Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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Joey Ortiz is my breakout candidate to crack the top 30. He was singled out repeatedly in various interviews during and after instructs.
Of those listed, I think Luis Gonzalez has a shot to be in the GCL this year. That LH power bat may just take off.
Another sleeper guy to watch is Andrew Daschbach.
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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Could mean dozens of more fans a game.
That is a 25% increase in attendance in that market.
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11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
So his final stats were deceiving because of an injury yet you want to point out an even smaller sample size to act as if those aren’t deceiving?
I don’t see the logic there.
I realize that, and I am not expecting him to keep that first half up over 150 games. I was just pointing it out. It is intriguing to see what he may be capable of. We agree that he needs to stay healthy to see just what he is capable. I do see legitimate growth and maturity in his game. We'll see what he does.
Perhaps the Marlins don't make a play for him. What other teams are in the market around the deadline? Perhaps my proposal was over the top for now. Just thought it was interesting and thought provoking.
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18 minutes ago, LookinUp said:
If Elias is making him available, either he doesn't believe in the profile that you're projecting or he thinks others really do believe in it and he can get good value.
If Bleday is a 40 speed guy, he better hit better than he did in 2019. Still, he was a VERY highly regarded prospect for a time. I'd really be shocked if Santander nets that type of value unless that star has fizzled.
That could be, sure. Or maybe Elias sees a good return for a guy that is going to get increasingly expensive before we are ready to compete for a playoff run. He wants to continue building the talent base. And he has Diaz knocking on the door, needing at bats. Perhaps they think Mullins is the CF and Hays belongs on a corner with Mountcastle. IDK.
Ideally, I would like to keep Santander and build around him, unless I am convinced he is at his peek in value as you allude to. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are very similar players, I actually think Kjerstad is a little better athlete and better overall hitter. Bleday has a stronger arm.
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10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Right..and btw, if they would trade Bleday for him, I would absolutely be convinced they think they are selling high and made a mistake drafting him.
That could be. Or maybe they think they can compete in 2021 and need a legitimate RF. A young controllable Latin American star in that market makes sense. Bleday is maybe a mid 2022 guy, I think.
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11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
That’s a completely unrealistic proposal for Santander. You should just say he’s untouchable.
4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:I think you can get 1 top 10 guy (more in the 6-10 range) and another top 15 guy...maybe you could also add a lottery ticket DSL guy. That’s about the most I would expect.
Fair enough, that is why I said I would start there. To move him now, that is where I would start. His final stats for 2020 (.261/.315/.575) were a little deceiving in that he played several games with an abdominal strain. Prior to that, he was (.287/.333/.661) in the first half of the season. With a BABIP of .261, would you say he may have hit into some bad luck?
Those prospects listed have no experience above A ball, and they are far from a sure thing. Misner has contact issues and Fulton is coming off TJ surgery. In mid-July, if Santander is healthy and picks up where he left off in 2020, I think that price is not far off at all. Healthy is a big factor, certainly. Perhaps Bleday is raking in AA and they just promote him to play RF.
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I'm a believer in Santander. I know he has had injury issues, and he needs to stay healthy. I really like the strides he made in his approach and swing decision making. He lowered his k rate from 21.2% to 15.2%. He showed maturity in his game and appears to have slowed the game down. I believe he is about to break out in a big way. A switch-hitting middle-of-the-order bat with plus RF defense and four more years of control is a very attractive package. No? And if the Marlins are interested in him, Kim Ng must agree.
Bleday has not played above A ball in 2019, 140 at bats in the Florida State League .257/.311/.379. The only knock on him is 40 speed. Everything else is above average or plus.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/marlins/jj-bleday-668709
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-santander/14551/stats?position=OF
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In Roch's blog this morning, he wrote about Santander being available for trade and drawing interest from the Marlins.
QuoteI’m working under the assumption that Santander stays with the club. I’ve heard that he’s drawing interest. A scout from another organization said, “He’s out there for trade.” Keep an eye on the Marlins, who are looking for a right fielder. And keep in mind that these talks happen every offseason and often lead to nothing.
I would doubt he goes anywhere before the deadline, but who would the Marlins have to send to the Orioles if they want Santander? I would start with JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner and Dax Fulton, and add a DSL player. If he stays healthy and has similar production to 2020, the price would go up. Thoughts?
https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/01/what-to-do-about-the-dh.html
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Enjoyed the article. Curious to see some of these guys like Welk, Watson, Stowers and Ortiz play after the year layoff. It was a costly year for the 2019 draftees, in particular.
