not think he would be a good pick at 1-1. You, and CoC, agree with that as you have said. We have different reasons. I have my questions about him based on what I see, and read. I never said anyone is stupid, or whatever for valuing him differently. I’m not arguing with anyone here, and I remain civil and respectful. We disagree, and that is allowed.
If he is the pick, I will support him. And hope I am wrong. The guy is built like an SEC running back. The only 2B I can remember with that thicker build is Howie Kendrick. There are good reasons why, generally speaking, as I have stated previously.
All of the gurus like Law and Callis and the BA guys said Nick Madrigal, the #4 overall pick in 2018 was a great prospect too. He’s 5-08 175. They sometimes get it wrong.
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7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
In today's game of strikeouts and launch angles how many more balls do you really think a "twitchy" defender at second is going to get to over an "average" defender?
Not enough to make up the difference between a 70 grade bat and your average bat at 2B that's for sure.
Also I'm not sure what you mean by "laid back guy" but it sounds insulting. It kinda sounds like you are calling him lazy.
Also I just want to state, again, I'm not advocating for the kid. I don't buy that the bat is that special.
How many double plays have we turned this year? How many turned at 2B? How many times has Roogie or Mateo made a play on a tough chance to get an out to get a pitcher out of an inning? Fairly often to my recollection.
The pitching is changing to more 2 seamers, more sinkers than in recent years. I am out tonight, so I am not going to research the actual numbers. For now, just worthless anecdotal observations. Offense is supposed to be down this year, from what I have seen. And infield defense has been atrocious around the league.
Twitchy is about quickness, no matter what any other posters say, it matters. It is what it is. Quick movement of hands and feet matter. Johnson is not that at 195 pounds. He just isn’t. I don’t need anyone to tell me that. He, himself, in an interview with Harold Reynolds at the combine admitted he plays laid back, in the mold of Cano, according to Reynolds. Not an insult, just an honest observation by more than just me. From Termarr himself. He talked about the criticism that he plays nonchalant. They said it’s because he makes plays look easy. I don’t see that, but I’m not going to disparage others for their opinions.
Look, I am not a fan of picking him at 1-1. He may be a fine hitter, but I outlined why I would not take him for the Orioles. When he is about 25 or so, I think he slows down quite a bit. He’s going to get thicker, not thinner. He’s going to get slower, laterally. My opinion, but I don’t get paid for my opinions. So, what could I possibly know? In 5-7 years, you and others can tell me how wrong I was. I will gladly accept it. Until then, I guess we’ll see.
Edit: I found an article supporting you, Corn, on the lesser GB rate.
Corn, you are correct on that. I do believe it is changing as the FB usage is going down and there are more sliders and other off speed pitches than FB. Ben McDonald and Jim Palmer have spoken about it recently. The usage of 2S and sinkers are increasing because hitters have adjusted to high spin 4S up in the zone.
I watched a game a few days ago, the Brewers and White Sox, I believe. The commentators were saying the same thing. That game was an exhibit of the bad infield defense I was speaking of. Numerous misplays that were not all errors, but the miscues cost the pitchers several outs and runs scored.
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4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:Odor is the guy that assaulted someone on National Television right?
I'd rather the team not emulate that behavior even if a lot of folks here thought his action laudable.
Odor defended himself, plain and simple. That’s what men do, when they have to. He was just quicker than Joey Bats. He literally beat him to the punch. Bautista was drawing back to strike him with a closed right fist and Roogie sent it first. Roogie was a GG boxer as a kid. He is not some thug.
He did not hit him because of the slide, which was way late and meant to take Odor out in retaliation for getting plunked, which was in retaliation for his bat flip antics. Roogie took exception to the slide and they had words. Bautista was the instigator here.
Being better doesn’t make him the bad guy here.
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I think some teams can get by with an average-ish defensive player at 2B, if the player makes all of the plays they should. Hardy did not have great range toward the end of his career, but he turned outs into outs. He was always in the right position. Odor has been our best 2B defender in a good while. He turns the DP as well as anyone I can remember since maybe Alomar. I suppose Roberts wasn’t bad either. There is a lot of value in that for our pitchers.
However, I think there is a move toward better, more dynamic, defenders in the Orioles system. Especially up the middle. With the philosophy of throwing more strikes, letting the stuff play in the middle of the zone and working deeper into the games, they need plays made. That said, the Orioles have Westburg and Henderson coming up. One may end up at SS or 2B in the shorter term. Henderson is twitchier, while Westburg is more solid. But they weren’t 1-1 picks either.
