Jammer7

Good stuff! Thanks. I like this move, solid upside with limited risk. I wonder about his health.

What is his 4S spin rate? And, do you see a mechanical adjustment/tweak that can get a better spin rate? Is that something that as a reliever could increase where he could just rear back and let it eat?

I thought Taylor Grover was too, but he’s no bueno.

Very interesting stuff all around. Thanks for all of your hard work! i was wondering what you may think about a comp of Buddy Reed and Cameron Maybin? For me, that may be Reed’s realistic ceiling.

I doubt the Orioles would select a pitcher with no shot at competing this year though, so Valdez and all the other single A pitchers are likely not going to be selected by Baltimore. They’d likely go with a guy like Barlow, or perhaps the lefty that Luke brought up On another thread. Name escapes me right now.

I just thought we pretty much added a rule 5 type with Marcos Diplan. And we added Isaac Mattson from the Angels. My two picks for position player would be Wander Javier and Buddy Reed. Each would fill a bench role with a lot of development to do. Both are premium athletes and Reed is an excellent CF. Javier has all the tools, but a long way to go developmentally. I looked at Esteury Ruiz of the Padres, but I would want a better defensive player. Though his offensive upside seems considerable. That said, Luke has been dissecting video on the pitchers, and I will defer to him. There is a few interesting names out there. But Dauris Valdez has huge upside.

And I would be great with that, personally. He’s a talented kid that had some injuries, mostly a non-throwing shoulder labrum tear. He was a $4 million signing bonus. And the Orioles can steal him for $100,000. I want him, Buddy Reed and Jose Fermin.

I lean to position players as well. But with Chris Holt's impact on the system, I am more open to a polished power college pitcher. If Torkelson can play a solid 3B, or even corner OF, I would say the decision is easier. I am curious to see if a legit HS player enters the picture. I know we expect Elias to favor college players, but we'll see who pops up in his evaluation.

Ok, cool. Thank you. Clay's HR rate really jumps at you, and the sink would explain that. I did see a bit of Zack Britton there, just not the velo. Did he scrap the CB, and just go sinker/slider? Would you take Clay over Burrows?

I am torn on the Villar waiver, and perhaps non-tender. I hardly think Elias is a buffoon as one poster said, but I understand the emotion. I find it very hard to believe that he had any market for him at all in July, and the same now. If no team claims him on waivers, are all GM's buffoons? They all have the same decision to make, is Villar worth $10.5 million for 2020? If he clears waivers, and perhaps we re-sign him to a reasonable amount. Maybe we trade him in July 2020. It's a big gamble either way. Sign him through arbitration and he flops, or non-tender and he has another great year elsewhere. Who knows at this point, but it may just be an outstanding move. He was exciting last year, more so in the second half, and we still lost 108 games. Without him, do we lose 112? He has had 2 very good seasons in seven years, 2016 (3.9 WAR) and 2019 (4.0). The defense can be good at times, and it can be lackadaisical. The 20 errors do not tell the story, but there were many balls he mishandled and mental mistakes. The defensive metrics do not favor him either, but not sure they have much merit. The Orioles are his third team. There are reasons why guys with lots of tools move around like he has, and sometimes it's things that aren't always public. We do not know what all goes into this decision, but to say it is simply 'tanking" or cost cutting seems simplistic to me. There is a reason why no one has taken him off our hands for any moderate return. If they sign Adeiny Hechevarria to play SS, maybe for $1-2 million. Or Jose Iglesias for a maybe twice that. We lose the offense Villar provided last year, but no guarantee we would get anything close to that output again for the arbitration figure he wants. I will wait to judge the move until after things settle. These are very intelligent people running the show. And yes, I will give Mr. Elias the benefit of the doubt that he and his team know what they are doing.

Bueno - seems like a good bit of effort in delivery. TJ surgery at Arizona State. Was their Friday starter though. Lots of injuries have led to very little experience. Some recoil and I don't love the finish at all. Topped out in SAL last year. Pass for me. Clay - I just watched some video, the slider flashes promise, and the hook is the get me over type and can get slurvey. Change has no depth and the FB was straight. Looks like there is more there, and seems to not get as much extension as he could. Stat wise, walk rate is 5.1 and H/9 is 8.7, 1.53 career WHIP, but K rate is 9.6 and does not give up many HR's (only 6 in 405 innings). Interesting under the radar guy.

Alemias seems interesting, maybe as a second pick. The shoulder would be concerning, but I like the profile. Here is a useful article on him. https://rumbunter.com/2018/01/24/pirate-prospect-watch-2018-stephen-alemais/

@Luke-OH What are your thoughts on Buddy Reed CF (Padres AA) and Jose Fermin SS (Indians A-)? For me, Reed fills the back up CF role and is a switch hitter with some offensive upside left due to his relative inexperience and constant swing changes in his 3.5 professional years. Every report I have read says he plays an excellent CF. I saw him play a lot at UF with Richie Martin. Premium athleticism, size and attitude. He may be a guy that just needs an organization change, and he is from Baltimore originally (not that it really has any bearing). Fermin is the son of Felix Fermin. Solid defensively according to one report I read in BA. Low A player with solid idea of the strike zone, but does not drive the ball much. Certainly should be over matched in a large role, but is he capable of filling a bench role? I would only consider him as a second round pick, but perhaps worth a flyer?

