Jammer7

Thank you! I am with you on Zimm. I just think they'll want the vets to work every fifth day in their comfort zone, at least initially, to see where it takes them in May or June. And I think Matt Harvey could eventually have success as late inning reliever, while focusing on two or three pitches. Perhaps a velo bump and his competitive nature would make him pretty tough in short stints. Would he embrace it?

It is still way too early to be definitive about nearly half of the pitcher spots. We just do not know what will happen in the next month. I do care, maybe a moderate amount, about the OD roster, but I am certainly more concerned about how it looks in August. I had nothing to do, so I'll take a shot at it. The following seem solid bets: 1B - Trey Mancini 2B - #Yolmer Sanchez SS - #Freddy Galvis 3B - *Rio Ruiz UT - Pat Valaika C - Pedro Severino, *Chance Sisco OF - Austin Hays, *Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, #Anthony Santander SP - John Means, Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin Pen - Cesar Valdez, Hunter Harvey, Tanner Scott, Paul Fry, Shawn Armstrong (Harvey, Fry and Scott all have at least one option remaining) That accounts for 11 position players and 8 pitchers so far, 19 total. It seems pretty solid that if Chris Davis is on the IL to begin the season, DJ Stewart makes the team and gets a lot of DH at bats. Ramon Urias gets my vote to be the 13th position player as a UT if we keep only 13 pitchers. Urias can really hit gap to gap, but his glove work at SS is suspect. I think they keep him for now and keep working him next to Galvis and Sanchez every day to see if he can grow. His hands are suspect to me sometimes, and then he makes a very slick play to make me scratch my head. Jahmai Jones, Rylan Bannon and Tyler Nevin all go down with Richie Martin to AAA. They all have things to work on and there is no need for any of them to sit on the bench in Baltimore right now. The other starting pitcher candidates are: (Need 2, maybe 3) Felix Hernandez - (NRI) Matt Harvey - (NRI) *Wade LeBlanc - (NRI) Jorge Lopez - Out of Options *Bruce Zimmermann - 3 options remaining The other pen candidates are: (Need 3, maybe 4) Travis Lakins Sr. (2 options) Dillon Tate (2 options) Cole Sulser (3 options) Isaac Mattson (3 options) Mac Sceroler (R5) Tyler Wells (R5) (Jorge Lopez) (*Bruce Zimmermann) Ashton Goudeau - (2 options) *Fernando Abad (NRI) Eric Hanhold (2 options) Cody Carroll (1 option) We all know it is early and a lot can happen. (The bolded names are my 26 picks.) Right now, I have Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey filling out the rotation. Hernandez' health concerns me with his year of inactivity and velo drop, but he is crafty enough to get by for now and see what his velo does in the next month or two. Harvey will likely get a chance to go North so Holt can see what he can do to turn him into an asset. If any starter is injured or falters completely, LeBlanc would likely get a shot. But I see him on the outside, looking in, for now. I would rather have Zimmermann get an opportunity to start over one of them, but keeping him as a long man will get him a chance to break through and get a spot start here and there. Hyde seems to like Lakins and Sulser, so I give them the nod over Tate for now. Tate should be on the shuttle this year since he, Mattson, Lakins, Sulser and Zimmermann have option flexibility. The wildcard here is Abad. If Abad throws really well, do they keep four lefties in the pen? IDK. And he certainly has no roster flexibility, but he may be a commodity in June/July. Hunter Harvey, Fry and Scott all have options too, but I do not expect any of them to be sent down I think Lopez will be cut. He will still tantalize, at times, and he'll aggravate with his ability to find the middle of the plate at other times. I think he is soft. No options, no room for his lack of command. The Rule 5 guys will get a solid look, I think, but they will be returned. I think they are both intriguing profiles, particularly Tyler Wells. But unless they trade for them, they are gone. We will need the two roster spots as well for Hernandez and Matt Harvey. There is a good likelihood that Elias picks up a waiver claim between now and the end of Spring. Secretly, that is what we are all waiting for. Wild prediction...The first catcher called up from AAA? Nick Sciuffo comes up when the Orioles need him to replace Sisco. Either for injury, or they just grow tired of his lack of energy and ability to be a major league catcher.

I think that characterization is a little misleading. What does that mean, really? Is it that he projects to an average major league CF with speed? I would take that.

Absolutely, and I really like Hyde. I felt bad for him in this. It is what it is, but it’s a tired act. I have watched all of the zoom interviews until today. I watched Hyde, and that was it. I have lost all respect for Davis since his last interview. That was my final straw.

The look on Hyde’s face and the pain with which he answered the questions is all you need to know. Hyde is done with Davis’ tired act. I want to play Hyde in poker.

Absent a major collapse by Valaika, probably. But that was always the goal, and to get Martin a half season or more in AAA.

There is usually some adjustment there, initially. I remember Nick Markakis had that surgery and he came back with less power initially. It got better, but I am not sure he was the same ever again. Others have had a complete recovery, however.

Nah, he said it yesterday about Matt Harvey.

I have mostly seen Martin listed as an OF by the Blue Jays. I know they drafted him as a SS, but that is not where he will be. We have debated this ad nauseum, but what it comes down to is differing opinions that will not change until this plays out in a few years. After watching a good bit of video on Kjerstad, the bolded part is where I am. Elias said the same thing when he drafted him. He just needs to prove it. When he does, the same dissenting talking heads will say they thought he was great all along. Yawn...

