Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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18 hours ago, Frobby said:
I should note that Tony originally didn’t list Harvey because he mistakenly thought Harvey had lost rookie status. When someone (I think it was me) pointed out that Harvey was still eligible, Tony decided not to amend the list, just because he was close enough to losing rookie status and because he’s already been on the list seven times. So, his absence from Tony’s list doesn’t necessarily reflect that he wouldn’t belong based on Tony’s evaluation of his talent.
Where would he be in your top 30? Would you not agree he takes a big hit on his inability to stay healthy? Drafted in 2013, Harvey is now 26 years of age, he has pitched 267 innings total, 15 of which in MLB. About 112 of that in 2013-14. He had 82 innings pitched in 2019. He was injured again and totaled 8.2 innings in 2020.
In his eight professional seasons, he has been relatively healthy in three of them. One (2019) of the past six years, he has been healthy. He is a talent, sure, when he is healthy. But is he really a prospect, regardless of his technical status? He’s been protected for a few years and did not have any high leverage scenarios in 2020 because Hyde felt he wasn’t right. With all of the other prospect inventory available now, I just cannot put him in there. Not even if he was still a starter. I have never seen any pitcher maintain any prospect ranking of note with a health history like that.
Don’t get me wrong, I will be pulling for Hunter to return healthy and be the guy we want him to be.
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2 hours ago, wildcard said:
Here is the criteria for being a rookie pitcher:
- 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues, or
- more than 45 days on a Major League active roster during the 25-man limit period (April-August), excluding time on the disabled list.
Harvey has spent a lot of time on the IL which does not count against his rookie status. Even if all of Sept 2020 is counted because it was a special season he has 44 days of rookie service.
Under those rules he is still a rookie.
I had forgotten that September does not count. Thanks for the research!
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51 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:
You are talking about a K/9 over fewer than 10 innings. And comparing it to a K/9 from fewer than 7 innings.
His fastball was down. From 98.3 MPH to 97.3. He is clearly broken.
Drawing any conclusions from 2020 is foolish.
That would be foolish, it’s a good thing I didn’t do that. He did spend the whole two month season as clearly not the same guy, even he and Hyde said that. Harvey himself has spoken about his struggles to find himself in 2020.
As I said in my original post, he cannot stay healthy. It is the same thing every year (for the past 4 years?) with him. At some point, he just isn’t a top prospect anymore. He has also been protected, limited innings and careful not to use him on back to back nights, etc... If you think he’s a top 15 prospect currently, cool. He is not in my top 30. I will root for him to become healthy and dominant like he was once purported to be capable of being.
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43 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:
He threw 8 and 2/3rds innings. Walked 2, struck out 6.
Allowed 4 runs.
His ERA was 2.35 three days before the season ended.
Yes, and his velocity was down and his split was not effective at all. His k/9 was down significantly from about 15 to 6. An elite potential closer with 6 k/9? SSS and all, but the big thing is he just has not been healthy. If he stays healthy and throws at least 40 innings this year, then we'll see. I'm not throwing bricks at anyone who likes him more than me, but that was my reasoning.
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1 hour ago, LTO's said:
Interesting, where would you rank him? I don't think anything in his time in the big leagues has shown me that he doesn't have elite set up man/closer potential. I think that deserves a top 15 prospect ranking.
If he is still a rookie, somewhere down around 27 or so, if at all. I would rather have him over Sedlock, ceiling-wise. He cannot stay healthy. That, and his struggles in 2020 take him out of there for me. No other lists I am aware of have him listed in the top 30 currently. But perhaps they all think he is no longer eligible like me. I also do not like to rank relievers very highly unless they are dominant and durable.
His ceiling is that of a legitimate closer, sure. But his ability to get near his ceiling is in doubt until he shows he can stay healthy for more than a few months. His 2020 stats are pretty poor.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/hunter-harvey/15507/stats?position=P
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Solid and defensible list, most of it anyway. Two players, beyond Bradish, caught my eye immediately.