Minor correction that Zach Watson was a junior at LSU in 2019 when drafted. He was a draft-eligible sophomore in 2018. He will be 24 on June 25.
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54 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
I think what some people fail to realize is how much the short season affected the normal draft rankings. Some guys like Kjerstad and Servideo were off to really good starts and had they kept it up through the entire season, they may have been ranked higher by pundits. It's hard to know were they off to great starts because they were playing the normal soft portion of the early season schedule, or was it genuine improvement.
Austin Hays is a good example of how a guy's great junior year shot up his draft stock, but because it was his first real success, some were still a little bit of a non believer so he was available in the 3rd round still.
All of these rankings have to be all considered with a grain of salt because of the lack of a minor league season and such short college and high school seasons.
The first part was what Elias spoke of immediately after the draft. I agree. I get the SSS skepticism, but it isn’t as much for me about the stats as it is about the process that Kjerstad showed in the video I watched. The mechanics and approach were much improved. Therefore, I think the success he had is sustainable. Not as confident in Servideo, but he is a toolsy guy I like where they got him.
A guy I have cited as a big junior riser who was similar is JJ Bleday. Andrew Benintendi is a very different player, but had a meteoric rise from obscurity as a junior.
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16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Nice.
I find it interesting that Heston Kjerstad is ranked that highly.
I don't think he was that well regarded before the draft and he certainly didn't do anything after the draft. Just a reaction to being drafted 1-2?
I agree that it is interesting, particularly since he hasn’t done anything formal with the team. Several draft analysts have given Kjerstad another look since the initial commentary after the draft. Some, like Jim Callis, have admitted they underrated him somewhat. None have said he was as talented as Austin Martin, but admitted he belonged in the top 5 or so picks. Industry chatter among scouts they speak with must have changed their opinions, I guess.
I also think they give a little more credence to the belief that Mike Elias is a very good talent evaluator and a shrewd decision maker. I wonder if Mountcastle’s unexpected performance by some bolsters the industry opinion of the Orioles player development group.
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Frobby, great work! I hope they find a compromise and come to an agreement quickly. This kind of stuff creates bad mojo with one of your best young players. The salary for Teoscar Hernandez surprised me. Great explanation as to why, but still much higher than I would have expected for an Arb 1.
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On 1/7/2021 at 1:44 PM, LookinUp said:
Not that anyone asked, but one guy I'm curious about this year is Kyle Stowers. Came with a decent college pedigree. Had some things to improve on. Brief debut. Here comes Covid.
Now it's 1.5 years later. What has he done? Fixed any issues? In theory he could be a very fast riser, but nobody's talking about him. I get it, but he's a curiosity for me.
Another, for the same reasons, is Zach Watson. Doesn't have the hit tool, but a plus defender. What if his hit tool improved over the last 1.5 years?
Interesting potential there.
As interested as I am in them as prospects, I may be more interested to see what they become to see what Elias sees/saw in them to draft them. What adjustments they will have them make. I want to see just how good Elias is in spotting talent that the development folks can turn around. This is a big year for the Orioles development crew.
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I can see Westburg or Baumann, absolutely. Looking further down the list, I think Joey Ortiz may be the most underrated and is my sleeper pick for 2021. I keep reading that he is stronger and vastly improved in his mechanics and approach. Elias and Blood have gone out of their way several times to praise him and his improvements. We'll see. Kyle Bradish may be the other who makes a big leap.
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Thanks for sharing that. A very defensible top 50. Superficial commentary, but an informed fan.
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56 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
And by no means do the Orioles have the market cornered there.
Yes, Xander Bogaerts and Jurickson Profar would have been nice, to name a few.
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
If Coby Mayo had signed for slot (565K) would Tony have ranked him #15 in the prospect list?
You would have to ask Tony, but I assume it has much more to do with the scouting report than the figure he signed for. IDK
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23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
No, of course you should/can.
But understand that most of the time, the rankings are bs and sometimes, very biased.
Don’t get so wrapped up in them and act as if you don’t follow them, you have somehow made a big mistake.
I agree, in general, with what you have said in these threads I do not think the lists are complete BS, but to be taken with a grain of salt. These lists are for fans, public consumption, not for industry professionals. Once you get past the top group of elite guys, everything else is based on projection. Certainly, personal bias plays a role.
