Jammer7

I can’t speak to what dad taught him, but you are likely correct. That’s a common teaching. It’s easier to teach a hitter to pull the ball than it is to teach an opposite field approach, IMO. He will do a lot of work on his swing and get much stronger. He has no issues with bat speed as far as I know. His hit tool grades range from 55-60 from what I’ve seen. I had heard the concerns about his use of the opposite field in preseason, but it was widely reported that he used the whole field more so this Spring. I’ve not seen the arm bar, but I honestly am not concerned about it. There are prominent major league hitters who have an arm bar. Very fixable, though. Any good hitting coach will tell you that they would rather have great rhythm and timing than great mechanics. When you look at many of the stars in the game, coaches will tell you that this flaw or that flaw are wrong in their mechanics. But it works for them. The main thing is to compete. Druw is a tremendous competitor. He grinds. The more I read and watch, the more I just love that young man’s game. A while back on Twitter, I think it was Tom House put a video of a friend’s son hitting in the cage. He asked for people to give feedback. Coaches, a bunch of them, were coming out of the woodwork to critique the kid’s swing and how it would never work, no way. Well, that kid was Mike Trout. There are so many experts out there…

It’s a good thing he’s not goi g to be facing major league pitchers yet. LOL He has an opposite field approach, not a slow bat. Letting the ball travel is not a bad thing. When he gets filled out and the man muscle comes, he’ll be great.

Appreciate you. I found the ignore feature helpful recently. It’s all good.

We agree. For me, Jones is in his own tier, and it really isn’t close. Anything else is because they feel Jones’ price was too steep in order to gamble on higher end talent later. Others will be fine players, but Jones is a star. Collier may just turn out to be the best power hitter, or Green. But Jones does everything so well. When he used the whole field this year, and increased his hard contact, that solidified it for me. It’s not my money, but he is our CF in three years. It’s like putting a free agent star on layaway. That sounds cheap, so that should work when Mike goes to sell it to the Angelos’ decision makers.

Normally, I agree. This one feels different. You may be correct, but he has money. He is a bit of a rock star, and he wants to be respected/paid as such. This one is all over the place. Like @Frobbysaid, what is fair? So, with that, is there a scenario where we’re willing to pay him a bit over slot? Maybe $9.5 million? We can still have a great draft after 1-1, just limit the over slot possibilities. Personally, I do it. Not my money, but he has next level tools, instincts, game knowledge and competitiveness. He is a really elite competitor. If you believe in your minor league player development folks, you take the best talent, as long as they have the intangibles you want. Is he coachable? It seems he is. If you have a chance to acquire a guy who comps to his dad, you do it at 1-1. He reminds me of Julio Rodriguez, tools wise, but he could be more like Adam Jones with more speed. With more guys hitting balls in the air, why not get a guy who is projecting as a perennial all star and gold glove fielder in CF? Ground ball rates are around 43% per a Bleacher Report article I read and posted here a few days ago. Among the lowest in the history of the game. Take Jones, take a few senior signs for low $$, take the 5% overage to add around $800K to your pool, and you can still have a great draft. Even if it means you go over a bit at 33 and 41, go slot at 67 and have to go under the rest of the way through round 10. Thanks to COVID, there are senior sign opportunities out there who will bring good value. Maybe some pitchers they like with their desirable attributes. As an aside, I wonder if MLB owners/commissioner discourage paying over slot at 1-1. I would imagine they cringe at the thought.

So, let’s say the Orioles take Druw Jones at 1-1. The fans are elated. All is well. Let’s say Jones does not sign and goes on to Vandy. I believe we would still get pick #2 in 2023. We lose the ability to spend a large portion of our pool, roughly half. How do you feel about that? Personally, I doubt he turns down $8.3 million. There are rumors out there that his number is $10 million. Jones obviously has money from his dad, so who knows. From all of the things I’ve read and heard on pods, the industry does not seem to think Jones will need full slot at 1-1. The big question about saving money and taking Termarr Johnson is who are the potential targets we supposedly need to save money for later in the draft? Then, will they be there when we pick? This draft is supposed to be rich in HS pitching beyond round 1, according to Joe Doyle of Prospects Live. That is the riskiest demographic as well. A lot of talk about the college pitchers coming off injuries. None of those guys should need big over slot deals. There are some interesting position players available around 33 and 41 as well, like Peyton Graham, Cayden Wallace and Jacob Melton. Cade Horton was a guy that I wanted at pick 41 before the College World Series. Then, he went and dominated. His stock jumped. So, he should be gone before we pick at 33. And he will want an over slot to come out early as a sophomore.