Bruce Zimmermann at #14 is interestingly much higher than anywhere else. A little surprised to see him up there, but ok.
Hunter Harvey has just over a year (1.047) of MLB service time, according to Fangraphs/Rosterresource. How can he still be a Rookie? Baseball reference has his rookie status as exceeded, https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=harvehu01&year=2019&t=p Only 15 MLB innings in 17 games. He has to have had more than 45 days on the active roster, no? And his rank of #13 is my one disagreement. He's not that guy anymore, not right now anyway.
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5 minutes ago, NCRaven said:
Santander had his hearing yesterday. Wonder when we'll find out the results.
I was wondering the same thing. It is usually quick.
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A few quick preliminary thoughts. There is some interesting video of him out there. I found the YouTube video showing his at bats from AFL 2018. The first thing that jumped out at me is his grip of the bat. He is "over-gripping" and he looks as though he ties himself up a bit and cannot seem to get full extension at contact. I don't like the hands before load and at load. Reminds me of Gary Sheffield some here. Powerful lower half, but does not use it well. A big leg kick, and long stride.
All of that said, I looked at the limited 2020 video. All of that is from the CF camera. Looks like they freed his hands up and got the load to where the barrel is behind his head with some wrap. He seems to have gotten rid of the leg kick and now has no stride. He does not use his lower half much in the 2020 video I saw. He has good hand-eye, and strong wrists. Is getting through the ball better now that he isn't tied up.
I like him. Seems like he has tools and needs a lot of work at 2B. I like the offensive upside. He looks like he can hit gap to gap line drives all day. In one video, he hit a 99 mph 2-seam from the Dodgers Carrot Top (May) into CF on a line for a single. He looks a little uncomfortable on defense, like Richie Martin did at times in 2019. But he's an athlete and once he slows the game down some I think he'll be fine. If he can get his lower half in sync, he may be a legit starter on a playoff team in a few years.
https://www.mlb.com/video/search?q=Player+%3D+["Jahmai+Jones"]+Order+By+Timestamp+DESC
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I am happy for Hanser, seems like a really good guy. Also glad the Orioles have moved on.
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49 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Whoever it is over at third, it can’t be Ruiz.
Leaving him there as a starter would be the laziest and dumbest decision of the offseason.
I think it is likely Ruiz at 3B, at least for the first few months. Valaika should probably get a shot there, but unless Ruiz shows up in poor shape or has a terrible Spring, I think it is him. Ruiz is likely on his last chance with Baltimore. He does have an option. He is a guy that has a confidence problem, and maybe getting some time at AAA would do him some good. That said, if Ruiz was DFA’d, I would not be surprised.
Bannon is 5’-07” and Elias has stated he wants to see him at 2B. I am not against him at 3B, but I do want to see what he does in AAA for half a season. I think he would be more valuable long term at 2B, unless he shows he cannot handle 2B defensively.
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3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
How does strength make you better at 3B? from what I heard, he's very stiff and doesn't have an accurate arm to be a 3B at the major league level.
In the small amount of video I saw, he just looked to not be athletic. Slender upper body, as though he does not do much conditioning. I know Elias is big on that. I want to see the strength, along with more core and leg strength, to hit the ball with more authority. I did not say strength would improve his defense, although core and leg strength would. As far as the stiffness, perhaps some much better stretching would help.
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2 hours ago, Frobby said:
Is it clear Nevin starts 2021 in AAA? His .744 in AA wasn’t overwhelming. I could see that going either way.
I agree. Mike Elias did say at the time of Nevin’s acquisition that he would likely be the 1B man at Norfolk in 2021. Personally, I would like to see him get stronger and get another crack at 3B.
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
The Galvis signing makes more sense knowing this.
Roch quoted Elias from a zoom call saying that they already had an agreement with Galvis before the injury. Said it had nothing to do with it.
