Jammer7

Yeah, you’re right. Two mediocre weeks in Aberdeen. He’s a bust. ?

I don't like the way he has been handled this year either. Second tier prospect or organization guy? I don't know yet, and it doesn't really matter right now. They don't know for sure yet either. I would bet that Elias does not like the way he has had to move Lowther around, but had to do it out of necessity. They had him at the Alternate sight, so they got a good read on where his innings are. I think he is a candidate to replace Paul Fry when he is traded in July. Or perhaps he does that in 2022. Better get him some better sticky stuff, though.

Sal Frelick at 1-5 would be a bit of a disappointment for me. He is a good player, sure, but at 1-5? A 5-09 speedy (65 grade speed) CF with a 60 hit tool. Has some limited infield time, apparently. A three sport athlete in high school: hockey, baseball and football. Henry Davis has an ugly caveman swing, but when he barrels it goes. Not sure that swing will work. More strength than quick hands and wrists FWIW, I think Brady House and Harry Ford are Elias' type of guys. I could even see Khalil Watson. There really isn't a good college bat at the top of the draft, at least not the kind I think Elias would want. I think he is posturing and negotiating to see what he can get House to accept first. Then Ford and Watson after that. In the end, I hope he takes House. That 70 power will look great wherever he plays. Pay him, and ditch the under slot shrewdness. This is a year when you can play it straight. Since they have good depth now, they can afford to gamble a little on some younger talent early. Maybe take a college OF bat like Robbie Martin (FSU) or Isaiah Thomas (Vandy) with the 3rd or 4th round pick.

He went deep for the second time in two games.

There are several prospects that will move off these lists. Some are in the major leagues, and some are under performing. And perhaps he is just a better player than many on the list right now. It won't bother me either way, but he is legitimate. As far as Kjerstad, I could see him dropping off if he does not play. That would only be fair. He'll be back.

I also wonder if Bradish is able to make these lists before he gets promoted to Baltimore. It doesn't really matter to me, at all, but he's nasty.

Westburg has to be getting close on these top 100’s.

Once a very promising prospect, highly ranked infielder. Had shoulder surgery in 2017 and an 80 game suspension for PED’s before the 2020 season. Why not take a look. https://www.mlb.com/news/domingo-leyba-suspended

This is very true. Manny got his coaching from outside the organization for his offensive improvement. He and Schoop credited Cruz for much of their improvement. I will give Bobby Dickerson a ton of credit for his coaching. He is pure gold.

Would you trust the former regime minor league/player development staff to coach and develop Gunnar Henderson today? Would they have helped him become the player he has become already to this point? Be honest. All of this will be a moot point sooner than later. Gunnar will be in high A in a few weeks or so, I would think.

I am saying he should have been better. There was more there. When he did not try to yank everything, he was much better. This regime would have developed him better and he would be a more productive player in my opinion. His approach was just terrible the majority of his career. And yes, development can and has happened at the major league level. Of course it does. But to have core members of your team doing this is not meant to happen on a competitive playoff contender in my opinion. I said what I wanted to say. I’m done with this discussion.

You misunderstand what I wrote, I think. Schoop was pushed up at the end of his development. He became content to try to yank every pitch. If you are satisfied with that, that’s on you. This regime would have done a much better job developing him into a better hitter, and that is all I am saying. Britton went to spring training, and he was out of options. Dave Wallace worked extensively with him and helped him to be able to throw strikes. He went from a borderline failed starter to a high leverage reliever. Disagree all you like. Feel free not to read it then.

It’s been a month...draft eligible sophomore with a short college season. Probably won’t be long, though.

I think we are largely on the same page. This regime is very different than what we were used to in Baltimore. The current group is very very respected throughout the industry. People are watching what is happening and others will try to emulate them. Quite a switch from a few years ago when we were in the Stone Age. The previous regime was terrible in development. Everyone in baseball knew that. They rushed Machado, but his talent kept his head above water until his offense caught up two years later. He was there for the defense to help in a playoff run. They had no other choice but to rush him up with very little time in AA. Schoop was rushed and his overall offensive game suffered for it. Solid 2B, great arm, one dimensional offensive player. There was a lot more there to develop. Instead, he had two decent years. That was really it. Dave Wallace saved Zack Britton at the MLB level. Sisco was handled terribly by DD and Buck. That is why he is where is right now. He is absolutely terrible right now. Hays was rushed to Baltimore, way before he was ready. Jury is still out on my favorite player because he cannot stay healthy. Learning how to condition yourself and workout and stretch and nutrition is all part of the development cycle. There are so many things we cannot take for granted after the COVID cancellation of 2020. The Alternate Site can only accomplish so much. They cannot replace game experience against true competition. Yes, the powers that be extolled his improvement, and rightfully so. But that means nothing until he does it against competition. He has begun to do just that. It will not be long.