I voted Jones. No need to get fancy here, or cute. Draft the guy at the top of the Orioles board, whomever that is. I hope we take a high upside pitcher on the first day of the draft as well.

Where did you see Jones with a 45 hit tool? BA has him at 60, and MLB is a 55, the lowest I have seen anywhere.

Agreed. However, the trading of talent that may be impact level in 1-3 years doesn’t win games now. He hasn’t even pitched a full season yet because of health issues. If you can get a guy winning games now in a playoff run, and you get another year or two of control, you do it. Has to be an impact talent at the major league level, yes. Has to have good health and durability. We have the payroll flexibility to add. I just do not want to get some Duquette type acquisition and hope we have enough to compete. Either go hard at adding for a playoff run now, or don’t. Maybe do the Snell deal, trade Mancini and Tate too. Call it a day, and go compete and stick to the plan. Do not go half-assed and get caught in between. I just hate it when you add a weak pitcher like a Feldman, or a Parra type hitter. These were weak adds on Duquette, but he had little trade capital, in fairness. The Miller deal I would do again and again.

I do not disagree, overall. With Gore, it was command. Maybe some mechanical, some mental. With Hall, I believe it is more mechanical. The biggest issue with Hall, for me, is his health and durability. That is where my concern lies. To plug him into the pen, he has to be healthy and durable. He is on a starter routine now and has trouble staying healthy. Still young at 23, and I love the talent. But he is still very unproven. The reason we love him is what gives him great trade value. Has to be the right deal. No one is saying to give him away.

Why not both? And more. If we are going for it, be all in. Do not stop and get caught in between. If I had to choose only one, the Santander deal. Hall brings a lot of prospect capital, but he is very volatile and a lot of risk on the injury side. In the right deal, I can see him going. Oakland may have to send another piece in the deal besides Montas.

I like Lee a little better. Being a switch hitter, also with great bat to ball skills. More position flexibility. I share the same concerns with you about competition. If there are concerns about plate discipline, and they take him, they must feel they can help him improve it. If it’s true that Sig has him #1, then they must feel like he can overcome that. I have seen his swing ugly, and I have seen it quick and powerful. I am not sure why the ugly swings, but it was in BP rounds. So, maybe he was working on a specific movement or sequence of his process. I have done the least work on Lee of those supposedly in consideration. I have been more excited by the HS guys and the challenge of deciding which would suit the Orioles. Maybe with Johnson, I have seen too much of him. Prospect fatigue is a real thing. That is why I’m just going to support whomever they choose. I have my ideas of what I would do, but I’m just a guy having conversations.

Ok, no. Cheers.

Just a similar size 2B. There are not many first round picks close to his profile recently, much less 2B. Nothing else to it about the height specifically. It’s the body type. Height is just one characteristic. I think I’ve been pretty clear on that. Not the focus of what I have written. I would like a bit more value for 1-1. Elias gets paid to know a lot more than me, of course. If he picks him, he has seen what they like. I have not seen much of him. BP and grounders in a practice setting mostly. Some game video. Maybe he’ll be the star many say he will be. I’ll eat every word then, gladly.

I do not believe I have ever said he was too short. I have pointed to his body type/build. He’s a thick dude. He is built like a RB. Very think legs. Infielders are generally more lithe or wiry. That is all I was saying. Scouts, Front Office guys, and draft writers are wrong a lot, absolutely, regardless of what the body type is. I’m wrong a lot more than them, but my opinions are based on my experiences like everyone. I just cannot think of another quality major league 2B with a thick build like Johnson. Maybe he’ll be the first one like that.