He also said Martin may miss some Spring, but it would not affect his start of the regular season.
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55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Let’s say this is the truth..that’s still awful that you need to stretch out 2.5M over multiple years to fit a mediocre, cheap player under your payroll.
I won’t argue with that. We could speculate deep into the weeds on this. Maybe he is exploring signing Andrelton Simmons, which would require stretching pennies into copper wire. Who knows. I will say that you his does not disgust me, nor does it alarm me. It did raise an eyebrow, however.
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8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
It could be...
Actually, nah. No way. It must be the worst possible scenario because Angelos.
My bad. As you were.
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20 hours ago, weams said:
Me too. The covid seems to be catching up to a lot of us.
Get well soon, Weams!
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Was this simply just an effort by Elias to stretch the 2021 payroll to sign a FA SS or starter he has in mind? I just cannot think that Elias would sign Sanchez and Valaika for nearly $2 million combined if money was THAT tight.
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9 hours ago, Roll Tide said:
My Birthday....The Big Five-OH
Happy Birthday! Welcome to the club.
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57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
You have no idea how talented the team will be in 2022 to make that assumption. I’m expecting a contending team (for a WC ) in 2022.
Either way, we aren’t replacing great players in Mancini and Santander. The team can still win without them.
I have as much of an idea and opinion as you do. A WC spot would be a pleasant surprise, but that is optimistic in my opinion.
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5 hours ago, MurphDogg said:
If Martin Cervenka made the Majors, he would become the fifth MLB player born in (what is now) the Czech Republic, the first since 1952 and the second since 1914.
You will not get this content anywhere else.
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35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
You would think we are trying to replace first ballot HOFers in their prime.
After 2014, the Os lost guys like Cruz and Markakis and were contenders for the playoffs in 2015 and made it in 2016.
When Pujols left St Louis, they went to the playoffs anyway.
Teams lose players all the time, better ones than Mancini and Santander and somehow, I guess through a series of miracles according to how it seems LookinUp looks at things, are able to overcome those losses.
That 2015 team had other guys step up to carry the load, but I do not know that Travis Snider and Delmon Young replaced anyone. That cite by you actually undermines your point.
The current roster only has a few professional hitters in Mancini, Santander and probably Mountcastle. There is talent elsewhere, and we expect growth from Hays and Severino, and perhaps Diaz, Ruiz and Mullins. But the roster is nowhere near as talented as the former team you speak of. Those two guys are much more important to this team, production wise. That is not to say they cannot be replaced. I just don’t find it’s not as easy as your opinion states.
I also do not think the Orioles will be contending for a playoff spot until 2024 at the earliest. And I do not think either Santander nor Mancini will be in an Orioles uniform then. It is a little sad to think that, as I like both as players, but the business side of things dictates that keeping them is not the smart move. Elias is a smart fella.
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11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Didn't this already come out last year?
I believe you are correct. And no excuse for it. None.
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It would depend on the money involved, but I doubt we can afford what it would take. And really, a 2 year contract similar to Iglesias is about all I could see. A truly outstanding SS in his prime, not sure he can stay healthy enough to be a difference maker.
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17 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
There is definitely something to be said to waiting a year.
If he has a healthy 2021, I would say he will be a 2-3 WAR player. That should make him more valuable than he is now and that certainly could be part of the thinking.
My only issue with that is his injury history. I’m willing to gamble that we can get 75-80 cents on the dollar now (compared to what a healthy 2021 could bring us) vs waiting.
This was part of my initial thought process. Set the price high now, if they take it, do the deal. If not, we still have him and I believe his value will keep growing well.
As far as being a “core player,” he was voted the team’s most valuable player. That is about as CORE as it gets. Is he a core player on many contenders? That’s a separate question, and depends on the team.
Santander drawing interest
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Probably correct, but something they may revisit over the next year. Duvall is up and down, not a longer term solution for them.