Jammer7

I can see your point, I just disagree, in general terms in the Baltimore market. Spending money on a veteran player like Iglesias makes sense to shore up the defense for your young pitching and to provide an example/mentor for younger players, especially the younger Latin players. Spending a small amount of money on a veteran starter, or a reliever for that matter, helps provide an example for the daily routines and such for the younger pitchers. It also eats innings to stabilize things and perhaps you can build some value for later trades of that veteran, as they did with Milone. These were astute value-based low cost acquisitions that enabled them to properly develop young players at the major league level more efficiently. It also enabled them to see others perform and see what they have in those players to best determine current and future values. They were able to put many players in a position to be successful, which is what development should be about. If they did not have the Davis and Cobb contracts, this might be a consideration to me. But the Davis contract, in particular, is an albatross of the highest order. I think they can find very talented players that are low cost and help them improve to the point that some may become major league players. Look at all of the former waiver claims and low cost acquisitions that have come through in the last year. Many of the players we have acquired were once high draft picks or expensive international signings. Tanking sucks for most fans, but it is a proven strategy to build up a talent base fairly quickly. The Orioles have diverted much of their budget to improving the infrastructure of the organization. Whether it be capital improvements in structures and facilities, technological advances, more staff and coaches in the development pipeline, or international players and development, they have had much needed improvements in all of those areas thanks to the diversion of money they had been spending on the major league team in an ill-advised era from 2016-2018. Being a "decent team' means mediocre and caught in between. Drafting consistently around 15-25 brings you a lot less talent in the rule 4 draft. We can make up for that in the international market, but we are not there yet. It is hard to root for a mediocre team, I'm personally sick of that, "Yay, we are the third or fourth best team in the AL East." That sucks! I think Elias is doing a great job! He is transparent for a GM. I find that refreshing. It is always about the money, sure. Owners are in the business to make money. And I believe they will spend responsibly when the team is ready to contend.

Yeah, not much to see here. But why not take a shot on a guy like this? Costs nothing but coach hours. The Winter (virtual) Meetings are this coming week, I think? Maybe something will come along beyond the R5 draft, but then maybe nothing until February.

I admit that my expectations are aggressive, no doubt. But that is what I expect from their talent and growth. Both are quite capable of taking the next steps and having these kinds of numbers.

I expect them both to continue improving their swing decisions. As they do that, their OBP and slugging will increase. I also believe Hays was miscast as a lead off hitter out of necessity. I think it took away some of his aggression, but perhaps it was good for his growth in plate discipline. I expect Hays to settle on his set up and the mechanics of his swing. He constantly changes things. In 2019 Spring training, before his hand injury, he was swinging the bat at an elite level with his hands a little higher and back near his load position. In 2020, he changed his hands set up to lower and hands more in front, causing him to be late often and without as much power. I expect Hays to play LF as much as he plays CF, with an occasional DH, which hopefully helps him stay healthy. I expect Santander to play primarily in RF, with some DH. Numbers wise, I think both will improve. Santander should be in the .280/.350/.550/.900 range. Hays .270/.340/.500/.840. Hays has every tool and can be a star, but his all out nature as an OF is a blessing and a curse. He has to understand situations and the importance of saving that for when it really matters.

You have called Mike Elias a liar several times in your posts in the past few days. You have repeatedly said this was a bad decision. You are entitled to your opinion, as we all are. Despite several posters trying to explain the logic to you intelligently, you remain steadfast in your criticism and that any opinion you do not share is not legitimate. The opinion of 30 major league teams is that he is not worth his projected arbitration salary. Is that legitimate? I am done. We have beat this to death. Down arrow me again, I dig it. I wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I think we should argue with other people for a while. I need space. ?

If you say so, Rob. It’s not an argument. It is fact since Mike Elias released him in favor of others. There are still several decisions to be made, subtractions and additions. Before you have a coronary event, maybe wait a bit and see what else Mike Elias has in store. Maybe he knows something you don’t know. Or maybe he’s just a lying idiot like you say. Whatever.

