Jammer7

Do you mean that when several of the same clowns try to nitpick, outwit, outsnark and outgrump each other and the garbage they type is worthless? Oh, and I forgot those trolls who keep telling us Elias is an idiot. Yeah, it all seems to come down to that at some point in many threads around here lately. I’ve been lurking mostly lately for that reason.

It’s been 10 weeks now, and 11 by the time he gets in a game. Certainly do not want to come back too soon, but it’s the middle of the original window.

What he said in the interview about his back hip and leg, that is what I noticed. He sinks in and drives that hip more. The hands don’t really seem different, but the angle is tough.

Not so much. Cortes creates funk with his pauses and differing arm slots. Cortes has a quick arm and despite all the funky stuff, he stays within his mechanics. Allen’s action is slow and long, and it often looks like it will eventually create shoulder issues. His rhythm is poor from all of the mechanics and he frequently flies open. His early video is pretty sound and a bit shorter action. They may have tried to hide the ball better, create angles on his slider, and they altered his change up. I have never seen a guy like him. He looks like he is lost and searching for answers. In his interview, you can easily tell he was not happy about the way Cleveland altered his mechanics and pitches.

Agreed. There is arm talent there, but he needs some minors developmental time. Get his mechanics and pitch shape to where it needs to be. I watched a good bit of video of him. Different arm angles and mechanics seemingly in every season. I am glad Vespi finally gets an opportunity. Been a fan of his for years.

This was not a slap at DD. They said it themselves at the time. You can argue, but there really is nothing to argue about there. Pretty common knowledge. Stowers was drafted by Elias in 2019. As far as who has been added by Elias, 8 out of the top 10 (16/20 and 22/30) current prospects according to MLBpipeline.com. Some were brought in with trades. The 2020 draft was 5 rounds, with six Orioles’ picks. Your own list of prospects Elias has drafted was a decent start, but there is a lot more. Go look at the top 30 lists for yourself. Grayson and DL took great strides in the new staff from 2019 on. Brennan Hanifee was the only name I can remember regressing of note because he was primarily a sinker-baller. They challenged him to improve his other pitches. All of the prospects and major league guys you listed have all their best days since Elias’, other than Mancini. John Means was an afterthought, before the change up Chris Holt taught him. Mullins is a completely different player now. Hays, Santander and Mountcastle are showing tremendous changes in swing decisions and production. Again, I think Duquette did some good things, and he would have done many more if there was good ownership and not having all of the different factions in the organization at the time.

The reason DD spent the money you mentioned was because they were in a competitive cycle. They robbed the entire organization of assets to support the ML team. Thus, the mess that Elias inherited and the awful teams we have had to endure. Budgets have a lot more to them than what you make it sound like. For instance, what does it cost to provide housing for all minor league players? Maybe around $2-3 million for the season? Picking high in the draft and extra picks have this draft budget at what, $17 million? These things add up. He could have spent a bit more, sure. That is not the model they developed. They stuck to their plan, and it looks like we are just about to come out of those dark days. A few recent injuries and the lineup is awful again. But the Orioles are not cellar dwellers anymore. Not contenders, lol, but not at the bottom either.

Two months before the draft, what did you expect him to say? Things can change very quickly. Major injuries, circumstances off the field, pop up players, etc… can all happen. What if Jones suddenly comes down with, say Myocarditis before the draft? Do you advocate taking him #1 if you think he’ll miss a year, or maybe never play again? Look, there is absolutely no reason to say what you are going to do right now, if they actually even know yet. Bargaining position for Jones would only be strengthened if you go out and tell the world that you are taking him. We, as fans, want to know everything. Some think we are entitled to it. We are not. GM’s are well paid to tell us almost nothing, until something actually happens. There are very good reasons for it.

I remember Elias saying he did look closely at a pitcher. I am not sure who it was, Inwould guess Lacy. Big LH with considerable college and summer experience. I was on Martin early too, but the lack of positional value got me off him. I eventually moved to Lacy and Veen. I wasn’t into Meyer, his build and delivery had me passing on him.

I preferrred Martin, on draft day. But once I dug in on Kjerstad, I really liked his whole game. I never looked close at him before that. Hopefully, he gets started soon. Edit: Upon reflection, I actually wanted Asa Lacy on draft day. Martin’s lack of position was an issue for me. Lacy has struggled as well.

