Jammer7

That is easy hoppy cheddar! If only they can sign him and teach him a slider. Wow…

He had left shoulder surgery in 2021, I think. So, there is some thought that was an issue. Kind of like our own Joey Ortiz. Switch hitter with some upside. Depends on his number and if he is ready to move on to the pro game.

Yeah, those three would be around $14 million. That leaves about $3.5 million for the rest, if my rough math is close, for the remaining nine picks in the first ten rounds.

Yeah, me too. I think we are at the point where it is time to make plays like that. If nothing else, it would be nice for the fan base to get excited about a move like that. But that is not in the plan for Elias, apparently. I wonder how much the Aiken kid stung him going forward. Elias must be adding more depth to replace those he is about to promote or trade. I know nothing about Porter beyond the public info, and how he relates to Sig’s model. Or how Elias’ interview with him went. Or maybe Porter said he didn’t want to come to Baltimore. Who knows? Maybe they like McLean that much as well. I mean, beyond the hype and polish relative to age and experience, McLean is a power arm and a tremendous competitor. Raw clay to put into the hands of their PD peeps. The Auburn kid has me intrigued too.

First time?

Some of what I wrote there was not entirely directed at you. I was being lazy. I think we are essentially on the same page. I want those kinds of prospects too. Elias' process obviously does not like HS pitchers. Very picky on HS hitters, so far so good. I too have not given up on Willems, but not a great start for him. He needs to mature and take things seriously. Fangraphs having that many HS players in the top 100 does not surprise me. A few of them (Rodriguez, Henderson, DL and Mayo) are Orioles, two were picked by Elias. Soon, they can add Jackson Holliday. When Elilas took over, this organization lacked athletic prospects up the middle. We now have them in abundance. I think his idea is to mitigate risk by developing those he can to trade for the pitchers he wants after they show they are legit. As a side note, I looked but could not locate an article I read a few years ago. IIRC, I believe HS players were outnumbered by college guys in MLB, overall. I am not great with search engines, unfortunately. But, to your point, I believe more of the star players were not college guys. I wonder what effect COVID will have overall on that, along with the 20 round draft. I think Elias is still looking to stock quality depth in his inventory. He is going to have to make some moves soon to get the pitching he needs, and this draft is to restock the system behind those moves. At least he did not play it safe and take Lee or Berry. Holliday was a pretty big HS play. Until we know more about the guys he picked, hard to say they did or did not go with high upside. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

I don’t know about Beavers or Wagner being over, but likely at least slot. I suspect that McLean is over and probably Cheney. Maybe Hodo gets a little over his slot too. I really don’t know, kinda spit balling here. Rajsich has some good draft picks, and his share of poor ones too. Hard to know which were dictated to him by ownership, DD or Buck…or Brady and whomever else. I think he was forced to take some guys to fill needs at the ML level. Quick moving relievers for DD, and Grenier has Buck’s fingerprints all over it. So, to be fair to Gary, he hit on Grayson, DL, Drew Rom and a few others like maybe Hanifee. I certainly do not think Akin and Lowther were great picks. My counter to this is that some of the college guys taken by Elias are and have been upside plays. Elias clearly believes in his player development and scouts. He looks for those who fit his model and are coachable. He looks for those who have significant athleticism and aptitude for unrealized value at lower costs. Elias believes in his coaches and physical trainers at an extreme level. We’ll see if they are as good as he thinks. I’m not super high on Hudson Haskin or Servideo. But I cannot find fault with Stowers, Henderson, Westburg, Hernaiz and Mayo. Jury is still out on Kjerstad just yet, but it looks great so far. Cowser and Norby are looking so much better now. I suspect Ortiz is better than he has showed. I think his shoulder surgery hampered his preparation for this year. If your issues are with upside pitchers, no argument. I wanted Brock Porter with 3-81. I guess they think grabbing McLean and Cheney were better than only getting Porter. IDK. Elias will never tell us, but a lot of the over slot HS pitchers fizzle out. Most of them, in fact. It’s a huge gamble, and that just isn’t Elias. We see the unicorn out there as the sexy pick, but the truth is we just don’t know what went into that decision. And, we don’t know what tomorrow brings either. He obviously prefers to acquire high end pitching in ways other than drafting HS kids with premium money demands. I can’t find fault with that. I want to, but I just can’t. He is the GM in Baltimore, not Boston, NY or LA. He cannot afford to miss right now on big expenditures.

I hope so, but I’m not so sure. We assume that there are several under slot guys, but there are some possible over slot types already. Some sophomores with options. I just don’t know.

No

We’ll see. I just don’t know. Depends on what they sign the first four for.

The Orioles like what tools he has. They see him as a guy they can help. I’ve know several kids at UF over the last several years. Some were supposed to be first round talents. They regressed.

When he gets to the organization, he’ll have some adjustments in mechanics and approach. The hands and coordination are there. Maybe there are some things with pitch recognition. He’s coachable, and he wants to be great.

I’ve seen him a lot for six years now. Excellent defender. The hit tool will be better as a pro. UF has had several very good prospects lose their way recently with the bat. Fabian enrolled early, so he’s just 21. Hard working competitive kid. The next pick will tell us a lot. Reserving my thoughts until then.