For me, IMO, the strength of a good team is up the middle defenders. If I have doubts about a guy’s range, arm, feet and quickness, I don’t want them at 2B. Some body types project better than others. Termarr has a nice swing, sure. But at 5’-08” 195 lbs., that doesn’t project well for an infielder. The tools don’t appear to suggest a move to CF or RF. LF in Baltimore is now cavernous. I just don’t see picking him at 1–1. Not saying he is a bad player, just not what I would do.
I would rather have an excellent twitchy defender with average offense at 2B, who brings energy everyday, than a more laid back guy like Termarr. He may win some silver sluggers, but how many runs would a better defender have prevented? How many outs would a better defender save and allow a pitcher to go deeper? I don’t want Grayson and DL having to get 4-5 outs in an inning.
If they take him, I’ll support him. But it’s an awfully narrow profile for an organization that emphasizes positional flexibility.
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6 minutes ago, waroriole said:
A college bat also fits in with the timeline of contention we’re looking at. Could conceivably be on the OD ‘24 roster. We don’t have another high value IF outside of Gunnar and Westburg, so he would provide that too.
Outside of Jones, he might be my preferred choice at 1:1. Of course, like you said, you need to use the assumed savings you’ll get from drafting him first.
I agree. I would only add that we could use some younger talent that lies outside the immediate window to help sustain or even lengthen the competitive window. The first group will get expensive, and we can move some of them, while having some continuity.
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
You don't?
I hope they barely miss the playoff this year and then win the new draft lottery and pick 1-1 next year.
How funny would that be?
I forgot all about that.
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Excited: Jones, Green
Happy: Holliday, Lee
Support: anyone else
If it is Jones or Green, that means to me that Elias and staff believe they can develop that pick into a star. And they do believe in their ability to do it. This is a bit risky for Elias and Sig. To pick these kinds of guys would mean they really trust their process. Green might offer some bonus savings as well.
Holliday and Lee will likely still be fine MLB players. A little lower ceiling, maybe a higher floor. I think they are more likely picks than Jones and Green.
If its any other pick, I will support them. Doesn’t mean I love the pick, but I will support them. It will likely be a fine player, but a team only picks 1-1 so many times. I hope they never pick 1-1 again in my lifetime. No Griffey or ARod this year, but this pick is very important.
Overall, I think they’ll take one of the first four listed. If they do go more of a depth approach, this board will implode, as will Orioles Twitter. It’ll be fun to watch.
They do need the depth to make trades to acquire additional championship level pitching. But, like some, I think they can take Druw Jones, pay him slot (or just below), and manipulate the other picks to add value in various scenarios. They can under slot from the third round on down, for instance, if they take a guy like Sam Horn, RHP/QB prospect out of Georgia, or LHP Noah Shultz, the 6’-09” guy committed to Vandy. They’d get some higher end guys early and then take some less-refined or under-valued guys after that. Maybe a run on senior pitching, or an interesting projectable guy who COVID stunted their growth process.
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32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I believe in common sense. He isn’t going to go to college, risk injury, put off free agency long term, etc…over 300k. I’m more than fine to die on that sword and if that makes me the “smartest guy in the room”, so be it. I’m good with that.
Zero chance he doesn’t sign that deal.
I don’t know, but I don’t believe we’ll find out if you’re right on him. If Jones doesn’t agree pre-draft to what they want, I doubt they draft him.
I generally agree with you on this, though. But Jones has money, and the Dbacks will mortgage some of their top picks to take Jones, supposedly. Boras will get the best deal for his guys.
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This team is a lot of fun to watch, absolutely. Overachieving at the moment, I think. Pretty optimistic to expect this group to stay healthy and keep up the this type of play.
Is the goal to simply “contend?” Are we going to trade top 10-20 prospects for players or pitchers for us to maybe win a wildcard spot? I’d rather go hard at winning it all, or trade the guys who are not on the next World Series team. I think it unwise to get caught in between.
Trey, for as much as we fans love the guy, is expendable. Santander also. I can see keeping Lopez or Tate, but not both, if there is value there in a trade. Maybe we add a vet for another team’s salary relief, though I doubt they will add much salary.
