Jammer7
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50 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Let's just stop here, ok? You are derailing this thread with whatever issues you have about this subject. Let's stay on baseball. Thanks.
I just saw this. I apologize for my last post.
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3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:Fentanyl ultimately killed Skaggs but he was apparently using all kinds of stuff. Harvey admitted to giving him Percocet. His admission should be enough to charge him for the distribution. So I’m not sure why he hasn’t been charged. It may have something to do with the statute of limitations is California. You have to assume that Skaggs took something given to him by Harvey at some point. Not doing so would be naive to say the least.
I know drug sharing is illegal and agree that it does happen frequently. But, do you think that makes it ok?
Solid? LOL ….he was a below replacement level pitcher with a 6.27 ERA. You can get 127 innings of that production from any number of scrap heap or AAAA pitchers that they could’ve picked up. Unless you plan was to lose and a guy like Harvey was certainly a key contributor in that endeavor.
A washed up pitcher with baggage …. No thanks
I won’t give Elias a pass on Harvey in any way, shape, or form. He picked up a washed up pitcher who is guilty by his own admission of a crime.
Finally, Did he make more sense than Cueto? The answer is an emphatic no unless you are trying to lose. I believe Elias went into this season intending on tanking again but the team has by all accounts exceeded expectations despite still being a sub 500 team.
The intent of distribution laws is not applicable here. Matt Harvey was not dealing/distributing prescription drugs, based on the testimony. Simply giving someone a pill or two is not akin to being a dealer, who does this for profit or in furtherance of a criminal organization’s profit. Again, it’s a false narrative.
I am going to out myself here. I retire today, after more than 28 years as a law enforcement officer. I worked in drug enforcement for many years for a large agency in Florida, often assigned to task forces and such. So, I do have just a little background here. And no, I do not condone his sharing prescription drugs. I am just giving you context of what I have seen. The courts generally do not want those kinds of cases involving the common citizen, and they generally get rid of them with little consequence.
Please, do not tell me about assumptions that Skaggs ingested anything from Harvey. There is no evidence, testimonial or otherwise, that indicates that. Therefore, it does not exist.
When I referred to Matt as a solid vet, it had to do with his professional attitude, work ethic and demeanor. The example he set, according to everything I have read, was excellent. Let’s face it, you’re not wrong about the numbers, but there was a lot to like as well. The starts after the break were pretty good, then the injury. His four July starts we’re very good, 3-1, 2.45 era, 22 IP, 19 H, 14K, 2BB, .95 WHIP, .229 BA against. Overall, according to Fangraphs, his FIP/xFIP was 4.6/4.81 and he had 1.9 WAR. The guy is fighting his health issues every day. He is hungry to prove himself again. A low cost bet on a very competitive guy, I have no problem with that at all.
He is cheap, and a guy that if he does nothing, it is of no consequence. Matt is a known quantity to them. Cueto is such a good veteran option for a contender, and costs a good bit more. There were other options, and I am sure Elias pursued many that turned him down. That is the thing many forget, the player has to actually want to come here.
The opioid crisis in this country, and around the world, is killing people every day. According to the US Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), 130 people die each day to an opioid overdose. According to the CDC, in 2020, “prescription” opioids accounted for 44 deaths each day. This stuff makes “crack” and meth look like child’s play. I have seen far too much death from this from all walks of life.
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8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:
I don’t get the Elias love affair with Harvey. He’s washed up to say the very least and was involved in drugs that killed a teammate
As far as I have read, the few pills he gave the deceased player we’re not used and did not, in any way, contribute to his death. That is a false narrative. Giving/sharing with someone prescription scheduled drugs is a crime, yes. He is guilty of that, but has not been charged with a crime like the vast majority of the people in the world who share their prescriptions with other people. If you think this doesn’t happen all over the place, in all walks of life, you are mistaken. I am not condoning his actions, but it happens a lot.
