Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Here’s hoping you are wrong about those guys, especially DL Hall.
Not knowing how they valued his work in Bowie last year, just my guess. Elias has shown to be conservative with his talent. If DL starts in AA, would that be too conservative though? I mean he has no time there yet. I will be disappointed if DL is not in Norfolk by mid July or so.
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10 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:
I’d have some questions if Henderson ends up in Frederick this season.
I’m curious too how the rosters are set after the missed season. Part of me feels like they might go “conservative” with stuff at first and bump players up semi early (after first month), since conservative seems to be an Elias standard.
Generally, I think he will be conservative with the higher end high school guys like Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Adam Hall or guys with higher ceilings. I think he’ll be apt to move up college guys like Cadyn Grenier, AJ Graffanino, Terrin Vavra, and some of the college arms from the 2019 draft. Take a little more time for the higher ceiling guys that could really benefit from the more gradual initial progression. Some of the moderate ceiling/moderate floor guys will be pushed up some.
I like the idea of Fenter in the Bowie pen. It should be interesting.
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I don’t completely disregard the traditional Spring stats, but almost. Ruiz had two doubles yesterday, one was an easy fly ball that should have been caught but got lost in the sun. The other was well struck and bounced off the track in the gap and into the stands. Some of the better pitching lines were against guys who will be in the minors soon.
I will say it is troubling if the pitchers are always behind in the count, walk a lot of guys, or get wild in the middle of the zone. Particularly if these pitchers are doing this from here until the end of Spring. Also troubling is if hitters are chasing pitches out of the zone regularly. This is the time when they need to clean things up. This is when the regulars start playing longer and have more normal at bats. This is when the pitchers have had time to get loose and work on some things, and now it’s time to get more dialed in. Some guys look bad in Spring, but they flip a switch in the regular season and all is good. I am just glad to have baseball back.
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Jake sure did have a phenomenal Spring. I do remember Buck not being impressed with Jake.
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It is a talented group, for sure. Ciuffo will get a lot of run at C, and Shaw might get a lot of time in LF and 1B. Nevin might do the same, and I’d like to see him get some time at 3B.
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We all have our opinions about how things should be done. In the end, what Elias, Sig, Hyde, Holt and the rest of a very smart and capable staff do will be in the best interests of the team, the players and the future of the organization. Some things are obvious, while other things are more subtle, need time and cultivation. There is a process to building a winning franchise from the ground up. And they have been pretty transparent about what they are trying to do.
Harvey apparently made some batters take terrible swings today with his new weapon, a 2 seam. That does not necessarily make him a Cy Young candidate, but it does show progress in the alteration of his attack of hitters. It shows growth. If he is able to improve his mechanics, pitches, command, and sequences, then he should produce better results if Holt and the analytics guys are actually good at their jobs. I believe they are excellent.
Maybe today was just an aberration, and maybe he still is terrible. Time will tell. Scouts and coaches will tell you that stats do not mean much, but the swings that good batters take tell you everything you need to know. Spring training is a time for guys to get loose, build up innings and strength, refine command and feel of their pitches. Managers and coaches recognize this and the track records of the veteran players and pitchers. Many major league stars struggle in the Spring and even into May. For instance, Eddie Murray was notorious for being a slow starter. Come June, he was the hottest bat around.
@PhilipSorry if my tone has been grumpy or dismissive tonight. My patience was a little thin earlier this evening. A colleague of mine lost a battle for his life and passed away. Far too many these days. I have no excuse.
I do enjoy discussions like this. We’ll see what happens. I may be totally wrong in my assessments and I will admit such if I am.
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1 minute ago, Philip said:
I appreciate your comment, but you’re a little unjust. It’s not that “I don’t want to see them become orioles” that’s a pretty ridiculous thing to assume, And I have given no grounds for the assumption.
I want the five best guys to go north, and I don’t think those two are among the five best guys.
Yes ST stats In themselves don’t mean a whole lot, but on the one hand you say Leblanc’s good spring means nothing, and then you say that Harvey was good today, implying that that means something. LeBlanc may get hammered if he makes the team, But he seems to be doing better than the other two. I’ve also been pleasantly surprised by Lopez.
I appreciate that velocity, locating pitches, working on things beyond getting outs, and the like are much more meaningful than results. I still think that Felix doesn’t deserve a spot, and Harvey probably does not, and LeBlanc can provide all that unquantifiable “veteran presence” a team needs.
But let me close by making it very clear what I have made clear before, I want the best five to go north, and if that includes both of these fellows, well that’s great and no one will be more pleased about it than I... Well, probably they will be, but you know what I mean.
See my previous post for explaining why you evaluating these men by their Spring stats is a terrible way to determine who the best 5 are.
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1 minute ago, Philip said:
I appreciate your comment, but you’re a little unjust. It’s not that “I don’t want to see them become orioles” that’s a pretty ridiculous thing to assume, And I have given no grounds for the assumption.
I want the five best guys to go north, and I don’t think those two are among the five best guys.