Our starters right now: Wells, Lyles, Kremer, Watkins and Voth. Wells is supposed to be slowed down, or maybe shut down at some point. Harvey likely comes up soon. So, who is your playoff rotation? This group does not inspire me in a playoff series. Maybe I’m wrong.
I think they should stay the course. Fans will be pissed, so be it. The taste of winning should not cloud the soundness of judgement.
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According to Jim Callis and Sam Dykstra on their podcast, Kumar had shoulder surgery in September 2021. Apparently, it was of a more minor nature, a scope. Though they did point out there is no such thing as minor shoulder surgery. They said the news came out Saturday night and they have released the records. Interesting. I don’t think he makes it to 33.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
Andruw Jones,Mike Cameron and Devon White are others who come to mind.
Absolutely, so many really good CF’s over the last 40 or so years.
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3 hours ago, baltfan said:
Grayson had a big velo bump his senior year.
I saw Grayson in his HS senior summer. I believe he was 91-93, maybe touched 94. He was a bit of a soft body. His bump was a few (2-3) MPH, but the secondaries and body shape took big jumps. The mechanics were more repeatable. He wasn’t throwing 100 until last year.
I may be wrong, but I think Bitsko jumped about 8-10 mph. It’s really about the effort in the delivery. Grayson shoves 100 now and it’s easy.
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Just now, NCRaven said:
Based on this, you can write Green’s name on one of those slips of paper and throw it in the hat too.
I don’t know, pal. We can build a case either way. I liked an interview I saw on MLB network with he and his pops. I think it all comes down to intangibles and how well the pick will receive the instruction for Elias on this pick.
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1 hour ago, Just Regular said:
17 year olds might be able to throw 100, but maybe they shouldn't...
I am always leery of guys like him. IIRC, he had a large velo bump shortly before the draft. The whole “throw as hard as you can” on every pitch though for HS kids is a terrible idea, IMO, for their long term career. I mean, he got life-changing bonus $$, but he may never be right again.
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56 minutes ago, NCRaven said:
Every report I've seen on Green uses some form of the phrase "swing and miss in his game." That scares the bejeezus out of me when you're picking 1:1. Green would be #5 on my list of 5 that we keep seeing for Elias. Anyone you take at #1 has risk, there are few perfect draft picks. But there's something to be said for some level of bust aversion.
That talk has been somewhat mitigated this Spring, from many things I have read. Recently, and I think it was Callis and/or Mayo on their podcast, it has been said that there will be some swing and miss, but that it is ok because of the enormous damage he will do.
The reason Elias may like him is if they feel their PD folks can help him limit that even further. Whether it is mechanical or mental, or both. The next “flagship” guy, maybe. Not saying they will, or should take him.
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The put him on the IL for shoulder inflammation today.
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5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Flexing? If you consider asking you to backup something you said, then I'm guilty. I respect the truth. You should too.
Ok
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4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
You know what they say. Thou doth protest too much! Or something like that.
You should stop. We are done. Your flexing online is asinine. Harassment is a bad thing, and sorta against the rules. Have some respect for your fellow posters here. And yourself.
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Just now, RZNJ said:
I guess that means we won't be seeing those writeups?
Yep, because I don’t need to prove anything to you. This is over a half grade. Have a nice day.
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Just now, Can_of_corn said:
I'm only worried about what a player does during the period he would be under team control.
If he falls off Jason Heyward style after that, I don't care.
Altuve certainly provided a ton of value in that time period.
As for not being draft eligible, that would be why I said, "Obviously he wasn't draft eligible".
I thought the concern was with players of a certain height not U.S. players of a certain height? That seems kinda sketchy....
As for the video, I think almost every player cheats whenever they think they can get away with it. I don't think the Astros were alone and we have history of teams doing similar stuff decades ago.
I don’t disagree. I asked the question originally to point out the names I figured would come up. I then pointed to their profiles as more twitchy and athletic. That they played with much more juice or energy. It’s pretty clear what I wrote and what my point was. If you want to dissect each little part, I’m out on that as well.
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Just now, RZNJ said:
I asked you about how you came to the conclusion that a best case scenario for Johnson is below average defensively at 2B and the above was your response. Now, I said I respected your opinion and enjoyed your posts but I'm not going to let that slide and each post you've made since then is defensive and a bit much.
Pretty much every writeup doesn't echo that and I don't care how many lines you read between. You said it would take a long time to go back and find the sources. Is NEVER considered a long time? You'll never find anything that says a best case scenario is below average defense because it doesn't exist. It's complete BS.