Someone please correct me if I am mistaken about the facts of this case. Provide a link as well. Otherwise, can we please stop this.
Whatever his past with the Mets, he was a solid vet for us last year.
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7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Bats of the past were often heavier, but I don't think they were any harder. Roger Maris once participated in an experiment where he took batting practice with a number of bats of different weights, and there was hardly any difference in how far he could hit the ball. F=ma. If the mass of the bat is larger it makes the bat harder to accelerate, and it appears that there is little or no advantage (in terms of batted ball distances) to swinging a 40+ ounce bat.
Alan Nathan has a trajectory calculator spreadsheet on his site. Playing around with that it's difficult to see how anyone ever hit a ball 550, 600 or more feet. Statcast tells us that the hardest hit ball out of thousands so far in 2022 went 119 mph off the bat. The longest I can get out of a 119 mph ball at sea level is 560 feet, and that's with optimal launch angle, 105 degree temperature, and a 25 mph tailwind. At 80 degrees Fahrenheit with a 5 mph tailwind and 119 mph exit velocity we're under 500' distance. Statcast says the longest HR hit in 2002 is 496'.
The only way oldtimers hit 550+ foot homers would be:
1) Some of the balls were much livelier and/or had far less drag.
2) The players were far stronger.
3) The home runs were not measured to the point of impact, or likely point of impact without stands, but to where they stopped rolling. Mantle's famous 565' shot at Griffith Stadium probably was under 500' on the fly then rolled the rest of the way. Put Judge or Stanton in a big open field and they could hit a ball that rolls 600' or more*.
I think 1) is possible. That quality control was very poor in the past and some balls were quite lively. 2) is simply not true. 3) Is very likely.
Circling back to the original point, I think it's theoretically possible that the occasional ball in 1960 was hit as hard or harder than the hardest balls today. But that the average exit velocity was quite a bit lower.
* When I was a teenager we used to play baseball in the street in front of my house. There was a bit of a hill to one side of my house, and on the other side the street sloped gradually down past about 5-6 houses. Another kid, Keith, was a pretty good high school player. One time he hit a moon shot that got to the top of the hill, then rolled all the way down the other side. If each yard was about 150' wide his homer went over 800'. Probably the longest homer I've ever seen.
A very good read. Thanks for that!
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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:
If you believe some of the (mostly anecdotal) reports of exceptionally long home runs from Ruth, Mantle, Josh Gibson, etc at least some exit velocities had to be FAR higher than today. It's physics, if you believe that Ruth once hit a 690 foot homer it had to have left the bat at 140 mph or something. Which is why I take all those stories with several dump trucks full of salt.
My guess is that the average exit velocity 75 or 100+ years ago was much lower than today. Willie Keeler's average exit velocity was probably like 68 mph.
Yeah, it’s all anecdotal. Obviously we’ll never know. Based on the ball construction, the consistency of their construction today vs. then, pitch velocity and player strength, I suspect today the ball travels at much greater velocity. Then again, the bats the players swung years ago were likely a much harder wood and were generally heavier. The fences were much further back 100 years ago as well. I honestly don’t know what to think.
The earliest discussion of what amounts to the term “launch angle,” that I am aware, was attributed to Ted Williams. It was likely around before him, but I am not the historian that you are.
I am not taking anything away from the greatness of the players before the modern era. They were/are deservedly celebrated. But some of the old guys saying the players were better in their era, I hear that in many walks of life. I try not to be that guy in the occupational world that I live in. However, I suppose it is the natural order of things.
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33 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Well, I agree with this too. A lot of dives and slides probably aren’t necessary. I think slides are often used because it’s an easier catch from down low compared to reaching down, if you know how to manage your slide.
Yep, keeping their head behind the ball makes the catch easier.
I never saw Paul Blair in his prime. But I have seen Griffey, Buxton, Edmonds, Trout, Kenny Lofton, Otis Nixon, Kirby Puckett, Bernie Williams, Eric Davis, Grady Sizemore, etc…Hard to compare players from different eras. The balls were different, the bats, the lights, and the players today are jacked. I would love to know the exit velocities of the balls then and now.