Shaw has nothing to do with Nunez. There is no correlation at all. Shaw should be DFA’d at some point, probably soon. He can be outrighted. You’re not supposed to get excited about a move like this. It’s a potential depth move, with a big LH power upside if he can make some larger improvements. Chances are slim he can do that, but why not take a shot? He’ll be in AAA, unless he makes huge strides. And he does remind me of Chris Davis quite a bit. I am not sure if Nunez was making what Valaika is due, projected around $1 million, that he would still be an Oriole. I doubt it. Roster space is one thing, roster flexibility is another, but he just would not have gotten the at bats. They need the at bats for Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays, Santander, Stewart, Mullins and Diaz when he comes up. Yes, some injury history in there, sure. But the upside and potential value in that group can only be developed with experience. They need these guys to get their at bats. They are all potential members of the next competitive team the Orioles have. And like 2020, Iglesias, and several others, might get some at bats at DH. Why keep a guy around with no options, whose only tool is his bat, when he’s not going to get at bats? I think that is smart, not cheap. Now if they did that to Mancini, that would be cheap. Without the albatross of the Davis contract, I still think Nunez is out. He needs to be a regular to be productive, he’s not a bench guy.

I agree with that. That is why I wrote, “not right now anyway.” These are different times, but Nunez will likely end up an opportunity. I am not sure that he will get more than a minor league deal with a Spring invite. He’s a flawed player, no doubt, but he can have serious exit velocity when he strikes the ball. Maybe he should go to Japan, where he would mash.

Different Wander. This one is with the Twins. I seriously doubt this one is taken by the Orioles. Way too far away, but certainly has tools.

I was talking about a singular swing, one, when referring to the video I was watching. And you are correct, but then you have to try to find out why that is? Maybe contact lenses helps, or eye exercises, or what have you. His K rate in the minors is just under 28%, so yeah, that's bad. And yet he still has a career minor league OPS of .861. Being that he played in the PCL probably skews that a bit, but the power is legit. We'll see what Elias does with him.

A good swing is not defined by the results. Also, remember that SF Giants are not know to produce good young hitters through draft and development. If you are the Orioles, you have to believe in your coaches and development staff when compared with other teams. With this much in his tank, you have to take a shot on a big power guy like this. I watched some Spring Training at bats as well. He hit 4-5 HR's in the last few years. One video had him on the same field as Hanser Alberto in February 2019, lol.

No team was willing to pay that, so I guess he isn't worth that, not right now anyway. ?

He has an .861 career OPS in the minors. .279/.340/.520/.861 https://www.mlb.com/player/chris-shaw-622046?stats=career-r-hitting-minors&year=2020 https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-shaw/17738/stats?position=OF

Have you seen him play, or maybe watched video of Shaw? I am about 30 minutes into it, and there is a lot to like and some to not. The major league stats, no. But the 6-04 225-230 pound athletic frame and 70 power that he has shown throughout his minor league time, yes. Looks like the hands work well. His load can be late, sometimes gets the foot down late, and he gets long at times. He sometimes has a leg kick, sometimes not. Maybe get him to simplify the lower half and take some of the hand load out to simplify his timing. He looks like a pull hitter, at least in the Fangraphs spray chart in his MLB time. He moves well for a big guy, but a 40-45 runner. Arm looks like about a 50. I can see why they took him. He has an option, whereas Nunez did not. LH power bats are not a common thing. If they like him, they may not waive him for a while, despite the nearly 50% k rate in 82 MLB at bats. Someone else will grab him. I just watched him hit a 468 foot home run , albeit in Colorado, but it was a bomb. https://www.mlb.com/player/chris-shaw-622046?stats=career-r-hitting-minors&year=2020 https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-shaw/17738/stats?position=OF

Looks like a guy they may DFA and pass through waivers, if possible. I know very little about him, but perhaps he is a guy who needs an adjustment or two from what video they have watched on him. I will be watching some video tonight at work. He is a LH power bat, which we have very few. Why not take a look and see what you have? What did it cost? Eshelman, maybe? Not one of the other 29 teams claimed Renato Nunez. Not one team thinks he is worth what he will get in arbitration. This is my shocked face. It's a waiver claim, good grief. Lots of predictable posts in this thread, ?. Happy Thanksgiving!

It's hard to say whether or not the Orioles will take a rule 5 pick. So many unknowns and a lack of recent data and observation. They pick 5th, and they would have to really like the talent to take one, I think. They have the room on the roster if they want one. It may be more likely they pick up a waiver claim, maybe even find a bargain free agent on a one year deal. If you find an upgrade to Ruiz that makes sense, great. Do it. I see him staying for now because, as Tony said, a quality 3B is hard to come by. He's a LH bat on a team that is RH dominant, and his defense is better than what 2020 bared. Also, Valaika might get consideration for more time at 3B. I am curious what he would produce with regular playing time there, instead of being at a different position each day. Fangraphs has his 2020 season valued at $1.9 million, so his arbitration estimate of $1.1 is probably going to be seen as reasonable. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pat-valaika/14885/stats#standard

It’s behind a pay wall. I got rid of that subscription for now. Anyone we should know about beyond Sedlock?