Yes ST stats In themselves don’t mean a whole lot, but on the one hand you say Leblanc’s good spring means nothing, and then you say that Harvey was good today, implying that that means something. LeBlanc may get hammered if he makes the team, But he seems to be doing better than the other two. I’ve also been pleasantly surprised by Lopez.
I appreciate that velocity, locating pitches, working on things beyond getting outs, and the like are much more meaningful than results. I still think that Felix doesn’t deserve a spot, and Harvey probably does not, and LeBlanc can provide all that unquantifiable “veteran presence” a team needs.
But let me close by making it very clear what I have made clear before, I want the best five to go north, and if that includes both of these fellows, well that’s great and no one will be more pleased about it than I... Well, probably they will be, but you know what I mean.
See my previous post for explaining why you evaluating these men by their Spring stats is a terrible way to determine who the best 5 are.
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2 hours ago, wildcard said:
Just a nit here. No one is going to Norfolk after major league ST. The alternate site will be in Bowie and the will be 24 to 26 players there in April. Games at Norfolk begin in May. Other then that I agree with your statement.
You are correct, sir. Old man brain. Thanks!
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On 3/15/2021 at 7:19 PM, Philip said:
With all due respect, there’s a lot to disagree with here. The Orioles are already giving Felix and Harvey opportunities to earn a spot and they are not doing so. Even if Harvey looks better than Felix, neither looks as good as a few other candidates. LeBlanc has done well, why would you want one of the others over him? He’s done better, and can also offer that sweet, sweet, “veteran presence.” Zimmerman’s had the best camp of anybody, why would you put him in the pen, especially over Felix or Harvey?
Harvey had a really nice outing today. LeBlanc did well last year and got smoked when the season started. Spring stats, with all due respect, mean very very little. But hey, you’re entitled to your opinion. We disagree.
Zimm has been great, sure. But they are also easing him into the year and his innings. He will certainly get some starts. I think he is a better starter long term than Akin, as I wrote earlier. He has faced some decent hitters, and also some reserves who will not be major leaguers in a few weeks. Success in the Spring means just about nothing when evaluating pitching.
A lot more goes into this than stats. How their stuff looks, how strong they are getting, if they are healthy, track record, who they actually face in these games that do not matter and they are not where they are going to be in the weeks and months to come. That evaluation is all based on the manager and coaches experience and they interpret data that you and I have no access to is many cases.
I get it, you don’t want to see Hernandez and Harvey become Orioles. You prefer LeBlanc. You’ve said it repeatedly. I read your comments previously. Whether you like it or not, there is value there with veteran experience and what they can impart to young guys, not to mention the value of what their improvement may bring on a trade market. Two former dominant pitchers have a lot to offer.
For the record, I did not want more than one vet starter going North coming into Spring. Then they signed Harvey, and I am intrigued. I wanted Zimm to earn a starter spot from the outset, but their process may preclude him starting right away. Zimm is also an optionable asset on a staff with few guys who can or would be optioned for a fresh arm in case they keep 13 pitchers only.
My guess is that Felix kinda is what he is at this point. Maybe he finds another tick or two, but he’ll find a way to compete on most days. Harvey has progressed some already with his use fo the two seam today. He hung two breaking balls today, and he paid. A lot of breaking balls get hung in Spring Training by even the best starters. Hyde said today that Harvey got a lot of ugly swings, and that is much better an indicator than meaningless March stats.
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Perhaps Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey and Fernando Abad make the team out of Spring Training. Or maybe one or two go to Norfolk for a few weeks, keep working on things and see what happens before potentially opting out. It isn't likely, but maybe Felix, in particular, agrees to see if the velo comes back some with a little more time working into game shape.
I admit that Felix is not looking even mediocre at the moment. But the Orioles will give him every opportunity to earn a spot. A lot can happen in two weeks. Matt Harvey and his new 2-seam may have elevated his chances today from the radio account of today's game. Count me in the group that thinks Matt Harvey has looked better than Felix, so far. The Orioles want M. Harvey and Felix to mentor the young guys and re-establish their value for trades, best case scenario.
I still think LeBlanc is on the outside looking in, and he is strictly a fall back option right now. I think Zimmermann is still in the pen to start, unless they move Akin to the pen, which may be his best place long term.
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42 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Exactly how I see it, Moosalini. We’re talking 2.5 rWAR, 4.8 fWAR in 2782 PA vs. 0.4 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR in 812 PA. Neither is anything to write home about but Franco is a tad better. So long as we’re not paying him much, I’m cool with it.
There was some conjecture by unknown people replying to some of Heyman's tweets that said it was 1 year/$1.2 million. Take that for what it's worth, of course. But I could see that as a base salary with more incentives.
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9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Is there a 162 day IL?
Back injuries work in mysterious ways...see you in September, CD.
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1 hour ago, SteveA said:
My recollection from past years is that there is a date in spring training, about a week before Opening Day, that you can retroactively back date DL stints to.
So t he truth is in between. You can't start the 60 day clock now, but there is a date you can start it that is before Opening Day. I do not know the exact date.