I don’t think Mullins is a gold glove guy. Maybe in the class of a Bumbry? We are lucky to have him, don’t get me wrong. OTOH, I would not be saddened to see him moved in the right deal.
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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:
I agree on the second part. It's easier to come in than to go back and a single isn't as bad as an extra base hit. I've never heard of any outfielder being taught to take a step back on contact. If you can read the ball off the bat (not that it's easy) you go in if that's the read. Taking a step back is going to cost you .5 second (just guessing). The CF who reads the ball off the bat doesn't need to take that step back. Taking a step back is just a guess that the ball is going over your head or in Mullin's case just not being able to read the ball correctly.
Yeah, I understand what you’re saying. But the ball at an OF is very hard to get a depth read. Ask any high level OF, it’s true. The sound of the bat and the intensity of the swing can fool the player. What someone pointed out was that he was better going sideways. I have not seen the OAA for other CF’s, but I would bet that most are better side to side than forward/back. He struggled with a few catches this year that I thought he would have had in 2021. Not sure if maybe the collisions with the wall have him just a bit gun shy.
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5 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Some nice catches but it seems on anything hit at him his first step is always back. He's no Paul Blair on shallow fly balls. That was a great catch laying out for the ball in the alley against the Sox. I'm happy with his defense but my two criticisms would be the shallow fly and he does seem a bit tentative when he gets close to the wall sometimes. He's great going alley to alley.
OF’s are taught to take a step back. Always easier to transition back in to the infield. The ball over your head is extra bases. In front of you is a single. The ball at you is the most difficult read they have.
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38 minutes ago, vab said:
His swing really looks good. Hit the home run the other day, a hard shot back through the box last night. Doesn't look like what his numbers would indicate.
Pretty much everything he has hit was hard. He had a few line outs to the OF as well that were drilled. He doesn’t have a history of performance, so I get the skepticism here. But my eyes tell me that something has changed for the good. We’ll see. Probably a better option than Nevin and Richie. A part of me wants to see Richie get one last chance to just go out and play. After all the injuries and such, he has worked hard and it shows. Nevin needs to add muscle.
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Villar hit pretty well for us, and stole some bases and all. Sure. He also got caught stealing, often had some of the most boneheaded plays on the bases. He was very inconsistent in the field as well. One of the more maddening players I have followed. I seriously doubt Hyde would want him back. Of course he would never say that in public. But as a major league manager, who the heck would want that?
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8 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:
It was a thing of beauty for sure. Not something you see very often, a clean punch in baseball hahaha
He stayed short and inside the jaw. Joey was staggered. He didn’t want that smoke. Odor even backed away after the initial blow.
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12 hours ago, MurphDogg said:
He is 25 and on the 40-man roster. Teams typically don't carry guys over 25 on their 40-man roster who aren't in the Majors.
I understand that is traditional pre-COVID thinking. Stewart was 28 before being DFA’d. I do not think it is now or never for Vavra, not based on his age. The injuries have limited them, but he’s got two more option years after this.
That said, I would say he is in danger of being caught and passed by Prieto and Norby. Arauz might just be another guy in his way, though it’s too soon to be sure. Urias is another guy too. However, an intelligent LH bat with great contact skills with decent athleticism and baseball acumen is going to get a long chance. Or maybe traded.
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12 hours ago, MurphDogg said:
This simply isn't accurate.
As I pointed out, the only month where he played every day, starting 23 consecutive games in September 2020, he had an OPS over .900.
He didn't start more than 17 games in a month in any given month last year. The closest you can get to a month-long stretch last season when he started pretty much every day was May 24th to June 23rd of 2021, where he started 21 of 28 games during that stretch and he batted .206/.293/.438. with an unsustainably low .233 BABIP. And he was still on the bench for 25 percent of those games.