A big litmus test of the player development group. I like the Jayson Werth comp as far as he moves. If he hits like Tucker, awesome. But that swing has to be reworked completely.

His dad was drafted as a SS too, and then he matured into his eventual huge frame. I like the pick just fine, but it would not surprise me to see him outgrow SS. A big LH bat is always welcome. I don’t see him being the same as Witt, who is more twitchy. I see Holliday more like a Brandon Crawford type defender.

Would you rather have two all stars, or four solid players? Where you stand depends on where you sit. The answer depends on your existing depth and how you value the two all stars. They did the depth play a few times now.

It would melt this board down, but I keep looking at Jacob Berry. Berry, Lee and Cross are Elias/Sig kind of guys. I watched some video on Berry, along with some interviews. Best hit/power combo. Not as big as I thought he was, not sure he’s quite 6’0”. But another switch hitter with power, who is a little more athletic than I thought. Certainly not the best talent available at 1-1, but if they want an under slot deal on an advanced bat still, Berry might be in play.

Every team in MLB uses the bands. It is the most widely used item, by far. Kids throw harder today because of bands, weighted balls and long toss.

Thanks. I went back and read it again. I could not find another source on that, but I did discover he had a serious hamstring and knee injury in 2019. https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-prospect-brooks-lee-learned-from-father-coach-larry-lee

Who?

A good post, SG. Definitely an under-manned group for the AL East and playoff contention. The rotation is pitching above their heads right now, and not any all star position players. No gold gloves, but Mateo surely has been a pleasant development at SS. We do have one silver slugger in Ced who is not going to repeat that level of output. We’re a very RH dominant offensive team, without one legitimate big time run producer. We do have a very solid pen. What they are is a slightly above average team with great chemistry that is learning to win games. They’re improving and entertaining. If everything goes right, and other teams have things go wrong, maybe we slide into the wildcard. We’re the fifth best team in the AL East, and probably somewhere around the 8-10 range in the AL overall rankings right now. Adley is doing some very good things, but he still has a lot to learn about handling a staff. Westburg and Henderson are not going to come up and be some dominant force leading us to some long October playoff run in 2022. They have about 150 at bats in AAA, and it’s a big jump to the show. Mountcastle has regressed with his swing decisions. Santander has better decisions, but his bat speed looks down. Hays has made great strides, but his diving in makes him a bit pull conscious. With the draft and trade deadline, we have a chance to solidify the future of this team for several years.

They were talking about the SS, Zach Neto. Good player. Hagerty HS has produced some hitters, and a pitcher named Zac Eflin. The Braves have another one from there in AA OF Vaughn Grissom. He is tearing it up. They have some pretty good pitching coming too. Talan Bell is a name to watch for 2023.

I think he favors Julio Rodriguez’s game. Not saying he is going to be Julio, but the body type, profile and athleticism remind me of him. The way he competes. When Druw fills out, I hope he is as well muscled as Buxton. Lo Cain was such a good player. I’d love to have a player in that realm in CF for a long time.

I’ve been talking about Peyton Graham and Cade Horton for about 6 weeks with picks 33 and 41. They played their way into the 20’s of the first round discussion. If Graham is there, he should be around slot. Horton, strictly a pitcher for me, will be expensive. He’s an eligible Sophomore and he blew up in the latter third of the season. His fastball and slider look to be elite. Lots of great names in this thread already. Sam Horn and Jacob Miller are two more HS RHP’s that interest me. Nazier Mule is another big arm. Jackson Ferris, a 6’3” LHP from IMG, originally from NC, may be there at 33. Not sure what his number is, but it’s a nice profile. Noah Schultz is a 6’9” LHP committed to Vandy. Talk about him going in round 2, but I would imagine he’ll be expensive as well. Jacob Melton is an Oregon State 6’3” LH hitting OF with good peripheral tools. Seems to be the Elias mold. Cayden Wallace is an Arkansas 3B I like a lot as well. Tremendous arm, good defender at 3B and has enough athleticism and 65-70 arm to move to RF. The knock on him is a 45-50 hit tool, but 55-60 power. I think he’ll hit, from what I saw of him. Needs to cut down on his chase out of zone, like every college hitter. He will be 21 in August. Spencer Jones is intriguing. Used to be a two way guy, LHP. Arm issues have him being a hitter. He’s a good athlete, but I have questions about him. Maybe in round 3, if he’s singable, for me.

Someone asked which experts agreed with me that Jones is on a tier by himself. Well, MLB Pipeline and BA have him at an overall 65 grade, the others linked to the 1-1 pick at 60. BA defines that grade as a “Perennial All Star.” Fangraphs also has him at 55 FV, all others 50. So, that’s a tier all his own, unless I misunderstand the term. He isn’t Ken Griffey Jr., or Adley, but he has tremendous tools, blood lines and competitiveness. Unless there is something of an issue we don’t know about, he would be my choice. What they project he’ll be in 3-5 years is the issue. I don’t know who they’ll take, and I’ll support whomever they draft. I may prefer Jones, but if they go under slot and then over to get other big talents, fine. Elias has proven to me that his process and judgement works well. I remain hopeful that they take the best talent at 1–1, and I think SG and I have laid out ways they can do just that. This is going to be a lot of fun. Try to enjoy it. These are good times to be an Oriole fan again.