Ok, opinions vary. I would say that we know some things about Gunnar now that we did not know a month ago. He has shown some things against actual competition. Before now, it was solely about projection. Because of the way they travel now, Gunnar has played what, 4 of the other 11 teams in his league. Maybe there are some arms Elias and Blood want him to see. Perhaps they promote him tomorrow. I do not know. I am just not worried, and I do think it will not be long before he moves up.

Rob, most people agree that some of these guys were started conservatively. Elias and Blood are being cautious, certainly. That is who they are, even without COVID. How have the top prospects suffered by starting a level lower and moving up in 4-8 weeks? Like i wrote last night, Gunnar should get 1,000 at bats or more, like Tatis. There is time.

I get that, certainly. But just to get them there is not even of half of the job of developing a player. You want them to get there and have the tools to have success and stay. You want them to have had enough failure, and to have overcome that failure so they can deal with it in the major leagues. Look at the terrible development of players not named Machado over the previous 10 years. Elias has said repeatedly that he does not want to send guys down, if possible. He wants them to come up, and stay up. That is the goal, anyway. Particularly for guys who have the ability to be all stars. No one is saying to hold him back. Just that he should move up when he passed certain benchmarks. Shown particular abilities, skills and aptitude. Winning a few more games next year is not more important than winning a lot more games in the years that follow. Not to me anyway.

The pitchers do adjust, situationally if nothing else. If they find out you chase a high fastball, for instance, you will see them go there if they can when they need a swing and miss. It may depend on the organization somewhat. We adjusted in travel ball and high school to a hitters weaknesses. I agree with most of what you wrote. Ultimately, I want him to start in AA in 2022. He is a very exciting talent.

Right, and along with that, many draft experts like Jim Callis said after the draft that Kjerstad was about to break out and was probably a TOP 3-5 pick. Callis said that he did a little more digging with scouts post draft and Kjerstad was not as big a reach as some thought. Obviously, the myocarditis did nothing but empower the doom and gloom around here. A little patience and we'll see. Nothing is easy or guaranteed. These guys (Elias, Mejdal and staff) have a track record and they are among the best in the industry at what they do. Some folks around here talk about Elias like he is some kind of haphazard fool. Cracks me up, honestly. If you watch his swing and approach, his swing decisions, his process, it is obvious that he made a lot of progress before his junior year. The limited results were outstanding. Not just the numbers, but the way in which he achieved them. His process appears to be sustainable. Just need him to get back on the field and prove it so the snarky naysayers can look for something else to complain about.

I do not know him like that. The Orioles do. And it isn't my call. But exercising some caution is prudent with most of these young men. Professional baseball is taking a much more proactive approach to developing their players off the field than ever before. It is smart to protect their investment. All I was saying is just give it a few weeks and see where this goes. He is not Fernando Tatis Jr.. Tatis was signed by the CWS in 2015 and debuted for SD in 2019 at the ripe age of 20 yoa. He skipped AAA and went straight to SD. He still had four years of professional baseball before reaching SD and 1064 minor league at bats before his debut, and he IS a PHENOM. Gunnar has 192 professional at bats. He will move up, just wait a few weeks.

Not necessarily. I would prefer that they wait, but I will not come here and complain about it. They have it right in front of them. If they think he is making adjustments and is ready for the challenge, fine. It is their call. But having caution now can help move him quicker later, and with greater success. I do not get to see what adjustments he has already made. I am impressed with his makeup, but I personally want to see him struggle and see how he handles it. The coaches are seeing how he is getting pitched night after night. They know his maturity and his decision making.

I call it an awesome start. Let's see what he does for the next 4-6 weeks. He has not seen the entire league yet. They do not have a book on him yet. I want him to be successful in Baltimore too. I do not want him to rush and not be prepared to stay.

I fixed that for you.

Along the lines of challenging him, you would agree that when the league adjusts to him he will be challenged to adjust with that, right? And perhaps he has things to get better at defensively. I want to see him move up too, but when he is ready to do so. A month of low A at bats, he has not even seen the whole league yet. He is not Ken Griffey Jr.. Relax a little and enjoy his growth.

Age is relevant to his maturity, on and off the field. Handling the game and the pressures of the stardom, and failure. Age is relevant in that the youth is best served to play in MLB for a long time when he is ready to stay there. The league has not adjusted to him yet. They will, and I think that is what they are waiting for. For a guy who has worked in MLB, how are you getting carried away with a SSS of a month? The camp was a sterile controlled setting. He worked on fundamentals, and yes, he faced some live pitching. But it was the same pitchers, over and over. They can move him up in early or mid-July. There is plenty of time. He can start AA in 2022 and move up from there. That would get him to Baltimore at age 22 in 2023. Again, what is your rush?