Now, if your opinion is that he'll be below average defensively, that's fine. If you want to claim it's you being able to read between the lines and see something no one else can see, more power to you. We aren't arguing over a half grade. We are arguing over accuracy and you saying almost every writeup you've read echoes that. They don't echo it. You made it up. Possibly, like another poster here, you though you read something and you were mistaken. You've had plenty of time to own up to that mistake.
Now you claim this is just my thing. I have never gone after you for anything ever before that I can remember. Except for about 3 posters, I don't bust too many chops UNLESS I see somebody posting something and go "where did that come from?". In this case, it came out of thin air. You can own up to it or not. Whether Johns is or becomes below average defensively is not the point anymore. The point is that anyone who has read the infinite amount of information on this draft has seen "pretty much every writeup" you've seen does not echo your opinion.
Now, I think you're an excellent poster and I know you didn't post for a few days. I'd hate to see that happen again. I really do enjoy your posts and I'd consider you more expert than most of the people on here. Just don't try to BS me.
Ok. We’re done.
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33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Hey, Termarr scares me as well. I've stated many times that I have reservations about over hype on the hit tool. Keith Law's take just confirmed some fears I had and YET Law has him as the 3rd best prospect in the whole draft. These guys (Law/McDaniel/Callis/Mayo) are supposed to either know more than us or be connected to people who are supposed to know more than us.
And they’re never wrong? They miss every year. Take a moment and look back on similar players through just the past 10 years. Media darlings doing back flips in the draft studio and so on. Those guys were big tools as well. Many were even projectable, Johnson is not. Not at all.
RZ, I know your stance on him. These smallish guys are a tough profile. We’ve talked this to death, no?
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Not sure what you even mean here?
For the 6+ years of team control Altuve had:
Three batting titles.
Five All-star appearances.
Four Silver Sluggers (at 2B).
An MVP.
Three other top 20 finishes in MVP voting.
A ring.
How in the world is not that worthy of going 1-1?
He was an UDFA, so ineligible for my question. However, great career, sure. He did cheat with video for his best years, but ok, discounting that as well. So, let’s say he was drafted within the last 15 years. Would he be one of the best 15 players in MLB? Not for me, but he certainly would be not terribly far away. I see he is for you. Cool.
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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:
MLB's writeup on Johnson which ANYONE can read.
A shortstop in high school, Johnson will change positions as a pro because his quickness and arm are more average than plus. His hands work well in the field as well as at the plate and he profiles best at second base, where he should be at least a solid defender. He committed to Arizona State in May.
Look, the pipeline write ups are kinda fluffy, especially with certain top guys. Some of these write ups have things to read between the lines.
You took a very small part of what I wrote, my opinion, and made it into a big nothing burger over a half grade. I have read it. I’m not going to look any further, this is a waste of my time. Call me out anytime, it’s what you and a few others enjoy. Carry on.
I have my opinions based on what I have done and people I’ve learned from. I’m not a scout, no. I did coach with some. I’m nobody in particular, in fact. Just some guy who spent most of my free time coaching kids to young men, some to a higher level, for the past 16 years. I read/listen to what the national pundits say. Some are on point, IMO, and some are full of hyperbole.
The Johnson kid is deserving of being in the top 10, sure. A lofty hit tool does that, especially when the signing number isn’t particularly high. He’s got a great attitude, it seems, and he’s motivated to begin his pro career. He is being mocked to fall into the bottom of the top 10 as we get closer, though early mocks aren’t all that accurate or meaningful.
Other smallish MIF’s have had great 70 hit tools and recently got hyped into the top half of the first round or higher. Madrigal and Hiura were both top 10 picks, I believe. There was another that escapes me who was fairly high up and has not been worthy. That concerns me. Each individual is a separate case, sure. But the odds are the odds with his profile. We could argue all day about if these guys could have prospered in a different player development system or not.
Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?
in O's Amateur Draft and International Signings
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I do not believe I have ever said he was too short. I have pointed to his body type/build. He’s a thick dude. He is built like a RB. Very think legs. Infielders are generally more lithe or wiry. That is all I was saying.
Scouts, Front Office guys, and draft writers are wrong a lot, absolutely, regardless of what the body type is. I’m wrong a lot more than them, but my opinions are based on my experiences like everyone. I just cannot think of another quality major league 2B with a thick build like Johnson. Maybe he’ll be the first one like that.