He has had the opportunity to play every day exactly once in his career and had an OPS of .907 during that time.
You can argue that (until now) his minor league numbers haven't merited getting a sustained opportunity, I might even agree that he has ever really deserved a chance to start everyday, but the idea that he has gotten one and failed simply isn't borne out by the facts.
I read your earlier post. I agree that he had some limited opportunities early. Though when he has had the opportunity, he got injured a few times. I would say that 77 starts in one season is ample opportunity. You disagree. Cool. I laid out the rest of my argument already. No need to rehash. Bottom line, they don’t believe in him. I think that is why he is where he is.
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
I guess I'm just being nitpicky again because, to me, a seasons worth of at bats over five years isn't numerous chances with everyday play.
I'm fine with moving on but he didn't get a multiple chances to just go out there every day thrive or struggle.
And if you aren't trying to win games for years on end you should be doing that.
I don’t disagree, not entirely. He did not get many chances early in his career. But I don’t think he impressed enough either. He did move into the starter role in 2019, and then had a fly ball hit him in the head. He had other misplays and got himself injured. I think it was an ankle, a knee and something else. The guy had some chances along the way. 2021 was really the first time where he played a lot. 77 starts is a very good amount. My eyes cannot unsee his slow bat getting beaten over and over again by 90 MPH FB’s.
In those years, they had Adam Jones (2018), Mancini, Mountcastle, Santander, Hays, Mullins and McKenna. They also had immortals Dwight Smith Jr., Stevie Wilkerson, Keon Broxton, Jace Peterson, Renato Nunez (DH), Mason Williams, Joey Rickard, Mark Trumbo, etc…who they gave at bats to over Stewart. I think that tells us how they valued him.
They kept Stewart and the others and moved Yaz. I think Stewart was always at the mediocre side of those in the organization. He was kept around because he is a LH bat, with some above average raw power, who might figure it out. He didn’t. They evaluated him on a daily basis, in his preparation and such.
I guess he could do a Yaz on us. Honestly, good for him. He’s not a good fit here. Maybe another team has room for a guy who can be an everyday mediocre DH. Not an AL East team. We cannot get our panties in a twist if a guy goes elsewhere and has decent results.
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7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'm not arguing for Stewart getting another chance, frankly I'd rather see Diaz before he gets hurt again.
But I don't think you can make a case that he had "many opportunities...with everyday play.".
He's had 622 plate appearances over five seasons.
I can definitely make a case. The past two years, he had several extended chances where he played pretty much everyday, especially when Santander and Hays were injured. He showed no signs of improvement. Slow bat, and he has lost whatever moderate speed he once had. Mediocre fastballs mystified him.
In 2021, he started 65 games in the OF, and 12 at DH. .204/.324.374/.698 with 89 K’s in 318 plate appearances. He had the one 10 day period in 2020, where he hit 7 HR’s like Babe Ruth. That really skews his career stats.
Hyde stopped playing him, because he is awful. They were patient with him. They gave him every chance. He failed. He was not claimed by the other 29 teams. He is currently emergency insurance for OF. As you said, in five years, he had his shot. If he had been better, he would have gotten more opportunities earlier.
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So, the Orioles claimed this 23 year old switch hitter, who has a very good defensive rep. A week ago. Because he got sent down by Boston before they waived him, he had to be down in AAA for a total of 10 days before he could come up, according to Kevin Brown in today’s broadcast.
After a few games now, I have seen him play 2B and 3B, and I have only seen him bat LH. I have to say that I have been impressed with his hands at 2B and 3B. His range and his arm seem to also be very good. A very smooth defender, he made some difficult plays at 3B today, and he made them look easy. The LH stroke is short to the ball with good barrel control. Has a little pop, dropped the barrel today on a Cease slider for a HR to RF. He has hit several line drives in his brief time.
Its early, but I like what I have seen, so far.