It was a different interview with Harold and another former player, maybe Adam Jones or Cliff Floyd. It was on the last day of the combine. I watched it live. I could not find it on YouTube or MLB. Not sure why it isn’t there, but I guess not all of the interviews make it there. Not a big deal. Look, I just do not think he would be a good pick at 1-1. You, and CoC, agree with that as you have said. We have different reasons. I have my questions about him based on what I see, and read. I never said anyone is stupid, or whatever for valuing him differently. I’m not arguing with anyone here, and I remain civil and respectful. We disagree, and that is allowed. If he is the pick, I will support him. And hope I am wrong. The guy is built like an SEC running back. The only 2B I can remember with that thicker build is Howie Kendrick. There are good reasons why, generally speaking, as I have stated previously. All of the gurus like Law and Callis and the BA guys said Nick Madrigal, the #4 overall pick in 2018 was a great prospect too. He’s 5-08 175. They sometimes get it wrong.

How many double plays have we turned this year? How many turned at 2B? How many times has Roogie or Mateo made a play on a tough chance to get an out to get a pitcher out of an inning? Fairly often to my recollection. The pitching is changing to more 2 seamers, more sinkers than in recent years. I am out tonight, so I am not going to research the actual numbers. For now, just worthless anecdotal observations. Offense is supposed to be down this year, from what I have seen. And infield defense has been atrocious around the league. Twitchy is about quickness, no matter what any other posters say, it matters. It is what it is. Quick movement of hands and feet matter. Johnson is not that at 195 pounds. He just isn’t. I don’t need anyone to tell me that. He, himself, in an interview with Harold Reynolds at the combine admitted he plays laid back, in the mold of Cano, according to Reynolds. Not an insult, just an honest observation by more than just me. From Termarr himself. He talked about the criticism that he plays nonchalant. They said it’s because he makes plays look easy. I don’t see that, but I’m not going to disparage others for their opinions. Look, I am not a fan of picking him at 1-1. He may be a fine hitter, but I outlined why I would not take him for the Orioles. When he is about 25 or so, I think he slows down quite a bit. He’s going to get thicker, not thinner. He’s going to get slower, laterally. My opinion, but I don’t get paid for my opinions. So, what could I possibly know? In 5-7 years, you and others can tell me how wrong I was. I will gladly accept it. Until then, I guess we’ll see. Edit: I found an article supporting you, Corn, on the lesser GB rate. https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10033721-mlbs-offensive-woes-are-casting-a-boring-cloud-over-the-new-season.amp.html Corn, you are correct on that. I do believe it is changing as the FB usage is going down and there are more sliders and other off speed pitches than FB. Ben McDonald and Jim Palmer have spoken about it recently. The usage of 2S and sinkers are increasing because hitters have adjusted to high spin 4S up in the zone. I watched a game a few days ago, the Brewers and White Sox, I believe. The commentators were saying the same thing. That game was an exhibit of the bad infield defense I was speaking of. Numerous misplays that were not all errors, but the miscues cost the pitchers several outs and runs scored.

Odor defended himself, plain and simple. That’s what men do, when they have to. He was just quicker than Joey Bats. He literally beat him to the punch. Bautista was drawing back to strike him with a closed right fist and Roogie sent it first. Roogie was a GG boxer as a kid. He is not some thug. He did not hit him because of the slide, which was way late and meant to take Odor out in retaliation for getting plunked, which was in retaliation for his bat flip antics. Roogie took exception to the slide and they had words. Bautista was the instigator here. Being better doesn’t make him the bad guy here.