I agree not at 1-1, and I doubt he takes him unless he falls a few rounds. And the medicals will have to be seen first, IMO. I was just curious what others had to say.

So, if Kumar looks healthy and back to his top form, and it’s a BIG IF, does he get seriously considered for 1-1 by Elias? Would he dare show his medicals?

The only way I can see Richie back in Baltimore any time soon is if Mateo goes on the 60 day IL, and they bring him in to start and play 5-6 days a week. He never got the developmental reps he needs, though he might this year. Not a big story for me, as I think Mateo is a far better player than Richie is. That doesn’t mean I am not happy for Richie doing well in Norfolk.

Too many factors to really say what to expect. We did play a lot of 2021 playoff and division leading teams. We went 2-7 against the Yankees and Rays early. A lot of close games along the way. Adding Bradish, losing Means, adding Nevin, adding Rutschman soon and perhaps DL Hall soon after. Urias has not hit. Hays and Santander have stayed healthy, certainly not something to bank on going forward. I think the hitters were still adjusting to the new hitting philosophy, to some extent. Many balls were crushed right at fielders. The swing decisions are the one tangible thing that gives me hope of continued steady offensive output. Several RH hitters are barreling balls to RF as well. The approaches and processes of the hitters is unique for us Orioles fans. Pitching-wise, there may be some bumps in the road with such a young group. The rotation seems pretty solid as long as they can skip a guy now and then, or go with six starters on occasion. Tyler Wells is only going to be able to keep this pace up for so long. Can Watkins sustain his success? IDK. The pen seems a little fragile as Tate and Baker have struggled some recently. We don’t have any idea yet what we have in Logan Allen. The league will adjust to Krehbiel. And we never know what to think of Fry. There could be others called up, injuries, trades, and so on. I just hope they stay relatively healthy and keep competing.

This was exactly what I wanted to see. Put him at SS and leave him there. The defense shows how hard he has worked. Better instincts than I expected. The offense will come, all of the tools are there. He won’t be a 9 hole hitter forever. Needs to stop stepping out with the front foot, unless he wants to get right on top of the plate. Looks improved, but still some to go with that so he can barrel balls on the outside corner.

I agree with your entire post. The quoted was of particular interest. They have their data, their model. They know what player type they can develop best, based on a host of factors. Absolutely. That is why when Elias said he picked their BPA, I give him the benefit of the doubt. Their model likely had the players in consideration and the best value was who they chose. It may not have been the “sexy” pick, but it was who they felt would prosper or provide the most value their organization. There are so many factors the general fan base has no idea about. Players today are completely different than players 15-20 years ago. The things that make them successful, and what is their motivation, just a world apart. I would love to be a fly on the wall in one of Elias’ scouting meeting for the draft. It wouldn’t do much good to listen to Sig, though. He could dumb it down for me and I doubt I will get it. Old dog, new tricks and all.

Oh, I agree completely. I have had the same concerns as I described from the first time I watched video. Yes, he looks like he can hit. But the body type scares me. Positional inflexibility also a problem for me.

His HS team was so bad, Termarr only got up two times a game. He did not have a great season, apparently. Scouts have begun to question the body type and what lies ahead for him. Will he maintain the bounce he has now? There is no projection left. Will he get bigger in a bad way? I think these questions are what hurt him.

Absolutely, SG, and others, made several good points. I just want to be sure we try to interpret the data in our subset. To criticize the tactic because some in the industry made poor decisions seems incomplete analysis. There is so much more to what happens after they are selected.