Yeah, sigh... They made a call on a 28 year old smaller corner OF, plagued by injuries, who had never done anything like this in the minors. Sure, he could have had a shot. But they thought Yaz was a non-prospect and traded him. He had not been a prospect in a few years. They thought the guys they have were more likely to produce better numbers. No one took him in the rule 5, so they obviously were not alone. They did not count on injuries to Hays and Diaz, or the struggles of Mullins and Stewart. Or the games played would have looked a lot different. Smith was generally regarded as a much better potential hitter than Yaz. Another injury, a bad one in a collision with the fence, caused serious issues with his neck and shoulder. I do not think that I have ever read what a terrible lazy OF he had become before coming to Baltimore. Before the injury, I thought he was a bit below average defensively. After the injury, he was possibly the worst defensive OF I have ever seen. Worse than Kevin Mitchell at the end of his career. Elias was wrong. So was every other team. Good for Yaz. Every team gets one wrong now and then. I’m not sure he is a “star.” Not yet. But I would certainly like to have that one back. I bet Elias would too. Next.

I believe Elias said they would start him a little later during camp.

He’s one of the guys that Matt Blood mentioned from Instructs. And I believe another player mentioned him in an interview as well. He and his former Stanford teammates, Handley and Stowers, have a big year coming. They all need to show major improvements or risk getting left behind.

That was not what it seemed at the time. And looking back did not change the way I interpreted several comments questioning Kjerstad’s commitment to playing baseball. Some of the posters in that thread should be ashamed of themselves. Just ridiculous.

He was the best player on that Hagerty HS team, I don't know about the best arm. I don't think so. They always have talent all over the field. Many of the high schools in this area do. I am a little spoiled that way. Jeff Driskel, (NFL QB) a few years before him. Zach Eflin was a few years before him as well. And that team is always very talented. The school was established in 2005 and has a three first rounders (Riley Green, Mountcastle, Eflin), and several others drafted recently. They took a little more than half of the Oviedo HS talent pipeline when they started that school.

Holt was just beginning to get to a position in the Astros organization to begin to dictate things as Assistant Pitching Coordinator. Perhaps there were things he took from the Astros, and then he had his own ideas that he now gets to administer. It has to play out for us to know. The jump from a 1980’s esque development program to where we are now, just two years later, is responsible for the jump in performance of so many minor leaguers. We will see if it is actually sustainable, or if the wear and tear becomes an issue. It is a great story of his rise. @Sports Guy I do not disagree with your stance, although I think they have been better than what you wrote. But not much better, really, when it comes to drafting and development. They inherited Keuchel and made him better, akin to John Means. I just hope Elias’ troubles with that have resonated with him and he has learned from those trials.

I seriously hope not. If he is, a lot of things went wrong.

Agreed.

Perhaps. They may do both. Santander has four more years of control. Depends on what he will cost them, certainly.

I will be fine with ONE of the group of Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc or Cesar Valdez starting every fifth day. To go along with Means, Kremer, Akin and Zimmermann (or Lopez), the veteran can eat some innings and hold a spot until June or July when Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Bradish and Smith may be ready. If two of them make starts regularly, it is troubling for me.

Probably correct, but something they may revisit over the next year. Duvall is up and down, not a longer term solution for them.

Where would he be in your top 30? Would you not agree he takes a big hit on his inability to stay healthy? Drafted in 2013, Harvey is now 26 years of age, he has pitched 267 innings total, 15 of which in MLB. About 112 of that in 2013-14. He had 82 innings pitched in 2019. He was injured again and totaled 8.2 innings in 2020. In his eight professional seasons, he has been relatively healthy in three of them. One (2019) of the past six years, he has been healthy. He is a talent, sure, when he is healthy. But is he really a prospect, regardless of his technical status? He’s been protected for a few years and did not have any high leverage scenarios in 2020 because Hyde felt he wasn’t right. With all of the other prospect inventory available now, I just cannot put him in there. Not even if he was still a starter. I have never seen any pitcher maintain any prospect ranking of note with a health history like that. Don’t get me wrong, I will be pulling for Hunter to return healthy and be the guy we want him to be.

I had forgotten that September does not count. Thanks for the research!

That would be foolish, it’s a good thing I didn’t do that. He did spend the whole two month season as clearly not the same guy, even he and Hyde said that. Harvey himself has spoken about his struggles to find himself in 2020. As I said in my original post, he cannot stay healthy. It is the same thing every year (for the past 4 years?) with him. At some point, he just isn’t a top prospect anymore. He has also been protected, limited innings and careful not to use him on back to back nights, etc... If you think he’s a top 15 prospect currently, cool. He is not in my top 30. I will root for him to become healthy and dominant like he was once purported to be capable of being.

Yes, and his velocity was down and his split was not effective at all. His k/9 was down significantly from about 15 to 6. An elite potential closer with 6 k/9? SSS and all, but the big thing is he just has not been healthy. If he stays healthy and throws at least 40 innings this year, then we'll see. I'm not throwing bricks at anyone who likes him more than me, but that was my reasoning.

If he is still a rookie, somewhere down around 27 or so, if at all. I would rather have him over Sedlock, ceiling-wise. He cannot stay healthy. That, and his struggles in 2020 take him out of there for me. No other lists I am aware of have him listed in the top 30 currently. But perhaps they all think he is no longer eligible like me. I also do not like to rank relievers very highly unless they are dominant and durable. His ceiling is that of a legitimate closer, sure. But his ability to get near his ceiling is in doubt until he shows he can stay healthy for more than a few months. His 2020 stats are pretty poor. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/hunter-harvey/15507/stats?position=P