I think some teams can get by with an average-ish defensive player at 2B, if the player makes all of the plays they should. Hardy did not have great range toward the end of his career, but he turned outs into outs. He was always in the right position. Odor has been our best 2B defender in a good while. He turns the DP as well as anyone I can remember since maybe Alomar. I suppose Roberts wasn’t bad either. There is a lot of value in that for our pitchers. However, I think there is a move toward better, more dynamic, defenders in the Orioles system. Especially up the middle. With the philosophy of throwing more strikes, letting the stuff play in the middle of the zone and working deeper into the games, they need plays made. That said, the Orioles have Westburg and Henderson coming up. One may end up at SS or 2B in the shorter term. Henderson is twitchier, while Westburg is more solid. But they weren’t 1-1 picks either. For me, IMO, the strength of a good team is up the middle defenders. If I have doubts about a guy’s range, arm, feet and quickness, I don’t want them at 2B. Some body types project better than others. Termarr has a nice swing, sure. But at 5’-08” 195 lbs., that doesn’t project well for an infielder. The tools don’t appear to suggest a move to CF or RF. LF in Baltimore is now cavernous. I just don’t see picking him at 1–1. Not saying he is a bad player, just not what I would do. I would rather have an excellent twitchy defender with average offense at 2B, who brings energy everyday, than a more laid back guy like Termarr. He may win some silver sluggers, but how many runs would a better defender have prevented? How many outs would a better defender save and allow a pitcher to go deeper? I don’t want Grayson and DL having to get 4-5 outs in an inning. If they take him, I’ll support him. But it’s an awfully narrow profile for an organization that emphasizes positional flexibility.

I agree. I would only add that we could use some younger talent that lies outside the immediate window to help sustain or even lengthen the competitive window. The first group will get expensive, and we can move some of them, while having some continuity.

I forgot all about that.

Excited: Jones, Green Happy: Holliday, Lee Support: anyone else If it is Jones or Green, that means to me that Elias and staff believe they can develop that pick into a star. And they do believe in their ability to do it. This is a bit risky for Elias and Sig. To pick these kinds of guys would mean they really trust their process. Green might offer some bonus savings as well. Holliday and Lee will likely still be fine MLB players. A little lower ceiling, maybe a higher floor. I think they are more likely picks than Jones and Green. If its any other pick, I will support them. Doesn’t mean I love the pick, but I will support them. It will likely be a fine player, but a team only picks 1-1 so many times. I hope they never pick 1-1 again in my lifetime. No Griffey or ARod this year, but this pick is very important. Overall, I think they’ll take one of the first four listed. If they do go more of a depth approach, this board will implode, as will Orioles Twitter. It’ll be fun to watch. They do need the depth to make trades to acquire additional championship level pitching. But, like some, I think they can take Druw Jones, pay him slot (or just below), and manipulate the other picks to add value in various scenarios. They can under slot from the third round on down, for instance, if they take a guy like Sam Horn, RHP/QB prospect out of Georgia, or LHP Noah Shultz, the 6’-09” guy committed to Vandy. They’d get some higher end guys early and then take some less-refined or under-valued guys after that. Maybe a run on senior pitching, or an interesting projectable guy who COVID stunted their growth process.

I don’t know, but I don’t believe we’ll find out if you’re right on him. If Jones doesn’t agree pre-draft to what they want, I doubt they draft him. I generally agree with you on this, though. But Jones has money, and the Dbacks will mortgage some of their top picks to take Jones, supposedly. Boras will get the best deal for his guys.

This team is a lot of fun to watch, absolutely. Overachieving at the moment, I think. Pretty optimistic to expect this group to stay healthy and keep up the this type of play. Is the goal to simply “contend?” Are we going to trade top 10-20 prospects for players or pitchers for us to maybe win a wildcard spot? I’d rather go hard at winning it all, or trade the guys who are not on the next World Series team. I think it unwise to get caught in between. Trey, for as much as we fans love the guy, is expendable. Santander also. I can see keeping Lopez or Tate, but not both, if there is value there in a trade. Maybe we add a vet for another team’s salary relief, though I doubt they will add much salary. Our starters right now: Wells, Lyles, Kremer, Watkins and Voth. Wells is supposed to be slowed down, or maybe shut down at some point. Harvey likely comes up soon. So, who is your playoff rotation? This group does not inspire me in a playoff series. Maybe I’m wrong. I think they should stay the course. Fans will be pissed, so be it. The taste of winning should not cloud the soundness of judgement.

According to Jim Callis and Sam Dykstra on their podcast, Kumar had shoulder surgery in September 2021. Apparently, it was of a more minor nature, a scope. Though they did point out there is no such thing as minor shoulder surgery. They said the news came out Saturday night and they have released the records. Interesting. I don’t think he makes it to 33.