Jammer7

It’s a fair question. And it’s a great problem to have. It is not as simple as statistical analysis for me. I think I still go with Adley because of what he has been, and will be for many years to the Baltimore organization. He plays nearly every day, whereas Grayson pitches about five innings every five days. Adley is probably banged up pretty good by now. I wonder how much Adley has helped Grayson and the rest of the Bowie pitchers this season. To what degree has Adley helped Grayson achieve what he has become this season? And it isn’t like they have figured him out and shut him down. He will be a dominant force in the lineup again soon.

Many journalists who know his situation are saying it will be. I would also think that before Elias drafted him, they had an agreement on a number.

It seems like Trimble, Rhodes, Willems (maybe most over slot), Burns, Higgins and Craig could all be over slot. Buying Willems out of a TCU commitment is not going to be cheap. Trimble and Rhodes should get a more modest bump.

1. Adley Rutschman 2. Grayson Rodriguez 3. DL Hall 4. Gunnar Henderson 5. Jordan Westburg 6. Colton Cowser 7. Heston Kjerstad 8. Mike Baumann 9. Connor Norby 10. Reed Trimble The next ten would be Bradish, Jones, Vavra, Haskin, K. Smith, Stowers, Rom, Neustrom, Y. Diaz and Baumler. I like Westburg over Cowser for now, but not much. Westburg has more defensive value until he moves to 3B, and I think more raw power. If/when Cowser adds more power to his profile, he should pass Westburg. I get leaving Kjerstad off, and his future may be in doubt, but for now, I kept him in there. He is still a prospect with great potential. Norby just looks to me like he will have more power than Vavra, but with a similar hit tool. Norby should be a better defender than both Vavra and Jam Jones. I agree with SG about Trimble. The more I watch and learn about him, the more I like. A switch hitter with power from both sides. He can run well and has a shot to play middle infield. More projection at this point, but he trended up well as the season went on. A COVID freshman, the kid only had one year of college ball. A great test of their development capability.

I am inclined to agree. I wonder if being in Sarasota for a while might be something to do with the physical work up to get into playing shape. I don’t know if Delmarva is equipped that way.

I don’t know, MurphDogg, he has not played since late May. It depends on what he has been doing since. Also, didn’t Adley get sick after signing? Mono, or something, I think.

I think Trimble and Rhodes are over slot as well, they both have some leverage. Trendon Craig will probably take a bit more as well.

They are all vulnerable. Willy Yahn, Andrew Martinez and Craig Lewis are probably vulnerable as well. I would think Janvrin gets a little longer leash than the rest, just based on his tools (mostly speed), age and lack of experience. Harris probably stays as an organization guy for a while. Kehe is the most vulnerable to me, followed by Sparks, Fontana and Cespedes. Like Tony said, it depends on when they sign and how aggressively they are placed. Some of these guys have not played since late May. I think Colton Cowser, Connor Norby and Donta' Williams go to Delmarva sooner than the rest. Reed Trimble might stay in the FCL to get some run in the infield. John Rhodes may get some time in the FCL as well. Burns, Higgins and Cook could also be in Delmarva by the end of 2021 as well. Pavolony is said to be fully healthy now, and he might be in Delmarva if Cannon is out for a while with injury. Initial moves could look something like this: Kehe released - Haskin to Aberdeen - Cowser to Delmarva Martinez released - Norby to Delmarva Yahn released - Higgins to Delmarva Sparks released - Williams to Delmarva

I don’t disagree completely, but I do think there is reason for optimism. Jordan Westburg, Johnny Rizer and Hudson Haskins are hitting fairly well. And Joey Ortiz was greatly improved before his season ending injury. They were all Elias draftees. I would not say they are “dominant,” but you have to be very pleased with their production and improvements, right? All depends on what your definition of dominant is. This is the first full season action for Elias’ draft picks, so we’ll see what we have at the end of the year. I have not posted since the draft began because I have been watching video and reading scouting reports. I did not want to judge this group on a whim as I knew little to nothing about most of them before the draft. There was seemingly enough knee jerk reactions out there. The only ones I was familiar with were Cowser, Norby and Donta’ Williams. I am high on the Trimble, Rhodes, Burns and Pavolony picks. We’ll see what comes of it, but the tools are there in these picks. It isn’t the sexy big name draft some folks wanted, but there is quality and quantity.

I think it’s early to promote Westburg just yet. If he does move up, perhaps Grenier moves to Norfolk. I personally do not see Westburg moving Grenier to 2B, maybe they share SS. Grenier is a much better defender, not just a little bit better. Don’t get me wrong, though, I love Westburg’s overall ability. I do think he is a 3B in Baltimore. I actually think Grenier will hit enough. He has made some changes mechanically and improved his ability to be loaded in a power position and on time with the barrel. He hit a 433 foot HR to CF on Saturday. He has slumped some for a few weeks, but he has been hitting the ball solidly for most of the season. A good amount of hard contact.