I think re-signing Mason Williams is a solid minor league depth move. I just hope he gets serious about his workouts this off-season, and comes into Spring in much better shape than he appeared to be a few months ago. Not too many major league center fielders with a belly. He's a local kid from West Orange HS here in Orlando, which has produced many pro players. I remember watching him play as a senior. He was quick twitch and could really run.

That’s fair, and I agree he would be overmatched for the most part. But there is a good amount of upside here. He is still raw, but he may just be on the verge of things. He may be a guy that at age 27 ends up a late bloomer like Aaron Hicks. If you have not yet done so, read the article above shared by @7Mo. The Orioles are looking for a back up CF, and he could fill that void. As far as being able to hit enough, no one knows long term. Would you take the production of what Martin did last year, but from a guy who will not need to start much? For $100,000, I think I would do so on a rebuilding team. I’ll take him over Dwight Smith Jr. and Stevie Wilkerson, and probably over DJ Stewart for now. If Santander and Mancini are in the corners, with Hays roaming CF, he seems like a pretty good fit for a bench OF. There may be other players out there who are better picks. But at first glance, for me, Buddy really stands out.

Some interesting talent this year. To me, at first glance, I like Buddy Reed. Excellent CF out of SD Padres organization, 2016 2nd round pick out of University of Florida. Played with Richie Martin. Super athletic, strong arm and 70 grade runner. He’s a switch hitter, and he’s had some ups and downs, but I think he just need a little more time. He grew up just outside Baltimore, and was supposedly an incredible hockey player, and a very talented soccer player. He went to an elite private school in Rhode Island for high school. He really could be an impact late bloomer as he did not play much baseball growing up. I watched him play a good bit here in Florida and I remember how impressed I was with his athleticism. I also remember moments where he was raw and inexperienced. He could be a steal, if our development minded staff can click with him. If nothing else, he would provide a great defensive CF to back up Hays while they work on his hitting. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/05/buddy-reed-interview-florida-mlb-draft.html

I guess that depends on whether they gather inventory and use it to trade for a TOR starter or other pieces. I suppose that remains to be seen. It pleases me that there is a long term plan for growth and sustainability.

I will not write off Torkelson, but Martin is my favorite position guy. I’m interested to see if Elias sticks with college guys at the top of the draft, or is willing to go with a HS player.

The same thing happened to me. lol

It’s a pretty good list when Grayson Rodriguez is listed at the bottom as a player of note and cannot crack the top 6. He certainly took huge steps forward as a pitcher in his first full season. Rutschman has no place in that list, honestly. But an interesting read nonetheless.

Being a catcher, each time he joins a new team there is an immediate need to learn the pitching staff. He needs to catch some sides to get a feel for things. He is likely going to miss out on some BP, or at least his side work, in favor of working with his pitchers. First pro summer, had a 6-8 week lay off, had a hectic schedule of travel on the awards circuit, media circus everywhere he goes, had mono, changed teams (and moved/packed/unpacked) three times in about 6 weeks, had to learn new pitchers and such...I think I will give the man a break if he hasn’t crushed right away at Delmarva. Just watch him play, seriously. This guy is really special in many ways.

Good read, thanks!

Some current and former players, even HOF’ers, actually don’t even like baseball. Some hate it, at least that is what they will say privately. I get what you’re saying, from the perspective of the player. But as a fan, the culture of the game is/was what made it special to me. It was far more entertaining when ignorance was bliss. We now know far too much, innocence lost. There is no...”Magic of Orioles Baseball.” Somewhere, the heart of Wild Bill Hagy is broken.

I am not a fan of changing the game to appeal to the NBA type fan with a short attention span. The current game is not the same as it was in the 1970-1980’s when I first loved and learned the game. But change is inevitable and I am not going to bemoan subtle changes. No pitch clocks, and no Texas style tie breakers in extra innings. I do like that the catcher cannot take 15 visits to the mound in a game as well. And the netting was a must. The fields have gotten smaller, the mound lower, the ball is juiced, modern hitter training has advanced exponentially, players are more physically fit, and there are more hanging sliders and curve balls than before (at least it seems that way.) The shift, although I hate it, I say leave it. Make the hitter adjust, which is what the game is all about, to me anyway. I’d like to see the mounds raised back up, just a bit. And raise the seams of the ball, so a breaking ball has more bite. I agree the current ball they use is just too hot. I also agree there is too many strike outs, but you cannot legislate players to make more contact. I like a 2-1 pitcher’s duel. I appreciate great defense, and the execution of the little things. I like stolen bases and the hit and run. I think triples are more exciting than most home runs. That said, the home run is king. I just would like to see less of them. Make it mean something. My goodness, Al Bumbry would average 20 homers a year with the current ball. I’d like to see pitchers pitch inside more. Hitters today take swings that no respectable pitcher used to allow. You dig in, you get knocked down. You dive in, you get knocked down. You take great big hacks, you might just wear one. Everything that has changed over the years benefits the hitter. Time to allow the pitcher to prosper some. I don’t really like the bat flips, but I don’t really care if they flip and take a look at a bomb they just hit. Especially in a big moment. If you hit a dinger, and you’re still down 10-3 in the 8th inning, no flips please. I can see some of what the former players are saying. I miss the strategy, and more so the culture of baseball of 30 years ago. Talking to some of the old guys, listening to their stories, it just takes me back. But those days are gone. It’s not a Field of Dreams anymore. It’s a field of people staring at their cell phones and data driven calculations. No more umpire vs. manager arguments to entertain us on occasion. No big rivalries anymore. The players all get along. It’s a neat and tidy package now. Too bad.

Well, no...but the goals are vastly different for Diaz. ?