Badler and Sanchez are pretty well-connected and seem to put out solid lists these past few years. They both go to events and talk with scouts. I have personally seen Ben Badler at events here in the US, talking with scouts. As to what or how much he is told, IDK.
I will say that it seems like the bonus amounts sometimes dictate or greatly influence rankings. Maybe there is a little something to that, depending on the team and their evaluation process. If the Dodgers or Rays give a kid $2 million, it is more credible to me than if it is the Brewers, Mets, or many others.
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Great work as always!
I am curious to see what impact the new technology (track man, etc...) deployed down there and the increased tournament/showcase events will have on the accuracy of evaluations and success rates of teams signings. Things have changed tremendously in the past 5-6 years in how players are measured and evaluated.
Also, teams have put much more into infrastructure and player development internationally. They have revamped the nutritional intake of players and the strength and conditioning programs. They have made a much greater effort to educate the players in many facets of life in the US, including teaching them English. All of these initiatives may help the success rate of international signings and help the teams spend money more wisely. It’s one theory anyway.
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Teams get commitments from the top guys at 14-15 years of age for X amount of bonus. A big portion of that money goes to the buscones. The buscones have contracts with the kids that outlines their payment %. In return, the buscones house, feed, coach, school, cloth and basically parent the kids for a few years. Some buscones have relationships with particular teams and more money from other teams does not sway the kids as they will be easily influenced by what the buscones want them to do.
So the idea of we should just throw money around and sign as many “top rated” kids as possible will not work, and honestly is foolish. Great scouting and the ability to develop relationships with the buscones and the kids is where this effort pays off initially. It is like college recruiting. Then, they have to actually prove they can develop the talent to MLB.
@Sports Guy has a good point that he has made several times. Often the best players are later bloomers and sign for lesser bonus amounts. Often, kids peak early and never really get better for whatever reason. Judging kids at 14-15 as to what they will become is really tough. I do not envy scouts on that job.
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11 hours ago, Roll Tide said:
It’s already been pointed out. I’m a moron, have no credibility, and am clueless.
I had not read the rest of the thread until after my response. My comments were a little less critical, but poking a little fun. Easy mistake.
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5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:
So there are 32 teams and the best talent you can talk into signing or willing to pay enough to sign with you is the 30-35 best available player.
Imagine the MLB draft every year if the Orioles were forced to pick somewhere in the 30-35 range. Would you sign up for that?
32 teams? Did I miss something?
Yes, if it is a major improvement over what has been the status quo for decades. Drafting 30th would be a dramatic improvement if you had been drafting around 200th for 20 years, no? I get your point, certainly valid. But to build this program from the ground up in two years...it is impressive to me. You cannot just go there and throw around money. It takes time to build relationships and trust with the buscones/handlers/trainers and the families of the kids. They had to hire essentially a complete new scouting staff and revamp the infrastructure completely.
Read up on Hernandez and Basallo. Not much video out there.
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There is some sentiment that Maikol Hernandez could end up being one of the better prospects in this J2 class. He is just not as polished as some of the higher ranked SS’s. A 6-03 175 lb. SS, who gets some comparisons to Correa and ARod for his smoothness, arm and power potential. Mostly a line drive hitter, gap to gap, at present.
And Basallo is the highest rated catcher in the DR. A LH hitting catcher at 6-03 200 lbs, he has a very strong arm and a power bat. There is some concern that he outgrows catcher down the line.
There are a few more signings around the level of the highest ones in 2019, bonuses in the the $400k plus range. One is a LH power hitting corner OF, the name escapes me at the moment.
The first two generally rank in the top 30-35 in BA and MLB. Overall, from what I have read, it is a well regarded class with the top group being their best prospects in a long time to sign internationally. And that is BA’s Ben Badler and the MLB guy, Jesse Sanchez, saying that. If that is bargain bin stuff, sign me up.
Koby Perez has stated that next year’s class is going to be where they make a big splash as most of the top guys have been committed for two years. I think they have done an outstanding job establishing relationships and credibility thus far.
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On 12/26/2020 at 9:58 PM, BohKnowsBmore said:
I’ve never thought his bat looks slow. It looks like he whips it through the zone imo. Perhaps this could create holes in his swing, but I don’t think it’s ever appeared to me that he was particularly slow with the bat.
Maybe it isn’t necessarily slow. It looks that way to me, but that could be his decision process and/or pitch recognition.
Santander drawing interest
in Orioles Talk
Posted
No, but Dan Duquette gamed his Rule 5 time. lol