I recall when he was drafted, some were saying he might have enough speed to do so. I don’t see a good fit there.

Vavra will be back soon. I agree that it may be interesting to see who is promoted in the next few weeks. Not sure they move Westburg this soon. I think Grenier is the best defensive SS in the system. Playing him there over Ortiz for the majority of games tells me the staff feels the same.

He had a nice month or so. Ortiz is out for the rest of the season with left shoulder surgery. Grenier may be a little dinged up right now.

Has he improved in that split?

I have not seen much good video on him, but the numbers are nice to see. From what little I have seen, I think his swing tends to be long. And I wonder if he can handle plus velo.

Not right now. He and Basallo are slated to play in the DSL when it begins soon.

Watched some of the game tonight and saw Gutierrez make several very nice plays at 3B. He is athletic and agile, quick soft hands and the best arm at 3B since Manny left. He even had a couple of hits. The error was on a throw that short-hopped Trey at 1B. The ball went into his glove and bent it back causing the ball to come out as the glove snapped back forward. Trey should have had that. The snag on that by Gutierrez was really nice, but he bounced the throw like it was shot out of a cannon. Franco never sniffs that play.

Yes, but it is in the background at times. More interested when the Orioles are picking soon, of course. The past 4-5 years I watched more than normal because of the number of kids I knew getting drafted.

Yeah, I had to listen to it a few times to be certain. Ortiz had a solid year going, and his improvement is encouraging. I think we can trust Matt Blood in his assessments now.

Matt Blood was on a podcast, On the Verge, which I recommend highly. Blood said, and I am paraphrasing, that he was sad that he was not going to see Ortiz play again this season. And I do not think the hosts caught it. I listened to it again, and he did say it.

I believe Longenhagen is very informed and knowledgeable. But this is the first time I have heard anyone say the Brady House would be a 1B in a few years. That is not at all what I see, but ok. We do agree that he is likely not a SS for long. But he is a very agile athlete and a skilled defender.

A very thoughtful post. I certainly do not know the numbers off the top of my head, but the improvements are well-documented by the media. Facilities in the DR were atrocious. The absolute worst, which is what one would expect when a team does not value that program. The cameras (high speed and otherwise), computer equipment and the other things that the new analysts needed. The list goes on and on, and none of that was there. They hired many more international scouts. I am sure that guys like Kobe Perez and Matt Blood are not cheap hires either. The traction I am speaking of will not have effects from MLB success, no, not yet. But their ability to help players reach their goals will be evident in how the players they signed are improving. How many are in the FCL right now, and things like that. Players and their trainers (buscones) do talk a lot. They know what is moving in a good direction and what is not. I think they will see the opportunity to take their bonus money and the ability to compete in an organization in need of talented players. I think Mike Elias is a little more Cardinals than Astros, if you know what I mean. Maybe a little less arrogant and a little more substance.

Fair enough. Ownership has certainly earned our distrust. 100% on board with you there. But within the time that Mike Elias has been here, and keeping in mind the small market and COVID, I think he has done an excellent job in every facet. I think he is also about as genuine a guy as there is in the industry. He is human, and he’ll make mistakes, sure. Candid when he can be, but cautious when he should be. I am not sure I could have asked for a better situation that was within any reasonable expectation for any Orioles fan. The people he has hired continue to impress me. Holding on to Brad Ciolek was a great move. Mike Snyder is doing a great job as well. Makes me wonder if we’ll be able to hold onto them for long. Kobe, Matt Blood, Eve Rosenbaum, the list goes on and on. Changing the direction of the steam rolling ball of crap he inherited was never going to be an easy job. But I think they have done a “miraculous” job because I wanted this to happen…I just did not expect that it actually would. We have been screaming for a GM like this since Pat Gillick left. We got exactly what we wanted. Remember the good ole days of Syd Thrift and the “Wonderlic tests?” Miraculous…

So, this Gutierrez guy…? I know very little of him. I do remember seeing him rated in the Nationals system several years ago. I will say he has a good athletic frame and I can see what they like about him. Maybe they can work with him and get him to buy-in on some plate discipline things. At this point, why not? It is a very bad team, but a land of opportunity for a guy like Gutierrez. As far as Jones, I love the bat and athleticism. But nothing drains me more as a coach or fan than when a guy turns what should be an out into an adventure. That really is bad for young pitchers, and our young pitchers need every out they can get.

Money is money, my friend. And Kobe was not hired yet. They knew the task the had at hand. And they spent a lot of money upgrading everything from the ground up to support a successful transition. Technology and improvements to facilities, along with added coaches at each level and more physical trainers and other support roles, they have made a miraculous improvement. One that is sustainable and will support the generations to come.