Wow, this thread is one for the books. The facts are facts, sure. But what do they mean? To me, it means the league, as a whole, has had some limited success with over slot picks. Ok, sure. But, does that mean each organization has had the same level of success? No. Some have had a much better record than others. Elias happens to have been involved in one of the more successful organizations, the Astros. The one draft cited that talks about Elias’ draft in Houston seems to counter the main point of the OP. There are several factors that dictate success. Do they take riskier pitchers, or stick to more stable position players? Who is doing the scouting and drafting, are they diligent and well prepared? How capable is their player development system, are they on the same page as the amateur scouting group, what are they good at developing and does the scouting group draft that? Does the organization have the resources available to support the coaches and the players selected? That goes far beyond signing day. Do they have processes in place for the players’ growth in all facets of their physical, mental, psychological, emotional and financial well-being? Success doesn’t just happen by the player seeking it out on their own very often. I used to wonder why MLB organizations did not do more than just sign them and give them a uniform. Elias went under-slot in the previous years to maximize the draft pool to build as much depth as he could. I believe he calculated the value of all players available and selected the best player in their evaluation that they could get the most from as a player. He leveraged their general status. It remains to be seen if that was right or not. Opinions vary. He could not have seen Kjerstad’s path so far. And I’m not worried about Cowser, not yet. This seems like the year he can justify taking a riskier/toolsy pick. Maybe it’ll be Greene, who knows? The depth is built up and he can begin dealing from the depth. The naysayers will always find something to bitch about. Facts, hard to come by just yet in Elias’ draft classes in Baltimore, especially in regards to Over and Under slot applications of the draft pool. Some point to Gunner Henderson, Coby Mayo, Carter Baumler, John Rhodes and Creed Willems as a major success employing this tactic. Some say Lawler and Martin were better picks than Kjerstad and Cowser. Maybe they were, maybe not. You cannot jump to any conclusions yet, at least not any reasonable ones.

I agree with Law here. There are certainly refinements to make on his hitting process overall, across the board. If he receives instruction well, and has the work ethic we’d expect from Andruw Jones’ son, you expect the projections to work. The tools are there. Even @NelsonCruuuuuzcan see it, lol! There is still a lot of information to sort about the intangibles and so on. We have had our disappointment on the day after the draft with some of the over slot stuff, and we’ll see what happens here. This is the first time I feel like he should be willing to take a shot at a higher end talent. You never want to miss, but you have to take a shot if your depth is in a good place. And it is. If Elias takes Jones, and he doesn’t jump to AA in two years, many here are going to be up in arms and call them (Jones and Elias) a failure. The expectations of some of our fans is pretty tough. Player development has no shortcuts, unless you want them to fail.

So, Elias was right to not sign them then, in hindsight? Or perhaps they made a judgement based on durability and various factors to sign Lyles and give the young guys opportunities. I know that doesn’t fit your agenda, but let’s be honest and give credit when due.

Maybe, one corner turned with several more to go. There are several reasons to be optimistic, sure, even if it is only a month. Starting with recognizing Roughned Odor. He has had a great recent stretch of games. If he keeps this up through September, I will order a double helping of crow. Now, as wrong as I was about Odor (and Gutierrez), I hoped Mateo would be the player at SS he has been. He has been really fun to watch. The defense up the middle has been really good. Mateo and Odor have been a great tandem turning double plays. As Wildcard said, the infield will make some errors. They will also turn in some magnificent plays. Both are hitting the ball hard as well, and recently starting to fall or get over the wall. Hays, Mullins and Santander have been great in the OF. Hays’ throw to nail Larnach at the plate, just wow! The offensive output from these three has also been fun to see. Santander and Hays have made better swing decisions and it has been paying off. I still do not like how much Hays dives in and tries to pull the ball, but so far he is thriving. The pen and the rotation have been much better than anyone expected, especially with the loss of Means, and the trades of Scott and Sulser. Some great posts already covered that in this thread. So, now what do we expect the remainder of the season? Adley soon, Grayson a little later, DL Hall by the end of June? Maybe Stowers somewhere around mid-summer. Maybe a few others if injuries happen. What about things like injuries, trades? I know most of us are waiting for the usual injury bug to bite the usual victims. Are guys like Santander, Hays and Mateo going to stay healthy? Can the rotation stay healthy? Those are big questions, and only time will tell. It would be nice if the above group stays healthy and is able to establish themselves completely as the players they have shown glimpses of. As far as trades go, I would suspect there will be some. Mancini, Santander, Odor, Lyles and Fry seem like the probable candidates. My hope is that the trades are made with the present and future in mind. Acquire some players that will help us win in the remainder of 2022 and beyond.

Freddie, Dansby, Ozzie and Riley are dudes that win big games too. You need several dudes. Injuries happen, yep. That’s why you need several. And yes, there are different formulas to win.

Still two months, maybe. I don’t think Holliday goes 1-1 unless it’s an under slot thing. I saw him play some last summer. He didn’t look good, pressing I think. A lot of swing and miss. I didn’t see a premium athlete either. But, I have read that he had a dramatic turnaround. Is Collier the JUCO 3B? I have heard good things, I don’t recall seeing him.