MLB Traderumors projects about $4.8 million. We’ll see what they agree to, but I seriously doubt it will be more than that. If I had to guess, I would think it will be just a bit lower where they settle. Who knows at this point?

No, no he doesn’t. And that is the point. For him to be productive, he needs to be in the lineup regularly with at around 400 at bats. He is not a guy that can sit for a week and grab a bat, get in the box and have good timing. He would be taking those at bats from young players we need to keep developing and Mancini.

If you had to pick between Mancini and Nunez, who would you take? I would take Mancini, even with some lingering questions about his health. He is worth the salary he is projected to make. To me, Mancini coming back to a role as a 1B/DH makes Nunez expendable. It is that simple. I am not going to pay Nunez to sit the bench next to Davis and have two holes on the roster. You cannot afford to do that and expect to make progress. If they re-signed Nunez and sat him on the bench, you would be bitching all year about the horrible waste of Money by Elias. This is still not going to change your mind, but I had to say it anyway.

I agree. The only counter point I have to this is with regards to Mullins in CF, Hays can take less of a beating and maybe stay healthy for the first time in his career. He needs to do that badly. His all-out style in CF makes him, and it might break him. I think Mullins covers more ground, and more efficiently, but with less arm and less offensive potential. I think Hays is star material, but he has to stay healthy to get there. And I think the DH will be rotated, but perhaps Stewart should get the most consistent at bats there initially.

I can agree with this. If you can upgrade at 3B, you certainly do it if that new player has a chance to be on the next competitive team in Baltimore. Not just some retread failure from another team. Outrighting him is only if/when you waive him and he is not selected by another team. His option is only used if he remains on the 40 man roster. You will not usually find a serviceable 3B in the R5 draft. We might see a waiver claim, or some kind of trade perhaps. Not to be a broken record, if you're not going to put too much stock into 2020 short season, then you have to throw out the errors in 2020 as well. You are obviously not a fan of his, but I do think he is coming back. He may end up in AAA, using his last option, but to your point I think he would likely clear waivers and be outrighted to AAA.

I do not know what we don’t know...! ? He knows what the doctors, experts and Trey are telling him. Do you? Do you know what guys will be injured? You listen to what your trainers and coaches and scouts tell you. You are right, though, unathletic DH’s do not often get injured. He is much closer to the situation. Elias knows the intricate metrics, he knows the player attitude, habits and abilities much better than an outsider or fan knows. I can go on and on, but it won’t matter to you. I think it’s a great decision. We can agree to disagree on this one.

We can disagree a little on this. He did have 32 RBI’s to lead the team last year, tied with Santander. 32 RBI’s in two months is pretty solid production. And the throwing errors are not characteristic of him. Usually a strong accurate arm. I think he was dinged up, maybe a shoulder or a minor oblique. Either way, he is on thin ice. All depends where his head is when he comes to Spring.

Elias is making decisions with a lot more information than you and I have on these matters. These are educated assumptions on his part, like how you expect Nunez to continue to be an .800-ish OPS, which is really below average for someone who has no defensive value. You are assuming the league has not, or will not have, figured him out. The way I see it, Nunez would have gotten about 500-600 plate appearances last season absent COVID. Elias, and many others here, believe that the team is better served with the outcome of those at bats split among other young players who have more value for the money they earn and will be a part of the next competitive team the Orioles field. Why waste those opportunities on a guy that will not be here at that time? Why coach a guy who has not shown any interest in playing defense since Bobby Dickerson left? It IS about roster flexibility. We can have an extra infielder, or an outfielder. Like you said, several players need to show they can stay healthy. Santander, Hays, Iglesias just to name a few. Having guys who can spell them to nurse a nagging injury before it becomes something more major would be nice, no? I find Mike Elias to be quite honest about the things he can be for a GM. The most dishonest things he has said is mostly the nice comments he makes about players he trades or releases. I mean he could point out how badly flawed they are, or how poor their work ethic is, or how they are not coachable, or how we simply have better players now that will make our team better. To say Elias is lying, and then point out that he telling the truth “to a point”...I’m speechless. He simply does not think Nunez is worth the money he would receive in arbitration. Just like the Rays did with Renfroe. Its business, of course it’s about money. That is why you need someone to make educated assumptions and spend what little resources you have wisely.