I posted about this on page 8, with a link. Basically, the Orioles can put CD on the 60 day IL during Spring Training or during the regular season. However, the player has to stay on the 60 day IL for at least 60 days of the regular season. So, cannot back date it.
Like you, I had the same thought and recollection.
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2 hours ago, wildcard said:
So if Franco is signing a major league contract now and the Orioles need to make space now, does that mean that they can't put Chris Davis on the 60 IL to make room now?
2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:Right..but I think they can retroactive it back.
I was wrong on some of this. The rule says you can put a player on the 60 day during Spring Training and throughout the season, just not the post season or off season. When someone is put in the 60 day IL, they must spend 60 days of the major league regular season on the 60 day IL. Minor league players have to wait to be put on the list when the season actually begins.
I think it usually happens right before Spring Training ends and the 26 man would be set. But if they need the space they could put CD on the 60 day IL as long as they replace his spot on the reserve list, aka 40 man roster. The 40 man has to be full.
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10 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
I was reading your comment and thinking why would the O's have any interest, but then your last sentence made me remember this glorious moment.
The single greatest moment in sports in that year.
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1 hour ago, wildcard said:
I thought I had read that the 60 days had to be during the regular season but I can't find that reference now so maybe its not true.
You cannot put anyone on the 60 day until the final opening day roster is set a few days before OD. I presume the clock starts then.
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27 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:
I think it’s a guy that you know can play ball at a solid MLB level. And let’s face it, if he and Ruiz both had a really strong first half, there’s a much better chance you can flip a hot Franco for a prospect than a hot Ruiz.
I do not disagree, but there is some drop off defensively. At 3B, you can live with that for better production.
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10 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Why keep him on the 40? He is the O's best backup 3rd baseman if Franco goes down with an injury. Plus with Hunter Harvey probably going on the 60 IL and Sceroler probably being returned they do not need the space.
We have plenty of fallback options. We do not need a back up 3B. Valaika would be just fine, or Urias. Wilkerson will do in a pinch beyond that. If Ruiz passes through waivers, outright him. Bannon is supposed to play 3B since Jahmai Jones is playing 2B with Richie Martin at SS. So, not sure where he could play everyday.
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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
I dont feel his defense is that much worse than Ruiz. Let’s not pretend Ruiz is some GG level player.
No one said Ruiz is a GG 3B. But he is a much better defender. I will be happy if Franco can just turn outs into outs. Make the routine play, but he struggles with that at times.
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4 hours ago, wildcard said:
O's don't need to DFA him. He has an option. They have Davis or Hunter Harvey who can probably be put on the 60 day IL. Ruiz can be depth at AAA in case of injury.
Why keep him on the 40 man? We need the roster space. I know he has options, but if you are going to make this move to sign Franco, then you have admitted Ruiz is not going to make it. Ruiz is not a prospect anymore, and he has no other position.
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7 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
Do they let Ruiz go? or keep him is the next question.
With Davis out he could play some 1st when he isn’t playing some at 3rd if he stays. Rio is not a typical bench type.
If Franco does sign, I would think Ruiz is DFA'd. If he clears, and he may well, you could send him to AAA.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
He’s a definite upgrade over Ruiz but it also doesn’t move the needle that much either.
Glad we will have someone over there that is an actual MLer though.
This is where I am on this. Perhaps they see some things they can improve, but his defense is going to make people wish Ruiz was still here.
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46 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Felix and Matt Harvey may not make it for OD. LeBlanc has a ways to go to be added as well. CD and Hunter Harvey may be on the 60 day IL. Sceroler could be offered back. I wonder if he Reds want to pay 50k to get him back.
Rumors that Franco will be added.
I think they will give Felix every opportunity to go North, but his velo is troublesome to me. 85 just won’t do it. He needs to 88-89 at least, I think.
Matt Harvey might even be behind LeBlanc right now, but I think Zimmermann is making both of them expendable. Zimmermann looks great today, so far. Harvey really needs to show some hope of command to go North.
It’s a fair question on the Reds taking him back or not. Probably do take him back, I think. $50K is not much and they may be able to work a deal for him that is worth more than $50K in value. Sceroler might be a guy we make a trade for after we waive and return him, that is if no one takes him on a waiver claim. Wells has a chance to stick, but another guy we consider trading for. Depends on what the Reds and Twins want.
I read the tweet by Heyman. Interesting potential add of Franco. I would have been ok with Ruiz for now, but maybe Franco’s price point and production was at the level Elias sees a return value in July or so.
Orioles Lose Zach Pop and Grey Fenter in Rule Five
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Interesting, how is that false? Making your prospects spend nearly a full season in each level is a conservative approach in modern times. He calls that conservative, himself, but I suppose you can call it something else. I won’t quibble about semantics. I’ll be over here shrugging my shoulders, sipping my bourbon.
Meanwhile, John Smoltz was speaking on MLB network a few days ago about Bobby Witt Jr. and stated he would tear up the minors and would be the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year. Now that is aggressive promotion.