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10 hours ago, MurphDogg said:
Vavra has only played 77 games above low-A ball. He is 25 so it is probably now or never, but he is being outplayed by Stewart at Norfolk.
I’m curious, why is it now or never for Vavra at age 25? You note that Stewart has been hitting well at Norfolk lately, and he is 28 years of age with no real defensive value. I will counter that McKenna hit even better than Stewart in AAA, and he can actually play an above average OF. I think Stewart’s numbers are more a function that it is an even bigger gap between AAA and MLB than in years past.
I hope Stewart goes elsewhere and has some kind of major league career. He has had many opportunities with the Orioles with everyday play. He just did not make it here. In my opinion, he’s a step back in every way. There is a reason that no other team took him off waivers.
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36 minutes ago, emmett16 said:He’s actually more of a cowboy. He’s a country boy that trains horses in his off time.
Absolutely. He’s not a “thug.” Far from it. But he isn’t soft either. Tough as nails. He popped Joey Bats because he was drawing back to strike Odor. Roogie was just quicker. Roogie used to be a golden gloves boxer.
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I would pass on Villar. Odor is a huge influence in the clubhouse, in the dugout and particularly for Mateo in the field. Odor is one of the reasons this team has played great defense. And how many times has he had big hits for this team?
I have not seen much of Arauz, but I liked the swing on the two line drives to RCF. Robert ran them down, but they were solid shots and the swing was short and through the ball. He is supposed to be an excellent defender as well.
Richie is a guy that just needs to relax and play. Once he gets comfortable, I think he can be solid as a bench player.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
Correa was Elias’ guy.
I know he had input, but I don’t know if Luhnow made that deal. Like Elias does with Ciolek overseeing the draft.
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12 hours ago, seak05 said:
Elias has a preference for college bats, and that’s not going to change. However, if he sees someone who he thinks is with it, he’s willing to step outside the mold. I would expect the same this year.
He has had a preference for college bats, so far, with Baltimore. I think it had more to do with having higher floors in some cases. Not wanting to miss on an opportunity to add talent. His recent comments that he needed to build position player depth for the past several years in the organization make sense to me. It could be that we are where he wants to be, depth-wise. Or at least close enough that he feels good about taking a higher risk grab at Druw Jones or other HS guys.
I wonder how much influence he had in the 2012 draft when the Astros picked Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Rio Ruiz and Brett Phillips in the top several round of their draft. They took Brady Aiken, Kyle Tucker, Dax Cameron and several other risky HS players in his years there. Their drafts were still mostly college players though.
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4 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Of course, what did Westburg and Henderson look like at this time last year. Both struggled quite a bit at Aberdeen at times, IIRC. Cowser has stepped up his game this month. He's still isn't where we want him to be which is raking at Bowie but he's come back from a deep hole. Norby, obviously is struggling right now. I'd say it's either related to that beaning or he's going through something similar to Cowser was with zoning in. Who knows. Like you said, Rhodes looks pretty good and Trimble hasn't even played a game yet.
This is where I am. It is optimistic, but I think it is warranted based on what they did in 2021 after the draft, along with all of the information we have at hand. Their start is disappointing, but I feel it is way too early to call the ‘21 draft a poor one.
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32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Right shoulder inflammation. Not what you want to hear.
Yeah, that delivery, and that repertoire, is hard on the shoulder. Chris Tillman is one of many other examples. Hopefully, it settles down and he can get back before September.
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Good luck, Pat.
Matt Harvey close to minor league deal. (Update: signed)
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Thank you all for the kind words. I greatly appreciate it. I have been blessed. I did not mean to take over the thread, my apologies. I just do not like injustices like this, and I figured establishing my credibility mattered. Matt has made his share of mistakes, haven’t we all? He has learned and matured from them, according to Hyde and Elias. Who better to mentor young guys?
The fact that Fangraphs had him listed with 1.9 WAR in 2021 really surprised me. I figured he’d be on the plus side, slightly, but basically a two WAR pitcher…wow.